Поток заявлений, которые делает в последние два дня Трамп по поводу Украины на первый взгляд выглядит парадоксальным.
С одной стороны, он говорит, что Зеленский готов на переговоры и «сделку», хотя сам Зеленский и члены его команды фактически прямым текстом заявляют, что против переговоров на данном этапе и вообще против скорейшего завершения войны, так как пока они считают позицию Украины слабой.
С другой стороны, Трамп грозит санкциями и прочими карами Путину, если тот не пройдёт на переговоры, хотя Путин регулярно заявляет, что на переговоры идти готов (при этом Трамп ему до сих пор так и не позвонил).
Здесь может быть два объяснения.
Первое - Трамп стал на позицию украинской власти и западной «партии войны», которые убеждают его вообще не идти сейчас на переговоры с Путиным, а резко усилить на него давление. В таком случае ни о каком завершении войны в ближайшее время речи идти не будет. Наоборот - вероятна ее эскалация.
Второе - Трамп по-прежнему хочет скорейшего завершения войны и готов лично провести переговоры с Путиным (судя по публикациям в американских СМИ), но, предварительно, пытается надавить на него, чтоб тот согласился просто на перемирие (прекращение огня по линии фронта) без дополнительных условий, которые выставляет сейчас Кремль (передача четырех областей, заключение мирного соглашения с признанием Украиной новых границ, сокращение ВСУ, никаких иностранных войск в Украине, стратегические соглашения по безопасности в Европе между РФ, США и НАТО и т.д.). Или, возможно, и с некоторыми дополнительными условиями, которые Трамп может посчитать выполнимыми (вывод ВСУ из Курской области, обещание не принимать Украину в НАТО, возможно, сокращение присутствия американских войск в Европе). Зеленскому же Трамп публично не угрожает, потому что, вероятно, считает, что убедить его принять соглашение о прекращении огня для Вашингтона не составит труда в любом случае. В целом же президент США, по распространённой в экспертных кругах версии, просто хочет как можно скорее прекратить огонь (с определенными гарантиями ее невозобновления в ближайшие годы), а что будет дальше - пусть уже Европа заботится.
Также публичное давление на РФ может иметь и пиар-значение: Трамп хочет, чтоб победителем выглядел он, а не Путин, когда война будет завершена на условиях прекращения огня по линии фронта с де-факто закреплением за Россией захваченных ею территорий (хотя формально, в таком случае, победителем будет Кремль, который сохранит за собой завоеванные земли).
Похожую тактику Трамп использовал и накануне соглашения о перемирии между Израилем и ХАМАС, когда публично угрожал хамасовцам, хотя как раз последние и так были не против перемирия, в отличие от Нетаньяху, на которого Трамп давил непублично. Но, по итогу, выглядело так, что президент США «принудил» ХАМАС к прекращению огня, что помогло израильскому премьеру «продать» сделку внутри страны, где против нее многие выступали.
К каким последствиям приведет подобная методика Трампа по войне в Украине - к ее завершению или к эскалации, пока неведомо.
Трамп заявил, что просил надавить на Путина Си Цзиньпина. Разговор между президентом РФ и лидером Китая состоялся вчера и там обсуждалась и Украина, и разговор Си с Трампом.
Но будет ли Пекин активно побуждать РФ идти навстречу пожеланиям Трампа и на компромиссы с ним - вопрос открытый. Особенно с учетом явного антикитайского крена новой американской администрации.
Единственный вывод по итогам разговора Путина и Си, который был озвучен публично, в изложении помощника президента РФ Ушакова звучал так: «отмечена готовность выстраивать отношения с США на взаимовыгодной и взаимоуважительной основе, если команда Трампа действительно проявит к этому встречный интерес».
То есть, готовность к диалогу с США есть, но есть и условия.
Что касается украинской власти, то там практически не скрывают, что надеются на срыв переговоров Трампа и Путина о завершении войны.
«После разговора с Путиным Трамп поймет, что с Россией путинских времен нет смысла о чем-то договариваться», - заявил советник главы Офиса президента Михаил Подоляк.
На это же рассчитывают и видные представители «партии войны» на Западе.
«Трамп позвонит Путину и скажет ему прекратить войну. Я думаю, Путин не согласится. После этого команда Трампа поймет, что нужно продемонстрировать силу и выложить все на стол», - заявил экс-спецпредставитель Госдепартамента США по вопросам Украины Курт Волкер.
Впрочем, «усиление давления на РФ и демонстрация силы Трампом» - только один из возможных сценариев в случае провала переговоров.
Может быть и другой вариант - Трамп, убедившись, что быстрых решений по Украине быть не может, а более активное вовлечение США в войну стоит дорого и создает большие риски, просто «умоет руки», прекратив заниматься украинскими делами и оказывать Киеву какую-либо помощь. В такое развитие событий пока мало кто верит, но его полностью исключать нельзя, в случае если Трампа с головой накроют проблемы на других направлениях. В том числе и внутри самой Америки.
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Зеленский в Давосе заявил, что Россия требовала от него уйти с поста в начале вторжения.
Ему задали вопрос о содержании Стамбульских переговоров весной 2022 года. Но Зеленский начал с более ранних попыток начать переговоры в конце февраля-начале марта.
"Кое-кто пришел в первые дни оккупации, кое-кто из Украины, они пришли с какими-то бумажками и передали мне ультиматум от Путина. Они сказали, что я должен отступить, они сменят меня на пророссийского Медведчука. Поэтому я больше не президент», - сообщил он вчера в Давосе.
Также среди российских условий было, что «весь Донбасс - это Россия, мы должны признать».
«Затем мы должны признать русский язык, проголосовать и изменить нашу Конституцию, чтобы мы имели нейтральный статус, уменьшить армию до 50 тысяч. Затем мы должны отдать все оружие, начиная от артиллерии, все, что до 20 км, мы должны разрушить и отдать им», - заявил Зеленский.
Он добавил, что "послал" этих людей. Затем, по его словам, "Беларусь хотела что-то организовать, о чем-то договариваться, но они снова выдвинули ультиматум" (здесь речь идет о переговорах в Беларуси, которые состоялись уже в первые дни войны - Ред.).
Затем Зеленский перешел к переговорам в Стамбуле.
"Потом в Турции они хотели организовать и президент Эрдоган просил меня: "Пожалуйста, они должны сесть поговорить". Я сказал: "Хорошо, если вы хотите, они будут говорить". Они пришли и снова выдвинули ультиматум. Поэтому мы не можем сказать, что у нас были какие-то переговоры, поскольку все три раза были ультиматумы от Путина", - сказал Зеленский.
Напомним, что в ноябре 2023 года нардеп Арахамия, представлявший Украину на Стамбульских переговорах, рассказывал, (https://t.me/stranaua/132927) что соглашение было практически готово, и главным его пунктом со стороны России был нейтралитет Украины. Но Украина вышла из сделки, поскольку ее не согласовал Запад в лице премьера Британии Джонсона. Он, со слов Арахамии, предложил "просто воевать".
Также бывшая замгоссекретаря Виктория Нуланд говорила, что Украина вышла из Стамбульских соглашений с РФ после консультаций с американцами.
Судя по опубликованным в западных СМИ документам по Стамбульским договоренностям, Россия была согласна в обмен на нейтральный статус вывести без боя войска со всех захваченных после 24.02.2022 года украинских территорий, кроме Донбасса (линию разграничения в Донецкой и Луганской областях должны были согласовать на личной встрече Путина и Зеленского, которая готовилась). При этом несогласованной оставалась часть вопросов, включая численность ВСУ, но по ним, судя по опубликованной переписке, шла дискуссия. Киев выслал встречные предложения по сокращению численности украинской армии.
Переговоры были прерваны ориентировочно в конце апреля-в начале/середине мая 2022 года.
Zelensky pours cold water on hopes Trump could strike peace deal with Putin - saying Ukraine will NEVER recognise occupied territories as Russian
Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine will never recognise occupied Ukrainian territories as being part of Russia, even if pressured to do so by allies, dampening hopes that Donald Trump may be able to strike a peace deal.
'No matter what anyone wants, even if all the allies in the world unite, we will never recognise the occupied territories [as part of Russia]. This is impossible,' the Ukrainian president emphasised.
'We will not legally recognise them. For us, they will always remain occupied territories until we liberate them.'
Trump, who took office for a second term on Monday and was last in power before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has repeatedly said he could end the war swiftly, without specifying how.
His newly-appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that ending the war was a priority for the president, but would only be possible if both sides make significant concessions.
'Anytime you bring an end to a conflict between two sides, neither of whom can achieve their maximum goals, each side is going to have to give up something,' he told CNN, adding that ultimately the decision would be down to the Ukrainians and Russians.
It comes after Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said today that Moscow sees a small window of opportunity to forge agreements with the new US administration.
'We cannot say anything today about the degree of the incoming administration's capacity to negotiate, but still, compared to the hopelessness in every aspect of the previous White House chief (Joe Biden), there is a window of opportunity today, albeit a small one,' Ryabkov said, according to Interfax.
Volodymyr Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine will never recognise occupied Ukrainian territories as being part of Russia
Donald Trump, who took office for a second term on Monday, has said he could end the war swiftly, without specifying how
'It's therefore important to understand with what and whom we will have to deal, how best to build relations with Washington, how best to maximise opportunities and minimise risks,' he said, speaking at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies, a think-tank in Moscow.
Trump warned on Tuesday that he would likely impose more sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate to end the nearly three-year-old conflict.
He gave no details on the possible additional sanctions on Russia, which is already under significant Western sanctions over the war.
The new president also issued a blow to the Kremlin on Tuesday, accusing Putin of 'destroying Russia' with his failed war as he urged him to 'make a deal' to end the conflict.
'He has to make a deal. I think he is destroying Russia by not making a deal,' Trump said in a stark warning to the dictator.
'I think Russia is going to be in big trouble,' he added, saying that Putin 'can't be thrilled that he's not doing so well.'
'I mean, he works hard, but most people thought the war would be over in about a week, and now it's been three years, right?'
The Russian economy was sinking, he went on, with inflation a major threat.
Putin, 72, earlier said he was ready to engage with Trump but still insisted on an outcome favouring Russia.
'We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict. The most important thing here is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis,' said the Russian ruler. An initial phone call is expected by Moscow to take place soon.
Trump said Zelensky was ready for a deal to halt the debilitating conflict, and the 78-year-old US leader said he planned to meet Putin with whom he had a 'great relationship' during his first term.
'We're going to try to do it as quickly as possible. You know, the war between Russia and Ukraine should never have started.'
Trump warned on Tuesday that he would likely impose more sanctions on Russia if President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate to end the nearly three-year-old conflict
After months of Ukraine occupying parts of Russia's Kursk region as it aims to improve its position in the event of talks, Zelensky stated that any dialogue could only go ahead with Kyiv in a position of strength.
'Putin cannot be treated as legitimate in this situation. He has violated everything. He must understand his transgression,' the Ukrainian president said today, adding that if Putin was 'approached as an equal – that would be a loss for Ukraine.'
But, he said, his government's top priority was to find a way to halt the war, which has claimed the lives of at least 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers, according to figures released by Ukraine in December.
'We must find all possible ways to end the hot phase of the war. This is the number one issue,' Zelensky said.
'There can be many talks, but the main goal is to stop the active phase. This is the first guarantee of security.'
Russia has occupied Crimea since its 2014 invasion of the territory. Months later it took large parts of the Donbas region, launching a was under the guise of a separatist uprising.
Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian forces have controlled large swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, since a surprise attack in August, Kyiv's forces occupy around 600 sq km of Russian territory.
The King who was 'euthanised' by his doctor: Inside the death of George V, the monarch who rebranded the Royal Family and died 89 years ago today
Queen Elizabeth's grandfather reigned for 26 years and reshaped the monarchy before he passed away on January 20, 1936.
Claims 50 years after his death revealed there may have been other factors at play during his final moments.
Back in 1986, it was claimed that King George V had been euthanised by his doctor, Lord Dawson, who died in 1945.
A 'mixture of morphine and cocaine was administered' in the form of an injection to the monarch who was on his deathbed, Andrew Morton reported in the Daily Mail in November 1986.
It was given by Lord Dawson with the approval of the King's wife, Queen Mary, and the Prince of Wales at the time, the Mail said.
The revelation came after Lord Dawson's biographer, Francis Watson, wrote an article about the incident in History Today that year.
It is thought the timing of the alleged euthanasia was partly to ensure the death would be printed on the morning front page of The Times, which was apparently the King's favourite newspaper.
Lord Dawson's medical notes detailed: 'The determination of the time of death of the King's body had another object in view, viz: The importance of the death receiving its first announcement in the morning papers, rather than the less appropriate field of the evening journals.'
King George V's coffin lying in state at Westminster Hall after his death in 1936
Newspaper front pages on January 21 announcing the death of George V
He explained how he asked his wife to tell The Times to pause publication of the next day's paper.
The doctor was the president of the Royal College of Physicians at the time.
'Technically, Lord Dawson could have been prosecuted but he only shortened the King's life by an hour or two. It wasn't a question of several days,' Mr Watson said in 1986.
The biographer added: 'He had the full support of the Royal Family who did not want the King to be in pain for longer than was necessary. They left it to Lord Dawson to judge the right moment to administer the injection.'
At the time, a former president of the Royal College of Physicians hit out at Lord Dawson's alleged decision and described it as 'evil'.
Sir Douglas Black said: 'I think he did something which, to me, is evil, in order that good should come of it.'
Meanwhile, Queen Elizabeth's press secretary said: 'Our comment is that we have no comment.'
Decades later, the claims resurfaced in a Channel 5 documentary, George V: The Tyrant King, which aired in August 2020.
King George V and his wife Queen Mary of Teck, who he married in 1893
George V and Queen Mary in a carriage to church in Balmoral with Princess Margaret
A depiction of King George V riding a horse
The television show revealed Lord Dawson's diary entries, which detailed how the doctor 'decided to determine the end'.
An entry read: 'At about 11 o'clock, it was evident that the last stage might endure for many hours. I therefore decided to determine the end and injected three-quarters gram of morphia [morphine] and shortly afterwards one gram of cocaine into the distended jugular vein.'
Royal expert and biographer Angela Levin explained in the programme: 'He also manipulated it so that he would die just before midnight so that his death would make the front page of The Times, which was the king's favourite paper.
'There's been this argument about whether it was murder of euthanasia. If you look at it objectively, it was a huge decision to make to kill a king without absolute authority.
'It's a very dark but interesting mystery,' she added.
But the doctor's family spoke out against the claims in 1986, the Mail reported at the time.
Lady Bowater, Lord Dawson's daughter, said: 'My father was devoted to his Sovereign and the King was equally devoted to him. He was more than just a patient - he was a family friend.'
Born June 3, 1865, to King Edward VII and Queen Alexandra, George V was the couple's second son and was not expected to become king. His older brother, Prince Albert Victor, suddenly passed away in 1892.
George married his late brother's fiancée, Princess Victoria Mary, in 1893. She went on to become Queen Mary of Teck.
The couple lived together at York Cottage in Sandringham and had six children together - Prince Edward, Prince Albert, Princess Mary, Prince Henry, Prince George and Prince John.
The Daily Mail's coverage of the claims in November 1986, written by Andrew Morton
George V and Queen Mary with their daughter, Princess Mary, who later became Princess Royal
George V and his wife with their eldest son, Edward VIII, who would later become King before abdicating
George was crowned King on June 22, 1911, following the death of his father in 1910.
He had a fierce temper and ruled harshly over his sons, once saying: 'My father was terrified of his mother, I was terrified of my father, and I am determined that my own children shall be terrified of me.'
George reigned during the First World War and, as anti-German sentiment built, he changed the family name from Saxe-Coburg-Gotha to the House of Windsor in 1917. The name still stands in today's monarchy.
He also introduced the annual Christmas speech tradition the Royal Family still continues today.
Sitting in a small room in Sandringham in 1932 that provided better sound quality and reportedly calmed the King's nerves, George V gave his first ever Christmas broadcast.
The Daily Mail's coverage of the momentous occasion at the time called it the 'world's most thrilling broadcast'.
_________________
С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Defence Secretary reveals Russian spy ship operating around UK waters
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UK monitors Russian spy ship, steps up undersea cable protection
LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Britain said it monitored a Russian spy ship in the English Channel in recent days and would strengthen its response to secret operations by Russian ships and aircraft in an effort to protect undersea cables.
Defence minister John Healey said Yantar, a Russian spy vessel used for intelligence and mapping critical infrastructure on the sea floor, entered British waters on Monday and the Royal Navy tracked it for two days until it entered Dutch waters.
Russia's embassy in London did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Worries over the potential sabotage of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines have been growing after a string of outages in the Baltic Sea following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
"We will not shy away from robust action to protect Britain," Healey said on Wednesday.
"We are strengthening our response to ensure that Russian ships and aircraft cannot operate in secrecy near UK or NATO territory."
Britain decided to send maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft to help NATO's efforts to protect cables in the Baltic Sea, Healey announced, adding that it would also deploy an advanced AI system to help safeguard undersea infrastructure.
Healey said Yantar had already been caught in British waters in November when it loitered over cables.
He told parliament that given Yantar's activities he had changed the rules of engagement in order to allow Royal Navy ships to get closer and better track it, and he had also authorised the surfacing of a Royal Navy submarine close to Yantar as a deterrent measure.
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Herne The UK’s Strategic Move to Defend Underwater Infrastructure Against Growing Threats
Цитата:
UK warns Putin after Russian spy ship returns to British waters
The Royal Navy has been monitoring a Russian spy ship after it entered British waters earlier this week, the defence secretary has told MPs.
John Healey said the vessel, Yantar, was used for gathering intelligence and mapping the UK's critical underwater infrastructure.
He said the incident was "another example of growing Russian aggression".
Healey added: "I also wanted President Putin to hear this message: we see you, we know what you're doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country."
Russia describes Yantar as an oceanic research vessel and it is operated by the country's Ministry of Defence.
Western nations have often tracked the ship operating in European waters and they suspect part of its mission has been to map undersea cables.
They also believe Russia has been stepping up this activity since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
As well as surveillance equipment the ship can operate submersible drones capable of reaching the ocean floor.
Undersea infrastructure is crucial for energy supply through power cables and pipelines, while more than 95% of internet traffic is also secured via undersea cables.
Healey said Yantar was currently in the North Sea, after passing through UK waters and being detected 45 miles off the British coast in the English Channel on Monday.
"For the last two days the Royal Navy has deployed HMS Somerset and HMS Tyne to monitor the vessel every minute through our waters," he said.
"I changed the Royal Navy's rules of engagement so that our warships can get closer and better track the Yantar. So far, the ship has complied with international rules of navigation."
The defence secretary said it was the second time the vessel had entered British waters in recent months, with Yantar also detected "loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure" in November.
He said a Royal Navy submarine had been authorised to surface close to Yantar "strictly as a deterrent measure" and "to make clear that we have been covertly monitoring its every move".
"The ship then left UK waters without further loitering and sailed down to the Mediterranean," he added.
Healey said the government was strengthening its response to Russian naval activity with its Nato allies.
He said the Royal Air Force would provide surveillance aircraft to join a Nato deployment to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
It comes after an undersea cable between Estonia and Finland was damaged in December, with Finnish police investigating whether a Russian ship was involved.
Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said the Conservative Party stood "shoulder to shoulder" with the government's approach and its "transparency" over the Russian naval threat.
He also welcomed the change to the Royal Navy's rules of engagement, adding: "This sends a powerful signal to Putin that we will not be intimidated and that if his aim is to keep pushing the boundaries of malign activity in our waters, and those proximate to us, we will respond."
Cartlidge said the Russian activity showed why defence spending needed to be increased as soon as possible.
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Russian 'spy ship' fled UK waters after Royal Navy submarine surfaced beside it without warning, minister reveals as he tells Putin: 'We see you'
A Russian spy ship fled UK territorial waters after a Royal Navy submarine surfaced next to it in a show of force, The Defence Secretary revealed today.
John Healey told MPs he approved a mission targeting the Yantar, saying it was 'loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure' at the time.
The vessel legged it to the Mediterranean, followed by surface vessels and RAF aircraft after being spooked by the sub in the North Sea in November.
But it is currently making the return journey through the English Channel, shadowed again by Navy warships, the Commons was told.
It is the latest incident in which Russian vessels have been accused of shady behaviour.
Almost 200 RN sailors were recalled on Christmas Day so they could be deployed to shadow Russian warships spotted in the North Sea and English Channel.
Frigate HMS Somerset set sail on Friday December 27, to keep a watch on the corvette RFS Soobrazitelny and two support vessels, MV Sparta II and MV General Skobelev for almost 500 miles.
Mr Healey told MPs today: 'I also wanted President Putin to hear this message: we see you, we know what you're doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country.'
John Healey told MPs he approved a mission targeting the Yantar, saying it was 'loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure' at the time.
The vessel legged it to the Mediterranean, followed by surface vessels and RAF aircraft after being spooked by the sub in the North Sea in November. But it is currently making the return journey through the English Channel, shadowed again by Navy warships (pictured), the Commons was told.
Mr Healey told MPs today: 'I also wanted President Putin to hear this message: we see you, we know what you're doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country.'
'It was detected loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure. To deter any potential threat, I took measured steps then as part of a clear direct response to the Russian vessel.
'RAF maritime patrol aircraft alongside HMS Cattistock, HMS Tyne and RFA Proteus were deployed to shadow Yantar's every movement.
'Today, I also wanted to confirm to the House that I authorised a Royal Navy submarine, strictly as a deterrent measure, to surface close to Yantar to make clear that we had been covertly monitoring its every move.
'The ship then left UK waters without further loitering and sailed down to the Mediterranean.'
He added: 'Let me be clear, this is a Russian spy ship used for gathering intelligence and mapping the UK's critical underwater infrastructure.
'Yantar entered the UK exclusive economic zone about 45 miles off the British coast on Monday.
'For the last two days the Royal Navy has deployed HMS Somerset and HMS Tyne to monitor the vessel every minute through our waters.'
Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said he supported the Government's openness over how it was tackling the Russian naval threat.
Mr Cartlidge said the Conservative opposition stood 'shoulder to shoulder' with Labour over their approach.
He said: 'We welcome that transparency because it is critical for our war readiness … that as far as we are able, and without compromising our national security and operational security, we tell the British public the truth about the serious nature of the Russian threat and what that will inevitably mean for public expenditure on defence.
'I specifically welcome the change to the Royal Navy's rules of engagement. This sends a powerful signal to Putin that we will not be intimidated and that if his aim is to keep pushing the boundaries of malign activity in our waters, and those proximate to us, we will respond.'
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Royal Navy tracks Russian spy ship in English Channel as John Healey warns Putin: ‘We see you’
Addressing the House of Commons, defence secretary said the spy ship is currently in the North Sea having passed through British waters
A Russian spy ship is being tracked by the Royal Navy after sailing through the English Channel, John Healey revealed on Wednesday, issuing a stark warning to Vladimir Putin that the government is watching Russian activity in UK waters.
“We see you”, the defence secretary warned, promising robust action to protect Britain.
The ship, Yantar, is currently in the North Sea having passed through British waters. Mr Healey said this is the second time the Russian spy vessel had entered UK waters in recent months, noting the ship was also closely watched in November.
“Let me be clear, this is a Russian spy ship used for gathering intelligence and mapping the UK’s critical underwater infrastructure”, the defence secretary warned.
In November, the government authorised a Royal Navy submarine to surface close to Yantar to “make clear that we had been covertly monitoring its every move”, Mr Healey said.
HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters (Royal NavyPA) (PA Media)
Addressing the House of Commons on Wednesday, he said: “Yantar entered the UK exclusive economic zone about 45 miles off the British coast on Monday. For the last two days the Royal Navy has deployed HMS Somerset and HMS Tyne to monitor the vessel every minute through our waters.
“I changed the Royal Navy’s rules of engagement so that our warships can get closer and better track the Yantar. So far, the ship has complied with international rules of navigation.”
Referring to the incident in November, Mr Healey said: “It was detected loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure. To deter any potential threat, I took measured steps then as part of a clear direct response to the Russian vessel.
“RAF maritime patrol aircraft alongside HMS Cattistock, HMS Tyne and RFA Proteus were deployed to shadow Yantar’s every movement.
“Today, I also wanted to confirm to the House that I authorised a Royal Navy submarine, strictly as a deterrent measure, to surface close to Yantar to make clear that we had been covertly monitoring its every move. The ship then left UK waters without further loitering and sailed down to the Mediterranean.”
He added: “I also wanted President Putin to hear this message: we see you, we know what you’re doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country.”
Mr Healey told the Commons that Russia is the biggest external threat to Britain, warning that aggression from Putin “will not be tolerated at home or in Ukraine”.
The defence secretary said Russia was “dangerous but fundamentally weak”, as he referenced the casualties the country had suffered during the war in Ukraine and its decision to draft in troops from North Korea.
Defence Secretary John Healey said a submarine had been ordered to surface near the Yantar (Jordan Pettitt/PA) (PA Wire)
“Russia remains the most pressing and immediate threat to Britain, and I want to assure the House and the British people that any threat will be met with strength and resolve.”
Mr Healey said P8 Poseidon and Rivet Joint aircraft would join the Nato operation to protect undersea cabling in the Baltic Sea. RFA Proteus has also been deployed to monitor “offshore infrastructure”.
He added: “Russian aggression will not be tolerated at home or in Ukraine. It’s why one of the first acts of this Government was for the Prime Minister to launch the strategic defence review. It’s why the government has increased defence spending next year by almost £3bn and why we will set a path to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP in the spring.
“This new era of the threat demands a new era for defence. Change is essential, not optional, and the government is determined to meet the challenge, determined to deliver for defence.
“We will protect the homeland and our critical national infrastructure, and we will make Britain secure at home and strong abroad.”
His remarks come a week after Sir Keir Starmer declared Putin’s invasion of Ukraine a “monumental strategic failure”, as he travelled to Kyiv to sign a new long-term partnership deal with Volodymyr Zelensky.
The prime minister visited Ukraine for the first time since entering No 10 just days before Donald Trump returned to the White House, potentially signalling a shift in US support for Ukraine’s war effort in favour of a push for a peace deal.
The UK and Ukraine signed a 100-year partnership, which includes defence and scientific collaboration but will also forge new community links between the UK and Ukraine.Sir Keir said the agreement, which will bolster military collaboration on maritime security and will bring together experts in areas including drone technology, showed Putin’s attempts to pull Ukraine away from the West had backfired.
Responding to the defence secretary’s statement, his opposite number James Cartlidge said the Conservative party stood “shoulder to shoulder” with Labour over their approach, welcoming the government’s openness over how it was tackling the Russian naval threat.
“We welcome that transparency because it is critical for our war readiness … that as far as we are able, and without compromising our national security and operational security, we tell the British public the truth about the serious nature of the Russian threat and what that will inevitably mean for public expenditure on defence”, he said.
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Estonia plans to build new 'environmentally friendly' icebreaker with Finland
Estonia plans to build a new icebreaker in collaboration with Finland in the near future. The icebreaker Tarmo will be retired in three years, and a new ship is critically needed.
"The risks we currently see at sea, related to our maritime infrastructure, create a broader need for enhanced capabilities to conduct various operations at sea. This isn't just about icebreaking; we're also talking about deploying different devices, improving our limited oil spill response capability, and supporting naval operations," Minister of Infrastructure Vladimir Svet (SDE) told Tuesday's "Aktuaalne kaamera."
Despite increasingly mild winters, maintaining three ships in readiness costs the state €8 million annually. When ice forms, fuel expenses add approximately €1 million.
The estimated cost of the new icebreaker is €120 million, half of which is expected to come from the European Union's Connecting Europe Facility, with the rest to be sourced from the state budget. There is currently no contingency plan if the funding application fails.
"Under this program, the construction of new icebreakers and the improvement of existing ones have already been funded in Finland and Sweden. So I am very optimistic about this project — it perfectly fits the criteria for enhancing icebreaking capabilities," said State Fleet Director Andres Laasma.
"Of course, if we do not receive this funding, we will have to consider other options. Building the ship entirely with state funds would be very expensive and quite challenging," Svet admitted.
Tarmo was built in Finland, and the new icebreaker is also likely to be constructed with the help of Estonia's northern neighbors. However, the new ship must be significantly more environmentally friendly and economical. Tarmo currently consumes an average of two tons of fuel per hour at full power.
"Naturally, we are planning the new ship to run on alternative fuels. Whether it will use methanol or HVO-type fuel will be determined during the design phase. But yes, it will be very environmentally friendly. Whether we can achieve zero emissions with this project remains uncertain, but we are certainly working toward that goal," Laasma said.
The state hopes to clarify the funding situation for the new icebreaker by the end of summer.
Фашизм часто рядится в разные одежды, бывает фашизм и таким:
Цитата:
Intelligence rather than parents' background determines success in Estonia
In Estonia, a person's success in life primarily depends on their intelligence and mental abilities, while the influence of parental background and environmental factors plays a significantly smaller role, according to a doctoral dissertation defended at the University of Tartu.
The age-old question remains: what has a greater influence on a person — genes or the environment they live in? Kätlin Anni's doctoral dissertation, which sought to answer this question, consisted of several parts. In the first part, she focused on studying the connections between intelligence and socioeconomic factors, using the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS). In the second part, she examined the applicability of this scale to the Estonian population. Finally, she explored data collected by the Estonian Biobank to investigate how specific personality traits correlate with various professions.
The Wechsler Intelligence Scale, developed by David Wechsler, is designed to measure intelligence in children and adults. It includes tasks of varying difficulty that progressively become more challenging, aiming to evaluate an individual's performance across different domains of mental ability. The subtests are categorized into two groups: verbal ability and performance-based tests. Completing the test typically takes two to three hours and it is mainly used by clinical psychologists in their work.
For her dissertation, Anni completed the Estonian adaptation of the Wechsler scale. She then examined the relationship between individuals' mental abilities, occupational status and educational attainment, while also assessing the influence of parental background. This research topic has been widely studied internationally, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom, where larger datasets have been collected. As larger datasets generally yield more reliable conclusions, Anni analyzed data from individuals in Estonia who had completed the Wechsler test over the years. She ensured the sample reflected the structure of Estonia's population to allow broader generalizations. A short survey accompanying the test also gathered background information, such as parental education levels.
"Our findings were quite similar to those observed elsewhere. The strongest connection between a person's educational attainment and occupational status is with their own intelligence or mental abilities. While parental education or background does influence a child's success in life, its effect is significantly smaller than that of the individual's own intelligence," Anni explained. Additionally, the study revealed that verbal abilities had a stronger correlation with educational and occupational success than visual-spatial skills, working memory or processing speed.
Anni noted that the effect of parental background was partially mediated by the individual's intelligence. This could have a genetic basis, as people inherit certain genes from their parents that influence mental abilities, which are linked to educational and professional achievements. However, environmental aspects could also play a role. For instance, previous studies have shown that the number of books at home and the extent to which parents engage with their children can impact cognitive development.
Still, individual characteristics, shaped by both genetic and environmental factors, play the most significant role. "In Estonia, success in life is not determined solely by how successful a child's parents are. While parental influence matters, it is not the most critical factor here. In other societies, parental background may have a much greater impact," she added.
In the second part of her research, Anni delved deeper into the psychometric properties of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, examining how it functions within the Estonian population. She assessed whether the test measures mental abilities comparably across different groups, such as men and women, various age groups and individuals with different education levels.
"We found that gender and age did not affect the structure of mental abilities measured by the test, meaning that groups can be reliably compared," she said. However, education levels presented a different result. "For education, there are indications that certain narrower abilities group differently in lower education levels compared to higher ones. This should be considered in future studies when interpreting intelligence test results," Anni suggested. Education likely affects specific abilities, such as verbal reasoning or mathematical problem-solving.
In the third part of her dissertation, Anni leveraged personality data from the Estonian Biobank. "Having already examined how psychological traits influence socioeconomic decisions, education and occupational status, we decided to explore how personality traits relate to the professions people choose," she explained.
For this, she used data from a large personality study within the Biobank, which is based on the Five-Factor Model. Widely used in psychology, this model describes personality across five dimensions: openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness and neuroticism.
The findings showed that professions with higher average scores in traits like extraversion and conscientiousness tended to attract individuals with similar personalities. For example, sales roles often require high extraversion, whereas creative professions or research positions are associated with greater openness to experience. On the other hand, some professions did not depend as heavily on specific personality traits. For instance, writers varied widely in their levels of extraversion.
Anni also noted that some professions might shape individuals over time. "While earlier studies suggest this effect is relatively small, people are often chosen for jobs based on their personality traits or select professions that align with their interests. A job might slightly influence someone's personality, but not drastically," she said.
Anni mapped the personality profiles of 263 professions, with results generally aligning with expectations based on job requirements. For instance, creative roles and researchers scored higher in openness, while leadership roles and pilots showed lower levels of neuroticism. Her research team also developed a web application where people could test which professions their personalities most closely matched.
Public interest in the application was overwhelming. "We were surprised by the huge demand — it exceeded our expectations. The IT team had to significantly increase its capacity," she said. The language options for the test have also expanded, with Russian now among the available choices.
Inside Queen Victoria's scandalous relationship with servant John Brown who replaced her beloved husband until her death 124 years ago today
After Queen Victoria's beloved husband passed away in 1861, the monarch was bereft with grief.
The void Prince Albert left was soon filled, however, by an unexpected figure which shocked courtiers and her family.
John Brown, a Scottish gillie who had previously accompanied Victoria when horse riding at Balmoral before she was widowed, managed to break through societal boundaries and befriend the Queen.
Victoria, who was known to be difficult and snobbish, was unexpectedly taken by the 'refreshingly different' and 'masculine' servant, Tom Quinn wrote in his book, Scandals of the Royal Palaces.
John was often blunt towards the Queen and would even lose his temper with her. As such, he behaved towards her in ways others usually would not.
Victoria came to see the strapping servant as Albert's 'replacement', Mr Quinn detailed.
The monarch thought so highly of John that she even had precious mementoes of him placed in her coffin after she passed away - 124 years ago today - on January 22, 1901.
Here MailOnline looks into Victoria's relationship with John Brown and how he managed to fill the space in her heart that Albert left.
Scottish gillie John Brown with Queen Victoria mounted on a horse
Queen Victoria's coffin being carried into St George's Chapel 124 years ago
After Queen Victoria passed away in 1901, items relating to her beloved servant were placed in her coffin, by her request.
She wore John Brown's mother's wedding ring on her right hand and held a photograph of him in her left.
There was also a lock of the Scotsman's hair and some of his letters he had written to her.
The unexpected friendship began when Victoria and Albert first leased Balmoral in 1848 and John worked as a gillie - an outdoor servant.
John became an increasingly important part of Victoria's life after her husband passed away.
He was even present during an attempted attack against the monarch in 1872. He spotted Arthur O'Connor lurking with a shotgun near Buckingham Palace while Victoria rode in a carriage.
The servant managed to intervene and stop 17-year-old O'Connor from causing any harm.
This event only furthered John's presence in Victoria's life and he was awarded the Devoted Service Medal.
His personality charmed her as well as him possessing values that were just as 'traditional' as Albert's, Mr Quinn wrote.
John accompanying Victoria and her daughter, Princess Louise, at Balmoral
John Brown photographed as he poses in a kilt, with ceremonial pistols on his hip
John Brown (seen centre in a kilt) standing next to Queen Victoria's carriage as she prepares to step off it at Windsor to review 52,000 volunteers, 1881. To the left is her son, the future King Edward VII
John would treat Victoria in ways other people would never do and was often blunt towards her.
'Brown often treated her with disdain; he would scold her and lose his temper and she loved it,' Mr Quinn revealed in his book.
The Scottish servant wore full Highland dress, after Victoria insisted on it, and was often seen in photographs wearing a kilt and full-length kilt socks.
The relationship developed so much that Victoria even began to see the servant as her late husband.
She was convinced 'he was a human figure in which the spirit of her late husband had taken up residence,' the author wrote.
It was also claimed that John was sleeping in a room adjoining the Queen's bedroom.
John even got away with joking around and teasing Victoria, which only made her more fond of him.
Some senior figures were willing to resign over the pair but if anyone expressed views against their unlikely companionship, the monarch would rage against them.
Queen Victoria mounted on her horse while her beloved servant stands nearby
Dame Judi Dench as Queen Victoria and Billy Connolly as John Brown in the 1997 drama Mrs Brown
Victoria would respond to any warnings about the relationship being inappropriate with anger and would purposely have John accompany her.
She did, however, listen to the advice of courtiers when it came to the publication of a book about her feelings towards John.
According to Mr Quinn, who described it as a 'great love letter to Brown', its contents shocked her family and advisors and in the end it was not published.
The exact nature of their relationship has always been subject to speculation, though never officially confirmed.
In 1885, it was claimed that Victoria's chaplain, Reverend Norman Macleod, had made a startling revelation on his deathbed about the pair.
He claimed that he presided over the marriage of Victoria and Mr Brown at Crathie Kirk - where Princess Anne and Sir Timothy Laurence would wed a century later - in Scotland.
The alleged marriage of a monarch to a servant has been disputed but some historians, such as biographer A.N. Wilson, believe the ceremony did take place.
The strapping Scottish gillie, John Brown, photographed
The grave of Queen Victoria's faithful servant John Brown, at Crathie Kirkyard near Balmoral
When John passed away in March 1883 after falling ill with an infection, the monarch was devastated.
She was already addicted to opium, according to Mr Quinn, but after her loyal servant's death became even more dependent on the drug.
John was buried in Crathie Kirkyard and his tombstone included a touching tribute from Victoria.
It read: 'This stone is erected in affectionate and grateful remembrance of John Brown, the devoted and faithful personal attendant and beloved friend of Queen Victoria in whose service he had been for 34 years.'
_________________
С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Если бы наши Уважаемые коллеги могли ознакомится с материалами скандинавских СМИ, они бы без сомнения обнаружили, что кабели рвали почти каждый год и прежде никто не требовал морской блокады России.
Прочитав многочисленные материалы, наши Уважаемые коллеги без труда заметили бы, что скандинавов и европейцев, на самом деле, вообще не интересует кто и зачем порвал их кабели.
Все в выборе уже определились, выбором объединились и теперь жаждут с Россией победоносной войны.
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Цитата:
Ylen tiedot: Eagle S:n tutkinnassa ei ole näyttöä tahallisuudesta, mutta poliittinen johto ei silti usko sattumaan
Presidentti Stubb sanoi Bloombergille tutkinnan olevan kesken eikä kommentoi, onko sabotaasista todisteita.
Eagle S:n ja kaapelirikkojen tutkinta on jatkunut neljä viikkoa. Teon tahallisuudesta ei Ylen tietojen mukaan ole löytynyt näyttöä.
Samaan aikaan Naton valvontaoperaatio Itämerellä jatkuu.
Naton vahtivuorossa olevat alukset sekä eri Itämeren maiden lähettämät laivat sekä muut valvontakeinot ovat käytössä toista viikkoa, jotta mahdolliset uudet merenpohjan rakenteiden vauriot estettäisiin.
Kaapeleita on katkennut reilun vuoden aikana kolmasti, kun laivat ovat laahanneet ankkureitaan meren pohjassa.
Myös Suomen merivoimien aluksia liittyy pian Naton operaatioon viikoiksi ja kuukausiksi, merivoimat kertoi tänään.
Voiko ankkuria laahata perässä kymmeniä kilometrejä huomaamattaan?
– No, tietysti näin ihan maalaisjärjelläkin se tuntuu aika epätodennäköiseltä vaihtoehdolta, Merivoimien operaatiopäällikkö Marko Laaksonen sanoo.
– Mutta se voi olla vahinko tai tahallinen teko, siihen emme pysty ottamaan tietenkään kantaa, Laaksonen sanoo.
Viranomaisten näkemykset hajoavat
Viranomaisten näkemykset siitä, mitä johtopäätöksiä tapahtuneesta kannattaa tehdä, näyttävät hajoavan.
Ylen tietojen mukaan suojelupoliisi (supo) olisi arvioinut, ettei mikään osoita tekojen olevan tahallisia. Supo on tuonut kantansa esiin palavereissa, joissa paikalla on ollut valtiojohtoa ja muita viranomaisia.
The Washington Post uutisoi viikonloppuna yhdysvaltalaisiin ja eurooppalaisiin tiedustelupalveluihin viitaten, että mikään ei osoita, että laivat olisivat rikkoneet merenpohjan rakenteita tarkoituksella tai Venäjän pyynnöstä.
Yle ei toistaiseksi ole tavoittanut Supoa kommentoimaan. Yle ei ole saanut varmistettua, onko tiedustelupalvelun näkemys, että teon takana ei olisi ulkoinen taho, esimerkiksi Venäjä.
Tiistaina supo ilmoitti, ettei se kommentoi keskeneräistä tutkintaa.
Helsingin Sanomat uutisoi eilen, että supolla olisi vahva näkemys, ettei kaapelirikkojen takana olisi ollut Venäjä tai muu valtio, vaan kyseessä oli onnettomuus.
Muiden viranomaisten näkemys on, että tutkintaa jatketaan eikä ole aika tehdä johtopäätöksiä siitä, mikä lopulta oli teon luonne.
Tutkintaa johtava keskusrikospoliisin (KRP) rikosylikomisario Risto Lohi sanoi Ylelle tiistaina, että tutkinta on kesken eikä johtopäätösten aika ole vielä.
Tapahtunutta voi olla vaikea todistaa
Ylen tietojen mukaan Suomen ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan johdossa ajatellaan yhä, että kaapelirikkojen sarja Itämerellä ei ole sattumaa. Samalle lähteet arvioivat, että tätä voi olla mahdoton todistaa.
Valtiojohto ei ole esittänyt julkisesti arveluita, kuka teon takana on tai ei ole.
– Jos pystymme selkeästi todentamaan, että kyseessä on sabotaasi ja sen taustalla on joku valtiollinen tekijä, tulemme sen aivan varmasti attribuoimaan ja heti, tasavallan presidentti Alexander Stubb sanoi 27. joulukuuta.
Ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan johdosta ei ole päivällä vastattu kommenttipyyntöihin.
Presidentti Stubb sanoi tänään Bloombergin haastattelussa Davosissa, että yleensä on kolme vaihtoehtoa: sabotaasi, erehdys ja osaamattomuus.
Kysymykseen, onko sabotaasista todisteita, Stubb vastaa:
– Tutkinta on yhä meneillään, emmekä voi ottaa siihen kantaa. Mutta itse asiassa sillä ei ole väliä, kuka sen teki. Tärkeintä on pystyä estämään se. Ja jos ei pystytä estämään, se voidaan korjata nopeasti.
Ruotsin yleisradioyhtiö SVT uutisoi tänään, että Ruotsi ei usko vahinkoon. Maan puolustusministeri Pål Jonson sanoi, ettei Venäjän osuutta voida sulkea pois.
Sekä viranomaislähteet että ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan lähteet sanovat, että missään vaiheessa tutkintaa ei ole ollut oletusta, että tutkinnassa löytyisi aukottomia todisteita esimerkiksi vieraan valtion mahdollisesta osallisuudesta.
Poliisin, Rajavartiolaitoksen, Tullin ja liikenneviranomaisten tutkinta ja selvitykset ovat keskittyneet itse aluksen ympärille.
Suojelupoliisi taas selvittää tapahtunutta tiedustelutietojen avulla.
Korkea virkamieslähde arvioi, että vaikka tutkinnassa ei löytyisi merkkejä tahallisuudesta, kyse on joka tapauksessa Venäjän varjolaivastosta, joka vahinkoja aiheuttaa.
Myös eri virkamieslähteissä tahallisuutta ja hybridioperaatiota pidetään mahdollisina.
Hybridioperaatioissa olennaista on kiistettävyys ja se, että tekijä tuskin jää kiinni, tutkinnassa tai tiedustelulla, korkeat viranomaislähteet muistuttavat.
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KRP Ylelle: Kun poliisi kysyi Eagle S:n miehistöltä ankkurista, vastaus herätti epäilyn tahallisuudesta
KRP kertoo Ylelle uutta tietoa joulupäivän kaapelivaurion tutkinnasta.
Keskusrikospoliisi kertoo Ylelle, ettei Eagle S -alus toiminut normaalilla tavalla sen jälkeen, kun se epäillysti katkaisi merenalaiset kaapelit Suomenlahdella.
Tutkinnan yleisjohtaja, rikosylikomisario Risto Lohi sanoo poliisin selvittävän nyt, olisiko miehistön pitänyt huomata ja reagoida siihen, että ankkuri roikkui laivan ulkopuolella lähes sadan kilometrin matkan ajan.
Lohen mukaan alus ei ole toiminut ”niin kuin normaalisti tuollaisessa tilanteessa oletettaisiin toimivan”.
Poliisi epäilee, että aluksen ankkuri on irronnut ketjusta siinä vaiheessa, kun Suomen viranomaiset ovat kehottaneet säiliöaluksen miehistöä nostamaan perässä roikkuvan ankkurin ylös.
Ankkuri putosi laivan liikkuessa.
– Kun alusta on lähestytty ankkurin tilasta, olemme saaneet vastauksen, joka on vähän epätyydyttävä tapahtumien kulkuun liittyen. Tämä herättää epäilykset tietoisesta toiminnasta.
Lohen mukaan KRP epäilee tällä hetkellä tahallisuutta, mutta sen arviointi kesken. Hän ei kerro, onko esimerkiksi epäiltyjen viestinnästä löydetty merkkejä, jotka viittaavat teon tahallisuuteen.
KRP: Viranomaisilla ei eriäiviä käsityksiä tutkinnasta
Risto Lohi ei ota kantaa viime päivinä julkisuudessa liikkuneisiin tietoihin, joiden mukaan kaapelivaurio ei aiheutunut tahallisesta teosta, eikä kyse olisi Venäjän sabotaasista. Tästä kertoi Suomessa Helsingin Sanomat.
– Muilta osin on ennenaikaista ottaa vielä kantaa, mitä taustalla on, ja onko siellä ollut jotain erityisiä toimijoita.
Lohen mielestä Suomen viranomaisilla ei ole eriäviä käsityksiä tapauksen taustoista.
– Viranomaiset ovat tehneet tiivistä yhteistyötä. Emme halua ottaa kantaa, mikä on ollut tapahtumien todellisena syynä, vaan esitutkinta on kesken ja johtopäätökset tehdään sitten, kun tutkintatoimenpiteet on saatu päätökseen.
Hän ei kommentoi, miten todennäköisesti valtiollisen toimijan osallisuus saataisiin selville esitutkinnan keinoin.
Paikkatutkinta valmis
KRP kertoo saaneensa paikkatutkinnan Eagle S -säiliöaluksella pääosin valmiiksi.
Esitutkinnan kannalta vaadittavat takavarikot on suoritettu ja kaapelivauriokohtien vedenalainen tutkinta on pitkälti saatu päätettyä. Esitutkinta jatkuu muilta osin.
Epäiltyinä olevien miehistön jäsenten kuulustelut jatkuvat edelleen ja takavarikoidun materiaalin läpikäyminen on kesken.
Rikosnimikkeinä ovat törkeä tuhotyö ja törkeä tietoliikenteen häirintä.
Poliisi arvioi, että esitutkinta tulee jatkumaan kuukausia.
Tällä hetkellä alus on takavarikossa ja poliisilla on yhdeksän epäiltyä. Heidät on määrätty matkustuskieltoon.
Alkuviikon aikana säiliöaluksella on vaihdettu miehistöä. Vaihdot ovat koskeneet niitä henkilöitä, jotka eivät ole matkustuskiellossa.
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Analyysi: Stubb totesi, etteivät kaapelirikot voi olla vahinko – supon tiedot viittaavat päinvastaiseen
Supo ja KRP tuottavat tietoa erilaisiin tarkoituksiin, ja valtionjohto käyttää tietoa haluamallaan tavalla. Nyt ulostulot vaikuttavat sekavilta, kirjoittaa rikos- ja oikeustoimittaja Tuomas Rimpiläinen.
Uskooko Suomi, että Venäjä on syyllinen Itämeren putki- ja kaapelirikkoihin? Viime viikkoina julki tulleet tiedot asiasta synnyttävät ristiriitaisen kuvan Suomen viranomaisten ja valtiojohdon käsityksistä.
Sunnuntaina Washington Post uutisoi, että Suomen tiedusteluviranomaiset olisivat kansainvälisten yhteistyökumppaniensa kanssa päätyneet siihen, että Eagle S -aluksen joulupäivänä aiheuttama kaapelivaurio olisi ollut vahinko.
Keskusrikospoliisin rikoskomisario Sami Liimatainen kommentoi tietoja tuoreeltaan toteamalla, että poliisi jättää ulkomaisten lehtien tiedot omaan arvoonsa.
Tiistaina puolestaan Helsingin Sanomat uutisoi,että KRP ei ole saanut näyttöä siitä, että Eagle S olisi rikkonut kaapeleita tahallaan. Kahden Helsingin Sanomille puhuneen lähteen mukaan suojelupoliisilla on ”vahva näkemys” siitä, että kyseessä on onnettomuus.
Ylen tietojen mukaan supo on tuonut valtiojohdolle esiin ainakin sen, että näyttöä tahallisuudesta ei ole saatu.
Tasavallan presidentti Alexander Stubb on kuitenkin ehtinyt jo ottaa asiaan kantaa joulun välipäivinä. Tuolloin hän totesi, että kolme vastaavaa tapausta vuoden sisällä ei voi olla sattumaa.
Presidentin lausunto näyttää olevan ristiriidassa ainakin supon käsityksen kanssa. Toisaalta Stubbin lausuntoa voi tulkita niinkin, että Venäjää voi pitää vastuullisena myös merellä tapahtuneista vahingoista.
Kun Venäjä tietoisesti kiertää pakotteita käyttämällä huonokuntoisia aluksia ja Itämeren liikenteeseen tottumattomia miehistöjä, se on myös vastuussa alusten aiheuttamista vahingoista ja niitä voi pitää vähintäänkin törkeän välinpitämättömyyden seurauksena.
Esitutkinnassa tekoja tutkitaan törkeinä tuhotöinä. Tämän rikosnimikkeen voi täyttää myös tuottamuksellinen teko eli käytännössä huolimattomuus.
Ylelle keskiviikkona puhuneet lähteet kertovat, että Suomen ulko- ja turvallisuuspolitiikan johdossa ajatellaan yhä, että kaapelirikkojen sarja Itämerellä ei ole sattumaa. Lähteet kuitenkin arvioivat, että tätä voi olla mahdoton todistaa.
Esitutkinta tuskin paljastaa Venäjää
Ristiriitaiselta vaikuttavan tilanteen syntyyn ovat johtaneet eri viranomaisten ja valtionjohdon erilaiset intressit ja toimintatavat.
Tutkintavastuu kaapelirikoissa on keskusrikospoliisilla, joka esitutkintaviranomaisena tutkii epäiltyjä rikoksia. Tutkinnassa etsitään näyttöä, jota voi käyttää oikeudenkäynnissä.
Alusta saakka on voinut pitää epätodennäköisenä, että esitutkinnassa paljastuisi Venäjän osuus asiaan.
Nykyisessä turvallisuuspoliittisessa ympäristössä Venäjän osuutta on silti luonnollisesti pidettävä mahdollisena. Jos kyse olisi Venäjän erikoispalveluiden toteuttamista operaatioista, ne olisi olisi todennäköisesti toteutettu niin huolellisesti, että tavanomaisen esitutkinnan keinoin Venäjän osuuden paljastaminen ei onnistuisi.
Tällaisen operaation Venäjä tyypillisesti toteuttaisi niin sanottua proxytoimijaa käyttäen. Tällaisessa operaatiossa kaapelin rikkoja saisi maksun taholta, jota ei suoraan pysty yhdistämään Venäjän valtiollisiin toimijoihin.
Tällaisiin rahavirtoihin tai niihin liittyvään viestiliikenteeseen KRP:llä voisi olla mahdollisuus päästä käsiksi, mutta sellaisesta poliisi ei ole julkisuuteen kertonut.
Niin sanotun savuavan aseen löytäminen on epätodennäköistä.
Suojelupoliisi tuottaa taustatietoa
Toinen Itämeren putkirikkoihin olennaisesti liittyvä viranomainen on suojelupoliisi. Se on turvallisuus- ja tiedustelupalvelu, joka hankkii, analysoi ja jakaa tietoa mutta ei tutki rikoksia.
Supolla ei ole oikeutta tiedottaa siitä, mitä keskusrikospoliisin suorittamassa esitutkinnassa on selvinnyt. Sen sijaan supon tehtävä on kertoa omista tiedoistaan valtionjohdolle ja tarvittaessa muille viranomaisille.
Supo hankkii tietonsa osittain julkisista lähteistä ja omin tiedustelukeinoin, mutta erittäin merkittävässä roolissa ovat sen ulkomaiset tiedustelukumppanit.
Saamaansa tietoa supo analysoi ja vertaa aiemmin hankittuun tietoon. Tiedustelutietoa voidaan esimerkiksi verrata siihen, millaista sabotaasitoimintaa Venäjän tiedetään aiemmin harjoittaneen.
Venäjän ei tiedetä katkoneen merikaapeleita, mutta se on jäänyt kiinni toisenlaisista sabotaaseista Euroopassa.
Tämänkaltaisen analysoidun tiedon ei ole tarkoitus toimia näyttönä oikeudessa vaan antaa aineksia turvallisuuspoliittiseen päätöksentekoon. Päätöksentekijät käyttävät tietoa parhaaksi katsomallaan tavalla.
Päätöksentekoa helpottaa myös sellainen tieto, joka viittaa tiettyyn suuntaan mutta ei välttämättä aukottomasti todista sitä.
Presidentiltä uusi muotoilu Davosissa
Julkisen tiedottamisen vastuu kaapelirikkotutkinnoista on KRP:llä. Supo puolestaan varoo visusti astumasta KRP:n varpaille antamalla julkisuuteen sellaista tietoa, jonka voisi tulkita liittyvän käynnissä olevan esitutkinnan löydöksiin.
KRP ei tule tiedottamaan mitään muuta kuin sen, mitä näyttöä esitutkinnassa on saatu tai ei ole saatu. Suojelupoliisi pysyy julkisuudessa vaiti ja kertoo oman näkemyksensä valtionjohdolle, joka sitten muotoilee omat lausuntonsa olemassa olevan tiedon ja valitun turvallisuuspoliittisen linjan mukaisesti.
Tänään Davosissa Stubbin lausunto oli hieman erilainen kuin joulun välipäivinä. Bloombergin haastatteleman Stubbin mukaan asiassa on nyt kolme vaihtoehtoa: sabotaasi, erehdys ja osaamattomuus.
Цитата:
Rootsi võimud suhtuvad kaablikatkestustega seotud avaldustesse skeptiliselt
Rootsi ametiasutused lükkavad ümber Washington Postis ilmunud anonüümsetele allikatele tugineva teabe, et uurijad on jõudnud järeldusele, et kaablikatkestused Läänemerel olid õnnetused, kirjutab Rootsi rahvusringhääling SVT.
Pooleteise aasta jooksul toimus Läänemerel kolm intsidenti, kus purunesid olulised merekaablid. Kõigil juhtudel on ametivõimud tuvastanud kaablite kahjustumise välismõjude tõttu, kuid selle kohta, kas kahjustamised olid tahtlikud, pole veel vastust.
Pühapäeval avaldas Washington Post artikli, et eri riikides läbi viidud uurimistest järeldub, et kõik kaablid said kahjustada õnnetuste läbi. Viis uurimisega seotud anonüümset allikat ütlesid ka Soome ajalehele Helsingin Sanomat, et uurimise käigus pole tõendeid sabotaaži kohta leitud.
Rootsi politsei, prokurörid ja valitsus juhivad tähelepanu, et juurdlused veel käivad ja järeldusi pole veel tehtud.
"Selline teave tuleb ja läheb," ütles Rootsi kaitseminister Pal Jonson.
Jonson lisas, et sündmuste uurimisel ei saa ignoreerida tõsiasja, et Venemaa viib Läänemere piirkonnas läbi hübriidoperatsioone. "Võin nentida, et lühikese aja jooksul on juhtunud mitu kaabliintsidenti ja see tähendab, et oleme eriti valvsad. Seoses julgeolekupoliitilise keskkonna halvenemisega oleme teadlikud, et Venemaa ohustab meid ja teisi riike hübriidoperatsioonidega," sõnas Jonson.
Rootsi politsei riiklik operatiivosakond (NOA) teatas kommentaaris, et juurdlus on veel pooleli ning et endiselt kahtlustatakse Venemaa huvides tehtud sabotaaži. "Juhtumit menetletakse endiselt kui sabotaaži," kommenteeris NOA.
Rootsi poolt uurimist juhtiv riigiprokurör Henrik Söderman seadis Washington Postis avaldatud info kahtluse alla ja ütles, et järeldusi pole veel tehtud. "Praegu on liiga vara. Peame koguma materjali, mis võimaldab meil olemasolevate tõendite põhjal otsuse teha," ütles ta SVT-le.
Ka Soome võimud lükkasid Washington Postis avaldatud teabe ümber. Nad märkisid, et on absurdne väita, et kolm nii lühikese aja jooksul aset leidnud suurt kaabliintsidenti olid õnnetusjuhtumid.
Helsingis asuva Euroopa hübriidkompetentsi keskuse direktor Jukka Savolainen ütles ajalehele Soome Ilta-Sanomat, et Washington Post levitab valeuudiseid.
Цитата:
Svenska myndigheter skeptiska till uppgifter om kabelbrott: ”För tidigt”
Flertalet myndigheter i Norden avfärdar uppgifterna i Washington Post, där anonyma källor hävdar att utredningarna dragit slutsatsen att kabelbrotten i Östersjön var olyckor.
Från svensk polis, åklagare och regeringens sida pekar man på att utredningarna fortfarande pågår och att man inte dragit några slutsatser än.
– Såna här uppgifter kommer ju och går, säger försvarsminister Pål Jonson (M).
Tre incidenter där viktiga sjökablar och ledningar förstördes inom loppet av ett och ett halvt år skakade länderna kring Östersjön.
I samtliga fall har myndigheterna konstaterat att kablarna skadats eller förstörts av yttre åverkan, men något svar finns ännu inte på om händelserna var avsiktliga.
Polisens nationella operativa avdelning, Noa, uppger i en kommentar att den svenska utredningen fortsatt pågår:
”Brottsrubriceringen är alltjämt misstänkt sabotage.”
”I Rysslands intresse”
I förrgår publicerade Washington Post uppgifter om att utredningarna i de olika länderna kommit fram till att samtliga kablar förstörts och skadats av misstag.
Från finskt håll gick myndigheter och expertorganisationer snabbt ut och dementerade de amerikanska uppgifterna. De pekade på att det är ”absurt” att påstå att tre stycken stora kabelincidenter inträffat av misstag på så kort tid.
Till tidningen Ilta-Sanomat säger Jukka Savolainen, nätverksdirektör för Europeiska kompetenscentret för hybridfrågor i Helsingfors, att Washington Post sprider falska nyheter.
– Här har vi att göra med en agenda som helt klart ligger i Rysslands intresse, säger han.
Fem insatta källor berättar dock för tidningen Helsingin Sanomat att utredningen faktiskt inte funnit några bevis. En källa inom finska statsförvaltningen bekräftar bevisbristen för Hufvudstadsbladet.
”För tidigt”
Från svenskt håll är man skeptisk till uppgifterna i Washington Post och försvarsminister Pål Jonson säger att det inte går att bortse från att Ryssland använder sig av hybridoperationer i Östersjöområdet när man undersöker händelserna.
– Jag kan konstatera att det har skett flera kabelincidenter på kort tid och det gör att vi är extra vaksamma. I kombination med det försämrade säkerhetspolitiska omvärldsläget är vi medvetna om att Ryssland utsätter oss och andra länder för hybridoperationer.
Även den svenska utredningsledaren statsåklagare Henrik Söderman är frågande till uppgifterna och säger att man ännu inte kunnat dra några slutsatser.
– Det är för tidigt, för vi måste samla in material som gör att vi kan fatta ett beslut grundat på den bevisning som finns, säger han till SVT.
Цитата:
Accidents, not Russian sabotage, behind undersea cable damage, officials say
An emerging consensus among U.S. and European security services holds that accidents were the cause of damage to Baltic seabed energy and communications lines.
LONDON — Ruptures of undersea cables that have rattled European security officials in recent months were likely the result of maritime accidents rather than Russian sabotage, according to several U.S. and European intelligence officials.
The determination reflects an emerging consensus among U.S. and European security services, according to senior officials from three countries involved in ongoing investigations of a string of incidents in which critical seabed energy and communications lines have been severed.
…
От статьи к статье, по мере удаления нашего разведчика от места недавних событий, бравады, самонадеянности и самодовольства островных СМИ в описании «подвига» Мелкобританских ВМС становится все больше и больше:
Цитата:
Цитата:
UK warns Putin after Russian spy ship returns to British waters | BBC News
Цитата:
Russia 'directly challenges Britain' as spy ship enters UK waters | LBC analysis
Цитата:
British submarine drives Russian 'spy ship' out of UK waters in dramatic confrontation over critical undersea cables
A Russian spy ship fled UK territorial waters after a Royal Navy submarine surfaced next to it in a show of force, The Defence Secretary revealed today.
John Healey told MPs he approved a mission targeting the Yantar, saying it was 'loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure' at the time.
The vessel scarpered to the Mediterranean, followed by surface vessels and RAF aircraft, after being spooked by the sub in the North Sea in November.
But it is currently making the return journey through the English Channel, shadowed again by Navy warships, the Commons was told.
It is the latest incident in which Russian vessels have been accused of shady behaviour.
Almost 200 RN sailors were recalled on Christmas Day so they could be deployed to shadow Russian warships spotted in the North Sea and English Channel.
Frigate HMS Somerset set sail on Friday December 27, to keep a watch on the corvette RFS Soobrazitelny and two support vessels, MV Sparta II and MV General Skobelev for almost 500 miles.
Mr Healey told MPs today: 'I also wanted President Putin to hear this message: we see you, we know what you're doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country.'
The vessel legged it to the Mediterranean, followed by surface vessels and RAF aircraft after being spooked by the sub in the North Sea in November. But it is currently making the return journey through the English Channel, shadowed again by Navy warships (pictured), the Commons was told.
'It was detected loitering over UK critical undersea infrastructure. To deter any potential threat, I took measured steps then as part of a clear direct response to the Russian vessel.
'RAF maritime patrol aircraft alongside HMS Cattistock, HMS Tyne and RFA Proteus were deployed to shadow Yantar's every movement.
'Today, I also wanted to confirm to the House that I authorised a Royal Navy submarine, strictly as a deterrent measure, to surface close to Yantar to make clear that we had been covertly monitoring its every move.
'The ship then left UK waters without further loitering and sailed down to the Mediterranean.'
He added: 'Let me be clear, this is a Russian spy ship used for gathering intelligence and mapping the UK's critical underwater infrastructure.
'Yantar entered the UK exclusive economic zone about 45 miles off the British coast on Monday.
'For the last two days the Royal Navy has deployed HMS Somerset and HMS Tyne to monitor the vessel every minute through our waters.'
Shadow defence secretary James Cartlidge said he supported the Government's openness over how it was tackling the Russian naval threat.
Mr Cartlidge said the Conservative opposition stood 'shoulder to shoulder' with Labour over their approach.
He said: 'We welcome that transparency because it is critical for our war readiness … that as far as we are able, and without compromising our national security and operational security, we tell the British public the truth about the serious nature of the Russian threat and what that will inevitably mean for public expenditure on defence.
'I specifically welcome the change to the Royal Navy's rules of engagement. This sends a powerful signal to Putin that we will not be intimidated and that if his aim is to keep pushing the boundaries of malign activity in our waters, and those proximate to us, we will respond.'
Цитата:
Defence Secretary warns Putin over Russian spy ship in UK waters
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Степень хамоватости Трампа с его ультиматумом заметно выше, чем предполагается при заходе на серьёзный диалог. Даже я несколько удивлённо вскинул бровь.
Понятно, что он в эйфории.
Понятно, что он обиделся, что ему не позвонили.
Понятно, что обиделся на видео переговоры Путина и Си.
Понятно, что Зеленского он не контролирует и добиться от него неких уступок не может. А "актив" под названием Украина он сбросить не может.
Но, тем не менее, - явный перебор. Демонстративный. Не готов он к серьёзным переговорам с нами. Это - вывод номер раз. Ни по стратегическому размежеванию, ни по Украине локально.
Такие заявления делаются только, чтобы тебя в ответ грубо послали. Слишком густая пурга.
Не советчик начальству, но я бы скорбно вздохнул и пожал плечами. И всё. Нет предмета пока для дискуссии.
Вывод номер два: свобода манёвра у Трампа существенно меньше, чем нам кажется. Повязан он договорённостями с элитой насмерть. Ну, кто бы сомневался.
Но вообще нашу "партию мира" Трамп сегодня утопил окончательно, равно как и всех наших трампоманов. Что, безусловно, очень неплохо.
Цитата:
"Прекратить войну" ему не просто не по зубам, он станет уязвимым для своих врагов. И может потерять доверие Путина и Си.
Прежде, чем я приведу текст поста Дональда Трампа в его социальной сети относительно конфликта на Украине, считаю важным заявить следующее:
Трамп совершил ошибку, вообще взявшись "урегулировать конфликт на Украине".
Это вне зоны его империализма, за пределами его возможностей и, кроме того, может отдать его самого в руки его самых главных врагов — либерал-глобалистов.
Кроме того, у него по-прежнему очень ограниченная информация о том, что происходит в зоне СВО, в Киеве и в России. Он очень рискует именно сейчас попасть в зависимость от того самого болота, которое в очередной раз взялся осушать. Не говоря уже о том, что всем остальным его империалистическим (и, стоит отметить, весьма реалистичным) планам на ближайшее будущее это противоречит.
А теперь цитата:
"Я не хочу навредить России. Я люблю русский народ, и у меня всегда были очень хорошие отношения с президентом Путиным, и это несмотря на то, что радикальные левые твердят: "Россия, Россия, Россия". Мы никогда не должны забывать, что Россия помогла нам выиграть Вторую мировую войну, потеряв при этом почти 60 000 000 жизней. Учитывая все вышесказанное, я собираюсь оказать России, экономика которой терпит крах, и президенту Путину очень большую УСЛУГУ. Урегулируйте сейчас же и ПРЕКРАТИТЕ эту нелепую войну! ДАЛЬШЕ БУДЕТ ТОЛЬКО ХУЖЕ. Если мы не заключим “сделку”, причем в ближайшее время, у меня не будет другого выбора, кроме как ввести высокие налоги, тарифы и санкции на всё, что продается Россией Соединенным Штатам и различным другим вовлечённым странам. Давайте покончим с этой войной, которая никогда бы не началась, если бы я был президентом! Мы можем пойти легким путём или трудным, и легкий путь всегда лучше. Пришло время “ЗАКЛЮЧИТЬ СДЕЛКУ”. БОЛЬШЕ НЕЛЬЗЯ ТЕРЯТЬ ЖИЗНИ!!!".
Комментировать фактические ошибки и оценочные промахи Трампа в этом сообщении, думаю, бессмысленно. Тут важно другое. Признания того, что это США воюют с Россией на Украине, пока ждать не следует. А это ключ к решению проблемы. Он также не решился пока (а в будущем это будет всё сложнее) объявить, что эту войну против России ведут его враги — Демпартия и либеральные власти ЕС, и при таком раскладе врагом должен быть объявлен и Киев, но этого он провозгласить не мог и не может. А значит, не надо было вообще лезть в украинский конфликт. Идеальным вариантом для него было бы объявление это "чужой войной", но слово, как известно, — не воробей. Не говоря уже о том, что лозунг о недопущении Третьей Мировой войны был чуть ли не центральным в его предвыборной кампании и, что не менее важно. в переговорах с элитными группами США.
В ближайшее время все последствия этой ошибки, а также ограниченность возможностей воздействия на Россию и негативные последствия давления на неё Трамп ощутит в полной мере. Вывернется ли он из этой ловушки? Это будет сложно. И найдётся множество "доброхотов", которые с радостью бросятся затягивать петлю на его шее, "поддерживая переговоры с позиции силы".
Это, а не Панама, Гренландия или Канада с Мексикой, является главной и стратегической по своему значению ошибкой Дональда Джона Трампа.
Цитата:
Trump sends ominous threat to Putin unless he 'ends this ridiculous war' with Ukraine now
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Trump set out his thoughts on ending the war in a Truth Social post Wednesday morning
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Трамп угрожает Путину и требует "быстрой сделки", Зеленский хочет 200 тысяч миротворцев. Итоги 22.01.
Цитата:
SCHOLZ, no free speech for MUSK. Ursula, PUTIN cut gas. Elensky trashes EU. TRUMP, sanctions likely
Цитата:
Ukraine Russia War-Trump's Limited Options for Peace
Цитата:
Trump Threatens Putin with More Sanctions, Proves He Learned Nothing from Biden’s Mistakes
Цитата:
There's No Happy Ending for Ukraine
Цитата:
Trump's First 48 Hours: The Good, Bad & the Ugly
Цитата:
TRUMP 2.0 - MOATS with George Galloway - EP 415
Цитата:
Anya Parampil : [The GrayZone] : Does Trump Understand Latin America?
Цитата:
Лондонский суд запретил российским истцам, в том числе «Царьград ТВ» и RT, требовать исполнения решений российских судов против Google.
Google блокировал аккаунты лояльных Кремлю СМИ в исполнение американских санкций. Российские суды начиная с 2020 года неоднократно накладывали на корпорацию огромные и постоянно нарастающие штрафы — в октябре стало известно, что общая сумма требований российских истцов превышает ВВП всего мира, и в решении английского судьи также упоминается эта деталь.
Судья Высокого суда Англии и Уэльса Эндрю Хеншо в письменном постановлении запретил исполнять решения российских судов, указав, что условия использования продуктов Google предусматривали, что все споры между сторонами должны решаться в английских судах. Ранее в российских судах представители Google заявляли такую же позицию. Российские истцы утверждали, что из-за санкций они лишены возможности судиться в западных юрисдикциях.
Хеншо отметил, что три российских канала с конца 2023 года пытались исполнять решения российских судов через суды в таких странах, как Алжир, Египет, Венгрия, Кыргызстан, Сербия, ЮАР, Испания, Турция и Вьетнам.
Представитель Google выразил удовлетворение решением английского суда. «Годами российские суды накладывали беспрецедентные штрафы и произвольные пени на Google, пытаясь ограничить распространение информации на наших сервисах и в наказание за соблюдение международных санкций против российских лиц и организаций», — цитирует Reuters.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Чем дальше наш «Янтарь», тем больше у островитян «заслуг» и «подробностей»:
Цитата:
Revealed: How Royal Navy submarine successfully drove Vladimir Putin's 'spy ship' out of UK waters in a show of force
A Royal Navy submarine surfaced just yards from a Russian spy ship in a dramatic show of force to protect British waters.
The nuclear-powered HMS Astute emerged from the depths after the Kremlin ‘shadow fleet’ vessel was caught close to UK undersea cables.
Defence Secretary John Healey revealed the incident for the first time today and, in remarks directed at Vladimir Putin, warned ‘we see you, we know what you are doing’.
He told the House of Commons that the Yantar - a purpose-built spy vessel - was being used to gather intelligence and study this country’s underwater communications infrastructure.
The standoff between the ‘hunter killer’ submarine and the Russian surveillance ship came as Donald Trump told Vladimir Putin to ‘stop this ridiculous war’ in Ukraine, as well as threatening him with sanctions and tariffs.
Mr Healey said: ‘Today, I want to confirm I authorised a Royal Navy submarine – strictly as a deterrent measure – to surface close to Yantar to make clear we had been covertly monitoring its every move.
‘As colleagues will understand, I won’t comment further for reasons of operational security. But I want to thank all the personnel involved for the dedication and professionalism.
‘I also want President Putin to hear this message: we see you, we know what you are doing, and we will not shy away from robust action.
This graphic shows where a Royal Navy submarine surfaced yards from a Russian spy ship in a show of force to protect British waters
Defence Secretary John Healey (pictured) revealed the incident for the first time today and, in remarks directed at Vladimir Putin, warned ‘we see you, we know what you are doing’
HMS Somerset flanking Russian ship Yantar near UK waters. The Yantar caught on Monday was close to underwater sea cables
‘This is yet another example of growing Russian aggression, targeting our allies abroad and us at home.’
The incident involving HMS Astute and the Yantar happened in November, but only emerged for the first time today.
It is understood to have occurred in the vicinity of Widemouth Bay on the north Cornish coastline. An RAF maritime patrol aircraft, alongside HMS Cattistock, HMS Tyne and RFA Proteus, shadowed her every move.
The Yantar’s crew eventually complied with a ‘polite’ warning issued by the submarine’s crew - which included the phrase ‘good morning’ - and headed towards the Mediterranean.
The Mail understands a second Royal Navy submarine may have then secretly followed the Yantar on that jouney south.
But the Kremlin spy ship returned to UK waters earlier this week, raising further concerns about this country’s maritime security and transatlantic seabed cables.
On Monday she entered the UK Exclusive Economic Zone and was tracked by the warships HMS Somerset and HMS Tyne.
Mr Healey told the Commons he amended the Royal Navy’s Rules of Engagement so the warships could get closer to her. She then sailed into Dutch waters.
A Royal Navy ship with the Russian Yantar in November 2024. The Mail understands Yantar may have been surveying the Cornish coastline. A large number of transatlantic cables make landfall in Widemouth Bay, a popular spot for swimmers and surfers
Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin spy ship raises further concerns about this country’s maritime security and transatlantic seabed cables
Speaking about this week’s incident, HMS Somerset’s Commanding Officer, Commander Matthew Teare, said: ‘The Royal Navy is always there when the nation needs, protecting our home and the waters that surround it.
‘This is routine business for HMS Somerset’s ship’s company and the Royal Navy, but it is nonetheless vital work for the UK’s security and I am proud of the professionalism of my crew.’
Somerset covertly launched her Merlin helicopter, which used its powerful sensors to locate the Russian ship as it made its way north towards the English Channel.
The Type 23 frigate closed in on Yantar’s location and intercepted it in the entrance to the Channel – south of the traffic separation scheme at Ushant, near France.
The Plymouth-based warship took over monitoring duties from NATO allies after they shadowed Yantar in waters close to France.
Somerset used her cutting-edge radars and sensors to report on every move during the operation, as she maintained a close distance to Yantar through the Channel and the Strait of Dover.
In recent months, the 354ft-long Yantar has been operating in northern European waters as part of a surge of Russian maritime activity.
The vessel entered service in 2015 as part of the Russian Navy’s top secret Underwater Research Directorate. She belongs to the Northern fleet and her home port is Severomorsk.
President Trump with Putin in 2019. The standoff between the ‘hunter killer’ submarine and the Russian surveillance ship came as Trump told Putin to ‘stop this ridiculous war’ in Ukraine, as well as threatening him with sanctions and tariffs
Mr Healey told MPs today: 'Today, I want to confirm I authorised a Royal Navy submarine – strictly as a deterrent measure – to surface close to Yantar to make clear we had been covertly monitoring its every move'
Yantar, which as a displacement of 5,736 tons, has been equipped with surveillance and interception equipment and can operate submersible drones capable of reaching the Atlantic Ocean floor.
Powered by a diesel-electric engine and with a top speed of 15 knots. Yantar has a complement of 60 sailors - many of them trained in espionage and electronic warfare.
The Mail understands Yantar may have been surveying the Cornish coastline. A large number of transatlantic cables make landfall in Widemouth Bay, a popular spot for swimmers and surfers.
The beach is also six miles from a GCHQ listening station. The facility, known for its giant white satellite dishes, celebrated its 50th year of operation in 2024.
According to official government websites, teams at GCHQ Bude ‘engage in the full breadth of GCHQ’s operational work, but with a key focus on maintaining and managing the collection of data’.
Much of this data, and much of this country’s internet traffic flows through the cables, which explains its interest to the Russians.
The UK and its NATO allies are increasingly concerned about the risk Russia poses to offshore cables and pipelines.
Underwater cables on an ocean floor. The UK and its NATO allies are increasingly concerned about the risk Russia poses to offshore cables and pipelines (file image)
Increasing fears of Kremlin sabotage triggered a military response today as the Ministry of Defence announced a P-8 Poseidon and a Rivet Joint spy planes will join the new Baltic Sentry NATO deployment to protect critical undersea infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the Royal Fleet Auxiliary ship Proteus has been deployed to monitor offshore infrastructure.
Mr Healey added: ‘Russia remains the most pressing and immediate threat to Britain. I want to assure the House and the British people that any threat will be met with strength and resolve.’
The heads of MI6 and the CIA recently issued a joint statement condemning Russia’s ‘reckless campaign of sabotage’ across Europe.
On Christmas Day, the Estlink2 undersea cable between Finland and Estonia was damaged. Many analysts believe this was caused by a Russian ‘shadow fleet’ vessel.
Помним, что либералы (ЕСО>ИСО) всегда обвиняет патриотов (ИСО>ЕСО) в том, что собираются делать сами:
Цитата:
Inside Belarus’ secret program to undermine the EU
Intercepted phone calls and documents obtained by POLITICO reveal how Alexander Lukashenko’s regime weaponized migration.
The guidance from the Belarusian government was clear: Let the migrants go to Europe.
When Ihar Kachalau, the deputy head of the criminal police in Minsk region, received reports about the disappearance of several people who had traveled to Belarus from Africa to learn how to play football, he phoned the Ministry of Internal Affairs to ask for advice.
“The minister gave explicit instructions,” said Mikhail Bedunkevich, a senior official in the ministry, in an intercept of the call shared with POLITICO. “We should not concern ourselves with migrants in transit to Europe.” He paused for a moment, then added: “Disappeared? All good, as long as they don’t settle here. Anything that moves in that direction … we shouldn’t stand in its way.”
The call — recorded in May 2021 and shared with POLITICO by former Belarusian security officials — lasts under two minutes. Together with a trove of other intercepts and documents, and interviews with former and current members of the security forces, it reveals how the Belarusian authorities facilitated the attempts by migrants to fly into the country and cross illegally into the European Union.
The program of hybrid warfare was designed to sow political discord in EU countries. It began in the spring of 2021 as the country came under sanction from the bloc for a crackdown on dissent following a fraudulent election that gave the country’s dictator Alexander Lukashenko a sixth term as president.
The documents include communications between Belarusian security forces and state-controlled travel agencies and hotels.
They detail an effort to weaponize migration that is still operating today as the 70-year-old autocrat seeks election for an unprecedented seventh term on Jan. 26.
Since the beginning of the program, at least 120 people have died along the Belarusian border with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, according to rights group Human Constanta. Polish and EU border guards have been accused of illegally pushing back migrants. Warsaw plans to seal its entire border with Belarus this summer in a bid to close off the migration route.
“It is clear — this is Lukashenko’s revenge for the imposition of sanctions,” said a serving border guard interviewed by POLITICO who gave his name as Aleh. “It will continue as long as the EU reacts to all the horrors in Belarus.”
When Lukashenko was asked in 2021, some six months after the phone call between the police chief and the official from the interior ministry, whether he was weaponizing migrants, he denied it.
“If you’re accusing me of helping them get in,” he told the BBC, “put the facts on the table, put me up against the wall with those facts.”
Belarusian holidays
The scheme kicked off against a backdrop of escalating tensions between Belarus and the EU after Lukashenko’s controversial reelection in 2020. Mass protests against the fraudulent vote were put down by the most sweeping crackdown on dissent in the country’s post-Soviet history.
In May 2021, the Belarusian dictator ordered military aircraft to force a Ryanair plane with opposition blogger Raman Pratasevich on board to land in Minsk. When the EU responded with a package of sanctions a month later, Lukashenko hit back, saying Belarus would cease efforts to hold back the flow of narcotics and migrants across its border with the EU.
The documents show he was doing more than that.
Advertisements were posted in countries like Iraq promoting tours to Belarus. When potential migrants responded, the travel firms submitted petitions to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, requesting short-term visas.
The stated purposes ranged from business trips to tourism, hunting and medical treatment — often involving group visas — as evidenced by application forms and passport records seen by POLITICO. However, many migrants reported being unofficially promised an easy crossing into the EU.
After paying between $6,000 and $15,000 for the package, travelers flew to Belarus with airlines like Fly Baghdad, Iraqi Airways and Belarusia’s state-run Belavia. They received visas on arrival, were greeted by company representatives and were taken to hotels — owned by the Presidential Property Management Directorate, a government department that reports directly to Lukashenko
Tourists in Belarus were indeed offered excursions to state-owned enterprises, hunting trips, visits to spa centres, and even outings to the circus — as photos dating back to November 2021 show. But the tour companies were aware that the migrants weren’t coming to Belarus just for business or pleasure.
In an intercepted phone call, Dzmitry Korabau, deputy head of Oskartour, a private tour company that participated in the scheme, said that people had arrived in Minsk “without bags.”
“The planes flying back to their home countries are half empty,” he joked. In another call, he said that when people “run away, they ditch all their documents so they can’t be identified.”
The scheme ran smoothly until June 2021, when independent Belarusian and Western media began reporting on the large numbers of foreigners seen in the streets, cafes, and shopping centers, and linking their arrivals to Tsentrkurort, the state tour company named in the visa applications, which is owned by the Presidential Property Management Directorate.
In an intercepted phone call from June 15, 2021, Aliaksei Strelchanka, deputy director of Tsentrkurort, can be heard calling Korabau, his counterpart at Oskartour.
Strelchanka sounds uneasy. Western media, he says, is sounding the alarm over escaped migrants and he needs to report back to his “superiors.”
“If I have to provide explanations at the governmental level, none of these cases can be tied to us, correct? There have always been some incidents [with escapes],” he asks.
By his “superiors,” Strelchanka was referring to the Presidential Property Management Directorate. In another call, he describes the first deputy head of the property directorate as the agencies’ “supervisor.” That would be Mikalai Selivanau — who was appointed by Lukashenko to the position in 2013.
Korabau reassures him that everything is under control, even though four missing migrants are being tracked by Belarusian border guards and there was another incident the previous night involving seven escapees.
The visibility of ties between Lukashenko and the state tour operator appears to have prompted a change in strategy. Tsentrkurort and Oskartour formalized an agreement that shifted visa paperwork to the privately run company.
In a conversation between Korabau and a border guard, the deputy head of Oskartour can be heard saying, “We are both Oskartour and Tsentrkurort — we are both responsible for [the migrants]. We work under a cooperation agreement … We are partners, especially for Iraq.”
“There was a lot of news that Tsentrkurort was trafficking illegals — that’s why they got an order ‘from above’ to stop this work … They only told us yesterday, and now we’re reworking the applications,” Korabau explains in a further conversation in June.
Visa petitions were also submitted by Belarusian companies such as Sidon tour and Beregovaya Zvezda (later renamed World Travel). Later, invitations began to be issued via Russia. Migrants often flew to Moscow or St. Petersburg under the pretext of studying, before traveling on to Belarus.
POLITICO sent written requests for comment to the presidential property department, the interior ministry, Tsentrkurort and Oskartour. The first three did not respond while an email to Oskartour bounced.
Calls to the property department, interior ministry and State Border Committee went unanswered. The number for Oskartour was disconnected. The number given in the call records for Korabau, the Oskartour executive, has since been reassigned to another person.
Strelchanka, the deputy director of the Tsentrkurort, picked up but denied any involvement in the 2021 migration crisis before hanging up. Kachalau, the deputy head of the criminal police in Minsk region, confirmed his identity but cut the call short as soon as questions began. Bedunkevich, the interior ministry official who spoke to Kachalau, hung up without a word. Interior Minister Ivan Kubrakou did not respond to a direct message.
Blind eye
According to BelPol, an association of former security service officers who now oppose Lukashenko’s rule, the scheme evolved between the spring and autumn of 2021.
At first, the regime simply turned a blind eye when individual migrants managed to cross into the EU. In an intercept from this period, Korabau remarked: “We don’t care [if they’re missing], as long as they’re buying return tickets.”
In the early months of the crisis, migrants caught by guards near the border were returned to the tour firms, which confined them to their hotels. “They stay in the room. I have their passports and phones … They’re under lock, and I have the key. They’re only fed,” Korabau said in another recording.
The initial directive was not to assist the migrants — but also not to punish them, said Uladzimir Zhyhar, a BelPol representative and former police officer. During this time, the Belarusian authorities observed how EU neighbors Poland, Lithuania and Latvia would react.
On June 20, 2021, Korabau received a call from a man who introduced himself as a border guard.
“Good morning,” said Korabau.
“Is it really a good morning?” the man replied. “Two of your tourists have gone missing … Send me the photos of their passports … You’ll need to meet them in Minsk. For now, we’ll give them a stern talking-to so they don’t try this again. If we catch them next time, we’ll hit them with deportation … They were wandering near the Polish border.”
In another exchange, Korabau seems alarmed by the program’s success: “The Iraqis are spreading across Belarus like ants. We’re fucked. The service made a mistake — the first two groups escaped without punishment … Other Iraqis in Baghdad think, ‘If they did it, why can’t we?’ Now, 80 percent of the tourists on these flights are the same type.”
By the fall of 2021, however, Belarusian authorities had not only accepted the flow of migrants, they were ushering arrivals into the country toward the EU, as shown in leaked videos of officers escorting migrants to the border.
This was done at the behest of Lukashenko, according to five current border guards and three interior ministry employees. “Everyone understood that this was being done in retaliation for the EU’s hardline stance against Lukashenko,” was how one put it.
Aleh, the border guard, recalled that in the summer of 2021, as the migrant influx began to grow, regular border staff were informed that the matter was of national importance and were told to await further directives.
By autumn, they received new instructions. “From the entire staff, several employees were selected to ensure the unobstructed passage of migrants and their escorts to the state border,” Aleh explains. They were responsible for conducting “awareness sessions” with the rest of the staff to ensure no one took unnecessary actions.
“To put it simply, the rule was: if you see migrants, turn away and act as if they aren’t there,” Aleh said. “There would be no punishment for doing so.”
Guided across the border
“It was striking how organized the groups became,” recalled Aliaksandr, another serving border guard.
Migrants were transported in private vehicles to the border, where they were met by members of the ASAM (Separate Service of Active Measures), a special unit of the Belarusian Border Guards. With help from the guards, they were guided to specific crossing points and attempted to breach the frontier.
“At first, there was no structure — they just charged ahead in a disorganized manner,” said Aliaksandr. “Later, when the scheme was refined, their actions became more calculated. Several escorts in uniform. Small groups of five to 15 people. They all started bringing ladders and metal shears, and wearing quality winter clothing.”
If the first attempt failed, they would try again later. If they failed again, a new tactic was used: One group acted as a decoy, while smaller units attempted to cross through less-guarded areas. If they were detected by the Polish, Lithuanian or Latvian authorities, the migrants retreated into the forest to await further instructions.
The situation was soon making international headlines as Poland, Latvia and Lithuania sought to block migrants from entering, leaving thousands trapped at the border.
Kiril, another border guard, said some migrants, exhausted after going for days without food, were prepared to storm the border, while others tried to return to Belarus.
“If they chose to return, they were detained by the Belarusian side and treated like animals. Anyone who tried to return was dragged back to the border — and they were beaten,” Kiril explains.
A current member of ASAM reached by POLITICO confirmed the change in the scheme. When asked whether migrants were being guided to the border and forced back if they returned, he replied: “Yes.” He then added that they had signed a “five-year non-disclosure agreement.” Soon after, he broke off contact.
Today, according to Aleh, the scheme continues. But instead of overwhelming the border, the Lukashenko regime now focuses on “quality over quantity.”
Moving migrants to the EU border involves several teams: a support unit, a diversion team, and skilled instructors. Any critical political statement from an EU neighbor prompts an immediate increase in migrant flows toward that border.
“Migrants need to be controlled so they don’t scatter across the country,” said Aleh. “That’s why the flows have decreased, but their organization and preparation have clearly improved.”
Trump haluaa Grönlannin, mutta myös jotain hyvin arvokasta Suomesta – kamppailu on jo alkanut
Trumpin hämmentäneessä Suomi-lipsahduksessa oli totta toinen puoli. Yhdysvallat janoaa vimmatusti kriittisiä mineraaleja, koska se ei pysty itse niitä tuottamaan.
Toimittaja kysyy videolla juuri virassa aloittaneelta presidentti Donald Trumpilta, onko hän kiinnostunut ostamisen sijaan muusta ratkaisusta Grönlannin osalta. Trump on puhunut painokkaasti Grönlannin ostamisesta Yhdysvalloille.
Trump ilmeisesti kuulee väärin toimittajan kysymyksen ja kysyy:
– Suomen?
Oliko se pelkkä huvittanut moka vai oliko siinä kuitenkin totuutta toinen puoli?
Yhdysvallat on ajanut itsensä pahaan solmuun kriittisissä raaka-aineissa. Maa on monilta osin tuonnin varassa, eikä pysty itse tuottamaan teollisuudelleen riittävästi myös EU:n himoitsemia ja tärkeitä kriittisiä ja strategisia mineraaleja ja raaka-aineita, joista tunnetuimpia ovat muun muassa nikkeli, koboltti, kupari ja litium.
Yhdysvalloissa myös uusien kaivosten avaaminen on maailman toiseksi hitainta. Prosessi voi kestää jopa 29 vuotta.
Lisäksi kilpakumppani Kiina hallitsee ylivoimaisesti kriittisten mineraalien maailmanlaajuista tuottamista, mutta lisäksi myös niiden tärkeää jalostamista.
Yhdysvaltojen puolustusteollisuudella on mineraaleille kasvava tarve. Siksi se tavoittelee niitä vimmatusti muualta länsimaista.
”Emme ole vetäneet rajaa näiden kahden asian väliin”
Yhdysvaltojen ulkoministeriön energiaosaston apulaissihteeri Scott Woodard sanoo kiinnostavien mineraalien kysynnän olevan huimassa kasvussa.
– Ensimmäinen haaste on todella saada enemmän ja enemmän näitä mineraaleja eri lähteistä, Woodard sanoo Ylelle antamassaan haastattelussa.
Tuoreilla Nato-kumppaneilla Suomella ja Ruotsilla on maaperässä runsaasti kriittisiä mineraaleja.
Onko Yhdysvallat kiinnostunut Suomesta ja Ruotsista myös maiden mineraalivarojen takia?
Woodardin kohteliaasta vastauksesta saa viitteitä:
– Emme ole vetäneet erityistä rajaa näiden kahden asian [Nato ja mineraalit] väliin. Mielestäni Suomen ja Ruotsin liittyminen Natoon on vain yksi esimerkki lisää arvoista, joita maamme jakavat, Woodard vastaa.
Woodardin mukaan Yhdysvaltojen on dramaattisesti lisättävä mineraalien saatavuutta ja monipuolistettava niiden toimitusketjuja.
– Mielestäni Pohjoismaat voivat näytellä avainroolia molemmissa asioissa.
Woodard ylistää erityisesti Suomen aktiivisuutta Mineraalien kumppanuusohjelmassa (MSP).
Kyseessä on Yhdysvaltojen ajama koalitio useiden länsimaiden kanssa. Kumppanuusohjelma keskittyy kriittisten mineraalien toimitusketjuihin länsimaille.
Suomi on kuulunut mukaan ensimmäisten joukossa alusta asti, vuodesta 2022 alkaen
– Suomalaiset tulevat kokouksiin, ja heillä on paljon annettavaa tässä asiassa Washingtonin ja Helsingin välillä, Woodard kiittelee.
”Kaivokset ovat sotilaallisen kiinnostuksen kohteita”
Yhdysvallat haistavat Suomessa ja Pohjoismaissa raaka-ainevarat.
Geologian tutkimuskeskuksen mukaan Suomi on useiden kriittisten ja strategisten metallien tai teollisuusmineraalien osalta suurin tai ainoa tuottaja EU:n alueella.
Näitä ovat koboltti, platina, palladium, nikkeli, fosfaattikivi/apatiitti.
Suomen merkitys on suuri erityisesti näiden tuotannon ja jalostuksen vuoksi.
Suomi, Ruotsi ja Norja ovat lisäksi ainoat Pohjoismaat, joissa on metallimalmikaivoksia. Ruotsi on Euroopassa merkittävä kuparin tuottaja.
Yle kysyi kahdelta pohjoisten arktisten alueiden turvallisuuspolitiikan tutkijalta, miten Suomen ja muiden pohjoismaiden mineraaliresurssit nähdään Yhdysvalloissa nyt.
Macdonald-Laurier-instituutissa Kanadassa työskentelevän vanhemman tutkijan Alexander Dalzielin mukaan on odotettavissa, että Yhdysvaltojen puheen painopisteet muuttuvat.
Trumpia ei kiinnosta ympäristön tai vihreän siirtymän teesit, vaan voima.
– Sotilaallinen puoli korostuu. Suomessa, Ruotsissa ja Norjassa on näitä mineraaleja, joita tarvitaan sotilaallisiin tarkoituksiin, Dalziel toteaa Ylelle.
Dalziel mainitsee sotilaallisista tarkoituksista esimerkkinä lentokoneiden suihkumoottorit.
– Näitä raaka-aineita hallitsevat monissa tapauksissa lähes täysin Venäjä ja Kiina.
Dalzielin mukaan ensisijainen ja tärkein syy Yhdysvaltojen läsnäoloon Natoon kuuluvien pohjoismaiden alueilla on sotilaallinen ja strateginen Venäjän uhka arktisella alueella.
Mineraaleja ei kuitenkaan voida ohittaa. Dalziel uskoo, että pohjoisten raaka-aineiden merkitys tulee kasvamaan yhä suuremmaksi.
– Kaivokset ja niiden ympärille rakennettu infrastruktuuri on tietysti nähtävä sotilaallisen kiinnostuksen kohteena, Dalziel toteaa Ylelle.
Edessä taistelu raaka-aineista?
Japanilaisen Kogakkan-yliopiston nyky-yhteiskuntatieteiden apulaisprofessori, Masatoshi Murakami pitää Suomen asemaa erityisenä.
– Suomi, erityisesti Pohjois-Suomi on erittäin rikas nikkelistä ja se on erittäin mielenkiintoinen asema, Murakami sanoo Ylen haastattelussa.
Japanikin kuuluu Yhdysvaltojen johtamaan Mineraalien kumppanuusohjelmaan.
Murakamin mukaan kumppanuusohjelmassa on mielenkiintoinen järjestely: osa maista on kuluttajamaita, kuten Japani, Saksa ja Ranska, joilla ei ole mineraaleja omasta takaa. Nämä pystyvät järjestämään taloutensa turvin turvallisia tuotantoketjuja muille kumppaneille.
Suomi ja Ruotsi ovat sen sijaan mineraalien tuottajamaita.
Murakamin mukaan juuri tämä tekee pohjoisesta alueesta erittäin jännitteisen.
Suomi ja Ruotsi ovat hyvin lähellä myös arktista aluetta. Venäjällä on ollut viime aikoina paljon sotilaallisia toimintoja arktisella alueella. Murakamin mukaan on raportteja myös Kiinan läsnäolosta alueella.
– Yhdysvallat on erittäin huolissaan tilanteesta arktisella merellä, ja jos ajatellaan arktista aluetta, Suomi on erittäin tärkeä osa tässä, Murakami sanoo.
Mitä tutkijat ajattelevat tulevaisuudesta?
Ovatko Trumpin puheet Grönlannin ostamisesta alku taistelulle maailman kriittisistä mineraaleista?
– Niiden merkitys on korkea, mutta varoisin ajatusta väkivaltaisesta yhteenotosta arktisista resursseista, Dalziel toteaa.
– Hyvin yksinkertainen vastaukseni on kyllä, Murakami sanoo Ylelle.
Трамп третий день угрожает Путину. Что это значит?
С момента инаугурации прошло уже три дня и за это время Трамп резко поменял свою риторику по Украине, в сравнении с той, что была до 20 января и, особенно, в сравнение с той, что была до выборов.
От прежних времен остались только заверения в желании поскорее завершить войну в Украине.
В остальном же - идут крайне жесткие заявления в адрес Путина. Их смысл, если просуммировать, следующий - «Украина готова к сделке по завершению войны, поэтому все вопросы теперь к России. Путин должен принять решение и остановить войну. Если он этого не сделает, я введу против РФ максимально жесткие санкции и обрушу цену на нефть».
Мы уже вчера писали, что угрозы Трампа Москве за отказ от переговоров по Украине выглядят несколько парадоксально. Если посмотреть на последние сигналы из Украины и России, то против "быстрой сделки" куда чаще высказывался Киев и его европейские партнеры. Москва же всячески намекала на готовность к переговорам.
Зеленский же в своих последних интервью продолжал настаивать на том, что завершать войну сейчас нельзя (что прямо противоречит словам Трампа) и заявил, что для начала диалога с РФ Москва должна отвести войска на линию февраля 2022 года, что в нынешних условиях, когда российская армия наступает, выглядит нереальным.
При этом, хотя последние заявления Трампа и называют «ультиматумом Путину», по своей сути он таковым не является, так как не содержит главного - конкретных условий, которая должна выполнить сторона, которой этот ультиматум выдвигается.
Он содержит лишь общее требование "остановить войну". Но каким образом это должен, по мнению Трампа, сделать Путин?
Отвести войска на границы 1991 года, на линию 2022 года, остановить огонь по линии фронта? Этого Трамп не говорит.
В связи с чем есть две версии.
Первая исходит из того, что контакты между Трампом и Кремлем по условиям завершения войны уже идут. Но либо переговорный процесс зашел в тупик из-за несовпадения позиций и Трамп решил надавить на Путина публичными угрозами, чтоб, например, тот согласился просто на прекращение огня без каки-либо дополнительных условий (или с минимальными условиями). Либо Москва и Вашингтон уже обо всем друг с другом договорились и в ближайшее время эти договоренности будут озвучены, но Трамп теперь хочет создать впечатление, что это не он "прогнулся", а Путин. Для того и делает резкие заявления с «ультиматумами».
Узким местом этой версии является то, что до сих пор не было никаких даже неофициальных утечек о том, что переговоры идут и о том, что Трамп уже переслал Путину некие конкретные предложения.
Вторая версия гласит, что Трамп четко стал на позицию, которую продвигают украинские власти и "партия войны" на Западе. Они призывают вообще не предлагать пока ничего Путину, а лишь усиливать давление на РФ, увеличивать поставки оружия. И так вплоть до того, пока Кремль не капитулирует, приняв те условия завершения войны, которые ему продиктует Украина и Запад.
То есть, это прежняя стратегия войны "до победного конца", которая не подразумевает ее быстрого завершения.
Правда, это противоречит как заявлениям самого Трампа, который продолжает обещать скорейшее завершение войны, так и заявлениям его соратников, в частности, госсекретаря Марко Рубио, который говорил, что и Украине, и России, нужно идти на компромиссы.
Но Трампу идею «давить на РФ до победы» могли «продать», рассказав о том, что экономика РФ находится на "грани краха" и нужно лишь пригрозить усилением санкций и падением цен на нефть, а также подключить к давлению на Россию Китай, и Путин будет вынужден быстро принять все условия, которые ему продиктует Трамп. К слову, поток публикаций в западных СМИ на эту тему резко усилился как раз в последние дни. В разных изданиях появляются статьи с одной и той же мыслью - "если надавить на РФ, то уже к концу года она не сможет продолжать войну", "Кремль очень беспокоит состояние экономики", "нужно усилить санкции и уже через несколько месяцев Москва запросит мира" и т.д.
Напомним, что крах российской экономики предсказывают с начала войны. Но этого не происходит. И сейчас немало экспертов также полагает, что слухи о скором экономическом обвале РФ несколько преувеличены. Цены на нефть также пытались еще при Байдене направить вниз, но не получалось. Да и зачем низкие цены на нефть нефтедобывающим странам (равно как и американским нефтяникам) не очень понятно. В целом, в реалистичности этой задачи также есть сомнения.
Будет ли давить Китай на РФ по просьбе Трампа, с учетом четкого антикитайского курса последнего? Гарантий нет.
Правда, в последние дни появилась версия, что своими призывами к Путину прекратить войну Трамп пытается вызвать к жизни движение за мир внутри РФ. Как среди элит, так и среди населения. Но об этом можно было хотя бы теоретически говорить, если б Трамп публично выдвинул конкретный набор условий завершение войны, которые в глазах россиян выглядели бы вполне приемлемо (например - прекращение огня по линии фронта, заморозка членства Украины в НАТО, снятие с РФ санкций), а Путин бы ответил на это отказом, продолжая требовать всю территорию четырех областей, включая Херсон и Запорожье. Тогда, возможно, в России и могло бы начаться определенное брожение. Но вряд ли это возможно после нынешнего «ультиматума» Трампа к Путину с угрозами и требованиями прекратить войну ещё до каких-либо переговоров. Тем более, что с подобными призывами к Путину уже почти как три года обращались все западные лидеры, но на российское общество это сильно не действовало.
Но вернёмся к обещанным Трампом мерам давления на Россию. Если их даже и удастся реализовать и от них будет сильный негативный эффект для российской экономики, то случится это далеко не сразу. А на способности РФ продолжать войну скажется еще позже.
Наконец, Путин, если почувствует, что дело принимает тяжелый для РФ оборот, может сам резко в любой момент поднять ставки, вплоть до угрозы применения ядерного оружия.
И, в итоге, война не только не закончится (как обещает Трамп), а рискует подойти к грани Третьей мировой.
О том, что Трамп может стать на позицию "партии войны", и, по итогу, втянуться в войну в Украине ещё сильнее, напомним, накануне инаугурации заявлял его бывший советник Бэннон.
Он считает, что Трамп может попасть «в ловушку», подготовленную альянсом американской оборонной промышленности, европейцев и «сбившихся с пути» соратников нового президента, среди которых, по мнению Бэннона, и спецпредставитель по Украине Кит Келлог.
О том, что ситуация при Трампе может развиваться не только в направлении мирного урегулирования, но и по сценарию затягивания войны или даже ее резкой эскалации, неоднократно ранее писала (https://t.me/stranaua/181613) и «Страна».
Но, повторимся, однозначно делать выводы, что шансы на скорейшее завершение войны в Украине уже обнулены, еще рано. Не исключено, что мы действительно наблюдаем некий торг, за которым последует та самая "сделка", о
которой любит говорить Трамп. Тем более, что он угрожает сейчас не только России, но и, по разным поводам, и многим другим странам. Что уже воспринимается как его стиль ведения переговоров.
Ключевым моментом будет встреча Трампа и Путина и ее итог. Либо отсутствие такой встречи, что само по себе станет индикатором срыва переговоров и ухода войны «в долгую».
Цитата:
Может ли Трамп сбить цены на нефть и тем самым остановить Путина – анализ Би-би-си.
«Если в падении цен на нефть и заключается давно обещанный план Трампа остановить агрессию России против Украины, то выглядит он сомнительно», – пишет экономическим обозреватель Би-би-си Алексей Калмыков.
«Что может сделать Трамп? Цена на нефть определяется на рынке балансом спроса и предложения, и у Трампа есть рычаги влияния только на предложение, поскольку он очевидно не собирается сокращать потребление ископаемого топлива в США, а даже наоборот. Как Трамп реально может увеличить предложение нефти на мировом рынке? Во-первых, в его власти распечатать стратегический резерв США. Во-вторых, он может создать условия для прироста добычи в США – крупнейшем в мире производителе нефти. И в-третьих, он может снять санкции с крупных производителей – Ирана и Венесуэлы», – говорится в публикации.
«Чего Трамп не может сделать? Он не может быстро нарастить добычу в США – на это уйдут годы. И ему очень затруднительно будет сделать то, о чем он сегодня рассказал как о главном инструменте прекращения войны России против Украины – «попросить Саудовскую Аравию и ОПЕК снизить цену нефти».
Саудовская Аравия – один из двух гигантов ОПЕК+. Второй – Россия. И для того, чтоб реализовать свой замысел Трампу придется убедить Саудовскую Аравию фактически развалить ОПЕК+.
«Нет ничего невозможного, но Трамп выбрал явно не самый прямой путь к прекращению войны в Европе. Особенно с учетом того, что самой Саудовской Аравии и другим членам ОПЕК+ хотелось бы цен повыше нынешних 80 долларов за баррель, поскольку их бюджеты сверстаны с оглядкой на амбиции, проснувшиеся при ценах в $130», – пишет издание.
Однако, как говорится в публикации, Трамп «может добиться своего, если воплотит в жизнь главную угрозу - обложить весь мир импортными тарифами на поставки товаров в США. Подобная мера, вкупе с другими начинаниями Трампа, чревата разгоном инфляции и торможением мировой экономики. В этом случае рухнет спрос на энергоносители, а следом и цены, как это было в ковидный кризис, после которого Трамп проиграл президентские выборы Джо Байдену. Вряд ли он захочет войти в эту реку дважды».
_________________
С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
В Мелкобритании приступ паранойи на тему «Янтаря». Корабля уж и след простыл, а «безумия» и «отваги» в материалах островных СМИ становится все больше и больше.
Цитата:
Цитата:
Former MI6 Chief warns ‘Russia thinks it is at war with us’
The Defence Committee’s inquiry into “Defence in the Grey Zone” featured sobering testimony from Sir Alex Younger, former chief of MI6, who highlighted the increasingly complex threats posed by adversarial states such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
Sir Alex outlined how these nations exploit vulnerabilities in liberal democracies, with Russia standing out for its perception of being in a state of conflict with the West.
Sir Alex provided a stark assessment of Russia’s approach to hybrid warfare.
“Looking at Russia, the asymmetry in the relationship with Russia is, of course, all about capabilities and systems, but it is fundamentally about the fact that they think they are at war with us, and we do not think we are at war with them,”
he said.
He explained how President Vladimir Putin views hybrid tactics as a form of horizontal escalation—a way to retaliate for perceived Western actions in Ukraine.
“Putin is seized of the idea of horizontal escalation, which he believes is a reciprocal response to what we are doing in Ukraine. It is completely false and erroneous, but that is how he looks at it,”
Sir Alex explained. This mindset drives Russia to actively deploy capabilities just below the threshold of armed conflict, such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and sabotage, to undermine the UK and its allies.
In contrast, Sir Alex described China’s hybrid activities as driven by a fundamentally different agenda.
“Looking at China, it is a completely different situation,” he said. “They do not conceive of themselves as being at war with us, and Chinese aims are, in fact, very different. They are essentially that China should rise and be allowed to pursue its own interests unfettered.”
Sir Alex pointed to China’s campaign against Taiwan as a prime example of hybrid warfare, describing it as a
“textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment.”
While less overtly combative than Russia’s approach, China’s sophisticated use of hybrid tactics remains a significant challenge.
Sir Alex emphasised that the UK faces hybrid threats from a
“limited and recognisable number of actors.”
He identified Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China as the principal sources of concern, each shaping their hybrid strategies based on their unique national situations and objectives.
For Russia, the combination of its belief in an ongoing conflict with the West and its capabilities in disinformation and cyberattacks makes it a particularly potent threat. Meanwhile, countries like North Korea and Iran use hybrid methods to offset their conventional military weaknesses, focusing on asymmetric tactics.
A recurring theme in Sir Alex’s testimony was how authoritarian regimes exploit the inherent vulnerabilities of democratic systems.
“One of the manifestations of our values is a set of laws and boundaries,”
he explained. Democracies differentiate between wartime and peacetime actions, with legal and institutional frameworks that limit responses during peace.
“If you are from a political dispensation that does not do that stuff, does not have any political accountability and can move at the speed of the autocratic whim, as opposed to the democratic will, you will have some potential advantages,” Sir Alex noted. He warned that adversaries could “do stuff that has the effect of war, but does not cross our threshold, in the knowledge that we will be constrained in our response.”
Sir Alex stressed the importance of recognising and addressing these threats, calling for increased resilience in the face of hybrid warfare.
“There are things that you need to run a liberal democracy that are intrinsically vulnerable,”
he said, adding that defending against these threats requires a nuanced and robust approach.
Цитата:
Typhoon fighter jettisons canopy over North Sea
A Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon was forced to jettison its canopy during a mid-air emergency over the North Sea.
The incident involved a jet from XI (Fighter) Squadron at RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire, which safely returned to base after the emergency.
The canopy, the transparent cover shielding the cockpit, was reportedly released by the pilot due to a suspected bird strike. While official confirmation of the cause is awaited, the pilot managed to land the aircraft safely, with no injuries reported.
A RAF Spokesperson confirmed:
“On 23 Jan, a Canopy from a XI (F) Sqn Typhoon aircraft from RAF Coningsby was jettisoned by the pilot following an in-flight emergency.
The aircraft recovered safely to RAF Coningsby and the pilot is fine.”
The Typhoon FGR.Mk 4 is a highly advanced and agile multi-role combat aircraft, capable of performing a wide range of missions, including air policing, peace support, and high-intensity conflict. Initially deployed in an air-to-air role, the aircraft has evolved into a precision multi-role platform, equipped with cutting-edge features such as a hands-on throttle and stick (HOTAS) interface and the Helmet Equipment Assembly (HEA), making it highly effective across all air operations.
Despite its precision attack capabilities, its most critical role remains providing quick reaction alert (QRA) for UK and Falkland Islands airspace, while also reinforcing NATO air defence in regions such as the Baltic and Black Sea.
The Typhoon FGR4’s multi-role capability is supported by an array of sophisticated weapons, including the infrared-guided Advanced Short Range Air-to-Air Missile (ASRAAM), the radar-guided Meteor and AMRAAM, and the Captor radar and PIRATE electro-optical targeting system. Combined with its superior performance and manoeuvrability, these features make the Typhoon a formidable force in both air-to-air engagements and precision strike missions.
Цитата:
UK focus on Arctic amid Russian threat.
In a robust exchange in the House of Commons, Defence Secretary John Healey reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to addressing evolving threats from Russia, particularly in the high north, as part of the ongoing Strategic Defence Review (SDR).
Graeme Downie MP (Labour – Dunfermline and Dollar) praised the Defence Secretary for his decisive stance against Russian aggression, stating,
“This aggression will not be tolerated.”
He pointed to specific areas of concern, including quick reaction alert, subsea cables, and the defence of the high north, and asked how the SDR would account for these evolving challenges.
In response, the Defence Secretary highlighted the growing strategic importance of the high north, a region increasingly contested due to climate change and the opening of new shipping routes.
“The high north will become strategically much more essential. Degrees of conflict and contest are likely to grow there,”
Mr. Healey stated.
He assured the House that these concerns are central to the SDR, adding,
“If [Mr. Downie] looks at the terms of reference of the strategic defence review, and the work of the review and challenge groups… he will see that the concerns that he raises are central to the SDR’s work.”
Mr. Healey spoke on the importance of learning from recent conflicts and incidents, such as the war in Ukraine and the damage to a Finnish ship in the Baltic Sea, to inform the UK’s strategic priorities.
He assured MPs that the SDR would reflect the lessons of these events, stating,
“When it is published, I am sure that [Mr. Downie] will find evidence that the caution he gives to the House is taken very seriously by the Government.”
...
Цитата:
British ship shadows Russian ship it’s designed to counter
A remarkable image has surfaced showing the Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) vessel Proteus operating alongside the Russian spy ship Yantar in British waters, an encounter that underscores the UK’s efforts to counter covert maritime threats.
The meeting, which occurred recently, highlights the critical role Proteus plays in monitoring and deterring vessels like Yantar, known for its suspected intelligence-gathering missions targeting undersea infrastructure.
In a statement, the Ministry of Defence confirmed the central role of Proteus in safeguarding the UK’s maritime security. “
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary, which supports Royal Navy operations, is a key element of the UK’s strategy to safeguard offshore infrastructure, with its multi-role ocean surveillance ship, RFA Proteus, capable of deploying submersible drones to assess undersea cables and pipelines,”
the statement read.
It also noted that Proteus had previously “
been involved in the shadowing of Yantar last November.” /i]
Yantar has drawn significant international scrutiny for its suspected role in mapping and targeting critical undersea infrastructure, such as the subsea cables and pipelines that underpin global communications and energy networks. This latest encounter follows a November incident where [i]Yantar
was tracked closely by the Royal Navy and
Proteus
after loitering near sensitive undersea sites in the UK’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
Proteus
is specifically designed to address such threats, equipped with advanced monitoring systems and submersible drones capable of assessing and safeguarding undersea assets.
The recent encounter comes at a time of heightened maritime security measures, particularly following the suspected sabotage of the Estlink2 undersea cable in the Baltic Sea last Christmas. Such incidents have prompted the UK to bolster its efforts to protect vital offshore infrastructure, working alongside NATO allies to counter suspicious activity in European waters.
Defence Secretary John Healey has been vocal about the importance of countering these threats.
“National security is our government’s first duty… Alongside our NATO allies, we are strengthening our response to ensure that Russian ships and aircraft cannot operate in secrecy near UK or NATO territory,”
Healey said recently, adding,
“We know what you are doing, and we will not shy away from robust action to protect Britain.”
Большинство политиков уйдя в отставку становятся нормальными людьми, а меньшинство – нет:
Цитата:
Entinen suurlähettiläs: Venäjä on nyt todella hermostunut
Trump uhkasi eilen Venäjää ankarilla pakotteilla, jos Venäjä ei suostu pikaisesti sopimukseen Ukrainan sodan päättämiseksi.
Venäjä on nyt todella hermostunut, arvioi Suomen entinen Venäjän-suurlähettiläs René Nyberg.
Syynä hermostuneisuuteen on Yhdysvaltain juuri valtaan noussut presidentti Donald Trump.
Trump uhkasi eilen Venäjää ankarilla pakotteilla, jos Venäjä ei suostu pikaisesti sopimukseen Ukrainan sodan päättämiseksi.
Trump kirjoitti Truth Social -viestikanavallaan, että mikäli Venäjä ei suostu sopimukseen, on Yhdysvaltojen asetettava ankarat verot, tullimaksut ja pakotteet kaikelle Venäjältä tulevalle.
Hermostuneisuus näkyi Nybergin mukaan esimerkiksi Venäjällä torstai-iltana näytetyssä talk show'ssa.
– Siellä oli puheenvuoroja, joissa kysyttiin, että kuinka Trump kehtaa puhua suurelle Venäjälle näin.
Hermostuneisuus kertoo siitä, että Venäjällä tiedostetaan Trumpin arvaamattomuus sekä hänen halunsa lopettaa sota.
Nyberg olettaa, että hermostunut on myös itse Venäjän presidentti, Vladimir Putin.
Venäjän taloudella ei mene hyvin, eikä se ole Nybergin mielestä sotarintamallakaan niin vahva kuin usein arvellaan. Nyberg mainitsee esimerkiksi Kurskissa jatkuvasti tappioita kärsineet sotilaat.
– Ei se kerro siitä, että Venäjä olisi niskan päällä.
...
Финляндия продолжает завидовать Гренландии:
Цитата:
Suomen maaperästä löytyy strategisia raaka-aineita, joita Trump havittelee – katso sijainnit kartasta
Professorin mukaan keskeistä on se, pyrkiikö Yhdysvallat tekemään raaka-aineista diilejä, joissa panoksena on turvallisuuden takaaminen.
Suomella voi olla edessä loistava tulevaisuus strategisten raaka-aineiden tuottajana.
Yhdysvaltojen kiinnostuksen Pohjoismaiden maaperän kriittisiä raaka-aineita kohtaan odotetaan vain kasvavan presidentti Donald Trumpin toisen kauden aikana.
Strategisia raaka-aineita tarvitaan puolustusteollisuudessa ja vihreässä siirtymässä.
Nato julkaisi joulukuun loppupuolella kahdentoista strategisen alkuaineen listauksen. Listalta löytyy muun muassa alumiini, titaani, litium, grafiitti, mangaani ja harvinaisia maametalleja.
Mukana on myös koboltti, jota tarvitaan vihreän siirtymän akkuteollisuudessa.
Geologian tutkimuskeskuksen raaka-aineiden saatavuudesta vastaava johtaja Hannu Lahtinen arvioi, että Suomella riittää mahdollisuuksia.
– Suomi on [koboltissa] EU:n ainoa tuottaja, ja itse asiassa olemme koboltin maailman toiseksi suurin jalostaja Kiinan jälkeen.
Outokumpu herää henkiin
Suomessa on käynnistymässä myös uusia hankkeita.
– Suomessa ollaan aloittamassa piakkoin litiumin tuotantoa ja meillä tunnetaan myös muita kriittisten ja strategisten raaka-aineiden esiintymiä, joita ei vielä hyödynnetä, GTK:n Lahtinen sanoo.
Ajat ovat muuttumassa.
Esimerkiksi Outokummun kaivos suljettiin 1989. Outokumpu tuotti kuparimalmia ja rikasteita. Nyt kaivosaluetta on haettu EU:n strategiseksi hankkeeksi ja siellä on taas toimintaa.
Tilanne on myös muuttunut, koska kysyntä kasvaa ja maailmanmarkkinahinnat nousevat. On siirrytty teknologian tarvitsemiin raaka-aineisiin.
Niitä etsivät etenkin Yhdysvaltojen ja Kanadan omistamat yritykset. Mukana on myös kotimaisia toimijoita.
– Mikäli malminetsintä etenisi kaivostoimintaan, paikkakunnat saisivat merkittävästi työllisyyttä, ja sitä kautta tulisi myös veronmaksua paikkakunnalle, Lahtinen sanoo.
Voiko eteen tulla diili, jossa turvallisuudesta on maksettava raaka-aineilla?
Edessä voi olla ankara kilpajuoksu strategisista raaka-aineista.
Aluesuunnittelun ja -politiikan professori Sami Moisio Helsingin yliopistosta huomauttaa, että niin Yhdysvalloilla, Kiinalla kuin EU:llakin on tarve varmistaa kriittisten raaka-aineiden ja mineraalien saatavuus.
Siitä kertovat myös Trumpin Grönlanti-puheet.
Moision mukaan Suomen kannalta keskeinen kysymys on se, pyrkiikö Yhdysvallat yhdistämään kriittisten raaka-aineiden saatavuuden myös erilaisiin Naton kautta syntyviin diileihin.
– Esimerkiksi siten, että takaamme viime kädessä teidän turvallisuutenne, te joustatte vaikkapa raaka-ainekysymyksissä, Moisio sanoo.
Keskeistä on, miten EU haluaa kehittää raaka-aineiden saatavuutta Pohjois-Euroopassa.
– EU:lla on nyt Trumpin politiikan seurauksena selvästi oma hetkensä kehittää omaa toimijuutta, pyrkiä ottamaan asioita enemmän omiin käsiinsä.
Yhdysvaltoja kiinnostavat Suomessa erityisesti kaikki sellaiset kriittiset raaka-aineet, jotka liittyvät aseteollisuuteen.
– Suuraluepolitiikka näyttää tällä hetkellä liittyvän todella voimakkaasti sotilaallisen kapasiteetin lisäämiseen.
Professori ei halua ”raaka-ainereservaatteja”
Suomen on syytä olla tarkkana, ettei se jää raaka-aineista käytävän kilpailun keskellä puille paljaille. Suomen valtion, mutta myös pohjoisten alueiden ja paikallisyhtiöiden pitäisi hyötyä hankkeista.
– Tässä tullaan kansainväliseen lainsäädäntöön ihan kaivoslainsäädännöstä lähtien: mitkä ovat keinot saada osa raaka-aineista saatavista tuloista jäämään tänne, saamaan maksimaalinen taloudellinen hyöty.
Myös sillä on merkityksensä, millaisen roolin EU asiassa ottaa.
Moisio ei kuitenkaan toivo, että Suomen pohjoisista ja itäisistä osista kehittyisi ”pelkästään globaalin aseteollisuuden raaka-ainelähteitä”.
– Toivon alueiden kehittymisen kannalta, että niitä pyritään kehittämään monimuotoisimpina ympäristöinä kuin luonnonvarareservaatteina, johon yhdistetään vähän matkailua.
Moisio uskoo, että mitä enemmän paine kasvaa hyödyntää luonnonvaroja pohjoisilla alueilla, sitä enemmän syntyy myös vastustusta.
– Se johtaa tietysti paikallisiin konflikteihin.
Venäjän turvallisuusneuvoston sihteeri ja entinen puolustusministeri Sergei Šoigu varoittaa, että aseellisen yhteenoton riski ydinasevaltioiden välillä kasvaa.
Asiasta uutisoi Venäjän valtion uutistoimisto Tass perjantaina.
Šoigu vihjasi mahdollisesta sotilaallisesta uhkasta, joka voi syntyä, jos suurvallat eivät pysty hallitsemaan erimielisyyksiään.
Šoigu myös syytti Natoa toiminnan lisäämisestä lähellä Venäjän ja Valko-Venäjän rajaa sekä sotaharjoituksista Baltian alueella.
Venäjän johtajat esittävät usein uhkauksia ja varoituksia. Venäjä on esimerkiksi toistuvasti uhannut ”vastatoimilla”, mikäli Nato lisää toimintaansa Venäjän raja-alueilla.
Цитата:
8.50
Шойгу — о стягивании войск НАТО на восточных границах Союзного государства:
✔️Мы видим, что осуществляется активное наращивание потенциала НАТО на его восточном фланге. Повышается интенсивность военных учений вблизи территории России и Белоруссии с отработкой не только оборонительных, но и наступательных действий.
✔️НАТО последовательно понижает порог применения ядерного оружия, укрепляет ядерный компонент в военном планировании, действия США и их сателлитов привели к деградации механизмов контроля над вооружениями и нераспространения оружия массового уничтожения.
✔️Не секрет, что последние годы, и даже десятилетия отмечены ростом спектра угроз в отношении Союзного государства и его членов. В обновленных в 2022 году Стратегии национальной безопасности США и Стратегической концепции НАТО прямо обозначена необходимость «глобальной борьбы» против России и ее союзников.
✔️Все это подтверждается и действиями. Политика западных стран стала откровенно враждебной. Западом спровоцирована и поддерживается кризисная ситуация на Украине. И эта борьба со страниц концепций НАТО перешла в совершенно практическую работу.
17.38
Россия предостерегает власти Молдавии от использования энергетического кризиса для силового решения приднестровского вопроса. Об этом говорится в ответах МИД РФ на вопросы СМИ, поступившие к пресс-конференции министра иностранных дел Сергея Лаврова.
"В очередной раз хотели бы предостеречь "горячие головы" в Кишиневе от фантазий на тему использования энергетического кризиса в стране для силового решения приднестровского вопроса", — подчеркнул министр.
Цитата:
16.41
Лидер Приднестровья Вадим Красносельский обратился к Генсеку и председатель Совбеза ООН с призывом оказать содействие для прекращения энергетического кризиса и недопущению гуманитарной катастрофы в Приднестровье.
"Необходимо срочно обеспечить поставку газа, чтобы избежать необратимых последствий, вплоть до гуманитарной катастрофы. Времени остается буквально несколько дней. Если до 30 января поставка газа в Приднестровье не будет обеспечена, произойдут техногенные процессы разгерметизации общей системы и домовых сетей, делающие невозможным их дальнейшее использование"
, — гласит текст обращения.
Письма с аналогичным содержанием направлены президентам России, Украины, США, главам государств и правительств ряда стран ЕС, председателю Европейской комиссии, представителям участников международного формата "5+2", а также Международному комитету Красного Креста.
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15.44
Сложная ситуация в процессе приднестровского урегулирования требует незамедлительной реакции действующего финского председательства, миссии в Молдове и организации в целом – постпред России при ОБСЕ Александр Лукашевич.
"Из-за искусственно созданного и усугубляющегося энергокризиса население Приднестровья проходит через сложнейшие испытания, страдают десятки и десятки тысяч обычных людей. Возможность не допустить гуманитарной катастрофы еще сохраняется, но времени почти не осталось", — заявил он в своем выступлении на заседании Постоянного совета организации.
Цитата:
15.42
Energocom прогнозирует сокращение на 7% потребления электроэнергии на правобережье Молдовы в субботу.
Поставщик уточнил, что необходимое объёмы электроэнергии зарезервированы в Румынии.
Цитата:
15.13
Более половины потребляемой электроэнергии в четверг на правобережье Молдовы было импортировано из Румынии.
По данным поставщика Energocom, потребление электроэнергии 23 января сократилось примерно на 4,4%, а её источники распределились следующим образом:
Пик потребления электроэнергии был зафиксирован в период с 17:00 до 20:00, с максимальным значением 938 МВт, которое не превысило прогнозируемый уровень потребления.
Цитата:
14.58
В газотранспортной системе Приднестровья начинает падать давление из-за того, что запасы голубого топлива заканчиваются. Как отметили в Оперштабе, если в многоэтажках возникнут воздушные пробки, на восстановление газоснабжения потребуется 3 месяца.
Для экономии оставшихся скудных объёмов изменят режимы генерации от МГЭС и когенерационных станций, а медучреждения (там, где возможно) в течение суток переведут с газовых котельных на котлы, работающие на жидком и твёрдом топливе. Сейчас в стационарах лечатся более 1800 пациентов.
Чтобы снизить нагрузку на электросети график отключений снова продлят до 23.00. Пик потребления как раз приходится на вечерние часы.
"Тиротекс-энерго" отключат. Станция работает на газе, а запасов остается всё меньше. Компенсировать объём электроэнергии будет МГРЭС.
Когда транзит газа возобновят, на то, чтобы поднять в системе давления до нужного уровня (чтобы обеспечить всех потребителей) нужно будет около 2 суток. МГРЭС получится запустить только на третий день.
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10.53
Запасов угля на Молдавской ГРЭС осталось на 3 недели. И этом в лучшем случае.
В эфире телеканала «Россия 24» лидер Приднестровья Вадим Красносельский рассказал, что сейчас запущен лишь 1 энергоблок. А станция может работать только на особом сорте угля.
«Запасов – максимум до 15-16 февраля. Больше угля нет. И не будет. Всё Приднестровье останется просто без электроэнергии. Хочу обратить внимание на заявления молдавских и украинских политиков о том, что, мол, предлагали нам уголь. МГРЭС работает на антраците, а нам предлагали газовый уголь, который не подходит под этот процесс. Это специально, чтоб увести от темы и снова заявить о том, что мы, якобы, отказываемся брать помощь»,
– сказал Красносельский.
Как только станция выработает нынешние запасы угля, электричества в Приднестровье не будет. Вообще. А ведь сегодня – это единственный энергоресурс, который худо-бедно, но позволяет жителям держаться – в надежде на возвращение газа.
Цитата:
10.41
Дереинтеграция.
Режиму Санду, от которого в первый срок этой президентки за границу навсегда сбежали даже с правого берега четверть миллиона человек (10% населения), который проиграл выборы и референдум в Молдове, но продолжает изо всех сил цепляться за власть, нечего предложить Приднестровью, кроме ненависти и репрессий.
Такое мнение выразил молдавский политолог Дмитрий Чубашенко.
"Когда этот кризис будет разрешен — а он когда-то будет разрешен, - в коллективной памяти населения Левобережья останется то, что в разгар зимы (хорошо, что она мягкая) захватившие власть в Кишиневе граждане Румынии и марионетки ЕС/НАТО оставили людей без газа, тепла, с веерными отключениями электроэнергии и закрытыми предприятиями",
- уверен эксперт.
Цитата:
10.32
Красносельский: если бы не молдавские политики с их комбинациями, газ в Приднестровье был бы позавчера.
Для возобновления транзита газа в Приднестровье нужно только желание руководства Молдовы. Об этом лидер региона сказал в эфире канала «Россия 24». Он подчеркнул, что каждый день промедления с поставками газа делает ситуацию всё катастрофичнее. И этом при том, что Приднестровье согласилось на все условия Молдовы, начиная с поставщика и заканчивая оплатой.
«Если Молдова будет следовать своим обещаниям, если поставка произойдёт через "Молдовагаз" и газ будет закупаться на европейских рынках, то его можно поставить хоть завтра. Оплату Приднестровье гарантирует. Все затягивания - совершенно искусственные. Все заявления о затягивании процесса со стороны Приднестровья или России – ложны!»,
– подчеркнул он.
Что до заявлений молдавских политиков (что газ будет только, если вывести российских миротворцев и т.д.), то это не что иное, как уход от главной темы.
«Всё очень просто: есть люди, которые лишены энергоресурсов, лишены газа. Это можно было сделать уже позавчера! Позавчера газ был бы в Приднестровье, если бы не молдавские политики с их комбинациями!», – сказал Красносельский.
Цитата:
10.07
Приднестровье на грани катастрофы. Если ситуация не изменится, наступят необратимые последствия.
Об этом заявил глава региона Вадим Красносельский.
«Людям очень холодно, квартиры вымораживаются, в некоторых домах +10 °C, особенно тяжело одиноким старикам»
, – рассказал в эфире канала «Россия 24» лидер Приднестровья.
Остатки газа в трубе догорят максимум через 5 дней. Это значит, что 2/3 приднестровцев (жители многоэтажек) не смогут даже приготовить еду.
«К концу января у нас закончится газ, который мы подаём в многоэтажные дома для приготовления пищи. Отопления нет нигде. Если газ выйдет из системы, потребуется 2-3 месяца для восстановления подачи газа в многоэтажки»,
– сказал Красносельский.
Уже 3 недели в регионе – веерные отключения электричества. Попытки согреться отопительными приборами приводят к запредельной нагрузке на электросети.
«У нас панельные дома, они промерзают, нагревательные приборы не справляются. Очень большая нагрузка на сети, если раньше потребляли около 130 МВт, то сейчас - 230-240 МВт. Сети не справляются: люди включают очень много приборов для отопления, потому что тепла в домах нет»,
– обрисовал ситуацию лидер Приднестровья.
Вадим Красносельский подчеркнул, что решение нужно принимать срочно. И оно – только за руководством Молдовы.
«Я удивляюсь молдавским политикам. Они берут на себя смелость ничего не делать, вот это их бесстрашие, бесчеловечность (у нас уже люди погибают от отравления угарным газом, от пожаров) просто поражает»,
– ужаснулся он.
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8.49
Глубокое возмущение вызвало в комитете "Победа" намерение молдавского правительства "проверить законность" (https://t.me/rusputnikmd/96700) объявление 2025 года на территории Гагаузии Годом 80-летия Победы в Великой Отечественной войне.
"Интересно, какие такие "разногласия между народами" вызывает Победа в Великой Отечественной войне? Или пресс-секретарь правительства Республики Молдова сожалеет о том, что гитлеровская Германия потерпела поражение? Очень странная, надо сказать, реакция на инициативу Исполнительного комитета Гагаузии последовала от говорящей головы исполкома всея Молдовы", – написал глава комитета "Победа" Алексей Петрович.
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19.54. 23.01.2025.
Молдавское правительство "проверит законность" объявления 2025 года на территории Гагаузии Годом 80-летия Победы в Великой Отечественной войне, поскольку парламент объявил 2025 год "Годом Михая Эминеску".
По словам пресс-секретаря правительства Даниела Водэ "решение Исполнительного комитета Гагаузии будет тщательно изучено на предмет соответствия правовым нормам".
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Törkeästä tuhotyöstä epäillyn Eagle S -aluksen kapteeni pysyy matkustuskiellossa
Törkeästä tuhotyöstä epäillyn Eagle S -rahtialuksen kapteeni ja miehistön jäsen vaativat perjantaina Helsingin käräjäoikeudessa, että heille määrätty matkustuskielto kumotaan.
Helsingin käräjäoikeus kuitenkin hylkäsi vaatimukset, ja matkustuskiellot pysyvät voimassa.
Keskusrikospoliisi (KRP) on kertonut Ylelle, että kriittisimmät esitutkintatoimet on jo tehty, mutta silti KRP pitää matkustuskieltoja yhä tarpeellisina.
Eagle S -alus sekä sen ankkuri ovat parhaillaan takavarikossa. Varustamoa edustava asianajaja Herman Ljungberg on valittanut takavarikkopäätöksistä hovioikeuteen.
Путину, «победа за три дня» – Трампу, «мир за три дня».
Подход везде один и тот же.
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What happened to ending war in Ukraine within 24 hours? Experts agree President Trump won't manage it in even 100 days and 'no one with a decent grasp of the matter could think that'
Donald Trump has missed his own deadline for ending the war in Ukraine - with a new goal of 100 days to stop Vladimir Putin's aggression also seeming out of reach, experts have said.
Failing to get Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table within 24 hours means the president has backtracked on a promise - albeit an implausible one - that he repeatedly made while on the campaign trail.
'No one with a decent grasp of this matter could believe that a conflict with such complex and deep roots could be resolved that easily,' Vuk Vuksanovic, a political scientist at the London School of Economics (LSE), told Newsweek.
'It remains more likely that this is a clash of interests and wills that will be resolved on the battlefield and not at the negotiating table,' the foreign policy expert added.
Despite his repeated mentions of the war in the run-up to his inauguration, the president made no mention of it in his first speech, other than to declare himself a 'peacemaker'.
In his first few days in office he has laid the blame for the grinding three-year war both with Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, and continued to boldly claim that he will secure a deal quickly, while giving fairly scant details as to how.
With the 24-hour deadline now expired and the war showing no sign of letting up anytime soon, Trump is said to have set his Ukraine envoy, Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, the task of ending it within 100 days.
'He can't. The Russians are in the driver's seat. The Russians, for good strategic reasons from their perspective, are driving a hard bargain,' University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer said, adding: 'It's almost impossible for me to see President Trump accepting the terms that the Russians demand.'
Trump is now focusing on his first phone call with Moscow, reports suggest, and when asked how long the war would last he said: 'I have to speak to President Putin. We're going to have to find out.'
Despite warnings that Trump may be 'over-eager' to end the war and could wish to do so at any price to meet his targets, there has been some optimism from voices in Kyiv and among its allies.
Referring to his country's fate in light of a Trump presidency, former Ukrainian minister Tymofiy Mylovanov said: 'It might not be good — but it will be much better than under Biden.
'Biden managed the war as a crisis — he thought if he holds out long enough, the storm will pass. But it's not passing.
'Trump takes the perspective that we have to stop the storm. He's not concerned about how it will be stopped.'
The Republican has continued making firm statements as he tries to project strength ahead of potential talks with Putin, who he shared relatively good relations with during his first term in office.
He has threatened heavy sanctions and tariffs on Russia unless Putin settles 'almost immediately', a move which would likely have little impact due to the limited US imports from Russia and the fact large-scale sanctions are already in place.
Speaking in the first interview of his presidency, Trump said of Moscow: 'If they don't settle this war soon, I mean almost immediately, I am going to put massive tariffs on Russia... I don't want to do that, I love the Russian people, but we've got to get this war ended.'
He added that there was also a strong appetite in Kyiv to end the bloodshed - but indicated that this could be at a steep cost and that he perhaps had limited patience with Zelensky's position.
'I will say he wants to settle now,' Trump said. 'He's had enough.'
In a somewhat inflammatory statement about the Ukrainian leader, he said Zelensky is 'no angel,' and even claimed that he 'shouldn't have allowed this war to happen.'
'First of all, he's fighting a much bigger entity, okay, much bigger. When he was, you know, talking so brave... Zelensky was fighting a much bigger entity, much bigger, much more powerful,' Trump said.
'He shouldn't have done that, because we could have made a deal, and it would have been a deal that would have been... it would have been a nothing deal. I could have made that deal so easily,' Trump said. 'But Zelensky decided that '"I want to fight".'
Elsewhere in the interview, Trump also said of the February 2022 invasion that Putin 'shouldn't have done it.'
'He shouldn't have done it and it has to stop. You know, they've lost about 850,000 Russian soldiers and 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers,' he said - figures that are almost certainly overblown, with war monitors putting the death toll closer to 150,000 on the Russian side and 62,000 for the Ukrainians.
With both sides counting their dead and struggling to replenish their frontline forces, an end to the war is an appealing prospect.
But both Kyiv and Moscow insist on it being favourable to them, and have demanded concessions from the other side.
'We must find all possible ways to end the hot phase of the war. This is the number one issue,' Zelensky said this week. 'There can be many talks, but the main goal is to stop the active phase. This is the first guarantee of security.'
He added however that 'Putin cannot be treated as legitimate in this situation. He has violated everything. He must understand his transgression.'
He said that if the Russian dictator were to be 'approached as an equal' in the talks 'that would be a loss for Ukraine.'
Trump said on Tuesday that while he believes Zelensky wants to make a deal, 'I don't know if Putin does.'
He threatened that by refusing to do so 'he's destroying Russia', with the country's economy failing and inflation spiralling.
'I think Russia is going to be in big trouble,' he added, saying that Putin 'can't be thrilled that he's not doing so well.'
'I mean, he works hard, but most people thought the war would be over in about a week, and now it's been three years, right?'
Putin has indicated that he is ready to engage with Trump but continues to insist on an outcome favouring Russia.
'We are open to dialogue with the new US administration on the Ukrainian conflict. The most important thing here is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis,' said the Russian ruler. An initial phone call is expected by Moscow to take place soon.
Trump said Zelensky was ready for a deal to halt the debilitating conflict, and the 78-year-old US leader said he planned to meet Putin with whom he had a 'great relationship' during his first term.
'We're going to try to do it as quickly as possible. You know, the war between Russia and Ukraine should never have started.'
On Monday evening, Trump joked about his campaign promise to end the conflict in 24 hours, pointing out that he had not been President that long after being sworn in around midday on Monday.
'That's only half a day. I have the other half of the day. We'll see,' he said.
France's President Emmanuel Macron, who has long been critical of Trump, responded with scepticism, warning that Russia's war against Ukraine will continue for the long-haul and that Europe should be prepared.
'Let us not delude ourselves, this conflict will not end tomorrow or the day after,' ' Macron said in his New Year's address to the French armed forces.
He called on Europe to 'wake up' and spend more on defense as Trump returns to power, after the President warned that Washington could stop defending its alliance allies if they do not meet defence spending targets.
Newly-appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that ending the war was a priority for the president, but would only be possible if both sides make significant concessions.
'Anytime you bring an end to a conflict between two sides, neither of whom can achieve their maximum goals, each side is going to have to give up something,' he said, adding that ultimately the decision would be down to the Ukrainians and Russians.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Putin says Ukrainian 'crisis' could have been avoided if Trump 'had not been deprived of election win' and says he is 'ready' to discuss the war with the president.
Vladimir Putin today declared that the war in Ukraine could have been averted had Donald Trump not been 'robbed of the election' in 2020.
Describing his armed forces' full-scale invasion of their neighbour in February 2022 as a 'crisis', Putin told state media the horrific bloodshed that has blighted eastern Europe for almost three years would not have happened under a Trump presidency.
'I cannot but agree with him that if he had been president, if his victory had not been stolen from him in 2020, then perhaps there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that arose in 2022,' the Russian president said.
His comments came as part of a wide-ranging interview in which the Kremlin chief heaped praise on the newly inaugurated US president, labelling Trump 'smart and pragmatic' while also signalling a willingness to approach the negotiating table over Ukraine.
'He is not only a smart person, but a pragmatic person,' Putin told state media of his American counterpart.
'I have a hard time imagining there will be decisions taken that are detrimental to the American economy.
'As for the issue of negotiations... we have always said, and I want to emphasise this once again, that we are ready for these negotiations on Ukrainian issues.'
But Putin's statement belies comments made by his own Foreign Ministry just hours ago which railed against the ongoing supply of Western arms to Ukraine's armed forces and what it called the 'illegitimate Kyiv regime'.
'Despite the increasingly loud talk about the need for peace talks, no practical actions indicating a real readiness for them on the part of Kyiv and the West are objectively observed,' the statement read.
'The issue of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government is not being resolved.'
Kyiv was unsurprisingly quick to respond, with President Volodymyr Zelensky's office issuing a tight-lipped statement that there could be no peace talks between Putin and Trump without the participation of European representatives.
Trump famously claimed following the outbreak of full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine during the Biden administration that he would be able to 'end the war' in 24 hours if he had been president.
Now almost a week into his second presidency, the conflict appears no closer to its conclusion, with observers expecting the Trump administration to effectively strong-arm both parties into signing a peace deal.
On Wednesday, Trump warned his Russian counterpart that he would face taxes, tariffs and sanctions if Russia did not sign up to a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
The US president has previously warned that he could intensify the supply of arms to Ukraine if Moscow does not come to the negotiating table.
Delivering the threat on his Truth Social platform, the president wrote: 'If we don’t make a "deal," and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States.
But Trump's advisers have also hinted the steady stream of Western military aid to Ukraine could be shut off if Kyiv refuses to countenance a deal.
In a somewhat inflammatory statement about the Ukrainian leader, Trump recently said Zelensky was 'no angel' and insisted he 'shouldn't have allowed this war to happen'.
'First of all, he's fighting a much bigger entity, okay, much bigger. When he was, you know, talking so brave... Zelensky was fighting a much bigger entity, much bigger, much more powerful,' Trump said.
'He shouldn't have done that, because we could have made a deal, and it would have been a deal... it would have been a nothing deal. I could have made that deal so easily,' Trump said.
'But Zelensky decided "I want to fight".'
However, leading political scientists and geopolitics analysts doubt the capacity of Trump and his entourage to bring the war to an end even within 100 days - a goal believed to have been set for Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg.
Many argue that Russia's upper hand on the battlefield and its efforts to build stronger economic and political ties with other powers in the face of the West's sanctions mean that Kremlin is coming to the negotiating table with a strong hand of cards.
Renowned political scientist and proponent of the realist philosophy of great power politics John Mearsheimer said earlier this week: 'The Russians are in the driver's seat. The Russians, for good strategic reasons from their perspective, are driving a hard bargain.
'It's almost impossible for me to see President Trump accepting the terms that the Russians demand.'
But there has been some optimism from voices in Kyiv and among its allies.
Referring to his country's fate in light of a Trump presidency, former Ukrainian minister Tymofiy Mylovanov said: 'It might not be good — but it will be much better than under Biden.
'Biden managed the war as a crisis — he thought if he holds out long enough, the storm will pass. But it's not passing.
'Trump takes the perspective that we have to stop the storm. He's not concerned about how it will be stopped.'
Цитата:
Путин ответил на ультиматум Трампа.
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WATCH LIVE: Trump tells World Economic Forum he ended Biden green policies
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Лукашенко: Наши противники и враги должны понимать! Мы НИКОГДА не повторим того, что было в 2020-м!
British civil servants 'will REFUSE to recognise Donald Trump's rebrand of the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America' on official maps
Donald Trump's effort to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the 'Gulf of America' will be quietly ignored by British officials, sources have revealed.
The US president ordered US mapmakers to make the change within hours of taking office on Monday, making good on a campaign promise which infuriated the Mexican government.
The executive order, titled 'Restoring names that honor American greatness', requires the Gulf to be referred to by its new name in all official documents 'in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation's economy and its people'.
'We'll be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, which has a beautiful ring,' Trump told reporters as he announced his plan on January 7.
'That covers a lot of territory. The Gulf of America. What a beautiful name. It is appropriate,'
Mexico has ridiculed the move, suggesting that the US should be renamed 'Mexican America' instead.
And the UK will continue to call the Gulf by its existing name unless, or until, any new name becomes the most widely used in the English language, a source told the Telegraph.
Officials believe that is unlikely ever to happen and insist that the name 'cannot be universally changed by a single country'.
No renaming will appear on government documents and the new name 'will not apply to UK products'.
President Donald Trump issued an executive order on his first day in office giving US officials 30 days to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the 'Gulf of America'
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum ridiculed the idea, suggesting the US should return to a previous name of 'America Mexicana' - producing a 16th century map to make her case
Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum was scathing about Trump's plan to rename the 617,800 square miles of ocean that border the two countries.
'For us, it is still the Gulf of Mexico, and for the entire world it is still the Gulf of Mexico,' she said on Tuesday.
Earlier this month she held a press conference in response to Trump's announcement, dramatically unveiling a map dating back to the 1600s which showed an early designation of North America with the title 'America Mexicana' in giant letters.
And she said a document dating from 1814, that preceded Mexico's constitution, referred that way to the area that now includes the United States.
'Mexican America, that sounds nice, no?' she said sarcastically, pointing to a massive image of the 17th Century map behind her.
'He talked about name, we too are talking about the name.'
She was joined by cultural adviser Alfonso Suarez del Real who detailed the backstory of the 'Mexican America' name for North America.
'The fact is that Mexican America is recognized since the 17th Century... as the name for the whole northern part of the continent,' Suarez del Real said.
Former First Lady Hillary Clinton was seen laughing behind Trump's shoulder as he spoke of his plan during his inaugural address, but the announcement was warmly welcomed by leading Republicans.
Mapping companies, including Google Maps, are under pressure to change the name on their apps with nearly 1,000 people demanding action on the company's Help page.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (right) smirked as Trump announced the executive order enforcing the name change at his inauguration
Private mapping companies are coming under pressure to make the change the name on their apps but it remains as the Gulf of Mexico on Google Maps for the time being
The Gulf remains under its old name on Google Maps for the time being, but official map makers in the US have 30 days to make the change.
The executive order noted that the gulf would 'play a pivotal role in shaping America's future', and also changed the name of Denali, the country's tallest mountain, to its previous name of Mount McKinley.
The Alaskan peak was named McKinley in 1896 after the country's 25th president William McKinley, but renamed Denali by President Barack Obama in 2015 in recognition of its traditional Native American identity.
The latest change to the mountain's name will be recognised internationally as it sits entirely within the US, but Trump may face a fight in persuading the rest of the world to accept his new name for the Gulf of Mexico.
The United Nations has an influential committee dedicated to advising on contested place names, including the Falkland Islands which Argentina refers to as the 'Malvinas'.
Currently the islands go under their British name in official UN documents but have 'Malvinas' written in brackets alongside.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
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