Споры вокруг поражения промзоны Днепропетровска гиперзвуковым оружием не утихают, поэтому самое время вникнуть в детали удара.
Удар по Южмашу в цифрах
Как мы уже говорили, основной удар шести боевых блоков с суббоеприпасами пришёлся по старому ракетному цеху Южмаша, цехам №2 и 58. Поражённые цеха занимают в общей сложности примерно 1,5 кв. км территории завода. Каждый из цехов имеет внушительные размеры: длина — от 560 до 670 м, ширина — до 130 м. Высота цехов Южмаша — около 30 м, что сопоставимо с высотой девятиэтажного панельного дома.
Вокруг чего идут споры?
Доводы сторонников успешного поражения объекта и скептиков, считающих, что никакого ущерба нет, базируются на ролике не самого высокого качества, где, кроме прилётов, не видно практически ничего. «Военная хроника» максимально улучшила качество видео и постаралась повысить его плавность, благодаря чему удалось рассмотреть некоторые мелкие детали удара.
Что удалось рассмотреть?
Во-первых, гиперзвуковые «болванки» совершенно точно пробили несколько разных объектов и, учитывая подлётную скорость блоков, уничтожили (или существенно повредили) некие объекты как внутри цехов, так и под землёй. Этот факт оспаривать практически невозможно, особенно с учётом того, что при замедленном просмотре видео хорошо заметно, как куски бетонной крыши цехов весом по несколько тонн каждый разлетаются после прилёта.
Во-вторых, огневая задача расчёта «Орешника», судя по всему, состояла как раз в ограниченном (т. е. высокоточном) поражении неких объектов. При этом, исходя из визуально доступных для оценки параметров взрыва, можно сделать вывод, что зона сплошного поражения при каждом попадании была примерно 30 × 30 м. При условной массе каждого суббоеприпаса 200 кг и скорости 10 Махов он имеет примерную кинетическую энергию более 900 МДж, что эквивалентно 215 кг в тротиловом эквиваленте.
Что в итоге?
Если считать в относительных величинах, то за весь удар на цеха Южмаша обрушилось от 5 до 7 т взрывчатки на скорости, вдвое превышающей скорость «Искандера» на финальном отрезке полёта. У такого прилёта почти наверняка будет ограниченный поверхностный эффект, зато энергия каждого кинетического блока, сопоставимая с двумя ФАБ-250, пришлась на такую маленькую площадь, что позволило пробить до нескольких десятков метров грунта и поразить подземную инфраструктуру Южмаша. Это лишний раз доказывает, что основные повреждения завод получил не снаружи, а внутри. Но даже внешние (с виду незначительные) повреждения никто до сих пор показывать не спешит.
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Цитата:
Прорыв армии РФ к Великой Новоселовке и угроза Запорожью, у Трампа против эскалации по Украине.25.11
Macron/Starmer; TROOPS in Ukraine. ROMANIA Georgescu shocks EU Globalists. Ukraine morale sinks
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Цитата:
Larry C. Johnson: Putin's SOLID Message to the West - Hezbollah Surprising Attack on the IDF
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Col. Jacques Baud: Russia's Hypersonic (Oreshnik) Missile Hits Ukraine - Israel Losing in Lebanon
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Paul Craig Roberts: Trump vs Neocons - Ukraine and Israel
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Scott Ritter on risking nuclear war with Russia; and reflecting on what if JFK lived
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Jeffrey Sachs Interviews - Geopolitics in Crisis
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Цитата:
West Panics Russia Advances; Macron Starmer Mull Troops Ukraine; Trump Wants Deescalation
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Oreshnik Transforms War, Zelensky Demands More Useless Air Defence, UK MoD Seethes, Russia Advances
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Ukraine prepares to sell Trump on why U.S. should maintain support
Ukraine wants to convince Trump that it is not a charity case but a cost-effective and geostrategic opportunity that will enrich and secure the United States.
An airman checks the paperwork of pallets of ammunition, weapons and other equipment bound for Ukraine at a storage bunker at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware in 2022. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)
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KYIV — As Ukraine prepares for the looming uncertainty of a new U.S. president, officials and business executives here are coming up with ways to sell Donald Trump on the idea that a strong Ukraine is useful to his political goals — and expressing cautious optimism that he may act faster and more decisively than President Joe Biden.
Kyiv hopes to convince Trump that Ukraine is not a charity case but a cost-effective economic and geostrategic opportunity that will ultimately enrich and secure the United States and its interests. Ukraine hopes that by embracing Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy — including offering American companies lucrative business opportunities — the new president will help ward off Russia’s advance.
Hopes that Trump will help end the war in a way Kyiv deems fair persist among officials despite views expressed by Trump and many in his inner circle that the conflict is costing U.S. taxpayers too much money and must be brought to a swift end. Such rhetoric has stirred fears that Trump will abruptly cut U.S. support for Ukraine’s military and push it to cede territory to Russia.
But officials here describe their frustration with the Biden administration’s slow rollout of aid. Many Ukrainians are essentially ignoring Trump’s recent negative comments to instead focus on how Trump was the first U.S. leader to directly sell lethal weapons to Ukraine.
During Trump’s first term, Ukraine got Javelin missiles — the shoulder-fired antitank weapons that the Obama administration had long refused to sell — which helped thwart Russian forces from seizing the capital in early 2022. Trump later pointed to the sales, the second of which came after his call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky became a key point in his impeachment scandal, to claim he was tougher on Russian President Vladimir Putin than Democrats were.
“The first weapons that Ukraine received from the United States came from a president who hates Ukraine,” said Dmytro Kuleba, who served as Ukraine’s foreign minister until September. He said that despite Trump’s unpredictability, his presidency could usher in an era of positive change for Ukraine.
To win Trump’s support this time around, Kyiv will need to create similar “situations when supporting Ukraine will be a projection of Trump’s strengths,” Kuleba said. “If his goal is to project strength and to say eventually that ‘I’m better than Biden, that Biden failed and I ended [the war],’ then selling out Ukraine is not the way forward.”
President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Intercontinental Barclay hotel in New York during the U.N. General Assembly in 2019. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Ukrainians saw the Biden administration’s restrained approach toward aid as damaging to U.S. credibility as a global security guarantor. They also grew frustrated that Biden expressed support for Ukraine publicly but that when it came down to key weaponry decisions, his team took a conservative approach, expressing fears over Russian retaliation.
In recent weeks, the Ukrainians have begun pitching a new era for America’s Ukraine policy involving “peace through strength.” They hope that message will resonate with Trump in a way it did not with Biden.
Ukrainian opposition lawmaker Volodymyr Ariev said he expects that Trump will “check out every penny we spent in Ukraine as American aid,” not necessarily because he opposes Ukraine but because he is engaged in a broader feud with the Biden administration.
“If Trump wants to make America great again, it’s in his direct interest to protect Ukraine from being swallowed by Russia because this could be really a point of no return for the United States’ image as worldwide supervisor for security,” he said.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, said it will be up to Kyiv to explain to Trump the political pragmatism behind supporting Ukraine.
“We need to provide representatives of the Trump administration, and Mr. Trump himself, with the most comprehensive information about the logic of the process,” he said. “You spend a small amount of money today to support Ukraine — on weapons, finances and so on — investing and producing. You completely nullify Russia’s military potential, and after that, you dominate.”
“I can barely imagine Trump playing along with someone like Putin,” he added.
Still, much has changed since Trump approved sending Javelins to Ukraine.
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The president-elect is surrounded by an almost entirely new entourage — including Vice President-elect JD Vance, who as a senator voted against U.S. aid to Ukraine, and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who has supported Ukraine with Starlink internet access but also mocked Zelensky and cast doubt on the U.S. role in the war.
Full-scale war has been raging in Ukraine for nearly three years, Kyiv is demanding membership in NATO — the military alliance Trump has threatened to quit — and Putin, responding to Biden’s recent decisions to loosen some military restrictions on Ukraine, has ramped up threats that he could intensify and expand the war.
Much of Ukraine’s ability to sway Trump’s views on next steps, observers say, will rely on Zelensky’s personal ability to convince him.
“A lot is going to fall on Zelensky’s shoulders,” said Scott Cullinane, head of government affairs for Razom, a U.S.-based nonprofit that supports Ukraine. “He’ll have to take on that role of becoming that personal interlocutor with Trump. … And at this point, I’m not sure any other person or personality can do what’s required except for him.”
Zelensky appears to have already embraced that reality. He spoke with Trump by phone immediately after he won the election earlier this month — a conversation that followed a September meeting in which he presented to Trump his “victory plan,” which includes a section on Ukraine’s natural resources.
Ukraine is framing its reserves as fruitful business opportunities for Americans. It points to its natural gas storage, the largest in Europe, and the presence of minerals, including lithium, as potentially game-changing for microchips and electric car industries — something that might be of interest to Musk and his electric car business, as well.
“Control of lithium is the control of the future economy,” said Volodymyr Vasiuk, an expert in Ukrainian industry who advises Ukraine’s parliament on economic matters. It is better for the Western world if these materials remain in the hands of a “fairly friendly country like Ukraine,” he said.
Ukraine should take advantage of Trump’s business approach to foreign affairs and position itself to make deals with U.S. companies to mine its reserves, he said, especially for lithium. The largest such reserve is located in the central part of the country, far from current front lines.
In total, the country has enough lithium to produce 15 million electric car batteries, though one of the sites is already under Russian occupation and another is close to the front line, Vasiuk said.
“The Ukrainian gas market is the most lucrative in the world,” said Oleksiy Chernyshov, CEO of state-owned NaftoGaz, who will travel to the United States to meet with American companies in the coming weeks. “I’m confident U.S. companies have a great future in Ukraine now — not tomorrow.”
The Trump administration, he said, is made up of people with “more business expertise.”
“I think it’s great they might consider that. We are speaking about millions of dollars of contracts immediately,” he said.
The message has already reached some U.S. Republicans.
Speaking on Fox News last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina), who has repeatedly visited Ukraine throughout the war, described Ukraine as home to trillions of dollars of rare earth minerals.
“Ukraine is ready to do a deal with us, not the Russians,” he said. “So it’s in our interest to make sure Russia doesn’t take over the place.”
Цитата:
EXCLUSIVECaptured British soldier's Ukrainian unit lost huge chunks of battleground in Russia's Kursk region as fighters were 'outmanned, outgunned and poorly equipped'
A former British soldier captured by Kremlin troops in southern Russia wanted to leave his Ukrainian army unit over safety concerns, the Mail has been told.
James Anderson, 22, was fighting in the strategically important Kursk province of southern Russia last week when his trench was stormed by enemy troops.
After a battle involving grenades he was one of 10 soldiers in the Ukrainian Defence Force arrested as Prisoners of Wars.
A disturbing video recorded by the Russians - in a clear breach of the Geneva Convention - showed the former Royal Corps of Signals soldier tied up and being interrogated.
Now another former UK soldier, who left the same Ukrainian unit just weeks ago, has claimed Ukrainian officers left James and his colleagues exposed.
The former infanteer, called 'Mike', said James had wanted to transfer, due to these issues, but felt honour-bound to continue the mission in Kursk.
Thousands of Ukrainian troops, assisted by international volunteers, are holding out in an enclave surrounded by Russian and North Korean soldiers.
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Mr Anderson pictured being paraded in front of cameras published by Kremlin-backed sources online
Mr Anderson Sr said he said his son would not be dissuaded from going to Ukraine because 'he thought what he was doing was right'
In the footage released by his captors, Mr Anderson can be heard describing his decision to go to fight for Ukraine in the Russian territory as a 'stupid idea'
Mr Anderson had been in the Army for four years, having gone to Army Foundation College as a 17-year-old
James was part of the Ukrainian expeditionary force which invaded Russia in August, stunning the Kremlin and seized almost 1,400 square kilometres of territory.
But despite their efforts Ukraine has lost as much as 40 per cent of that battleground - due to its soldiers being outmanned, outgunned and, according to Mike, poorly equipped.
It is considered essential for Ukraine to retain territory inside Russia as a bargaining chip in peace talks expected next year.
Mike said: 'There was a lack of drone reconnaissance, so our situational awareness would be compromised. It frustrated James and I, we felt like the commanders weren't doing enough to protect us.
'The Russians advance in large numbers and their artillery rains down on us. But we can't see them coming because we haven't got 'eyes on'.
'Kursk was a risk for Ukraine, strategically. We were disappointed not to have been adequately equipped to hold that ground.
'James wanted to switch units. But, being him, he felt committed to the unit we were in.'
The British veteran's warnings about the safety of friendly forces came as Ukraine fired more US ballistic missiles into Kursk.
The use of ATACMs by Kyiv earlier today/yesterday is a defiant move as it follows Russia's devastating response to its previous salvo.
After Ukraine first fired the US and UK-gifted missiles into southern Russia, the Kremlin significantly upped the ante.
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Vladimir Putin's forces fired a Oreshnik nuclear-capable hypersonic missile into Ukraine – which destroyed a weapons factory in the central city of Dnipro on Thursday.
Today's strike by Ukraine was its first use of foreign high-grade rockets since Putin's dramatic escalation of the conflict.
The ATACMs targeted an airfield near Kursk and, according to reports, destroyed a Russian S-400 air defence system, a radar station and two missile launchers.
Wave after wave of Russian counter-assaults have forced Ukrainian units to retreat from areas of Kursk and raised fears Russia could recover the entire enclave in the months ahead.
More than 50,000 Kremlin soldiers have formed up while 10,000 North Koreans are reportedly being trained to enter what could be a decisive battle.
Mike said James was a popular, respected figure within the unit and known for his love of animals, particularly stray dogs and ducks.
He was also committed to improving the welfare of the Ukrainian people. He was no 'mercenary' according to Mike.
'We were waiting a long time for our wages and it is less than minimum wage in the UK,' he said.
James Anderson with his father Scott Anderson. The 41-year-old said he and other family members had begged his son not to go to Ukraine before he joined up around eight months ago
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Mr Anderson Sr with James's grandmother Jacqueline Payne
'We were on £400pcm when behind the frontline, £1,000pcm when we were advanced and we'd get an extra £60 a-day when we were engaged in direct combat.
'If he wasn't so committed to the cause James wouldn't have got captured.
'He had really proved himself too, despite coming from an attached-arms background rather than an infantry regiment.
'Because he used to be in the Royal Corps of Signals we used to get him to fix the internet. Otherwise his communications background wasn't really utilised.
'Most of the combat is being shelled and most of the soldiering is luck, 80 per cent luck, 20 per cent skill. Nobody knows where it is going to land.
'We weren't trained in resistance to interrogation or how to cope with being captured. He appeared very composed in the video though. I don't think they'll kill him. He's a propaganda tool.'
Mike said James had deployed to Ukraine in April, initially joining the country's international battalion before transferring to its Ukrainian Defence Force.
Frustrating for its British recruits, the Defence Force only received basic military training.
Mike and James' colleagues were not part of the UK's Operation Interflex programme which has trained 50,000 Ukrainians in this country.
Mike added that Ukraine has to be 'realistic' about what it can achieve both on the battlefield and in post-conflict negotiations.
Tragically, the country is not going to get back the territory illegally seized by Russia, in Mike's view.
He also questioned the UK's authorisation for Ukraine to fire British Storm Shadow ballistic missiles into internationally recognised Russian sovereign territory.
He said: 'I think that was poking the bear, taking territory in Kursk and letting them fire Storm Shadows into Russia. So I am not surprised how Russia has responded.
'Fighting is not going to win the war on either side. There will have to be talks and Ukraine will have to give up areas such as the Donbas and Crimea..'
James' grandmother, Jacqueline Payne, 60, yesterday told the Mail 'he definitely didn't go for the money'.
'He was only paid £400 or £800 at a time and he had a well-paid job here in the UK,' she said.
Mrs Payne, of Banbury, Oxfordshire, went on: 'His reason for going out there in the first place has always been that he wants to help the Ukrainian people because he has been trained as a soldier in the British Army. That has never changed but he did say he was hoping to go back and train their soldiers rather than continue fighting on the front line.'
Nottingham University accused of 'reverse-engineering' history in 'bid to establish slavery links' by aristocratic family implicated in report
Nottingham University has been accused of 'reverse engineering' historic links to slavery by an aristocratic family after a report claimed they had profited off it.
The report claimed the 7th Duke of Portland, whose ancestors helped establish the university and who was one of its 'most distinguished benefactors', gained from 'social capital' of his slave-owning ancestor.
It comes almost 50 years after the duke's death in 1977.
His family criticised the report and claimed it raises 'troubling ethical implications of holding descendants accountable for the actions of their ancestors', the Times reported.
The late duke William Arthur Henry Cavendish-Bentinck was born in 1893, almost 60 years after the abolition of slavery in Britain.
Relatives claim there is no evidence of any wealth inheritance from slavery in their branch of the family.
A source involved in the consultation for the report said: 'The report appears to 'reverse-engineer' history in an attempt to establish 'slavery links' between a post-abolition university and post-abolition benefactors.'
The family, now led by William Parente, 73, the grandson of the 7th Duke, lost its Dukedom after the 9th Duke died in 1990 without a male heir.
The report claimed the 7th Duke of Portland (pictured), whose ancestors helped establish the university and who was one of its 'most distinguished benefactors', benefitted from 'social capital' of his slave-owning ancestor
The Portland Building at Nottingham University is named after the 7th Duke of Portland
They had been patrons of Nottingham University since it was founded in 1881.
The 7th Duke of Portland served in the First World War before becoming a Conservative MP, and then the Chancellor of the university from 1954 to 1971.
The Portland Building on campus is even named after him and now houses the students' union and other departments.
But the report found that the first Duke of Portland - who was descended from the first Earl of Portland - was appointed the governor of Jamaica, where he owned dozens of slaves in the 1720s.
It stated this position led to the 'accumulation and transference of financial, social and reputational capital to the following generations' and that other colonial roles given to his heirs helped 'preserve the dynasty's status as a powerful elite ruling aristocratic family'.
The Duke is estimated to have earned at least £3.8million while Governor of Jamaica in today's money.
Examining donations from 1875 to 1960, the report said up to 44 percent of private donations received were made by just eight patrons, all with historic links to the transatlantic slave trade.
Professor Katherine Linehan, pro vice-chancellor for people and culture, described the report as the 'first step in acknowledging these historical links and will act as a catalyst to an open dialogue between the university and its black heritage community with respect to reparative justice.'
William Bentinck, the first Earl of Portland - his descendants became Dukes until 1990
The university has been accused of 'reverse engineering' history to create links to the slave trade
But a source said the family had attempted to engage meaningfully with the writers after receiving a draft copy in 2020.
They accused the university of 'excluding' view points and 'sidelining truth', saying: 'From the university's perspective, it may be reasonable — perhaps even necessary — to exclude differing viewpoints as part of efforts to redress historical imbalances.
'However, this approach risks sidelining the essential principles of truth and open dialogue.'
In a statement, the family's Welbeck estate said: 'Slavery was an abhorrent crime against humanity, and examining historical links is essential to understanding and addressing its enduring legacy. The 1st Duke of Portland, who served as a governor of Jamaica in the early 18th century, owned enslaved people and other ancestors held colonial roles.
'The University of Nottingham's buildings were named after the 7th duke, who was born 60 years after abolition and had no personal involvement in slavery.
'We understand the university's decision to rename the Portland Buildings in Nottingham and China as part of its efforts to foster an inclusive environment for students. We welcome this renaming as a meaningful gesture reflecting the university community's evolving values.'
The University of Nottingham said: "The report was commissioned by the University of Nottingham and Nottingham Trent University to explore the role of Transatlantic slavery in the formation of the two institutions. This is in line with work being done across the sector to form a wider picture of the historic connections with UK higher education.
"The work has taken place over several years and a number of revisions were made in response to feedback received during the consultation exercise. We are unaware of anyone having been excluded from the consultation exercise or having been refused the opportunity to meet with university representatives to discuss the report.'
P.S.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
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