МЧС России призвало всех граждан на всякий случай приготовить «тревожный чемоданчик»:
✔️Заранее подготовленный «тревожный чемоданчик» поможет продержаться в зоне чрезвычайной ситуации до прибытия спасателей. Это базовый набор вещей для выживания в экстремальных ситуациях, когда нет воды, еды, тепла и крыши над головой.
✔️Рекомендуемый состав «тревожного чемоданчика»: аптечка, фонарик, нож, радио, сменное белье, свисток, спички, блокнот и карандаш, сухой спирт, одноразовая посуда, запас еды и воды минимум на 3 суток, по возможности — спальный мешок, палатка и газовая горелка.
✔️Сверху и в карманах сменное белье, пища — на дно. Для защиты от влаги все надо положить в вакуумные пакеты с зажимом или в полиэтиленовые пакеты, обмотанные скотчем. Протестировать «тревожный чемоданчик» предлагается на даче.
Начнём с конца.
В-третьих.
Дача есть далеко не у всех. Например, её нет у а.п. Так что протестировать «свой набор» ему попросту негде.
Во-вторых.
Особенно «запас воды и еды на 3 суток».
Это не «чемоданчик», не «чемодан», это много «чемоданов».
И нельзя сказать, что а.п. такой Гаргантюа. Вовсе нет. Только самое необходимое.
А если это семья?
Тем более большая семья?
Цитата:
«Пожар в деревне». Н.Д. Дмитриев-Оренбургский. 1885 г.
Дело не только в том, что современные люди отучены от автономной жизни, но и в том, что окружающая современных людей городская среда отучена от современных людей.
Обобщённый человек из 19,18,17 и т.д. веков, при всех своих способностях и самодостаточности, просто сгинул бы за несколько часов в обычном современном мегаполисе.
Это - раз.
Ну, а два, это конечно стоимость содержимого такого «чемоданчика».
Десятки тысяч рублей, которые каждый год надо тратить на восстановление запасов, имеющих ограниченный срок годности.
И наконец -
первое
.
Если горожанин сумеет собрать и поддерживать в рабочем состоянии этот «чемоданчик», зачем ему нужен такой МЧС?!
P.S. При написании поста, у а.п. сложилось впечатление, что «тревожный чемоданчика» нужен МЧС как «цепь для заключенного», что бы граждане не разбегались по «тревожной» местности, а оставались при своей «тревожной клади», по которой их можно будет легко найти и от которой они никуда не денутся.
Цитата:
_________________
С сожалением и бестактными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Больше насилия — больше протестующих. Репортаж из протестующего Тбилиси
...
Надписи на рекламе «протестующих», по прежнему, на английском языке.
Если бы они боролись за свое будущее, лозунги были бы на грузинском.
Значит они борются за будущее англосаксов.
_________________
С сожалением и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
The Secret Pentagon War Game That Offers a Stark Warning for Our Times
The devastating outcome of the 1983 game reveals that nuclear escalation inevitably spirals out of control.
Nuclear confrontation is fundamentally a form of communication — even after the first blows fall. Some in government see it as a language and revel in its complexity. This has been so ever since the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan in August 1945 and the Soviet Union responded by testing its own device four years later. The ensuing dialogues have, with varying degrees of subtlety, involved tests, bans on tests, arms agreements, embargoes, clandestine and nonclandestine technology transfers and the occasional grand speech — a high-stakes conversation in which all sides have understood the fearsome price of miscommunication. These exchanges echo around the edges of a devil’s spiral. At the top of the spiral stand the preparations meant as deterrents. At the bottom stands all-out nuclear war.
The descent — in the language of nuclear war, an escalation — is shaped by grave uncertainties. How well do my enemies understand me, and how well do I understand them? Furthermore, how does my understanding of their understanding affect their understanding of me? These and similar questions stand like the endless images in opposing mirrors, but without diminishing in size. The threat they pose is immediate and real. It leaves us to grapple with the central truth of the nuclear age: The sole way for humanity to survive is to communicate clearly, to sustain that communication indefinitely and to understand how readily communications can be misunderstood. Crucial to handling the attendant distrust are fallback communications integral to the art of de-escalation — an art that has been neglected and is now dangerously foundering.
After the Cold War, the two great powers paid less attention to the matter. Surprise attacks were their main concern, but they assumed that the existing warning systems and retaliatory capabilities were sufficient to ward off such events. At the Pentagon, ambitious officers chose some other track to advance their careers. Terrorism, cyberwarfare, even global warming — that’s where the action lay.
But the conversation continued. Britain, France, China, Israel, India and Pakistan had already made their voices heard, then North Korea joined in, with Iran seemingly poised to follow, with all the chatter multiplying the opportunities for miscommunication. Now China, after years of contenting itself with a diminutive retaliatory arsenal, has changed its mind and is striving to rival the United States and Russia. All three countries are investing heavily in improvements to their nuclear arsenals, introducing new warheads and delivery vehicles, expanding into the fight into orbital space, integrating conventional weapons and cybertools into their nuclear warfighting capabilities, worrying about electromagnet pulses and stirring in heaps of subterfuge. Key arms-control treaties have expired or been abandoned, and there is little immediate hope for new ones. Having fallen from 70,000 warheads at the height of the Cold War to about 12,000 today, the global arsenal has begun again to grow, according to the Federation of American Scientists. The emphasis now is on smaller, more precise nuclear weapons meant to limit radioactive fallout and civilian deaths — just the sorts of warheads that countries might be tempted to use during a conventional battle and that also, when coupled with cyberattacks and advanced surveillance systems, arouse worldwide concerns that particularly the United States may achieve a practical first-strike capability. Whether justified or not, these concerns are destabilizing. They make adversaries distrustful. They undermine the conversation. They compress the spiral.
No one knows exactly how a war would unfold, only that the sort of “bolt from the blue” surprise attack around which all three great nuclear powers have built their deterrent structures is unlikely because of the strength of those very structures. The critical challenge now is not how to ward off a sneak attack but how to control an escalation that occurs in plain sight — for instance, a conventional conflict that goes wrong, leading to nuclear saber rattling, leading to the first use of a few small nuclear weapons on the battlefield, leading to the counteruse of small nuclear weapons, leading to much of the world sliding uncontrollably into extinction.
The best available model of such an event is an ultrasecret 1983 Pentagon war game called Proud Prophet. That game was a nuclear test of sorts, and it provided critical lessons that remain crucial today. It was unique in that by design it was largely unscripted, involved the highest levels of the U.S. military and its global warfighting commands and used actual communication channels, doctrines and secret war plans. One of its great strengths was that unlike any other war game involving the possibility of small-yield nuclear weapons, it ran freely and was allowed to play out to its natural conclusion: global devastation.
The conclusion was a shock. The lesson drawn from it — that nuclear war cannot be controlled — had a decades-long effect on American strategy and therefore, in a world of opposing mirrors, on global strategies. It may be that someday in the future a survivor will be able to look back at our times and observe that the greatest tragedy in all of human history is that among current leaders in Russia and the United States, and perhaps other countries, the lesson was forgotten.
Of the participants,
a man named Paul Bracken, who is now 76, serves as the principal keeper of the flame. Bracken teaches at Yale, often on subjects related to systems analysis and business management, but he yields his greatest influence outside the academy, in U.S. military circles, where he is sought for his wisdom on matters of nuclear war. Until recently, he lived in the vanilla town Ridgefield, Conn., where he and his wife raised their three very smart children and he walked the pleasant downtown in vanilla anonymity. I told him that on first impression he looks like an insurance agent, and that in his profession it is probably a useful look to have. I meant a placid look. A peaceful look. “Funny,” he said, because his father had sold insurance.
That was near Philadelphia, where Bracken grew up. Afterward, he studied engineering at Columbia, went home for a stint in an Italian restaurant and almost by chance landed a Beltway job that awarded him his first security clearances. This was around 1972, when he was 24. Then he went to work for Herman Kahn — the iconoclastic head of the Hudson Institute, a think tank he founded in Croton-on-Hudson, N.Y. It is said that Kahn was a model for Dr. Strangelove, the crazed scientist in Stanley Kubrick’s war comedy of the same name. Kahn’s friends delighted in his sense of humor and thought he could have succeeded as a borscht-belt comedian. His critics did not agree. He was best known for his 1960 book “On Thermonuclear War,” which many regarded with dismay because of its dispassionate assessment of tolerable levels of civilian casualties, measured by the wholesale destruction of American and European cities and the deaths of multiple millions in the United States alone. The book’s central argument was that for a country willing to take the hit, nuclear war might be winnable. People believed that therefore Kahn was advocating such a war. He answered that, far from it, he was simply thinking the unthinkable because not to do so was to be unprepared, and to be unprepared was to create vulnerabilities that would invite attack and defeat.
Bracken did not buy into the winnable-war part. He was agnostic. But he believed, then as now, in the need to think clearly about such matters, and for a few years he became Kahn’s protégé. Over a decade working at Hudson, Bracken earned a Ph.D. from Yale in operations research, wrote a dissertation titled “The Command and Control of Nuclear Forces” that was subsequently published as a book and topped things off by accepting a teaching position at Yale. He was 35 and richly equipped with security clearances. It was 1983.
That March, President Ronald Reagan gave a speech in which he called the Soviet Union an “evil empire.” To Moscow, such rhetoric seemed recklessly provocative. Two weeks later, Reagan doubled down by proposing to abandon the pact of mutually assured destruction upon which the peace had long relied. In its place, the United States would develop a hyperexpensive, multilayered shield against ballistic missiles. He called it the Strategic Defense Initiative (S.D.I.). The press called it Star Wars. It remains far from possible even today, despite Donald Trump’s recent vow to expand on Israel’s modest and ultimately inadequate missile-defense system and build a comprehensive “Iron Dome” over the United States.
Reagan at least was not a huckster. He may have been naïve, but he was also sincere, and an avowed visionary. In the speech that introduced the concepts that would lead to Star Wars, he asked, “What if free people could live secure in the knowledge that their security did not rest upon the threat of instant U.S. retaliation to deter a Soviet attack, that we could intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our own soil or that of our allies?” Then he called on the scientific community, “those who gave us nuclear weapons, to turn their great talents now to the cause of mankind and world peace, to give us the means of rendering these nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete.”
Illustration by Pablo Delcan and Danielle Del Plato
The nuclear weapons he seemed most immediately interested in rendering obsolete belonged to the Soviet Union. Certainly the Soviets thought so. Four days after Reagan introduced the initiative, the Soviet leader, Yuri Andropov, condemned it. Andropov said, “In fact, the strategic offensive forces of the United States will continue to be developed and upgraded at full tilt and along a quite definite line” — to acquire a first-strike nuclear capability that rendered the Soviet Union “incapable of dealing a retaliatory strike.” In short, missile defenses would be “a bid to disarm the Soviet Union in the face of the U.S. nuclear threat.”
Our dear Andropov. He worried too much. Reagan’s missile shield was not to be. Soviet leaders came to understand this and abandoned thoughts they may have had of overwhelming it physically. But the misunderstandings remained profound on both sides. Moscow suspected that Washington was preparing for a first strike, Washington suspected the same of Moscow and each, we now know, was wrong.
If the antagonists agreed on one thing, it was the advantage of shooting first, and perhaps — to avoid that regrettable step — the need to brandish survivable retaliatory arsenals. Despite those shared realizations, though, there was now one important difference. The Soviets had come to believe that their nuclear arsenal, though central to the country’s survival, was useful exclusively as a political tool. The Americans, by contrast, had been waffling over a wealth of choices. Bracken notes a few of them: attack pre-emptively to decapitate the enemy; launch on warning; launch under attack with enemy warheads exploding; escalate “horizontally” by shifting a war in Europe to Asia; create a two-front war by getting China to attack the Soviet Union; pre-position weapons in space; invade Eastern Europe with NATO armies; or of course, the new plan, to coolly execute a nuclear escalation with the goal of controlling and winning a limited nuclear war.
Those had been the eight main bright ideas for a little while. Each had vigorous proponents, none of whom meant to propose suicide, but some of whom were baldly opportunistic. People were grandstanding for the new Reagan administration. Turf fights within the Pentagon further complicated the scene. For whatever reason, the Joint Chiefs of Staff could not decide between the competing strategies, and the new secretary of defense, Casper Weinberger, came under fire for allowing chaos to reign.
Weinberger sought a way through the morass. He turned to an experienced hand in such realms, a horseman and former Marine named Phillip Karber, who today — bearded, gruff, cigar-smoking — teaches military matters at the National Defense University between forays to the front lines of Ukraine. Karber, in turn, engaged a Harvard professor named Thomas Schelling, who began setting up a secret war game. Schelling was an influential economist and future Nobel Prize winner best known then for his work in game theory, particularly as it applied to great-power rivalries and nuclear war. He had worked at Rand alongside Herman Kahn and Daniel Ellsberg, where among his other pursuits he had run a string of tabletop crisis games. The Rand games were thinking exercises closer to chess matches than to the blackboard musings and applied mathematics of formal logic, let alone to realistic war games.
The war game that Weinberger proposed was something new — an ambitious setup meant primarily to educate him and the most senior decision makers in the United States. Based in offices at Fort McNair in Washington, it was to be played round the clock for two weeks, continue longer if necessary, stretch globally through classified communication channels to major American commands, involve hundreds of active-duty officers and civilian officials and use the actual ultrasecret war plans and vulnerability assessments to examine competing strategies in as realistic a manner as possible. Unknown to nearly all of the participants, Weinberger himself would be included, playing his authentic role as the leader of what would be called the blue team — though behind a stand-in who would obscure Weinberger’s presence by pretending to confer with lower-ranking advisers before reacting to events. Likewise, Gen. John W. Vessey Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, would secretly join the exercise behind another stand-in.
The blue team would of course confront a Soviet red team, made up primarily of Pentagon officials, along with experts from the C.I.A. and the academic community. The third key player was a control team. The players would make their moves via connected computer terminals, paper communiqués or in-person meetings. The setup would allow the red team to see everything the red team did, and the blue team to see everything the blue team did. Only the control team would be able to see what both sides did. For instance, if the red team launched a strike, it would be up to the control team to take that in, make a damage assessment and communicate the assessment to both sides. Then play would proceed.
Paul Bracken was brought in to serve as a chronicler, with full access to wander the game and write down his observations. The designers could not have picked a better person for the job. Bracken saw the setup as genius, much as he saw its chief architect, the great Thomas Schelling himself. Speaking to me about Schelling, he said: “Tom always said that for generating situations you don’t anticipate, gaming is the best method. Why? Because somebody else is playing the enemy, and you’re not having to think up, ‘Here’s what the enemy might do.’ The problem is you can never surprise yourself.”
On June 13, 1983,
the curtain went up. The game’s rules had been worked out, and hundreds of players were in position at Fort McNair and military bases around the globe. The control team, overseen by Schelling, informed the blue team of the situation. Soviet forces were maneuvering inside Poland, East Germany and Czechoslovakia in what appeared to be a giant training exercise — but drifting westward toward West Germany. Ominously, residents of Bonn, the seat of the West German government, were starting to sicken mysteriously. Had the red team covertly released biological agents against them? Weinberger hesitated, awaiting further intelligence. He refused to embarrass himself, even within the game, by going to World War III in reaction to a medical scare.
After four days, the control team confirmed the blue team’s suspicions. The red team had indeed released biological agents against Bonn. War was coming to Europe.
The blue team moved NATO troops swiftly into defensive positions along a 440-mile front that stretched from the Baltic to the Austrian border and beyond. The shooting started, and things began moving faster still. The control team determined that German and American troops were fighting well enough in the center and the south to hold the line. But then the Soviets fired a salvo of chemical weapons against Ramstein and other nearby NATO air bases west of the Rhine, significantly slowing the sortie rate for close air support against the advancing Soviet armor. In the north, Belgian and Dutch contingents began to bow backward under the pressure.
So far, the Soviets had refrained from using even the smallest of their nuclear weapons in the hope that the Americans might do the same. But on the fifth day, as Soviet troops neared the suburbs of Hamburg and it seemed that the Belgians and Dutch were about to be overrun, the blue team reached for the only tool it had in such circumstances, and Weinberger took a step he had hoped to avoid: he authorized the first limited use of “tactical” nuclear weapons.
These were nuclear artillery rounds. Altogether only 11 shots were fired. They produced subkiloton detonations that were much smaller than the 15- to 25-kiloton detonations that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki but involved some “enhanced radiation” warheads. They complicated the Soviet push and steadied the nerves of the NATO commanders. The first use looked like this:
All maps by Catalogtree, based on an unclassified 2018 Pentagon report by Philip Karber.
The blue team’s goal at first was to control escalation, and apparently the red team agreed, although one should keep in mind that it consisted of Americans just pretending to be Soviets. Anyway, the red team fired back into the same central battlefield with its own low-yield nuclear artillery. The exchange was such that each team fired over its own forward positions toward the enemy’s positions on the far side, then widened incrementally to interfere with reinforcements advancing from the enemy’s rear. The effect was to thicken the line, though on the scale of Europe the exchange remained highly localized. By the end of the first day of nuclear war, the Soviet advance had paused, and Europe looked like this:
Phillip Karber, having laid the game’s foundation, served as Weinberger’s stand-in during the action. The initial nuclear stage lasted for more than two days. The period was surprisingly stable. In a 2022 video interview from his home in Virginia with an admiring scholar in Warsaw, Karber said of the initial nuclear artillery shells, “They made such a mess of everything, they turned Blitzkrieg into Sitzkrieg.”
The hesitation suggested that restraint might prevail and led Karber at the time to posit that within the game the short-range exchanges might not automatically force an escalation to full-scale nuclear war. But the hesitation did not last. “What happens,” Karber said, “is that people start using longer-range systems. And once you go longer range against airfields — Katie, bar the door.”
As Proud Prophet ground on through the days and nights at Fort McNair, and the nuclear artillery duels stretched farther up and down the German front line, both sides started using missiles and jets to drop nuclear devices of greater destructive power onto the enemy’s rear. The devices were “theater” warheads, not yet the big boys, though many packed about three times the destructive punch of the Hiroshima bomb. Airports, harbors, depots, supply routes, command bases and communication infrastructure. These were fair game. By the end of Day 3, Europe looked like this:
The docks of Hamburg and Rotterdam were gone, as were all the regional NATO and Warsaw Pact air bases, and Bonn, and the city of Hamburg itself, and dozens of bridges that crossed Poland’s Oder River near the East German border. Karber is no peacenik, but he said in the interview, “I myself had a very radical conversion to realizing and understanding the danger of escalation.”
Bracken, for his part, was
armed only with the authority to move through the game’s firewalls, and the chance this had afforded him at any given moment to observe the thinking on the opposing sides. There were intervals when each side thought simultaneously that it was winning, and times when each side thought simultaneously that it was losing, and only Bracken and the control team knew it at the time.
Between the two sides, a dedicated text-based hotline had been established in emulation of the famous hotline between Washington and Moscow, which as history would have it was an earlier Schelling brainchild. The Proud Prophet hotline was in daily use during the game, but distrust prevailed. During his 2022 interview, Karber said that Bracken observed that “when we hit the Soviets, they hadn’t the slightest idea of what our limitations were. All they knew was they were getting reports of a bunch of dets” — nuclear detonations. The battlefield had become opaque. “You’re operating at best at 50 percent of knowledge of what’s really happening,” Karber said.
We know more fully now. By Day 5, this was what had become of Europe:
The two large circles on the upper right side of the map indicate heavy American “strategic” warheads in use, apparently against a small naval base in Baltiysk, one of Russia’s few Baltic ports, and a bit farther inland against a nuclear-armed air base on the near outskirts of long-suffering Kaliningrad. These were the first strikes against Russian soil, albeit in a formerly German enclave separate from Russia proper. In an arc to the south, meanwhile, NATO was using “theater” nuclear warheads to hit most of the 30 bridges that spanned the Vistula River in Poland. NATO faced two associated problems. The first was that bridges are resilient when tapped from above. Notably, most of the bridges of central Hiroshima survived the 1945 atomic bombing. The second problem was that many of the bridges stood in cities, so large numbers of civilians had to die.
Over the hotline, the Americans explained that the Polish bridges, and not the cities, were the targets, and the Russians explained the same about the Dutch and German docks. Neither side found such explanations reassuring. Both sides tried to minimize civilian casualties, but they also accepted that the large-scale annihilation of bystanders would follow.
On Day 7, Europe looked like this:
Even then, all of the strikes were meant to be exclusively against military installations, or “counterforce” targets, as the jargon goes. However, the definition of “counterforce” was under pressure now to include the annihilation of the other kind of targets, called “countervalue,” which more commonly are known as cities. Karber said that by Day 7 no one was focusing much on the distinction anymore. The game was nearing the end. With Bracken looking on, the players at Fort McNair had bought in and grown genuinely angry. Paris, London, Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Brussels were already gone. Every major German city was gone. Every major Polish city. And many others. Beyond the strikes shown on the map above, Sweden had been hit, as had Belarus, the Baltics, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and American appendages including Hawaii and Alaska.
Care had been taken to spare continental United States and European Russia, but casualties had already exceeded those of World War II, and this was when the fighting still remained mostly “tactical.” Surrender was out of the question for either side. NATO’s use of nuclear weapons had adhered to NATO doctrine, proceeding through the first two required stages, formally listed as Direct Defense and Deliberate Escalation. It had now met the requirements for the third and final stage, a full-on spasm attack that is known as a General Nuclear Response and officially defined as “massive nuclear strikes against the total nuclear threat, other military targets and urban-industrial targets as required.” In other words, the end of history.
Proud Prophet finished when no one remained to fight over nothing. Communication had utterly failed. The final use of the hotline was a message sent by Weinberger. Addressed to Moscow, it read, “May you burn in hell like you are going to burn here.”
“The reaction of people,”
Bracken says now, “was shock that it had gone all the way.” The details remain secret, but the shock appeared to emanate from the game’s center — the duo of Weinberger and Vessey — and spread through the war councils of the United States, where talk of controlling nuclear escalation fell from favor and the Reagan administration turned to the expensive nonnuclear military buildup that was already underway with the hope of providing for an effective conventional response to a Soviet offensive. Suddenly it was all about emergency deployments to Germany. A thousand airplanes and 10 divisions in 10 days, the mantra went.
Bracken tries not to overstate the importance of Proud Prophet. This may be why he maintains that despite its name, the game was not meant to be prophetic. But anyway, Ronald Reagan mellowed. Tensions eased. Nuclear war did not break out. Mikhail Gorbachev came to power, and by mutual agreement the United States and the Soviet Union began steep reductions of their nuclear arsenals, from historic highs of about 70,000 warheads combined down ultimately to the current level of about 5,500 each for the United States and Russia. These remaining 11,000 warheads (topped by an additional 1,500 warheads belonging to seven other countries) still yield the possibility of mass extinction and are currently being improved at the start of what has become a new arms race. But at the time, the Cold War had ended, overnight, and the United States had won as if by divine intervention. Americans then looked away and coasted. Various wars came, some to stay, but none were even potentially nuclear. NATO spread eastward like a hungry blob absorbing one country after the next right up to the Russian border. The Russians were in no condition to resist. In America, the apparatus of nuclear war remained in place, but the subject came to occupy the sleepiest corners of the military complex. Paul Bracken lamented the change. He told me that after the Cold War, the smart money lay elsewhere.
The nuclear calm was so profound that in April 2009, in front of a crowd of thousands in Prague, the newly elected Barack Obama dared to call for the total elimination of nuclear weapons — an initiative known as Global Zero that was gaining ground, with such luminaries as Henry Kissinger and George Shultz signing on. It seems that Obama was sincere. He acknowledged that full disarmament would be difficult and might not be achieved in his lifetime. He presented the idea in part to strengthen the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and more as an aspiration than a plan, but he believed that the moment had come to take the first steps and that the whole world would be better off without the bomb. The crowd cheered. But the rest of the world expressed little enthusiasm for the project, perhaps because to live in the 21st century in a world stripped of nuclear weapons would be to live under the thumb of the United States, with its conventional military superiority. Independent nuclear arsenals guarantee independence. This was one reason the countries had acquired nuclear arsenals in the first place. Moreover, it was lost on no one that the United States, which had acquired a taste for armed interventions, had never invaded a nuclear-armed state no matter how obnoxious it was seen to be. The lesson drawn was that short of war, a standing nuclear arsenal can be uniquely useful.
Several months after Obama’s speech, Thomas Schelling (father of Proud Prophet and by then a Nobel laureate) published an article in the quarterly Daedalus in which he cautioned against rushing toward a mirage before considering the possible consequences. He noted, for instance, that in a nuclear-disarmed world, “former” nuclear powers would become “latent” nuclear powers, each with the ability to reconstitute its arsenal quickly in the event of a crisis. In the resulting race, the winner, enjoying a brief advantage as the world’s sole possessor of nuclear weapons in the midst of a crisis, would be strongly motivated to use them.
But no worry. Global Zero was never to occur. Beyond Prague, after signing a modest nuclear-arms-reduction treaty with the Russians (named New START), Obama came up in 2010 against a group of hard-nosed senators, tough old politicos strengthened by Pentagon players and backroom lobbyists, who trapped him in his rhetoric and forced him to launch a broad nuclear-modernization initiative as their price for agreeing to the treaty. Benjamin Rhodes, Obama’s brilliant national-security deputy, ruefully admitted to me that the White House had been played. Within weeks of the ratification, Obama requested $80 billion to pursue the modernization — the start of an estimated $1.7 trillion long-term investment that continues today. Modernization is code for improvements in the resilience, accuracy and overall lethality of the arsenal. So, superficially it was strange. Even while complying with a treaty that required reductions in the number of deployed strategic warheads, the United States moved to improve its nuclear warfighting capability. Official mention of a nuclear-free future faded away. The American people remained mostly disengaged, because nuclear war had come to seem obsolete and somehow unreal.
But close observers were concerned. The United States was not the only country investing in modernization. In 2012, Paul Bracken published a book-length warning titled “The Second Nuclear Age.” In it, he described the blossoming of a multipolar nuclear world — the anarchic jungle that 12 years later we fully inhabit today. Adding to the complexity of the landscape — with uncharted possibilities for confusion in countries like North Korea, Pakistan and Iran — is the huge strategic complication of China’s arrival as a major power.
The Chinese are tight-lipped about the program, so their reasoning is not entirely clear to outsiders, but it seems likely that they had grown concerned about what amounted to revolutionary advances in the American arsenal: drastic improvements in remote sensing and real-time intelligence gathering; drastic improvements in targeting accuracy; the accompanying reduction of required explosive yields; the subsequent reductions in radioactive fallout; the integration of conventional “smart” weapons, stealth, cyberwarfare and advanced technologies of many sorts into offensive strategic capabilities both in space and on the ground. From China’s perspective, mutual destruction was far from assured.
In other words, 30 years after the catastrophic end to Proud Prophet, the specter of “limited nuclear war” had returned. The worry now for China was that the United States seemed to be on the cusp of gaining such superiority that it could succeed with a sudden disarming attack that would destroy China’s meager arsenal without worry that China could shoot back. Speaking of America’s new capabilities as if addressing not just China but all of our nuclear-armed opponents, Bracken said to me: “Please don’t assume this is a plan to kill you. We are in the midst of a crazy revolution.” But an ominous one too. The writer and former Rand analyst Benjamin Schwarz made the parallel point to me that whether the American pursuit of nuclear dominance was intentional or the unplanned effect of a bureaucracy’s just doing its thing, dominance is the opposite of deterrence, and the outcome has been destabilizing. It hardly matters that the United States has no intention of striking first. What matters between nuclear powers, Schwarz said, is what the other guy thinks.
Then there is the MAGA factor. The Obama and Biden administrations were creatures of convention, and plenty dangerous as such, but they were therefore steady as well. The problem with Donald Trump, at least in terms of preventing nuclear Armageddon, is not that he is a warmonger, but that he is supremely unsteady.
Ronald Reagan famously said, “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Trump’s own views on the matter have long been subject to interpretation, or misinterpretation. According to Bob Woodward and Robert Costa in their book “Peril,” China was becoming increasingly concerned about the prospect of a secret U.S. strike in the run-up to the 2020 election. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, called his Chinese counterpart to assure him that no such plans were in effect. But during the waning days of the Trump administration, after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, Milley had to call his Chinese counterpart again, this time to assure him that despite Trump’s apparent instability, the United States itself remained stable. Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the House and second in line to the presidency, called Milley with her own questions: What precautions were available to prevent an unstable president from initiating hostilities or accessing nuclear launch codes? Milley convened a meeting and advised officers in the nuclear chain to inform him immediately of any orders to launch nuclear weapons.
Playing the nuclear madman is a risky but sometimes rational ploy in international communications. Richard Nixon used it in his futile attempt to stave off the American rout in Vietnam. His adversaries were not convinced. But no matter how distrusted Nixon may have been, no matter how immoral or sad or self-destructive, no one could have believed that he was irrational or crazy. Trump is different. In 2017, he traded schoolyard insults with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, and publicly threatened North Korea with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” Coming from him, this seemed less bluff than threat, and dangerously self-aggrandizing. It has since been reported, in a book by the Times reporter Michael S. Schmidt, that Trump also discussed a pre-emptive nuclear strike. His idea, he told his aides, was to blame some other country for the act. He was talked down by his chief of staff, John F. Kelly, a retired Marine Corps general. The clear communications required to tamp down nuclear escalation require consistency, focus, trustworthiness and coherence. These are traits that seem to be absent in Trump’s makeup. As an isolationist, he may be less likely than others to rush into a war, but he is also demonstrably ill equipped to manage the crisis once an unintended war breaks out.
Bruce Blair, an
Air Force missileer turned nuclear critic who died in 2020, highlighted the distinction between deterrence and warfighting. In a 2020 essay for The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on the role of the president in fighting a nuclear war, he wrote: “Enabling the president to intelligently determine a course of action does not mean that a warfighting strategy of escalation dominance can or should be pursued. The basic challenge is to build capacity to assure an appropriate response to nuclear aggression. This would buttress basic deterrence. Exquisite nuclear warfighting is the stuff of armchair strategists living in some parallel universe, not the real world.”
The danger, as Blair knew, is that many of those armchair strategists occupy offices in the Pentagon. Blair was an idealist, an abolitionist and one of the founders of Global Zero. He was also a missileer who knew the score. He understood that the first order of business has to be the avoidance of nuclear war, an imperative that — cruel irony — requires a credible threat of nuclear retaliation. Nuclear retaliation is not quite the same as nuclear warfighting, but it deploys all the same tools. The dilemma is inherent. A related problem is that deterring a nuclear war requires orderly preparations for the fight, and the fight when it comes is never orderly.
Paul Bracken explained the manner in which preparations for nuclear deterrence and war are crafted in Washington. He described the process as a ritual. First, he said, you draw up plans specifying the delivery systems — for instance, the ever-popular triad of bombers, submarines and silo-based heavy missiles. You add a mix of warheads and the communication channels that allow the weapons to be used. You also establish a formal chain of command and a scheme for the continuity of government.
Illustration by Pablo Delcan and Danielle Del Plato
Then comes the operational stage. This is where you try to practice what you preach, testing the hardware that you have acquired and rehearsing the procedures that you have put in place. You get fluent with executions — for instance, missile launch procedures, or coordinated force deployments large and small, or the emergency evacuation of a surrogate cabinet. Privately, you may harbor doubts, but you do not write them up. Unstressed, the machinery seems impressive.
Then comes reality. Unexpected things happen, and lessons are learned from them but the conclusions are not necessarily discussed. People speak frankly around the hallway water cooler, but if they are ambitious, they do not pass their opinions up the chain. Why risk sounding naïve when you can assume that your superiors already know? Take command and control, the theoretically resilient communications network at the heart of the entire nuclear construct. Bracken points out that with the country under attack during the relative pinprick events of Sept. 11, 2001, the system failed and left the commander in chief, George W. Bush, to wander the skies aboard Air Force One, cut off from communication with Washington, unable even to make phone calls and dependent on intermittent reception of local television stations for the news. Bracken characterized the national security response to the attacks as “mashed potatoes.”
Communications are said to be better now, but Bracken seems quietly unconvinced. Such skepticism is widespread but generally hidden. There is a sense that it would be perilous to express doubts about even the most obvious of our nuclear weaknesses. Take, for example, our insistence on the right of nuclear first use to defend our allies. This is supposed to be the glue that holds the world together, part of “extended” deterrence — our proffered nuclear umbrella. But does anyone truly believe that the United States would follow through? In 1961, John F. Kennedy went to France to discuss, among other matters, Charles de Gaulle’s decision to build an independent nuclear arsenal. America was asking why the nuclear deterrence that it generously offered was seen to be insufficient. De Gaulle answered with a related question: Was America really willing to trade New York for Paris?
More important, did the Soviet really believe that to be true?
“That is the problem with extended deterrence,” Christopher Layne, a professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University, told me. “You have to assure your allies that you will do something incredibly irrational and risk committing national suicide. And you have to deter your adversaries by making them believe that you’re willing to take these risks to protect not your homeland but someone else’s homeland. Or in the case of Japan, some worthless rock piles in the southeast part of the East China Sea. I mean, we say we will defend the Senkaku Islands, but will we? Will we defend Taiwan? At the risk of our cities? Nobody really knows.”
Bracken flagged what he called the “transcendental madness” of the whole enterprise. He said: “Sometimes the only way to deal with it is with humor. ‘Dr. Strangelove’ started out as a serious movie about nuclear war, and Kubrick just couldn’t do it. So he turned it into a dark comedy.” But Bracken is not laughing. He believes that the nuclear modernization currently underway is necessary but misguided. He said, for instance: “Building a harder command-and-control system using blockchain so we can get the ‘go’ code to the missile forces is an improvement on one of the most fantastically unlikely scenarios that anyone can dream up. I’m at least looking at real-world threats and dangerous pathways to nuclear war. I don’t think a bolt from the blue is one of those. So I’m looking at the right problems, with inadequate skills perhaps, but the Pentagon is applying high levels of skills to the wrong problem.”
History shows that deterrence often fails and that countries can maneuver themselves into corners where they have no choice but to enter into wars they cannot win, wars of assured self-destruction. Now we are entering an era where nuclear arms control is an open question, nonproliferation has failed, conventional conflicts are spreading, overwrought nationalism is on the rise, the use of small nuclear weapons again seems possible, deterrence is weakening and fools dream of managing nuclear escalation in the midst of battle. Nuclear war in some form seems to be coming to the neighborhood. There is little sign that changes are being pursued to lower the risk. There is no reason to panic, but Katie, bar the door.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Замечательная и конечно жутковатая иллюстрация известного нам из Теории Рекламы принципа, который гласит, что
либерал движется из своего реального прошлого в чужое сказочное будущее
:
Цитата:
Disney fans want their ashes spread at parks. It’s a forbidden ritual.
Is it the happiest final resting place on Earth?
Every year, millions of people seek an escape from the real world at Disney theme parks. Some love the destinations so much they want to stick around forever.
For decades, stories about surreptitious memorials, covert dumping of remains and ride shutdowns attributed to ashes have become ghoulish pieces of Disney lore. Most recently, social media users claimed the Haunted Mansion ride at Florida’s Magic Kingdom was evacuated Saturday after someone allegedly dumped human ashes. Disney did not respond to a request for comment about the reports.
A few have admitted publicly to leaving remains of friends or family members behind with a castle view. Actress and “The View” co-host Whoopi Goldberg recently revealed she spread her mother’s ashes on a Disneyland ride. Pop star and “Wicked” actress Ariana Grande said last month that her own mother has asked to be dusted over Walt Disney World.
The happiest place on Earth may seem like a perfect fit for the afterlife — especially for those who are avid living fans. But at Disney, it’s a wish that will not be granted.
“They can’t allow that; they can’t encourage it,” said Ken Pellman, a former custodial worker at Disney, who co-hosts an unofficial Disneyland podcast called “The Sweep Spot.” “If they know it’s happening, they have to stop it.”
Disney won’t discuss the practice. Representatives for Walt Disney World Resort did not respond to questions for this story — nor did they acknowledge several other requests over the past two years. A Disneyland spokesman told the Los Angeles Times in 2007 that people occasionally ask for permission to spread ashes, to no avail.
In an emailed statement responding to questions about a reported ash drop on a Star Wars ride earlier this year, Disneyland would only say: “This type of behavior is strictly prohibited and unlawful. Guests who attempt to do so will be escorted off property.”
Human ashes are not on the company’s list of prohibited items, but a 2018 news story and 2014 funeral industry publication write-up say that cremated remains were banned under official park rules. California health and safety codes say anyone who spreads cremated remains in the state needs written permission of a property owner — and could be fined $500 or jailed for six months if they violate the rule.
Still, it doesn’t stop fans from trying. The practice made front-page news in the Wall Street Journal in 2018, with the headline: “Disney World’s Big Secret: It’s a Favorite Spot to Scatter Family Ashes.” Citing unnamed custodians and multiple ash scatterers, the paper reported at the time that cremains were dumped roughly once a month.
Cinderella's Castle is a popular spot for people wanting to spread the ashes of a loved one. (John Raoux/AP)
‘Swept up into a dust pan or vacuumed up’
Leesa Johnson, who runs the Walt’s Chili Bowl YouTube channel and said she briefly worked at Disneyland in 2019, said she was warned about the possibility during her training. In 2022, she posted a video on the topic — with some tips for depositing ashes discreetly during park visits.
“They were very bothered and upset that people would do that, like you’re going to get caught,” she said in an interview shortly after she published her guide. “It’s so hard to be sneaky in Disney because there are eyes all around you.”
The book “Mouse Tales: A Behind-the-Ears Look at Disneyland” describes an incident in 2002 when hidden cameras caught someone spreading a substance on the Haunted Mansion ride. With anthrax attacks fresh in the public’s consciousness, the situation warranted a police and fire department response, the book says, though the dust was determined to be human remains.
Pellman and fellow ex-custodial cast member Lynn Barron wrote in the book “Cleaning the Kingdom: Insider Tales of Keeping Walt’s Dream Spotless” that attractions need to be shut down when someone spreads suspected ashes.
“Unless you want your loved one swept up into a dust pan or vacuumed up — in either case, to be dumped in an industrial trash compactor — do not spread their cremated remains in the Haunted Mansion,” they wrote.
The Wall Street Journal’s 2018 story describes a multilevel response: After a ride is closed, park guests must be notified with a vague reason, and a manager needs to search for the detritus before clean-up crews arrive with vacuums that can capture the tiniest particles.
“It’s probably happening more often than we know,” Pellman said. “It’s not like an everyday thing. I’ve known somebody who passed away, big fan of the park, and his surviving partner told me she’s spreading little bits of [his remains] every time she goes.”
bits of [his remains] every time she goes.”
When I die in Disney World spread my ashes from the top of Space Mountain
— Jostradamus (@_certaj) July 25, 2020
‘Sneezing Ma out here and there’
Some celebrities have not been shy about revealing their own experiences.
In her book “Bits and Pieces: My Mother, My Brother, and Me” released earlier this year, Goldberg revealed that she and her brother brought their mother’s ashes to Disneyland on what would have been her birthday the month after she died.
“It’s possible a lot of her went into the ‘Small World’ ride, her favorite,” Goldberg wrote. “We were subtle about it, kind of sneezing Ma out here and there when no one was looking.” In an appearance on “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” she said she fake-sneezed some ashes into a flower bed as well.
They didn’t get caught, she wrote, but when she told a worker what they had done later, she said they were neither surprised nor “happy about it.” Goldberg warned that employees keep an eye out for ash-wielding scofflaws.
“You might find yourself escorted to the parking lot pretty quick,” Goldberg wrote. “Don’t do what I did. I’m sure you don’t want your loved one’s final resting place to be an industrial vacuum bag.”
On the “Las Culturistas” podcast last month, Grande said that her mother tells her family “too often” that she wants her ashes sprinkled over Cinderella Castle at Walt Disney World.
“I’m like Mom, it’s Christmas; do we have to talk about this right now?” Grande told hosts Bowen Yang and Matt Rogers. “And she’s like, ‘Yeah, you have to make sure that that happens.’ And I’m like, ‘Mom, I don’t want to make sure that that happens.’”
She added that the castle is sometimes a working stage.
“You’re going to be sprinkled on people’s heads who are dressed as Tinkerbell waiting for their cue,’” she said.
‘A sacred responsibility’
Disney isn’t the only place survivors seek to memorialize lost loved ones. There have been reports of ashes being left — authorized or not — at Machu Picchu, the Metropolitan Opera House and college football stadiums. Some national parks allow visitors to scatter ashes, but only if they follow a list of rules.
Homer Elwood, who owns Gray Funeral Home in Clinton, South Carolina, said that he has had families who planned to spread ashes on famous golf courses or shot into the air in cannonballs or shotgun pellets.
For the departed, he said, it reflects a mindset: “I don’t want to be on a shelf, I don’t want to be in a niche somewhere.”
Elwood said Disney could probably turn customers’ desires into a business opportunity if the company wanted.
“People would pay probably a large sum of money if they put a private niche somewhere on the property, whether it’s Cinderella Castle wall or something,” he said. “That could be a real moneymaker for them.”
Disney representatives did not address questions from The Washington Post about such an idea earlier this year.
Mary-Frances O’Connor, a psychology professor and neuroscientist who studies grief, said that the task of spreading ashes in a loved one’s desired spot can be an important final mission.
“Knowing that you carried out the final wishes of your loved one can feel like a very sacred responsibility at a time when you can do nothing more for them,” said O’Connor, who has written two books on grieving. “For people who have so much love and caring and are finding nowhere to put that, that sacred responsibility can feel very valuable and give purpose.”
...
А теперь вспомните, что в противоположность либералам, патриоты следуют
из чужого реального будущего в свое сказочное прошлое
.
К стати, в католической традиции, подавляемая патриотическая составляющая ИСО>ЕСО, в условиях господства доминирующего либерального ЕСО>ИСО начала, выразилась, в том числе, в обилии католических ритуальных сувениров, что стало одним из оснований, сподвигнувших Лютера к реформации.
Цитата:
Цитата:
Лютер / Luther
Цитата:
Мартин Лютер (рассказывает историк Наталия Басовская)
В прочем, возможно, а.п. идеалист, от того, как по здравому рассуждению описанный в статье ритуал, не имеет к христианству никакого отношения, являя собой откровенное языческое идолопоклонство.
_________________
С пониманием и отраслевыми пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Есть тактика Януковича, а есть тактика Лукашенко. Но Асад, если и был Януковичем, то точно не нашим, а, скорее, иранским. Что же до Лукашенко, то дело не в готовности взять автомат в самый главный день. А в готовности работать ежедневно. Ну а чтобы до такого не доводить нужна не тактика, а стратегия. И вот её у Асада точно не было.
Асад получил то, что заслужил.
Если что и волнует патриотические чувства а.п, так это судьба наших баз.
Договорённости с бармалеями не стоят бумаги, на которой они подписаны.
Главное, чтобы не пострадали персонал и имущество.
Поведение России - понятно.
Поведение США, Израиля, Турции и Украины – понятно.
Поведение Ирана и Китая – нет.
Иран ведёт себя в Сирии так, словно бомба появиться у него «в четверг, на следующей неделе».
Может ли с Киевом случиться тоже, что и с Дамаском?
Может, но это не остановит войны.
Если завтра у Украины забрать оружие, деньги и врага, война там этого не заметит.
_________________
С сомнениями и понятными подозрениями, Dimitriy.
Вполне вероятно, что появление подобной цветовой сигнализации обусловлено дефицитом детекторов дронов на гражданском пассажирском и грузовом транспорте по тому, что военный грузовой и пассажирский транспорт без таковых устройств, в зоне потенциального действия дронов ВСУ последние полтора-два года, вообще не появляется.
В этой связи, а п. рекомендовал бы национальной службе «Яндекс», организовать приложение
«Яндекс-воздух»
для этой части территории страны, которое оперативно собирало бы информацию с детекторов о потенциальной угрозе с воздуха и публиковало бы актуальную «дорожную военную ситуацию» в реальном времени для пассажиров и водителей гражданских грузовых и пассажирских транспортных средств.
_________________
С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
…
Одна из самых захватывающих экспозиций выставки в рамках конференции «Путешествие в мир искусственного интеллекта» — автономный магистральный тягач L5. В машине нового поколения не предусмотрена кабина для водителя — его работу будут выполнять различные радары, датчики и камеры.
Как поясняет компания-разработчик, тягач контролирует свое положение внутри полосы, скорость, дистанцию до объектов и при необходимости совершает перестроение. Машина умеет проезжать специальные участки (пункты взимания платы, зоны погрузки/разгрузки), может экстренно тормозить и совершать другие маневры для предотвращения аварии.
Такой тягач способен экономить до 15% топлива и снизить себестоимость перевозки грузов до 30%. Сокращается и время доставки грузов, ведь «роботу» не нужно останавливаться на отдых.
Подход известный и понятный.
Лифт например - у лифта постоянного Водителя нет.
Если при работе лифта случается происшествие, пассажиры лифта или в случае их гибели, пассажиры-жильцы дома, вызывают лифтёра – ремонтную службу, которая освобождает людей, чинит технику и отводит её на нужный этаж.
Отсутствие прикрепленного к лифту лифтёра – Водителя лифта, мешает нам пользоваться лифтом?
Как будто нет…
На самом деле -да.
Конечно – да: а.п., например, на опыте почти 40-летней эксплуатации лифта по прежнему месту жительства, новое место жительства, в том числе, выбирал с учетом обязательного отсутствия этого вида автоматического пассажирского электротранспорта.
Но, вернёмся к беспилотному виду грузового общественного транспорта.
Мы, в России живём в Системе ИСО>ЕСО, в условиях которой, Возничий традиционно предпочитает Пассажира Водителю.
Пассажир, в отличии от Водителя – любимое дитя.
А Водитель, в отличии от Пассажира, соответственно – дитя не любимое.
Однако, любимое/нелюбимое – Возничему деваться некуда.
По тому, что без Водителя, Пассажиру Дороги не видать.
Не бывает Дорог без Водителя.
То есть, теоретически, такую Дорогу создать можно, но действовать она сможет, только как произведение инженерного искусства.
Такая «Дорога», будь она создана, окажется очень дорогой, не практичной и чрезвычайно аварийной: показывать её будет можно, а пользоваться ею – нет.
Мечта Возничего сократить Водителя, а Дорогу оставить себе не выполнима ещё по одному важному обстоятельству.
Дело в том, что Водитель – Процесс, т.е. никаких Водителей в дикой природе не существует.
Водитель это – профессия и обучается этой профессии не Пассажир, который то же только профессия, а реальный Всадник.
Да, да именно тот архаичный участник движения, из которого после длительной профессиональной подготовки, как Пассажир из Пешехода, получается Водитель.
То есть «сообразить Дорогу на двоих» (Возничий и Пассажир – процесс Пешехода) заменив Водителя – процесс Всадника на исполняющий его обязанности И.И. Возничего не получится, по тому, что при всём неуважении к И.И. он то же профессия – Процесс, а должен быть Продуктом.
Подведём итог.
Замена реальных Водителей Всадников на виртуальных Водителей Возничего невозможна по тому, что:
- во-первых, платить за искусственного Водителя придётся Возничему: за Всадника, ставшего по профессии Водителем, платят ЕСО, а кто станет платить за чужого и враждебного Всаднику
Водителя Возничего?;
- во-вторых, убрать Водителя с Дороги Возничему не позволят те, кто Всадника прислал, кто терпеливо ждал, когда Всадник станет Водителем и кто надеется собрать на его работе свой
реальный доход;
- в-третьих, замена Водителя Всадников на Водителя Возничего потребует равноценную замену Пассажира Пешехода на Пассажира Возничего, т.к. квалификация Водителя эволюционно связана с квалификацией Пассажира и если изменяется квалификация Водителя, должна измениться и квалификация Пассажира, а если квалификация Пассажира и Водителя окажется разной, то Пассажир не имея возможности из-за гнёта Возничего отказаться от использования этого вида автоматизированного общественного транспорта, будет вынужден использовать его не по назначению или вовсе примется его ломать.
Что обессмысливает весь проект с Водителем Возничего, в принципе.
_________________
С пониманием и отраслевыми пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Wall Street Journal: Трамп хочет, чтобы Украина после прекращения огня оставалась сильной и хорошо вооруженной страной и чтобы в нее вошли европейские войска
Газета Wall Street Journal опубликовала статью (доступ платный), основанную на словах анонимных источников, знакомых с содержанием разговора избранного президента США Дональда Трампа с Владимиром Зеленским и президентом Франции Эмманюэлем Макроном в Париже 7 декабря.
👉По сведениям этих источников, Трамп сказал Зеленскому и Макрону, что он против вступления Украины в НАТО, но за то, чтобы после прекращения огня (о своем стремлении к которому политик говорил неоднократно) Украина осталась сильной и хорошо вооруженной страной.
👉Также Трамп хочет, чтобы для мониторинга соблюдения режима прекращения огня на украинской территории были развернуты войска европейских стран, не под эгидой НАТО. Американские войска он отправлять туда не хочет, хотя и не исключал какой-то поддержки для этого контингента со стороны США.
👉По данным WSJ, отправка войск европейских стран уже обсуждается. Изначально этот вопрос тихо обсуждали между собой только представители Великобритании и Франции, но теперь в обсуждениях принимают участия Украина, будущая администрация Трампа и представители еще нескольких стран Европы.
👉По словам двух источников, генеральный секретарь НАТО Марк Рютте в скором времени (дата не уточняется) организует в Брюсселе встречу с участием Зеленского, лидеров Великобритании, Франции, Германии, Италии, Польши и главы Еврокомиссии Урсулы фон дер Ляйен для обсуждения будущих гарантий безопасности для Украины.
Цитата:
Trump to Europe: Overseeing a Ukraine Cease-Fire Would Be Your Job
President-elect tells French and Ukrainian leaders he would want European troops to be present in Ukraine
...
The outlines of President-elect Donald Trump’s initial efforts to end the war in Ukraine from his visit to Europe last week are starting to emerge for the first time. The main takeaway: Europe would have to shoulder most of the burden of supporting Kyiv with troops to oversee a cease-fire and weapons to deter Russia.
At a meeting in Paris on Dec. 7, Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron that he doesn’t support Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but that he wanted to see a strong, well-armed Ukraine emerge from any cessation of fighting, according to officials briefed on the meeting.
…
Цитата:
Между Трампом – «шилом» и Байденом – «мылом», по модулю, разницы никакой.
_________________
С пониманием и отраслевыми пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Тысяча за четыре часа. Бельский рассказал, сколько будут платить студентам за уборку снега и как выйти на «полноценную зарплату»
Председатель Законодательного собрания Александр Бельский рассказал, сколько будут получать студенты за уборку снега на улицах Петербурга: з
а 4 часа работы им будут платить по тысяче рублей
(выделено а.п.). Об этом чиновник написал в своем телеграм-канале 2 ноября.
Чем больше работаешь, тем выше сумма, пояснил он. Можно подрабатывать пару дней в месяц, а можно — на ежедневной основе. «Если студент учится заочно — выйти на полноценную зарплату»
, — добавил Бельский (выделено а.п.).
Ранее вице-губернатор Петербурга Евгений Разумишкин и Александр Бельский провели встречу с представителями студотрядов, на которой обсудили участие молодых людей в уборке города. Их хотят задействовать в расчистке платных парковок и тротуаров. Тогда они рассказали, что с желающими заключат договор и обеспечат их необходимым инвентарем и рабочей одеждой. Оплата будет почасовая, выплаты — раз в неделю.
Бельский также пообещал обсудить с вузами варианты, при которых уборка снега будет идти в зачет учебной практики.
О том, что у города заключены дополнительные контракты, чтобы привлекать студентов к уборке снега, Бельский рассказал в конце октября в интервью «Комсомольской правде».
Ранее чиновники говорили, что укомплектованность дворниками и механизаторами на улично-дорожной сети в Петербурге составляет 75%. С уборкой во дворах дела обстоят лучше: там нехватка рабочих около 10%.
...
Цитата:
Сколько стоит снегопад. «Фонтанка» узнала, во сколько обойдется уборка снега во дворе
Снегопад, обрушившийся на Петербург в выходные, стал для специалистов по уборке снега настоящей золотой порой. Это не дворники при ЖК, которых неизвестно сколько ждать, а бригады предпринимателей, остро чувствующих рыночную конъюнктуру. Как признались игроки отрасли, несмотря на высокие расценки — 5 тыс. рублей за смену одного специалиста лопатного труда и 33 тысячи при привлечении спецтехники, — заказчики уже выстроились к ним в гигантские очереди.
«Людей предоставим не ранее, чем завтра»
Объявлений об услугах спасения от снега в эти дни вывалилось на популярной платформе десятки. Как правило, авторы — частные исполнители, компаний значительно меньше. Предложения по уборке снега за «20 рублей» выглядят заманчиво в своей доступности, но при детальном рассмотрении выясняется, что меньше чем за 3 тысячи рублей никто на завалы в вашем дворе даже посмотреть не придет. И точно уже не сегодня.
— К сожалению, день в день не предоставляем, заявку нужно делать заранее, все уже на подхвате. Завтра уже люди выйдут. У нас 8-часовая смена. Сначала попробуйте человека три, потом посмотрите, может быть, справятся за несколько дней, — говорит менеджер компании, предоставляющей разнорабочих, «Персонал плюс».
Если фронт работ от метро далеко, бригаду нужно встретить и доставить до места. Один специалист от компании обойдется в 4,8 тысячи рублей на смену с доставкой, и за 5 тысяч — без. Наемники русские, если нанимателю критично, могут заранее предоставить паспорта.
Своего инструмента у работяг тоже нет — лопаты, метлы и прочее снаряжение им придется предоставить.
Хоть работа и сдельная, специалисты лопатного труда свято чтут Трудовой кодекс, и обед у них по расписанию. Для приема пищи работники прервутся в час дня и в течение 60 минут будут кормиться. Заморачиваться с провиантом для них заказчику не придется — исполнители все принесут с собой. А вот выделить теплую кандейку для их отдыха желательно.
Ждать тотального избавления от сугробов от работников ручного труда не стоит — ненавистный снег, собранный с парковок и тротуаров, они, в зависимости от пожеланий заказчика, могут сгрести в кучи или раскидать по обочинам и лужайкам. Но точно не вывезут — своей техники-то нет.
— Сгребают в основном в кучку, но если у вас будет наготове погрузчик, то могут и в него накидать, — обещает менеджер подрядчика.
Подсобные разнорабочие из бригады Матвея тоже специализируются на строительстве, но возможность заработать решили не упускать.
— Один сотрудник стоит у меня 4,5 тысячи рублей, это 8-часовая смена, — говорит он.
Некоторые исполнители к организации снегоуборки подходят более гибко. В компании «Рабочие ресурсы» готовы дать людей на 4 часа, тогда вместо 5 тысяч за полный день оплата составит 3 тысячи рублей за одного человека. Но тоже не ранее, чем завтра. Предоставить им инструменты — тоже на совести заказчика.
— К сожалению, у нас тоже закончился инвентарь, всё в работе, — говорят в компании.
Формат оплаты не имеет значения — компания готова принять плату по безналу и даже предоставить в конце месяца закрывающие документы.
«Стараюсь на деньги не обдирать»
Количество работников на участке можно варьировать — все по усмотрению заказчика.
— Работников могу предоставить только на завтра, так как сейчас такие условия пошли, всех разобрали. По количеству людей отталкиваемся от ваших потребностей: скажете двоих — отправим двоих. На деньги я никого стараюсь не обдирать. Если на территории, как вы говорите, «большая парковка» и нужно в срочном порядке, то 2–4 человека в целом за день справятся. Оплата за одного человека и 8-часовую смену — 4,2 тысячи. Желательно до 15 часов определиться, с такими погодными условиями сейчас много заказов будет, — говорит Алексей из «строительной сферы».
— Мы работаем по сезонам. У меня порядка 60 человек в свободном доступе, русские и белорусы, но сейчас все разъехались на уборку снега, и мне некого предоставлять. Сегодня точно никак, — сетует Алексей.
Ребята от Алексея приедут тоже без лопат. И фантазировать с утилизацией снега не станут, ограничатся лишь сборкой снега в кучки. Техники для вывоза у него тоже нет, погрузчики и самосвалы нужно заказывать отдельно.
«Каждая следующая машина — за 9 тысяч»
Заказ техники для вывоза снега — самая затратная статья.
«Юста-сервис» от строительной базы «Леон», специализирующейся на реализации стройматериалов, готов предоставить для вывоза снега экскаватор и 20-кубовый самосвал. Первый обойдется в 24 тысячи рублей за смену, второй — по 450 рублей за 1 кубометр.
По продолжительности смены тоже можно договариваться. К примеру, с вывозом снега с парковки площадью 15 соток справятся один-два самосвала в полсмены, прикидывают в компании.
— Полсмены экскаватора выйдет 14 тысяч рублей, самосвал выйдет на 9 тысяч. Каждая последующая машина — по 9 тысяч, — называют расценки в компании.
Пригнать технику сегодня вряд ли удастся, лучше планировать на завтра. Авансировать услугу не просят — оплату будут ждать по приезде техники.
Не все владельцы техники готовы смену дробить. К примеру, Анна, которая сдает в аренду мини-погрузчик Mustang, отмечает, что минимальная продолжительность работы погрузчика — 8 часов. Если в обычное время она предлагает самоходную машину по 1,8 тысячи в час, то работу на уборке снега оценивает в 18 тысяч рублей, причем оплату принимает только наличными. Дополнительно придется заплатить за доставку погрузчика — например, в Юнтолово машину с базы в Красносельском районе доставят за 20 тысяч рублей. И тоже только на следующий день после приема заявки.
На уборку большой территории готовы выехать экскаваторы-погрузчики и самосвалы компании Nord Nerud, но не раньше завтрашнего дня.
— Технику разбирают очень быстро, вы же видите, что на улице происходит. Сегодня уже не получится, свободных машин нет, — говорит представитель компании.
Экскаватор-погрузчик обойдется в 27 тысяч рублей, еще по 500 рублей насчитают за каждый погруженный кубометр снега. Это если за наличку. По безналу выйдет дороже: 30 тысяч за экскаватор-погрузчик и 550 рублей — за кубометр снега, зато заказчику предоставят документы с выделенным НДС. А вот удастся ли заказчику принять этот НДС к вычету, еще вопрос.
Тратиться на дворников не придется — экскаватор соберет все сам и сам погрузит в самосвал. Единственное условие — чтобы габариты территории, где предстоят работы, позволяли развернуться большой технике. Доплачивать за подачу техники у отдаленные места не придется, говорит представитель компании — техника стоит в разных районах города, и к заказчику машины погонят с ближайшей точки.
Итак, что мы имеем. Привлечение одного работяги с лопатой на весь день выглядит самым бюджетным вариантом, но не самым эффективным — очевидно, что задор махать лопатой иссякнет уже к обеду, к тому же весь снег там же во дворе и останется. Самый эффективный и затратный вариант — заказать спецтехнику с вывозом снега. Вряд ли такой сценарий подойдет для частого употребления: выкладывать по 33 тысячи рублей после каждого снегопада очень уж накладно. Зато теперь понятно, почему большие снежные Хинганы высятся во дворах до самой весны.
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С сожалением и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
В Совфеде требуют усилить контроль за электросамокатами
Необходимо в кратчайшие сроки ввести обязательную идентификацию электросамокатов и других частных средств индивидуальной мобильности (СИМ). Такое мнение в беседе с «Парламентской газетой» выразил первый зампредседателя Комитета Совфеда по конституционному законодательству и государственному строительству Артем Шейкин.
По его словам, это позволит значительно усложнить использование самокатов в криминальных целях и повысить безопасность наших горожан. «Мы должны обеспечить эффективный контроль и предотвратить использование электросамокатов и велосипедов в противоправных целях. Работа над решением этого вопроса будет проводиться в приоритетном порядке», — заявил сенатор.
Как сообщалось во вторник ранее, начальник войск РХБЗ Кириллов погиб при взрыве на Рязанском проспекте Москвы. Преступники заложили взрывное устройство в самокат, стоящий рядом с подъездом многоэтажки, и привели его в действие. Вместе с 54-летним генерал-лейтенантом погиб его помощник.
Один из примеров
Ситуация, произошедшая сегодня с использованием электросамоката, наглядно демонстрирует острую необходимость введения системы идентификации подобных средств индивидуальной мобильности, подчеркнул Шейкин. Он уверен: сегодняшний случай — лишь один из примеров. «По моим данным, имеет место и использование электросамокатов так называемыми закладчиками в целях наркотрафика», — указал он.
Со словам сенатора, отсутствие идентифицирующих знаков на электросамокатах и велосипедах делает их идеальным средством для скрытия противоправной деятельности.
«Предлагаю устанавливать специальные номера или QR-коды, которые позволят однозначно идентифицировать владельца самоката и прослеживать его маршрут с помощью городских камер видеонаблюдения», — сказал Шейкин.
А.п. по доброй воли никогда не цитирует материалы из этого издания.
Но, тут как говориться, ситуация обязывает.
СИМ, в лице «Водителей» самокатов, вызывают обоснованную критику со стороны многочисленных Пассажиров из-за агрессивного отношения к ним Всадников самокатов, единственной целью которых, как мы помним из Теории Рекламы, является получение информации о пороговых свойствах Дорог Пассажира и Водителя, в условиях максимально близких к ДП.
И в пределе, конечно, к вынужденному вмешательству Возничего.
И ничего нового обстоятельства этого теракта к принципам действия Водителей и Всадников не добавляют.
К стати, пользуясь такой терминологией бомбу в самокат могли положить только слуги Возничего.
Ни Всадникам – Водителям, ни Пешеходам – Пассажирам, такое и в голову не смогло бы прийти.
И номерные знаки здесь ничем не помогут.
Зарегистрированный самокат с верным номерным знаком можно просто украсть непосредственно перед, оперативно заложить устройство и оставить на месте будущего преступления.
Так что инициатива «сенатора» (Почему они называют себя сенаторами? Ну какие они сенаторы?! «Сенаторы» - Прости Господи!) это вообще ни о чём.
Но, разумеется а.п. не стал бы тратить Ваше время, Уважаемые коллеги, если бы в этом пыхтении не было бы вообще никакого смысла.
Смысл конечно есть но, разумеется ни тот, который вкладывает в него, … нет-нет, скажем депутат верхней палаты.
Надзор за тем, что происходит на Дорогах Пассажиров, а тротуар это одна из Дорог Пассажиров, конечно необходим.
И здесь, как уже много - много раз до того мы возвращаемся к Инспекторам Пассажирского Движения.
Помните, мы много раз говорили об этом, начиная с 2018, когда был начат раздел «Дураки» и «Дороги».
Ни МВД.
Ни ДПС.
Тем более, ни ФСБ.
А именно Служба Пассажирского Движения.
Совсем другая структура.
Эта ситуация похожа на историю с пробками в России.
Наши все знают, а прочие догадываются, что дорожные заторы в России образуют Всадники, пары Пассажиров, пришедшие в города вслед за Пешеходами, закрепощенными Возничим в Пассажирах.
Существует целый класс участников Дорожного Движения, а его упорно продолжают не замечать.
Как и то, что сами заторы – стихийный аналог отсутствующего, но так необходимого в России, Общественного Транспорта Водителей.
То, что Инспектора Пассажирского Движения необходимы, по Процессу, понимают даже депутаты верхней палаты, но как это должно работать по Продукту, знают, разве что только наши коллеги рекламисты. А жаль.
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С умилением и отраслевыми пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
Уровень доступа: Вы не можете начинать темы, Вы не можете отвечать на сообщения, Вы не можете редактировать свои сообщения, Вы не можете удалять свои сообщения, Вы не можете голосовать в опросах
За последние пару лет реклама банков изменилась. Появились новые сюжеты и герои. Реклама по-прежнему — не только инструмент продвижения услуг, но и способ формирования доверия к финансовым организациям. Главный тренд, который отмечают эксперты,— переход от сухого перечисления выгод к эмоционально окрашенным коммуникациям.
Антитрендами наружной рекламы в текущем году стали прямолинейность и чрезмерная перегруженность сообщений. Наружная реклама продолжает показывать рост: число рекламных конструкций за последний год увеличилось более чем на 2 тысячи.
В компании Sellty спрогнозировали развитие рынка электронной коммерции в сегменте СМБ на ближайший год. По оценке основателя Sellty Марии Бар-Бирюковой, число собственных интернет-магазинов среднего, малого и микробизнеса продолжит расти и увеличится минимум на 40% до конца 2025 года. Компании будут и дальше развиваться на маркетплейсах, но станут чаще комбинировать несколько каналов продаж.
10 сентября – Всемирный день психического здоровья. Специально к этой дате компания HINT опросила коллег в сфере маркетинга, рекламы и пиара, чтобы понять, как представители этих профессий могут помочь себе и другим поддержать в норме психическое здоровье.
Как не ошибиться с выбором формата обучения и предстать перед будущим работодателем успешным специалистом. Директор по маркетингу ведущего IT-холдинга Fplus Ирина Васильева рассказала, на что теперь смотрят работодатели при приеме на работу, как нестандартно можно развиваться в профессии и стоит ли действующим маркетологам обучаться на онлайн-курсах.
Чего не хватает радио, чтобы увеличить свою долю на рекламном рынке? Аудиопиратство: угроза или возможности для отрасли? Каковы первые результаты общероссийской кампании по продвижению индустриального радиоплеера? Эти и другие вопросы были рассмотрены на конференции «Радио в глобальной медиаконкуренции», спикерами и участниками которой стали эксперты ГПМ Радио.
Деловая программа 28-й международной специализированной выставки технологий и услуг для производителей и заказчиков рекламы «Реклама-2021» открылась десятым юбилейным форумом «Матрица рекламы». Его организовали КВК «Империя» и «Экспоцентр».
28 марта в Центральном доме художника состоялась 25-ая выставка маркетинговых коммуникаций «Дизайн и реклама NEXT». Одним из самых ярких её событий стал День социальной рекламы, который организовала Ассоциация директоров по коммуникациям и корпоративным медиа России (АКМР) совместно с АНО «Лаборатория социальной рекламы» и оргкомитетом LIME.
На VII Международном форуме «Матрица рекламы», прошедшем в ЦВК «Экспоцентр» в рамках международной выставки «Реклама-2018», большой интерес у профессиональной аудитории вызвала VI Конференция «Интернет-реклама».
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