Biden approves Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia for first time
The move by the United States comes two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office
Russia Ukraine War Biden (Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)
Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike hundreds of miles inside Russia for the first time, according to reports.
The decision is a major US policy shift and comes after Russia warned that Moscow would see the move to allow the use of US-made missiles “as a major escalation”. With Biden leaving office in two months President-elect Donald Trump has indicated he will limit American support for Ukraine and pledged end the war quickly once he takes office in January.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has campaigned for months to allow Ukraine’s military to use US weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border, and retains important allies in both parties in the US Congress.
The Independent has reached out to the White House for confirmation.
ATACMS rockets can strike targets nearly 200 miles away (AP)
The change follows Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv.
The first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (306 km), according to the sources.
While some US officials have expressed scepticism that allowing long-range strikes will change the war’s overall trajectory, the decision could help Ukraine at a moment when Russian forces are making gains and possibly put Kyiv in a better negotiating position when and if ceasefire talks happen.
It is not clear if Trump will reverse Biden’s decision when he takes office. Trump has long criticised the scale of financial and military aid to Ukraine and has vowed to end the war quickly, without explaining how.
He also repeatedly slammed the Biden administration for giving Kyiv tens of billions of dollars in aid. His election victory has Ukraine’s international backers worrying that any rushed settlement would mostly benefit Putin.
Russia has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine’s use of US weapons as a major escalation.
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Joe Biden approves Ukrainian use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia - reports
President Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine's use of US-supplied long-range missiles to strike inside Russia for the first time, according to reports.
The decision, reported by news agency AP, marks a major US policy shift and comes as Mr Biden is about to leave office.
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.
AP said on Sunday evening that one US official and three people familiar with the matter had confirmed Biden had authorised Ukraine’s use of the missiles.
The weapons are likely to be used in response to North Korea's decision to send thousands of troops to Russia in support of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, according to one of the sources, AP said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and many of his Western supporters have been pressing Biden for months to allow Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles, saying the US ban had made it impossible for Ukraine to try to stop Russian attacks on its cities and electrical grids.
Some supporters have argued that this and other US constraints could cost Ukraine the war. The debate has become a source of disagreement among Ukraine's Nato allies.
Biden had remained opposed, determined to hold the line against any escalation that he felt could draw the US and other Nato members into direct conflict with Russia.
But North Korea has deployed thousands of troops to Russia to help Moscow try to claw back land in the Kursk border region that Ukraine seized this year.
As many as 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, according to US, South Korean and Ukrainian assessments. US and South Korean intelligence officials say North Korea also has provided Russia with significant amounts of munitions to replenish its dwindling weapons stockpiles.
Trump, who takes office in January, spoke for months as a candidate about wanting Russia's war in Ukraine to be over, but he mostly ducked questions about whether he wanted US ally Ukraine to win.
He also repeatedly slammed the Biden administration for giving Kyiv tens of billions of dollars in aid. His election victory has Ukraine's international backers worrying that any rushed settlement would mostly benefit Putin.
News of Biden’s alleged approval of the missiles came hours after Russia carried out its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months.
In the early hours of Sunday, Russia launched around 120 missiles and 90 drones in a "massive" combined air strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure that killed at least seven people, Ukrainian authorities said.
“These attacks again highlight Ukraine's need for additional air defence systems from our allies," President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the time.
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Biden authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons in Russia
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President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use powerful long-range American weapons inside Russia, according to a senior US official familiar with the decision, as North Korean troops deploy in support of Moscow’s effort.
The decision comes as Russia has deployed nearly 50,000 troops to Kursk, the southern Russian region where Kyiv launched its surprise counteroffensive in the summer, to prepare to take back territory.
Thousands of North Korean troops have deployed to Kursk as part of the offensive. Biden and his advisers are concerned the entry of North Korea troops into the conflict could lead to a dangerous new phase in the war.
The decision to allow use of the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, had been under consideration for months. American officials had been divided on the wisdom of allowing the new capability. Some voiced concern about escalating the war, while others worried about dwindling stockpiles of the weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky had been pressing Washington to allow use of the weapons inside Russia, arguing he needed the capability to gain momentum in his war effort.
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С сожалением и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
(1897) Sir Hiram Maxim testing his invention, the machine gun.[4k, 60fps, colorized]
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Поэтому повторим кратко:
1. Ситуацию на фронте они кардинально не изменят. Также как удары дальнобойным ракетами по тылам армии РФ на захваченных украинских территориях, которые осуществлялись с прошлого года, не смогли остановить продвижение российских войск на Донбассе, также и удары ракетами по Курской области вряд ли станут тем фактором, что переломит там ситуацию.
2. Главное последствие (если разрешение действительно дано - пока официальных заявлений об этом нет) - резкий рост напряженности в отношениях Запада и России. Путин ранее уже публично неоднократно заявлял, что удары западными дальнобойными ракетами будут означать прямое вступление стран НАТО в войну против РФ и даже обновил под это ядерную доктрину. Также Москва на разных уровнях заявляла, что некий военный ответ она на это даст. Но даже если этого не случится, то однозначно теперь будет ещё сложнее договориться о скорейшем окончании войны, так как уровень враждебности между Западом и РФ резко возрастет. И это, не исключено, и является главной целью выдачи разрешения. Таким образом западная «партия войны», пока ещё у власти в США Байден, пытается крайне затруднить заключение соглашения о завершении войны, которое, по данным СМИ, готов предложить Трамп после вступления в должность президента США. Выдача разрешений на ракетные удары - одна из последних возможностей «партии войны» эти соглашения сорвать.
3. Если же Россия даст некий военный ответ западным странам и, конкретно, США, то для «партии войны» это также хороший вариант, так как, как минимум, может вообще снять для Трампа вопрос о каких-либо договоренностях с РФ и изначально поместить его в повестку военного противостояния. А, как максимум, если масштабы столкновения РФ и НАТО будет нарастать, то может стать основанием вообще сорвать передачу власти Трампу, сохранив ее у Демпартии. Тем более, что для истеблишмента в Вашингтоне уже анонсированные Трампом назначения выглядят настоящей катастрофой.
Самая главная проблема в том, что переход противостояния между Россией и НАТО в военную стадию может очень быстро перейти в ядерный формат и вызвать мировую войну со взаимным уничтожением.
И тогда уже будет не очень важно как фамилия президента США.
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«Сегодня многие СМИ говорит о том, что мы получили разрешение на соответствующие действия. Но удары наносят не словами. Такие вещи не анонсируют. Ракеты сами за себя скажут. Обязательно», - сказал президент в своем вечернем обращении.
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Удары дальнобойными ракетами по старым территориям: а сколько ракет-то?
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И в условиях одобрения со стороны уже не только США, но и Великобритании с Францией бить дальнобойные ракеты по «старым» российским территориям нужно посмотреть на это с прагматической военной точки зерния.
Эйфория украинцев была при передаче HIMARS, «Абрамсов», «Шторм Шэдоу», ATACMS, но она была краткосрочной. К действительно позитивным результатам это не привело, а российские подразделения каждый раз приспосабливались (это открыто признаёт даже глава Минобороны Великобритании, говоря, что любое ноу-хау живёт лишь два месяца)
Запад передавал ВСУ всегда ровно столько, сколько было нужно украинским формированиям для продолжения конфликта и нанесения ограниченного урона России (но никак не поражения).
📍С полученным одобрением ситуация не изменится: будут бить только по тем объектам, которые одобрят страны-владельцы этих ракет и комплексов.
🔻Если эти слова неубедительны, что ж, поговорим на языке цифр (в начале ноября мы уже делали приблизительный подсчёт). На начало октября на балансе ВСУ насчитывалось:
▪️от 6 до 8 ракет ATACMS (один залп);
▪️от 20 до 30 крылатых ракет Storm Shadow/SCALP (от двух до трёх залпов).
▪️в начале ноября фиксировалась повышенная активность на Староконстантинове, что может свидетельствовать о дополнительных поставках. При этом по аэродрому на протяжении всего ноября в ежедневном режиме наносились удары с целью уменьшения этих запасов.
📌Даже если предположить, что на территорию т.н.Украины завезли новые партии ракет, то речь может идти максимум о паре десятков ракет каждого типа. Их дальнейшая судьба, сколько от этих партий сгорело в результате российских ударов последнего месяца — неизвестно. Это далеко не та военная угроза, с которой тяжело будет справиться.
В текущей ситуации речь идёт об отражении очень маленького числа привычных типов вооружений, против которых наши войска методом проб и ошибок научились бороться в зоне СВО.
❗️И это нужно рассматривать в первую очередь как политический ход (в рамках общего повышения ставок перед переходом конфликта в иную фазу), который явно будет использован администрацией Трампа для того, чтобы в дальнейшем оправдать возможный отказ от прямой поддержки т.н.Украины («администрация Байдена разрешила даже удары высокоточным оружием, но ВСУ не справились»).
Собственно, источники из администрации Трампа уже говорят в СМИ, что это решение может быть отменено после инаугурации Трампа.
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Разрешение бить Атакамсами по «старой» территории России вполне прогнозируемо и не стало неожиданностью для тех, кто смотрит на происходящее опираясь на реальное положение дел. Нетрудно предсказать и другое.
Когда мы начнём отвечать как нужно ( мы ведь начнём?), американцы потребуют снизить эскалацию давя на то, что «решение на удары по территории России давала прошлая администрация». Это старый проверенный метод, сначала нагадить, потом, если реакция противника вышла за рамки того, что прогнозировали аналитики, спереть все на предыдущего хозяина Белого дома и предложить начать все с чистого листа.
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Добавлю к посту выше. Независимо ни от чего, надо понимать, что такое решение должно прозвучать не сливом в прессе от анонимуса в администрации, а официальным заявлением – точно также как делались все предыдущие решения такого рода, включая поставки оружия, бронетехники, ракет, самолетов и тд. Пока такого заявления нет – это все можно списать на чью-то дурную инициативу, даже если хохлы реально применят АТACMS по той или иной цели, и откатить назад. И здесь очень интересна реакция Европы: будет ли Британия и Франция давать разрешение на применение «Штормов»/«Скальпа»? Передадут ли немцы «Таурус»? Для этих решений простого вброса в американской прессе явно недостаточно, и если они их примут в ближайшее время у себя – то значит Байден действительно «дал добро».
А вот для нас все просто. Если такое применение НАТОвских дальнобойных ракет состоится, то ответом может быть только удар по собственно НАТОвским объектам. В частности, по базе Жешув, главному логистическому узлу, через который хохлу везут оружие. Тогда есть шанс, что все быстро все поймут и откатят со словами «ну чего вы сразу». Бить по НАТОвским объектам придется все равно, но если затянуть, может оказаться, что иначе как масштабным применением ядерного оружия проблема не решается.
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NYT: Байден разрешил Украине наносить удары вглубь России американскими дальнобойными ракетами ATACMS
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Президент Байден впервые разрешил Украине использовать поставленные Соединенными Штатами ракеты дальнего радиуса действия для ударов по территории России, пишет New York Times со ссылкой на американских чиновников (нужна подписка).
По данным издания, речь идет об американских баллистических ракетах системы ATACMS, дальность которых достигает 300 километров.
По словам собеседников NYT, это оружие, скорее всего, будет первоначально применено украинскими силами против российских и северокорейских войск для защиты позиций ВСУ в Курской области.
Как пишет NYT, российские военные собираются начать крупное наступление, в котором примут участие около 50 000 солдат, включая северокорейские войска, на укрепившиеся украинские позиции в Курской области с целью вернуть всю российскую территорию, захваченную украинцами в августе.
Украинцы могут использовать ракеты ATACMS для нанесения ударов по скоплениям российских и северокорейских войск, ключевым единицам военной техники, узлам логистики, складам боеприпасов и линиям снабжения в глубине России.
Это поможет Киеву снизить эффективность российско-северокорейского наступления, пишет издание.
Решение Байдена за два месяца до окончания его пребывания в должности президента и вступления на пост Дональда Трампа — это серьезное изменение в политике США, пишет NYT.
С самого начала поставок американского оружия Киеву Вашингтон запрещал наносить удары по российским тылам, опасаясь, что это приведет к опасной эскалации не только в регионе, но и в Европе в целом. И сейчас некоторые американские чиновники сказали NYT о своих опасениях по поводу того, что применение Украиной американских ракет на территории России может побудить Путина предпринять ответные силовые действия против США и их партнеров по коалиции.
Однако другие собеседники издания заявили, что считают эти опасения преувеличенными.
Сотрудники этого канала признаны иноагентами.
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CША и союзники разрешили ВСУ бить по России СВОИМИ ракетами. ЧТО ТЕПЕРЬ БУДЕТ?
Ukraine strikes on Russia with US missiles could lead to world war, Russian lawmakers say
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MOSCOW, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Washington's decision to let Kyiv strike deep into Russia with long-range U.S. missiles escalates the conflict in Ukraine and could lead to World War Three, senior Russian lawmakers said on Sunday.
Two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision revealed the significant reversal of Washington's policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict earlier on Sunday.
"The West has decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning," Andrei Klishas, a senior member of the Federation Council, Russia's upper chamber of parliament, said on the Telegram messaging app.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house's international affairs committee, said that Moscow's response will be immediate.
"This is a very big step towards the start of World War Three," the TASS state news agency quoted Dzhabarov as saying.
President Vladimir Putin said in September that the West would be fighting Russia directly if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the conflict.
Russia would be forced to take what Putin called "appropriate decisions" based on the new threats.
Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma lower house's foreign affairs committee, said that U.S. authorisation of strikes by Kyiv on Russia with U.S. ATACMS tactical missiles would lead to the toughest response, Russian news agencies reported.
"Strikes with U.S. missiles deep into Russian regions will inevitably entail a serious escalation, which threatens to lead to much more serious consequences," TASS news agency quoted Slutsky as saying.
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The long-range missiles Ukraine could use to strike Russia after Biden decision
Army Tactical Missile System or ATACMS missile is fired during a joint military drill between U.S. and South Korea (South Korea Defense Ministry)
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Joe Biden has sensationally granted Kyiv permission to use “long-range “ missiles to strike targets deep within Russia, despite Vladimir Putin describing such a move as an act of war.
The weapons are likely to be used in response to North Korea’s decision to send thousands of troops to Russia in support of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and comes after months of pressure from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
He argued the US ban had made it impossible for Ukraine to try to stop Russian attacks on its cities and electrical grids.
We look closer at the weapons that could mark a turning point in the war.
Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets
The first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (306 km), according to sources who revealed Biden’s policy.
ATACMS are a long-range guided missile that gives operational commanders the “immediate firepower to win the deep battle”.
Produced by US global security and aerospace company Lockheed Martin, the missiles carry a 500lb (227kg) class blast fragmentation warhead.
These missiles can reach up to 300km (186 miles) and are tough to intercept due to their high speed.
The weapons are fitted with a specialised GPS system and carry cluster munitions.
When fired, the clusters open in the air, releasing hundreds of bomblets rather than a single warhead.
A Storm Shadow cruise missile is on display during the Paris Air Show (AP)
Storm Shadow
Until now the Storm Shadow missiles have been limited to Russian targets operating inside Ukraine, as well as in occupied Crimea. The missiles were likely used in the largest Ukrainian attack on the headquarters ofrussia"> Russia’s Black Sea fleet last year at Sevastopol.
The other missile being touted the British/French made Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missile has a much longer estimated range of up to 550 km (340 miles).
The UK has supplied Ukraine with Storm Shadows, but hasn’t allowed Ukraine to use them against Russian territory.
Manufacturer MBDA has said that the missile, which is fired from an aircraft, is designed to evade detection despite flying low after being launched.
Powered by a turbo-jet engine, the 1,300kg Storm Shadow travels at speeds of more than 600mph, is just over five metres long and has a wingspan of three metres.
After launch, the weapon, equipped with its own navigation system, descends to a low altitude to avoid detection before locking on to its target using an infra-red seeker.
On final approach the missile climbs to a higher altitude to maximise the chances of hitting the target.
What did Putin warn if West let Ukraine use long-range missiles
Washington’s decision to let Ukraine strike deep into Russia with long-range U.S. missiles could lead to World War Three and will receive a swift response, Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house’s international affairs committee, said on Sunday, according to the TASS news agency.
If Ukraine is allowed to use long-range Western-provided missiles against targets inside Russia, it would mean the direct participation of Nato countries in the conflict, Vladimir Putin said on Thursday 12 September.
Western long-range precision weapons can only be used with intelligence data from Nato satellites and flight assignments entered by Nato military personnel, he claimed.
“Therefore, we are not talking about allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. We are talking about making a decision about whether NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not,” Mr Putin said.
Vladimir Putin listens to Donald Trump during a press conference in Helsinki, Finland, in 2018 (AFP via Getty Images)
“This will mean that Nato countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting against Russia.”
Will long-range missile strikes on Russia change the tide of war?
“This is a very important decision for us,” Serhii Kuzan, Chairman of the Kyiv-based think tank, the Ukrainian Security and Co-operation Centre, told the BBC.
“It’s not something that will change the course of the war, but I think it will make our forces more equal.”
Mr Kuzan said the decision had come just in time to counter the expected start of a major assault by Russian and Korean troops, designed to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Russian Kursk region.
The assault is expected within days.
“That’s why this decision comes just in time. There are two days left,” he tells me, adding that much depended on what quantities of missiles have already been provided to Ukraine and whether the US shares intelligence information to enable the missiles to be used to the greatest effect.
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Starmer urges ‘doubling down’ of Ukraine support as Biden approves missile use
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Sir Keir Starmer has said “we need to double down” on support for Ukraine as it was reported Joe Biden has given the green light to Kyiv to use US-supplied long-range missiles to strike inside Russia.
The Prime Minister pledged that Ukraine was “top” of his agenda at this week’s G20 summit of world leaders and told reporters that “there’s got to be full support as long as it takes”.
There has been concern about the level of support the US may continue to give Ukraine when President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.
President Mr Biden has authorised the use of US-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine to strike inside Russia for the first time, AP has reported, citing a US official and three people familiar with the matter.
We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday. That's 1,000 days of Russian aggression
Sir Keir Starmer.
The decision would mark a major US policy shift as Mr Biden is about to leave office.
Earlier this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to Mr Putin in what was the Russian leader’s first publicly announced conversation with the sitting head of a major western power in nearly two years.
Asked if he had any plans to make a similar call, Sir Keir said: “It’s a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to. I have no plans to speak to Putin.”
Speaking to reporters on the way to the G20 summit in Brazil, the Prime Minister added: “We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday.
“That’s 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of huge impact and sacrifice in relation to the Ukrainian people and recently we’ve seen the addition of North Korean troops working with Russians which does have serious implications.
“I think on one hand it shows the desperation of Russia, but it’s got serious implications for European security […] and for Indo-Pacific security and that’s why I think we need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20.
“There’s got to be full support as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine.”
It comes after Russia made a large-scale attack on Ukraine on Sunday, with President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that Russia launched a total of 120 missiles and 90 drones.
Wydajemy miliardy na nowe czołgi. Bez tego systemu na polu walki mogą okazać się bezużyteczne
Budowa polskiej armii pancernej nabiera przyspieszenia. Już niedługo dotrą do Polski pierwsze czołgi Abrams w najnowszej wersji M1A2SEPv3. Polskie wojsko ma otrzymać 250 Abramsów w tej odmianie. Dobrych informacji dla czołgistów jest zresztą więcej...
• Polska nadrabia braki w sprzęcie pancernym, które wynikły z przekazania ponad 300 czołgów Ukrainie.
• Do końca roku będziemy mieć na uzbrojeniu 433 czołgi. Prawie dwa razy tyle, ile sprawnych czołgów mają Niemcy.
• Doświadczenia wojny w Ukrainie pokazują, że Abramsy czy Leopardy nie są niezniszczalne. Mogą jednak być o wiele bezpieczniejsze dla załóg.
... Czołgi Abrams M1A2SEPv3, które płyną już do Polski, to efekt umowy podpisanej w 2022 r. z rządem USA - na 250 takich pancernych pojazdów.
Kontrakt o wartości 4,75 mld dol.
obejmuje również zakup 26 wozów zabezpieczenia technicznego M88A2 Hercules, 17 mostów towarzyszących M1074 Joint Assault Bridge, pakiet szkoleniowy i logistyczny oraz zapas amunicji.
Czołgi te mieliśmy otrzymać na początku 2025 r., lecz termin został przyspieszony. Dodajmy, że w tym roku trafiły do Polski czołgi w starszej wersji - Abrams M1A, których - zgodnie z umową zatwierdzoną przez Ministerstwo Obrony Narodowej na początku 2023 r. - mamy 116 szt.
Umowę wyceniono na ok. 1,4 mld dol. netto,
z czego blisko 200 mln dol. pochodzi ze strony amerykańskiej (w ramach przyznanych Polsce środków pomocowych).
Wkrótce zatem Abramsy stanowić będą prawie połowę liczby innych czołgów, które przekazaliśmy Ukrainie. A przecież na tym nie koniec. Sekretarz stanu w Ministerstwie Obrony Narodowej Paweł Bejda poinformował, że z końcem października dotarł do Polski kolejny transport czołgów K2 Black Panther.
Było ich 6 szt., ale - zliczając kropelkowe dostawy z Korei Południowej - mamy już na uzbrojeniu 62 czołgi K2 (ze 180 zamówionych w ramach pierwszej umowy wykonawczej podpisanej w 2022 r.). Zapłacimy za nie prawie 3,4 mld dol. Jeszcze w tym roku do Polski powinny zaś trafić 22 czołgi K2, a kolejne 96 - w roku przyszłym.
Do końca roku siły zbrojne będą miały zatem na uzbrojeniu 433 czołgi (116 M1A1FEP, 84 K2, 233 Leopard 2). Do tego dojdą Abramsy w najnowszej wersji, które płyną do Polski.
Wicepremier i szef MON Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz zapowiedział też umowę na pozyskanie kolejnych 180 czołgów K2, które już mają być częściowo spolonizowane.
Koreańczycy cały czas modernizują swoje czołgi
Koreański producent tych wozów Hyundai Rotem wciąż modernizuje i doskonali swoje konstrukcje. Jednym z przykładów są prace nad produkcją własnego power-packa do czołgów K2 Black Panther (Heuk-Pyo), złożonego z silnika wysokoprężnego HD Hyundai Doosan Infracore DV27K i skrzyni przekładniowej SNT Dynamics EST15K.
Obecnie użytkowane czołgi K2 są nadal wyposażone w przekładnie RENK HSWL 295 TM. W niemieckim pakiecie napędowym również wykryto pewne problemy i w rezultacie władze w Seulu zdecydowały się kontynuować rozwój krajowego power-packa.
W pierwszych dwóch partiach produkcyjnych K2 zastosowano niemiecki power-pack, a dopiero przy trzeciej partii wozów dla wojsk lądowych Republiki Korei oraz K2GF dla Polski zdecydowano się na silnik DV27K, lecz sprzężony jeszcze z przekładnią RENK HSWL 295 TM.
W 2023 r. koreański power-pack poddano ostatecznym testom pod nadzorem urzędu DAPA, który go zatwierdził. Teraz Hyundai Rotem może wprowadzić go do masowej produkcji - zarówno dla wozów na potrzeby krajowe, jak i na eksport.
Na froncie czołgi są bezbronne wobec amunicji krążącej i dronów
Złe wieści w sprawie amerykańskich i niemieckich czołgów, które mamy na uzbrojeniu, napłynęły z Ukrainy. Podano, że obrońcy stracili na froncie znaczną część przekazanych przez Amerykanów czołgów Abrams M1A1.
Z 31 czołgów Abrams już 20 zostało zniszczonych, uszkodzonych lub przejętych - większość w tym roku przez zdalnie sterowane pociski oraz drony. Pancerz Abramsa, nawet ten zubożony, który jest w czołgach dla Ukrainy, powinien wytrzymać bezpośredni ostrzał z innych pojazdów bojowych.
Tyle że Amerykanie przyznają, że Abramsy nie są odpowiednio chronione przed atakami kierowanych pocisków przeciwpancernych lub amunicji krążącej i przed dronami. Generał Geoffrey Norman, odpowiedzialny za program odnowy pojazdów pancernych armii USA, przyznał, że
M1A1 Abrams nie nadaje się do ataków, z którymi obecnie spotykają się siły ukraińskie.
- Pomimo zaawansowanego pancerza reaktywnego czołgi pozostają podatne na ataki z góry. Słabość ta jest wykorzystywana przez siły rosyjskie - ocenił amerykański generał.
Dla nas jest jeszcze gorsza wiadomość...
Rosjanom udało się przejąć kilka dobrze zachowanych Abramsów, co pozwoli im zapoznać się z technologią systemów obronnych oraz kierowania ogniem i łączności, w które są wyposażone.
Specjaliści wojskowi obawiają się, że w przypadku konfliktu z NATO Rosjanie opracują rozwiązania, które będą w stanie zakłócić pracę systemów elektronicznych amerykańskich czołgów, bądź wyposażą swoje czołgi w pancerze, które będą w stanie wytrzymać ostrzał z dział Abramsów.
Również spośród 21 dostarczonych Leopardów 2A6 12 zostało zniszczonych lub uszkodzonych, a z 40 otrzymanych Leopardów 2A4 ten sam los spotkał ponad połowę wozów. Z 10 wozów szwedzkiej wersji Leopard 2, czołgów Stridsvagn 122, unicestwiono 7 maszyn.
Czołgi najpewniej długo jeszcze nie znikną z pola walki
Bez czołgów nie ma mowy o zwycięstwie w wojnie, zwłaszcza że powstają systemy, które coraz skuteczniej chronią życie załóg czołgowych.
Niemcy pochwalili się niedawno wprowadzeniem do służby w Bundeswehrze nowego czołgu Leopard 2A7A1. To pierwszy czołg koncernu KNDS zintegrowany z Trophy Active Protection System, opracowanym przez izraelską firmę Rafael.
Następne 17 egzemplarzy 2A6 ma zostać przebudowane do tego standardu w 2025 r. Wcześniej system Trophy zintegrowano również z czołgami Merkawa oraz transporterami opancerzonymi Namer Sił Obronnych Izraela, a także z czołgami Abrams USA. Mają go też brytyjskie czołgi Challenger 3. Trophy będzie również ochraniał czołgi Leopard 2 w Norwegii. Chcą je również Koreańczycy - dla swoich K2.
Rafael poinformował podczas targów zbrojeniowych AUSA na początku października, że - wykorzystując doświadczenia Izraela w walce w Strefie Gazy i Libanie - zmodernizował system Trophy, który teraz może chronić pojazdy bojowe również przed atakami dronów.
Nasze czołgi takich systemów nie mają i nikt - jak dotychczas - nie mówi o ich zakupie, choć doświadczenia z wojny w Ukrainie wyraźnie wskazują na ich potrzebę.
Jeśli Polska nie wyposaży w przyszłości swoich czołgów w systemy tego rodzaju, to - mimo że czołgi, które nabywamy są nowoczesnym sprzętem, w pełnoskalowej wojnie nigdy nie będzie on w stanie wykorzystać wszystkich swoich walorów.
Цитата:
Niemiecki generał ostrzega przed najgorszym. Polski dowódca odpowiada
Zakończenie konfliktu w Ukrainie znacznie ułatwi Rosji rozbudowę swoich sił zbrojnych - uważa gen. Wiesław Kukuła, szef Sztabu Generalnego Wojska Polskiego. Jego zdaniem, wojnę z Rosją powinniśmy postrzegać jako realne zagrożenie.
• Gen. Carsten Breuer ostrzegł, że - po zebraniu wszystkich dostępnych informacji - atak Rosji na terytorium NATO byłby możliwy już w 2029 r.
• To, czy i kiedy wojna wybuchnie, w pewnym sensie zależy od nas - uważa gen. Wiesław Kukuła, szef Sztabu Generalnego Wojska Polskiego.
• Jego zdaniem, podejście Rosji do potencjalnej wojny definiują trzy wektory - intencji, siły i możliwości.
W wywiadzie dla niemieckiego dziennika "Sueddeutsche Zeintung" gen. Carsten Breuer ostrzegł, że - po zebraniu wszystkich dostępnych informacji - atak Rosji na terytorium NATO byłby możliwy już w 2029 r.
O słowa niemieckiego dowódcy z lata zapytany został przez "Rzeczpospolitą" gen. Wiesław Kukuła, szef Sztabu Generalnego Wojska Polskiego.
[b]Niemiecki generał ostrzega przed najgorszym. Polski dowódca odpowiada
Jak zaznaczył, opinia gen. Breuera - zgodnie z którą czas potrzebny Rosji na budowę zdolności do wojny z NATO to maksymalnie pięć lat - jest w dowództwach NATO podzielana.
Rosja dysponuje potencjałem demograficznym, surowcowym oraz - co najważniejsze - wciąż sprawnie funkcjonującym przemysłem obronnym nie tylko do prowadzenia wojny, ale również równoległego rozwijania swojego potencjału obronnego. Zakończenie konfliktu w Ukrainie znacznie ułatwi jej rozbudowę swoich sił zbrojnych i może czas wskazany przez gen. Breuera znacznie skrócić - podkreślił.
Dodał, że wojnę z Rosją powinniśmy postrzegać jako realne zagrożenie. - Dla mnie najważniejsze pytanie jest inne. Czy i kiedy zdołamy zbudować system odporności państwa oraz zdolności Sił Zbrojnych do długotrwałego niwelowania tego zagrożenia.
To, czy i kiedy wojna wybuchnie, w pewnym sensie zależy od nas.
Atakowanie państwa dobrze przygotowanego do obrony, którego społeczeństwo stanie do walki, jest olbrzymim ryzykiem. Agresja zawsze karmi się słabościami - mówił.
Polsce grozi wojna z Rosją? Trzeba patrzeć na trzy aspekty
Gen. Wiesław Kukuła, wskazał, że podejście Rosji do potencjalnej wojny definiują trzy wektory:
• intencji,
• siły,
• możliwości.
Intencje Federacji Rosyjskiej są doskonale komunikowane przez samego prezydenta Putina, jak również ministra spraw zagranicznych Ławrowa. W sposób otwarty od drugiej połowy 2021 r. Nic tutaj nie uległo zmianie - powiedział.
Jak zaznaczył, wektor siły mocno osłabiły opór Ukrainy oraz solidarność międzynarodowa. - Ale Rosja konsekwentnie go odbudowuje. Plan rozbudowy sił zbrojnych do 1,5 mln żołnierzy w państwie, które dysponuje arsenałem odstraszania nuklearnego, jest bardzo czytelnym sygnałem, do czego mają być wykorzystane te zasoby.
Szczególnie po wnioskach z Ukrainy, gdzie nie doszacowano liczby żołnierzy zaangażowanych w agresję,
zwłaszcza na jej początkowym etapie - ocenił generał w rozmowie z "Rz".
Wektorem możliwości mogą być np. wojna na Pacyfiku, silnie angażująca USA, czy też utrata spójności przez NATO. - Do tych trzech kierunków dodam jeszcze jeden - nie zawsze rozumiany przez wszystkich w NATO.
Wektor nieprzewidywalności.
Rosja jest nieprzewidywalna i nasze kalkulacje związane z odstraszaniem mogą trafiać w próżnię, jeśli nie będzie ono zrozumiałe - wyjaśnił.
P.S.
А.п. напоминает Уважаемым коллегам, что в связи с тем, что провайдер села обитания а.п., принял решение улучшить качество своей работы(что само по себе обнадёживает), начиная с 14 ноября сего года, все публикации а.п. (в разделах «примечания и дополнения», «фанаты и жизнь», «варвар и еретик», и «дураки и дороги»), будут происходить нерегулярно, случайным, можно даже сказать, возможным образом.
_________________
С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Biden's decision to allow strikes deep inside Russia will 'enrage' Putin and could spark 'broader war', former US colonel warns amid fears ATACMS greenlight will trigger 'spiral of bloodshed' before Trump takes over
Biden's decision, which signals a dramatic U-turn in US policy, comes as Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting to gain as much territory as possible ahead of Trump's return to the Oval Office amid fears the president-elect may seek to force a ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long pressed his Western allies to allow his country to strike military targets deeper inside Russia, saying the ban had made it impossible for Kyiv to try to stop Russian attacks on its cities and electrical grids. But Kyiv's Western backers had resisted his pleas amid fears that doing so would cross a 'red line' set by Putin. In September the Russian President said that he would consider Western nations 'direct participants' in the war in Ukraine if they were to provide Kyiv with the ability to strike targets inside Russia. He has also suggested he may provide Russian missiles to Western adversaries to strike Western targets abroad as a course of retaliation.
US President Joe Biden's decision to give Ukraine the green light to blast targets inside Russia with US-supplied long-range missiles may trigger a broader war and lead to yet more bloodshed, former American military chiefs and analysts warn.
Retired Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis warned yesterday that allowing Kyiv to use America's ATACMS rockets even in a limited capacity would 'enrage Putin and likely broaden the war' just weeks before Donald Trump arrives in the White House.
'I feel it's going to enrage Putin, which is problematic... ATACMS are not going to make a major difference quite frankly, but what it will do is put Mr. Trump as he assumes the presidency in a much worse situation.
'What we don't need at this late hour is the Biden administration exacerbating a pretty bad situation,' he told Fox News.
Biden's decision, which signals a dramatic U-turn in US policy, comes as Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting to gain as much territory as possible ahead of Trump's return to the Oval Office amid fears the president-elect may seek to force a ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long pressed his Western allies to allow his country to strike military targets deeper inside Russia, saying the ban had made it impossible for Kyiv to try to stop Russian attacks on its cities and electrical grids.
But Kyiv's Western backers had resisted his pleas amid fears that doing so would cross a 'red line' set by Putin.
In September the Russian President said that he would consider Western nations 'direct participants' in the war in Ukraine if they were to provide Kyiv with the ability to strike targets inside Russia.
He has also suggested he may provide Russian missiles to Western adversaries to strike Western targets abroad as a course of retaliation.
Chris Pleasance, Host of MailOnline's War On Tape YouTube series, said: 'Biden's decision is designed to help the Ukrainians hold their ground and inflict even heavier casualties on Putin's army.
'This may well lead to a spiral of bloodshed on both sides before Trump takes over and tries to enforce a peace. Whether either side will be willing to negotiate after so much blood has been spilled remains to be seen.'
Biden's decision has not been confirmed by the White House but has been widely reported in the US, while Zelensky added: 'Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves.'
Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, according to several sources, with the first deep strikes likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles, or 300km.
For now, it is believed Ukraine's Armed Forces will be able to use ATACMS rockets to strike targets in the Kursk region, where Vladimir Putin is said to be amassing some 50,000 soldiers, including troops from North Korea, to repel a Ukrainian incursion.
It remains to be seen whether Britain and France will follow suit by allowing Kyiv's troops to attack Russian targets with Storm Shadow and SCALP long-range missiles, which have an operational range of around 155 miles.
But were Ukraine's Western allies to lift the ban entirely, Kyiv's soldiers would be able to strike hundreds of prized Russian military and logistics assets deep inside Russia at any point along the 800-mile-long front line.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think-tank, has established a list of nearly 250 high value military and paramilitary targets within range of the weapons that could be demolished by Ukraine.
Among the main targets that the ISW assesses Ukraine may seek to strike include as many as 16 Russian air bases, a slew of brigade and division headquarters, artillery and missile units central to Russia's air defence capabilities, and a variety of logistics hubs supplying Vladimir Putin's units on the frontlines.
Targeting these sites could cripple Russian logistics, command, and combat support, significantly reducing Moscow's offensive capabilities in occupied Ukrainian territory - even if Putin's troops redeploy most strategic bombing aircraft further east.
The overall supply of ATACMS missiles is short, so US officials and analysts have questioned whether allowing Ukraine to use the weapons systems is really worth it given the potential consequences that could ensue.
Jennifer Kavanagh, Director of Military Analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank, said: 'Expanding Ukraine's ability to launch offensive strikes with Western weapons inside Russia will not alter the trajectory of the war or help Kyiv gain an advantage against a better equipped and more resilient adversary.
'Any escalation could reverberate on Ukraine itself. With the Biden administration on its way out and the incoming Trump administration indicating an intention to end the war, Putin has little incentive to act with restraint in his retaliation toward Kyiv.'
But proponents of the policy say that even a few strikes deeper inside Russia would force its military to change deployments and expend more of its resources.
George Barros, leader of the Russia team and GEOINT team at ISW that compiled the list of targets, sought to highlight the way in which ATACMS could impact Putin's troops and campaigned for the Biden administration to allow strikes beyond Kursk as a result.
'Reminder that there are hundreds of valid, legal, legitimate, and operationally consequential military targets in range of Ukrainian ATACMS,' he wrote.
'The Biden Administration's shift to allow ATACMS use in Russia is a good thing, but it must extend beyond Kursk Oblast.'
….
Ukraine has already authored several attacks deep into Russia, including on targets in the capital Moscow, a number of oil refineries and ammunition dumps.
But those strikes have been conducted by kamikaze drones which are considerably limited in their scale and are highly susceptible to Russian jamming and air defence systems.
Ukraine's Western allies earlier this year delivered the first tranche of F-16 fighter jets, but these aircraft remain subject to restrictions and can only be used in a limited capacity, for example, to conduct air defence missions or support operations on Ukrainian soil.
Zelensky has been pleading with Kyiv's allies for months to take their support a step further by letting Ukraine fire Western missiles to limit Moscow's ability to launch attacks across the border.
Those weapons have already been used to great effect in Russian-occupied Ukraine and in Crimea.
Putin has long warned that Moscow would consider Ukraine's Western allies directly party to the conflict if their weapons are used by Kyiv's troops to strike targets on Russian soil, setting out a series of red lines that Western leaders appear reluctant to test.
In June, he issued a thinly veiled threat saying he would consider providing Western foes with Russian missiles to strike the West's assets if the US or European nations went ahead with allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles.
'If someone is thinking it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why can't we supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia?' he said.
Though it seems the US has finally budged on letting Ukraine use its long-range missiles on specific targets in Russia, it remains to be seen whether the rest of Kyiv's Western partners will follow suit.
Downing Street is yet to issue a response to Biden's decision, which has not been officially announced but has been widely reported in the US.
But Sir Keir Starmer said 'we need to double down' on support for Ukraine and the issue was 'top' of his agenda at this week's G20 summit of world leaders in Brazil.
Unconfirmed reports from Le Figaro indicated both London and Paris were considering their position after months of having refused Zelensky's pleas to use the fearsome munitions on Russian targets.
…
The decision to green light the use of ATACMS on Russian targets comes as Ukrainian defences wilt under incessant pressure from Moscow's troops.
As if to prove its enduring military capabilities, Ukraine shocked Moscow in August by piercing its border with tens of thousands of troops that Russia is still fighting to repel.
Zelensky said the operation made a mockery of Putin's 'red lines' and used the move as yet more evidence to lobby the US and European lawmakers to grant Kyiv permission to use advanced Western weapons inside Russia.
But after making rapid progress in the first two weeks of the incursion, Ukrainian advances in Kursk stalled and Kyiv's troops have since been desperately trying to hold their position.
Meanwhile in Eastern Ukraine, Russia's forces are steadily grinding towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk having taken large swathes of territory in the Donetsk region in recent months.
Putin's army took 185 square miles of Ukrainian territory in October, a record since the first weeks of the conflict in March 2022, according to an analysis of data provided by the real-time conflict tracker from the Institute for the Study of War.
Now, with Trump set to return to the White House in a matter of weeks, the intensity of the conflict is likely to increase.
Trump has famously said that the Russia-Ukraine war would never have started had he been president and claimed he could bring the conflict to an abrupt halt - without ever revealing his plans for doing so.
There are mounting concerns that Trump could push for a hasty ceasefire requiring Ukraine to cede significant portions of its territory - a prospect that leaves both sides fighting to capture as much land as possible so as to strengthen their position ahead of negotiations.
Biden's decision to grant Ukraine the use of ATACMS in Kursk could therefore be seen as an additional buttress that aims to help Kyiv's troops maintain their foothold in Kursk to present it as a bargaining chip.
Putin said on day one of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that anyone who tried to hinder or threaten it would suffer 'consequences that you have never faced in your history'.
Since then, he has issued a series of further statements that the West regards as nuclear threats and announced the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of Russia's lower house of parliament and a close ally of President Putin, said Moscow would be forced to use 'more powerful and destructive weapons' against Ukraine if Kyiv started firing long-range Western missiles at Russia.
'Washington and other European states are becoming parties to the war in Ukraine,' Volodin said on Telegram.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in September that Moscow suspects a US decision to let Kyiv fire such missiles into Russia has already been taken, and vowed that the Kremlin would take 'an appropriate response' if the missile ban is lifted.
It was unsurprising therefore that news of the Biden administration's decision to approve ATACMS use in Kursk heralded a torrent of apocalyptic warnings from Russian lawmakers this morning.
'This is a very big step towards the beginning of the Third World War,' said Putin-loyalist Vladimir Dzhabarov, deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the upper house and a retired security service general.
He slammed the move from Biden - 'a departing old man who will no longer be responsible for anything in two months'.
Hardline Liberal-Democatic party leader Leonid Slutsky said: 'Biden has apparently decided to end his presidential term and go down in history as Bloody Joe.
'It will mean only one thing - direct US participation in the military conflict in Ukraine, which will inevitably entail the harshest response from Russia, based on the threats that will be created for our country.'
Russian senator Andrey Klishas said: 'The West has decided on a level of escalation that could end with the remnants of Ukraine completely losing their statehood.'
Цитата:
This is a very big step towards the start of World War Three, says furious Putin official as Biden lets Ukraine strike inside Russia before Trump becomes President
...
Senior Russian politicians have declared President Joe Biden has taken a 'big step towards World War Three' after his administration reportedly gave the green light for Ukraine to blast targets inside Russia with US-supplied long-range missiles.
The decision, which came on the eve of the 1000th day of war in Ukraine amid the dying days of the Biden administration, heralded a torrent of apocalyptic warnings from Russian lawmakers.
'This is a very big step towards the beginning of the Third World War,' said Putin-loyalist Vladimir Dzhabarov, deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the upper house and a retired security service general.
He slammed the move from Biden - 'a departing old man who will no longer be responsible for anything in two months'.
Hardline Liberal-Democatic party leader Leonid Slutsky said: 'Biden has apparently decided to end his presidential term and go down in history as Bloody Joe.
'It will mean only one thing - direct US participation in the military conflict in Ukraine, which will inevitably entail the harshest response from Russia, based on the threats that will be created for our country.'
Russian senator Andrey Klishas said: 'The West has decided on a level of escalation that could end with the remnants of Ukraine completely losing their statehood.'
Putin himself is yet to respond to the major change in Western policy.
But in October, he warned that long-range missile strikes on his territory would mean the West was 'at war with Russia' because only NATO specialists - and not Ukrainians - could fix these missiles onto their targets.
'If this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be posed to us,' Putin said.
The Biden administration reportedly gave the green light for Ukraine to blast targets inside Russia with US-supplied long-range missiles
Biden is set to leave office in a matter of weeks
The decision, which came on the eve of the 1000th day of war in Ukraine amid the dying days of the Biden administration, heralded a torrent of apocalyptic warnings from Russian lawmakers
One Russian official urged Britain and France to refuse to follow the Biden administration's tack by allowing Ukraine to deploy Storm Shadow and SCALP long-range missiles in Russia.
Unconfirmed reports from Le Figaro indicated both London and Paris were considering their position after months of having refused Zelensky's pleas to use the fearsome munitions on Russian targets.
Senior Russian diplomat Mikhail Ulyanov, the Kremlin's permanent representative to international organisations in Vienna, said: 'They have a chance to reconsider their position if they are truly concerned about European security.
'There is no longer room for primitive political games.'
Downing Street is yet to issue a response to Biden's decision, which has not been officially announced but has been widely reported in the US.
But Sir Keir Starmer said 'we need to double down' on support for Ukraine and the issue was 'top' of his agenda at this week's G20 summit of world leaders in Brazil.
Biden will be at the gathering, while Russia will be represented by foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
…
In the US, Biden's move riled supporters of President-elect Donald Trump, who pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.
Trump's oldest son, Donald Trump Jr, posted on X after Biden's decision was announced, saying that 'the military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives'.
David Sacks, a tech millionaire who was a major donor for Trump's presidential campaigner, added that Biden permitting Ukraine to use US-supplied missiles in Russia would 'massively escalate' the situation.
'President Trump won a clear mandate to end the war in Ukraine. So what does Biden do in his final two months in office? Massively escalate it. Is his goal to hand Trump the worst situation possible?' Sacks said.
Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, according to several sources. The first deep strikes are reportedly likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the reports about Biden's policy change - which reportedly would authorise the use of Western missiles to strike targets in the Kursk region only - had not been openly confirmed by the White House but said the 'missiles will speak for themselves'.
Zelensky had been pressing Biden for months to allow his country to strike military targets deeper inside Russia with US-supplied missiles, saying the ban had made it impossible for Kyiv to try to stop Russian attacks on its cities and electrical grids.
Trump's oldest son, Donald Trump Jr (right), posted on X after Biden's decision was announced, saying that 'the military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives'
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In this photo taken from a video released by Russian Defense Ministry press service on Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, the Russian army's multiple rocket launcher Solntsepyok fires towards Ukrainian positions in the border area of Kursk region, Russia
Firefighters work at the site of residential area hit by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Lviv region, Ukraine November 17, 2024
Former senior NATO official Nicholas Williams called the decision to allow Ukraine to fire US-supplied missiles into Russia 'significant in terms of the end game'.
'It is significant. The Ukrainians may say it's too little too late but it's not too late to affect the end game,' he told Sky News.
Williams also said the decision was important for 'positioning Ukraine to not make the significant concessions which Russia wants in order to get peace'.
The weapons are likely to be used in response to North Korea's decision to send thousands of troops to Russia in support of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, according to sources.
Around 10,000 soldiers from the pariah state have joined the fight to reclaim Kursk, parts of which Ukraine seized in a daring counter offensive in August.
Biden hopes that this response will 'send a message' to Kim Jong Un not to send any more, sources said.
US President Joe Biden shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in September
File image of a US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) firing a missile into the East Sea during a South Korea-US joint missile drill
A firefighter tackles a blaze in Mykolaiv following the drone strike, which killed two people overnight
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Biden had remained opposed until now, determined to hold the line against any escalation that he felt could draw the US and other NATO members into direct conflict with Russia.
But North Korea has deployed thousands of troops to Russia to help Moscow try to claw back land in the Kursk border region that Ukraine seized this year, which could have contributed to Biden changing his mind.
The introduction of North Korean troops to the conflict comes as Moscow has seen a favorable shift in momentum. Trump has signaled that he could push Ukraine to agree to give up some land seized by Russia to find an end to the conflict.
As many as 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, according to US, South Korean and Ukrainian assessments.
US and South Korean intelligence officials say North Korea also has provided Russia with significant amounts of munitions to replenish its dwindling weapons stockpiles.
It is not clear if Trump will reverse Biden's decision when he takes office in January.
US officials briefed the New York Times on Biden's move in the wake of one of Russia's biggest aerial bombardments of Ukraine in the war on Saturday night.
NATO was forced to scramble the Polish and Romanian air force as over 200 missiles and drones aimed to wipe out their eastern neighbour's energy grid, causing blackouts across the country.
….
On Saturday night, Putin launched a devastating salvo of 120 cruise and ballistic missiles as well as 90 drones that killed at least 10.
Terrified Ukrainian civilians were seen cowering in bomb shelters in Kyiv as while air defences shot down dozens of missiles 'severe damage' was inflicted on the power grid.
The country's energy operator DTEK announced emergency power cuts at around 7am UK time on Sunday morning affecting the Kyiv, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions following overnight drone strikes.
It said shortly thereafter thermal power plants had been struck by Putin's latest fusillade. The level of damage was not immediately clear.
Air defences were deployed overnight to intercept drones in Kyiv as residents were urged to take cover, while missiles bound for the west of the stricken country prompted NATO to send out its warplanes to assist.
'Due to the massive attack by the Russian Federation using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles on objects located, among others, in western Ukraine, Polish and allied [NATO] aircraft have begun operating in our airspace,' the Polish operational command said in a statement.
'On-duty fighter pairs were scrambled, and the ground-based air defence and radar reconnaissance systems reached the highest state of readiness. The steps taken are aimed at ensuring safety in areas bordering the threatened areas.'
The ferocious overnight attack came 24 hours after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz extended an olive branch to Putin for the first time since his illegal invasion.
He called the dictator on Friday in an attempt to open a dialogue on peace plans after Trump was swept to power in the US promising to end the war.
Trump is also reported to have held a call with Putin where he told him not to escalate the conflict - though the Kremlin denies this.
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Polish PM Donald Tusk took aim at Scholz and Trump, tweeting on Sunday: 'No-one will stop Putin with phone calls.
'The attack last night, one of the biggest in this war, has proved that telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole West for Ukraine.
'The next weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself, but also for our future.'
Starmer said he had 'no plans' to speak to Putin, urging 'full support as long as it takes' as he headed to a meeting of G20 leaders in Rio.
The Prime Minister told reporters: 'It's a matter for Chancellor Scholz who he speaks to. I have no plans to speak to Putin. We are coming up to the 1,000th day of this conflict on Tuesday.
'That's 1,000 days of Russian aggression, 1,000 days of huge impact and sacrifice in relation to the Ukrainian people and recently we've seen the addition of North Korean troops working with Russians which does have serious implications.
'I think on one hand it shows the desperation of Russia, bit it's got serious implications for European security [...] and for Indo-Pacific security and that's why I think we need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that's top of my agenda for the G20.
'There's got to be full support as long as it takes and that certainly is top of my agenda, shoring up that further support for Ukraine.'
_________________
С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Kremlin says US authorisation for Ukraine to strike inside Russia 'adding fuel to the fire'
Цитата:
О решении Байдена разрешить Украине наносить удары вглубь нашей страны ракетами США.
...
Если это произойдёт, то Россия вынуждена будет ответить.
Как — это вопрос к Министерству обороны.
Но ясно, что ответ будет!
Не исключено использование новых систем вооружения, которые по территории Украины Российская Федерация не применяла.
Понимаем, что следующим шагом может быть ответ со стороны США.
А потом неизбежен наш ответ.
Это называется «эскалация».
Уходящий президент Байден в силу возраста, как и любой человек, — все мы смертны — когда-то уйдёт из жизни.
Но складывается впечатление, что, думая об этом, он мечтает о вечном и хочет утащить с собой всю Америку.
А может быть, и весь мир!
Что касается применения оружия, о котором идёт речь, — оно и так уже используется.
Расширение его применения, конечно, может нанести ущерб, но ситуацию на поле боя не поменяет. Подчёркиваю это.
А только усугубит судьбу Украины и её будущее.
И окончательно разрушит российско-американские отношения.
Цитата:
Байден не разрешил применять ATACMS. Байден приказал применять ATACMS. Не нужно заблуждаться в формулировках. Увы, именно к этому все шло.
Цитата:
Каким будет ответ РФ на удары «дальнобоем»?
...
История с разрешением на удары западными дальнобойными ракетами по территории РФ, о чем сообщают западные СМИ, со вчерашнего вечера претерпела определенные метаморфозы.
Прежде всего, никаких официальных подтверждений от США, Британии, Франции и Украины до сих пор не поступало. Лишь намек от Зеленского, что такие удары могут последовать.
Зато на страницах СМИ масштабы явления начали стремительно сужаться.
Американские медиа уточнили, что разрешение на удары ракетами ATACMS касается (по крайней мере пока) исключительно Курской области РФ. Затем появились сведения, что Франция и Британия на самом деле разрешение на удары своими ракетами не давали (Байден не разрешил), а утром французское издание, которое изначально информацию об этом опубликовало, статью со своего сайта удалила. А позже и глава МИД Франции заявил, что Париж не отменял своего запрета на удары дальнобоем.
В общем, история с «дальнобоем» становится все более запутанной, и пока не очень понятно, что из сообщений СМИ правда, а что является вбросом.
Тем не менее, пока официального опровержения информации о разрешении на удары по РФ, как минимум, американскими дальнобойными ракетами ATACMS не поступало. А потому, не исключено, что оно действительно получено и удары будут нанесены в ближайшее время.
И, если это произойдет, то возникает вопрос как на это ответит Россия?
Путин ранее уже публично неоднократно заявлял, что удары западными дальнобойными ракетами будут означать прямое вступление стран НАТО в войну против РФ и даже обновил под это ядерную доктрину, которая теперь предусматривает возможность ядерного ответа на такие удары. И, в целом, Москва на разных уровнях заявляла, что некий военный ответ она даст.
Какой он будет в реальности, если удары «дальнобоем» сейчас последуют?
С одной стороны, как мы уже писали, удары эти, тем более, если они будут ограничены Курской областью, не станут решающим фактором на войне. Как показал опыт ударов этими же ракетами по тылам армии РФ на захваченных россиянами территориях Украины, они хоть и приносят значительный ущерб, но на положение дел на фронте кардинально не влияют. А потому и оснований для резких ответных шагов Кремля вроде как и нет.
С другой стороны, слишком много уже было сказано (в том числе и лично Путиным) о том, что удары «дальнобоем» - это «красная линия». И потому ее пересечение полностью проигнорировать Москве будет непросто. Дело даже не в имиджевых моментах типа «потери лица». Есть и более практический аспект. Если не дать какого-либо ответа на «дальнобой», то для России возникает угроза, что далее могут быть пересечны и другие, куда более существенные, «красные линии». Например - российские ракеты над Украиной начнут сбивать системами ПВО стран НАТО. Либо же западные войска будут введены в Украину на границу с Беларусью, чтоб заменить там украинские подразделения для отправки последних на фронт. А это уже, в отличие от ударов «дальнобоем», будет иметь серьезные последствия для общего баланса сил на войне, который, в таком случае, изменится не в пользу РФ. Кроме того, отсутствие реакции на «дальнобой» может использовать «партия войны» в республиканской партии США, чтоб доказать Трампу необходимость продолжение прежней линии «войны до победного конца» и отказа от планов скорейшего прекращения огня по линии фронта с тезисом «видите, не нужно боятся Третьей мировой войны, ничего не будет».
Именно эти аргументы приводят сейчас в России те силы, которые выступают за «жесткую ответку», давя по этому поводу на Кремль. В том числе, уже и начиная прокачивать тему о его «нерешительности» (если ответки не будет), заводя старую пригожинскую песню о «красных линиях, которые становятся коричневыми».
Но для РФ есть и свои проблемные моменты в связи с военным ответом.
Прежде всего, он может резко усложнить договоренности с Трампом об окончании войны. Как мы уже писали, не исключено, что именно это и было главной целью «партии войны» на Западе, которая стремится не допустить такого варианта и увести войну «в долгую». Либо, если начнется полномасштабное военное противостояние РФ и НАТО, то и сорвать передачу власти Трампу. Поэтому для Москвы возникает вопрос, нужно ли ей подыгрывать этой партии или же стоит проявить выдержку до прихода к власти Трампа? Правда, в РФ есть своя «партия войны», которая также выступает против любых компромиссов и за «войну для победного конца». Поэтому для нее «разрешение на дальнобой» - это прекрасная подача, чтоб, со своей стороны, постараться торпедировать любые договоренности. Кроме того, до конца непонятна позиция самого Путина. Готов ли он рассматривать предложения о завершении войны по линии фронта, либо он хочет добиться своих целей-максимум. В последнем случае, разрешение Байдена на удары ракетами по РФ с ответом на это России может стать для Путина удобным поводом вообще избежать обсуждения компромиссных вариантов.
Но есть и другой проблемный для РФ аспект. Сам по себе ответ, в виде, например, российского удара обычным оружием по американским военным объектам для Москвы не только бессмысленный, но даже вредный, так как будет иметь своим следствием втягивание непосредственно НАТО в войну, которую Россия, при условии использования обычного оружия, проиграет в виду несоизмеримости потенциалов со странами Альянса. А применение ядерного оружия приведет к взаимному уничтожению.
Поэтому логика ответа Кремля, судя по тому, как ее описывали близкие к нему эксперты, предусматривалась иная. Этот ответ должен был бы изначально содержать в себе угрозу начала полномасштабной ядерной войны, исходя из базового посыла, что Запад не готов в нее ввязываться ради Украины, а потому будет вынужден пойти не просто на уступки, а на масштабные договоренности с Москвой по всему спектру ее требований. Оставим пока за скобками вопрос насколько этот посыл верен. Важно отметить другое – решение такого стратегического уровня на Западе может принять только один человек – президент США. Однако до 20 января полноценного президента в Вашингтоне не будет. А потому и решения принимать некому. И в итоге ситуация, если Москва решит пойти по описанному выше плану, может быстро выйти из-под контроля.
Поэтому, не исключено, что Путин (если удары «дальнобоем» по РФ все ж таки будут нанесены) может выбрать некий «гибридный» вариант ответа. Который не предусматривал бы военный удар сразу, но давал бы при этом понять, что такой удар может быть нанесен в будущем – после 20 января, когда состоится инаугурация Трампа. Без конкретизации каким именно он будет. А потом уже выходить на договоренности с Трампом, чтоб «предотвратить Третью мировую войну».
Также Москва может попытаться задействовать КНДР. С учетом того, что разрешение на удары «дальнобоем» в западных СМИ связали с прибытием северокорейских войск в Курскую область, то Пхеньян может заявить, что, в случае удара по ним американскими ракетами, он нанесет удар по войскам США, размещенным в Южной Корее. Правда, для этого КНДР и Москва должны будут официально признать наличие северокорейских войск в РФ.
Также, возможно, будет активизирована помощь хуситам в их нападениях на американские и британские военные корабли.
Кроме того, вполне вероятно, что ответом РФ на удары «дальнобоем» может стать активизация ударов по энергосистеме Украины. Например, массированный удар по подстанциям АЭС, об угрозе которого уже давно говорят украинские власти.
В общем, вариантов развития событий после ударов «дальнобоем» по РФ может быть много.
Но становится все более очевидно одно – ситуация подходит к точке бифуркации. За которой либо резкая эскалация (причем, не исключено, что и в мировом масштабе), либо начало пути к завершению войны в Украине.
Цитата:
Цитата:
А кто сказал, что эта история про удары ATACMS вглубь России не согласована с Трампом? Судя по составу его нового кабинета, где ключевые позиции главы госдепа и советника по нацбезопасности заняли антироссийские ястребы (автор санкций Рубио и Уолтц, который цитирует Маккейна про «страну-бензоколонку») это как вот раз так любимый ими «мир через силу» и есть. Наехали- отъехали. Зря, разве, Трамп с Байденом полтора часа беседовали в Белом доме, а потом сам республиканец сказал, что «про Украину».
Цитата:
Трамп может подвергнуть пересмотру решение Байдена об ударах американским оружием вглубь территории России, передают со ссылкой на представителя переходной команды. Интересная формулировка. «Может подвернуть» и «подвернет»- это разные вещи. Первая формулировка, как правило, предполагает условие. Какое? Тот самый «мирный план от WSJ с «заморозкой»? Тогда классика жанра.
Цитата:
Байден авторизовал удары по России. Почему сейчас?
Ответ короткий - не знаю.
Но пару спекуляций / риторических вопросов на основании увиденного предложу:
⭐️ Решение анонсировано после встречи Байдена и Си на саммите АТЭС. Т.е. китайцы, возможно (вероятно?), были информированы. Если да - какой-то ответ на это решение США они Байдену дали? И если их позиция "невмешательство", что им за это дают взамен?
⭐️ Решение Байдена, в котором многие видят помеху для "мирного плана" Трампа, в трамповской философии ведения переговоров может быть вовсе не помехой, а подспорьем. Как бы сейчас республиканцы ни ругали это решение. Ведь переговоры с Москвой можно будет начинать не с обсуждения территориальных вопросов, заморозки военных действий или демилитаризованных зон, а с темы (не)отмены ударов дальнобойным оружием. Вчера еще этого фактора не было, а сегодня он есть. Благо и люди, которые могут эту силовую позицию продавливать есть - Рубио, Уолтц, (может и Хегсет)….;
⭐️ Решение Байдена может быть и попыткой "смахнуть" украинский сюжет с проблемой карты: создать такие условия, при которых в ответном ударе Москва оставит от оставшейся Украины "рожки да ножки" (чего до этого делать остерегалась), а потом развести руками: дескать, вы просили - мы дали - русские ужасны, сочувствуем - но дальше сами - и переложить бремя последствий на европейцев (и Трампа, если он, всё же, не в этом "сговоре");
⭐️ Если это слишком сложно - версия попроще: предпринять очередную попытку спровоцировать Кремль на использование ТЯО с последующей информационной кампанией, в которой Россию выставят глобальным прокаженным, так, чтобы и Трампу (а с ним и Си, и Моди, и эмиратцам с саудитами - последний теперь особенно нужен на нефтерынках) не пришло в голову с Путиным общаться и какие-то запасные ходы России оставлять. Вроде бы просто, но потенциально эффективно;
⭐️ В запрещенных соцсетях - друг рассказывает, сам не читаю - ликование тех, кто называет себя журналистами, политиков и аналитиков мозготанков. Мол, наконец-то. Карты всякие рисуют, куда надо бить, радиусы действия ракет, вот это все. Т.е полностью оторванное от действительности сознание.
В общем, все как в Лк 17: 28-29.
В остальном, пока бьется с плановой стратегией "варить лягушку" медленно. Кстати, в реальности тот биологический эксперимент с лягушкой не сработал: она каждый раз выпрыгивала.
Цитата:
Грязные методы: Кнырик назвал цель информационной кампании США о ракетных ударах вглубь России.
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"Информационно-психологическая война ведется достаточно грязными методами. Цель этих вбросов сподвигнуть европейские страны дать разрешение и реально начать наносить удары, потому что американцы очень осторожно подобную историю провернули уже с танками. Помните, когда Шольц говорил: "Нет, мы не отправим Леопарды, пока американцы не отправят Абрамсы? Американцы заявили об отправке, Леопарды уже горели на поле боя, а Абрамсы все никак не могли доплыть.
Сейчас проворачивают то же самое, задача США стимулировать Европу вовлечься в конфликт настолько, что никакие мирные инициативы Трампа просто не сработают".
• несмотря на тотальное обсуждение события, факт самого события, официально, ещё ничем, никем и нигде не подтверждён;
• официального объявления о событии не только не было, но может и вовсе не произойти;
• событие могло уже не только произойти, но и уже получить часть обещанных ответов (массированный удар по территории Украины), когда и где, публикации в СМИ, связывающие в своих статьях разрешение США и ракетный удар России - не повод, а следствие - характерное либеральное обиженное нытье.
Цитата:
А Дональд Трамп, который никогда не лезет за словом в карман, как молчал по поводу ATACMS, так и молчит. Как и Джо Байден. Совпадение? Скорее, единодушие
.(выделенно а.п.)
Цитата:
«Война России с НАТО!»: Владимир Путин предупредил Запад о перспективе ударов вглубь России
Цитата:
Jeffrey Sachs: The global situation and how close we are nuclear war
Цитата:
Jeffrey Sachs: This is a US-Russia war
Цитата:
Trump manterrà la promessa di mettere fine alla guerra? L’intervista a Jeffrey Sachs
Цитата:
Has Biden authorised long-range missiles to save Ukraine or sabotage Trump?
Цитата:
Joe Biden’s last-gasp missile decision is momentous for Ukraine – but Putin will retaliate
Zelenskyy must now show that missiles will change this war, and his European allies must unify ahead of the Trump presidency
US president Joe Biden’s last-gasp decision to permit Ukraine to fire western-made, long-range missiles at military targets deep inside Russian territory runs the risk of triggering a sharp increase in retaliatory sabotage, such as cyber and arson attacks on Britain and its European Nato partners.
Vladimir Putin, who ordered the full-scale, illegal invasion of Ukraine 1,000 days ago tomorrow, has long warned that Kyiv’s expanded use of US-, British- and French-made missiles would be viewed by Moscow as an act of war by Nato, and could trigger catastrophic consequences. Now Putin’s bluff, if it is a bluff, is being called.
Much the same may be said of Keir Starmer and the EU. A joint statement by G7 leaders, coinciding with the 1,000-day landmark, pledged “unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as it takes”. Starmer reiterated that commitment en route to this week’s G20 summit in Brazil. Exactly what it means in practice may soon be harshly tested.
Biden’s decision is welcome, if overdue. Amid grinding Russian ground advances, EU feuding and Donald Trump’s unpropitious re-election, the war has reached a critical juncture, militarily and diplomatically. The outcome is in the balance as the scales momentarily tip towards more death and destruction, then back towards some form of Trump-imposed land-for-peace sell-out.
Russia has the advantage at present. But Kyiv will not and must not give up.
Biden was slow to give the missile go-ahead, despite months of pressure from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has argued, with good reason, that Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind its back. Russian airfields, military bases and command centres that are used to mount almost daily, lethal missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure are out of range.
Biden’s tardiness was the product of an excessive caution that has seen the US drag its feet on supplying new weapons from the start. If Ukraine had been armed in 2022 with all the tanks, air-defence systems, missiles and fighter aircraft it has subsequently, belatedly been given, it might not be struggling as it is now.
But his hesitation was reportedly reinforced by a recent classified US intelligence assessment. It warned that Putin could respond to the use of the US long-range army tactical missile system (Atacms), and the similarly capable Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles, AKA Scalp-EG, on Russian soil, with attacks on the US and its allies.
Direct, overt Russian armed retaliation against European military bases or territory seems unlikely, although tensions with Poland and other “frontline” Nato countries are running high. Dark threats by Putin cronies such as former president Dmitry Medvedev about using nuclear weapons are dismissed as rhetorical fearmongering.
Instead, the intelligence finding suggested, Russia may step up covert, deniable sabotage: cyber, infowar and arson attacks of the type it has undertaken in recent years. This would allow the Kremlin to impose a cost, especially on wavering Nato members such as Olaf Scholz’s Germany, while avoiding all-out east-west war.
The GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, and other state organs are said to have been tasked by Putin with preparing asymmetrical responses for exactly the circumstances that are now unfolding. The overall aim: to alarm and disrupt western societies and publics.
The GRU is notorious in Britain for carrying out the non-Ukraine-related Salisbury poisonings in 2018. In March this year, it was linked to arson at a warehouse in east London supposedly used to supply Ukraine. Attacks on a factory in Poland and non-military targets in Latvia and Lithuania are also attributed to the GRU. In May, Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, said 12 people had been arrested for beatings, arson and “acts of sabotage on commission from Russian intelligence services”.
These may have been mere practice runs. Kaja Kallas, former prime minister of Estonia and newly nominated EU foreign policy chief, says Moscow is waging a “shadow war” on Europe. Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, warns that Russia may target energy producers and arms factories. Europe needed a coordinated approach, Kallas said. “How far do we let them go on our soil?”
Nor is the threat confined to land. Last week, in the latest in a series of incidents, a Russian spy ship – officially classed as an “oceanographic research vessel” – was militarily escorted out of the Irish Sea. Its unexplained presence there and around UK coasts has renewed concerns about the security of critical undersea infrastructure, including pipelines and internet cables linking the UK, Ireland, Europe and the US.
Described as the latest attempt to probe western defences and vulnerabilities, the incident followed an investigation in Nordic countries last year into suspected Russian state-led espionage ops. Spy ships disguised as fishing vessels were being used to plan future attacks on windfarms and communications cables in the North Sea, it said.
However Russia responds – and the initial Kremlin reaction on Monday was wait-and-see – Biden’s decision challenges Ukraine and the European Nato allies, too. Having pressed so hard for so long, Zelenskyy must prove that the missiles make a difference. US officials are sceptical they can change the course of the war. EU officials in Brussels hope they will.
What Biden appears to hope is that long-range strikes on North Korean troops newly deployed in Russia’s contested Kursk region will deter Pyongyang from further involvement. That seems improbable, too. Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s ostracised dictator, is Putin’s new best bro. He’s not noted for a caring attitude to human life.
With Trump’s advisers threatening a de facto betrayal of Ukraine, Europe’s leaders, including Starmer, must put their money, lots of it, and their weapons where their mouths are – and help Zelenskyy maintain the fight, even without US hardware and financial backing, if need be.
The problem is that unity of purpose, and resources, are lacking. Scholz broke with most of the EU last week when he phoned Putin for a chat. The chancellor (who continues to refuse to supply Germany’s Taurus long-range missiles to Kyiv) said he was pursuing peace. But it looked like weakness with snap elections brewing, and it angered other leaders. “No one will stop Putin with phone calls,” Tusk snarled. “Telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole west for Ukraine.”
The “whole west” means France, too. But President Emmanuel Macron, having spoken frequently and passionately about the vital importance for Europe of defeating Russia, now appears to be temporising about actually letting Kyiv fire French missiles. Will Starmer give a green light, or will he also get cold feet?
With Ukraine burning, Europe divided, and Biden two months away from oblivion, it’s little wonder that Putin, with a host of dirty tricks up his sleeve, thinks he’s winning the Ukraine missile crisis.
Цитата:
Прорыв РФ в Часове Яре, реакция на разрешение «дальнобоя», последствия нового удара по энергетике.
Цитата:
Цитата:
UE: Sikorski: Polska od wielu miesięcy zabiegała o możliwości atakowania przez Ukrainę celów w Rosji
Szef polskiego MSZ Radosław Sikorski skomentował w poniedziałek w Brukseli decyzję prezydenta USA Joe Bidena o tym, żeby Ukraina przy użyciu amerykańskiej broni mogła atakować cele na terytorium Rosji mówiąc, że Polska także od wielu miesięcy zabiegała o taką decyzję.
Sikorski zaznaczył co prawda, że nie wiadomo jeszcze, jaki będzie zasięg tej decyzji amerykańskiej administracji, ale pokreślił, że jest to odpowiedź USA na wysłanie przez Koreę Północną żołnierzy do walk na wojnie w Ukrainie oraz na ostatnie okrutne ataki rosyjskie w tym kraju.
"Ukraina ma prawo się bronić" - ocenił Sikorski, dodając, że chociaż amerykańska decyzja nie była oficjalnym punktem agendy poniedziałkowego posiedzenia ministrów spraw zagranicznych krajów UE w Brukseli, to została przedyskutowany na marginesie spotkania i przyjęta przez państwa członkowskie z satysfakcją.
Minister powiedział, że została ona poparta przez szefa unijnej dyplomacji Josepa Borrella, który chce, żeby została ona rozszerzona także na typy broni, które zawierają amerykańskie komponenty - co oznacza, że na jej użycie muszą wyrazić zgodę USA - ale znajdujące się w rękach państw członkowskich.
Цитата:
1000 dni czekania. Z decyzją Zachodu ws. ataków w Rosji jest kilka problemów
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1000 dni zajęło Zachodowi wyrażenie zgody na to, by Ukraińcy mogli używać broni dalekiego zasięgu na terenie Rosji. Chodzi o użycie pocisków ATACMS do wyrzutni HIMARS oraz pocisków manewrujących SCALP/STORM SHADOW. Co to oznacza dla Ukrainy?
• Administracja Joe Bidena wydała Ukrainie zgodę na użycie pocisków ATACMS na terenie Rosji. Francuzi i Brytyjczycy zezwolili zaś na użycie pocisków samosterujących.
• Nie będzie to jednak, jak mówią eksperci, przełom w działaniach wojennych. Pocisków ATACMS Ukraińcy mają mało, jest też problem z przenoszeniem pocisków SCALP.
• W jaki sposób może na te działania odpowiedzieć Rosja? Np. uderzając w zachodnie satelity.
• We wtorek minie 1000 dni od początku pełnoskalowej rosyjskiej inwazji na Ukrainę.
Przełomowa decyzja Zachodu, na którą Ukraina czekała niemal trzy lata
Według Reutersa Ukraina ma przeprowadzić pierwsze ataki dalekiego zasięgu w nadchodzących dniach przy użyciu pocisków ATACMS, które mają zasięg ok. 300 km.
Jak zaznaczył Reuters, na zmianę decyzji USA miało wpłynąć rozmieszczenie na froncie przez Rosję północnokoreańskich wojsk lądowych.
Biały Dom odmówił komentarza w tej sprawie.
Chociaż niektórzy urzędnicy amerykańscy wyrazili sceptycyzm, że zezwolenie na ataki dalekiego zasięgu zmieni ogólną trajektorię wojny, decyzja ta może pomóc Ukrainie w momencie, kiedy siły rosyjskie osiągają przewagę i prawdopodobnie postawić Kijów w lepszej pozycji negocjacyjnej, jeśli dojdzie do rozmów o zawieszeniu broni.
Tylko czy na pewno?
Można mieć poważne wątpliwości, czy po niemal trzech latach wojny,
decyzje zachodnich rządów zmienią przebieg działań zbrojnych. Mówi o tym m.in. komandor Wiesław Goździewicz, ekspert w zakresie planowania operacyjnego NATO.
W jego ocenie, z perspektywy operacyjnej nie zmieni się dla Ukrainy nic. Z perspektywy politycznej zniknie natomiast, jak wskazuje, argument, że zachodni sojusznicy uniemożliwiają Ukrainie "zwycięstwo".
Pociski ATACMS, jak przekonuje Goździewicz, były w Ukrainie w użyciu dość intensywnie, szczególnie wiosną, kiedy do tego kraju trafiły. Nie używano ich jednak na terenie Rosji.
Podejrzewa on jednak, że
ukraińskie zapasy pocisków do wyrzutni HIMARS mogą być niewielkie
, gdyż operatorzy używali ich nader szczodrze. Teraz mogą być stosowane głównie do niszczenia celów wysokowartościowych. Aczkolwiek, jak dodaje, rosyjskie systemy WRE (walki radioelektronicznej) też robią swoje i starsze wersje pocisków do wyrzutni HIMRAS mogą być skutecznie zagłuszane.
Spóźniona decyzja Zachodu. Eksperci oceniają ją wstrzemięźliwie
Nieco inaczej patrzy na to dr Dariusz Materniak, twórca portalu pol-ukr.net. W rozmowie z WNP.PL przekonuje, że wydanie zgody przez kraje Zachodu na użycie ich broni "z pewnością zmieni" obraz konfliktu. Tyle że jest to decyzja bardzo poważnie spóźniona.
Gdyby podjęto ją np. jesienią 2022 r., kiedy była możliwość prowadzenia przez Siły Zbrojne Ukrainy szybkich operacji manewrowych, efekty byłyby dużo lepsze.
Obecnie, cóż, wiele zależy od tego, jaki będzie faktycznie zakres możliwości wykorzystania tych pocisków. Już nawet zgoda na użycie w samym obwodzie kurskim znacząco poprawi sytuację sił ukraińskich w tym rejonie i pomoże zatrzymać rosyjską kontrofensywę - a to z kolei ma szansę poprawić istotnie pozycję Ukrainy przy stole negocjacyjnym - przekonuje dr Materniak.
Jego zdaniem, gdyby możliwości użycia były szersze i dotyczyły także innych regonów, to tym bardziej poprawiłoby sytuację na całym froncie, ukraińskiej armii pozwoliłoby na łatwiejsze (czyt. przy mniejszych stratach własnych) utrzymanie linii frontu, a być może nawet pozwoliłoby na jakieś lokalne kontrataki. A z kolei Rosjanom utrudniłoby dowodzenia i skomplikowało logistykę - taki efekt HIMARS-a, tyle że o większym zasięgu.
Podkreśla jednocześnie, iż w obecnej sytuacji negocjacje to w zasadzie jedyna sensowna opcja zakończenia wojny
. Rosja nie ma sił, żeby szybko doprowadzić do zwycięstwa (w sensie np. dojścia do Dniepru, zajęcia reszty do Donbasu) czy czegokolwiek, co dałoby się zareklamować jako zwycięstwo. Z kolei Ukraina nie ma sił na odbicie zajętych terenów, więc faktycznie jest pat bez szans na przełamanie. Im szybciej zamrożenie, tym lepiej, mniej ludzi zginie
W zmianę stanu rzeczy dzięki amerykańskiej zgodzie wierzy z kolei Mariusz Cielma, redaktor naczelny Dziennika Zbrojnego. W dużej mierze, jak mówi, lokalnie, na określonych odcinkach frontu, ale nie tylko.
- Myślę przede wszystkim o zgrupowaniu UA w obwodzie kurskim, więc jeśli pociski ATACMS będą używane do rażenia zaplecza logistycznego wojsk rosyjskich, to może przyniesie to jakieś korzyści.
Pociski te były już używane na terenach okupowanych, na Krymie np.
, i nie wpłynęło to jakoś istotnie na obraz konfliktu. Szczególnie że ich partie nie są duże. Ale patrząc na całość ich wykorzystania, nie przekłada się to na żaden hurraoptymizm. Korzystne byłoby, gdyby dostarczono je w wersji o zasięgu do 300 km i wykorzystano np. do ataków na lotniska, z których startują rosyjskie samoloty z bombami kierowanymi - przekonuje w rozmowie z WNP.
SCALP wydłuży Ukraińcom ręce. Ale problem jest z nosicielem pocisku
A co ze Storm Shadow/SCALP, czyli brytyjsko-francuskimi pociskami samosterującymi? Wiesław Goździewicz przekonuje, że to nieco inna kategoria niż balistyczne pociski ATACMS. Być może stąd - jak spekuluje - zapowiedź szybszych dostaw francuskich samolotów Mirage 2000, które mogłyby zastąpić samoloty Su-24.
- Tyle że proces szkolenia ich załóg potrwa miesiącami. Prawdopodobnie się on toczy, ale nie wiadomo od jak dawna i nie należy oczekiwać, że będzie on krótszy od procesu szkolenia na F-16.
Pojawienie się kombinacji samolotów Mirage 2000 i pocisków SCALP w pewnym sensie "wydłużyłoby ręce" Ukraińców.
O ile ich załogi zdecydowałyby się na ryzyko wejścia w przestrzeń powietrzną Rosji, ponieważ odpowiednio dalej "sięgnęliby" w głąb terytorium Rosji. Ale umówmy się - to nie będzie żaden gamechanger. Wybitnie dużej przewagi taktycznej nad stroną rosyjską to Ukraińcom nie da. Tym bardziej że już pokazali, iż są w stanie razić cele leżące nawet około tysiąca km od granicy.
Podobnego zdania jest także Mariusz Cielma. Jego zdaniem również można pokładać, jak przekonuje, "większe nadzieje" w używaniu pocisków Storm Shadow. Problem jest tu jednak dwojaki: z dostępnością platform przenoszenia i dostępnością samych pocisków. Kilkadziesiąt pocisków nie zmieni zresztą obrazu wojny, choć będzie na pewno skuteczniejsze, niż stosowane dziś do dalekich ataków drony z lżejszymi głowami. Mogą to być punktowe, choć może nawet głębsze uderzenia niż pociskami ATACMS.
Ale mimo to, rosyjska karawana jedzie dalej - dodaje smutno Cielma.
Pozostaje zatem ostatnie pytanie: dlaczego tak późno? Oddajmy jeszcze raz głos Mariuszowie Cielmie. Jego zdaniem, w tym przypadku trzeba szukać odpowiedzi w uwarunkowaniach geopolitycznych i polityce administracji Białego Domu, a nie w oczekiwaniach wojskowych. I tu nie jest on również optymistą.
- Próbowano kontrolować eskalację i skutki użycia broni precyzyjnej dalekiego zasięgu. Zakładam, że argument o wojskach z Korei Północnej jest w dużej mierze pretekstem. Biden odchodzi i uznał widać, że wyjdzie naprzeciw prośbom ukraińskim. Wykalkulowano, jak sądzę, że odpowiedź Putina nie będzie zbyt intensywna, bo będzie już czekał na decyzje administracji Trumpa. Nie sądzę, by Rosja poszła w stronę "zmasakrowania" jakiegoś ukraińskiego miasta. Putin musi po prostu przeczekać te ewentualne ataki Ukrainy, czekając na nowe władze w USA - podsumowuje.
Kosmiczna odpowiedź Władimira Putina? Ekspert wskazuje zagrożenie
Trudno oczekiwać jednak, że Władimir Putin pozostanie bierny wobec potencjalnych ostrzałów na terenie Rosji. Kmdr Goździewicz przypomina, że rosyjski prezydent zapowiedział we wrześniu, że
użycie pocisków ATACMS na terenie Rosji będzie potraktowane jako wejście Zachodu do wojny.
Jak przekonuje oficer, Federacja Rosyjska nie dysponuje obecnie potencjałem do otwartej konfrontacji z NATO. Rosjanie mogliby jednak zwiększyć natężenie działań hybrydowych, a oprócz tego - sięgnąć po tzw. środki antysatelitarne.
- Jest to o tyle prawdopodobne, że Putin sugerował, iż namierzanie, wspomaganie targetingu na terenie FR jest możliwe w największej mierze dzięki satelitom. Czy to optoelektronicznym, czy radarowym. A te można zagłuszać czy "oślepiać", np. technologią laserową. Tym bardziej że większość satelitów, wykorzystywanych przez państwa zachodnie do wspomagania procesu targetingu to urządzenia niewojskowe, nie stanowią własności NATO, co sprawia, że trudno byłoby uzasadnić uruchomienie art. piąty Traktatu Waszyngtońskiego w razie obezwładnienia urządzenia komercyjnego - zauważa Goździewicz.
Цитата:
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Fury in Moscow as Biden allows Kyiv to use long-range missiles on Putin’s forces
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Цитата:
Putin’s forces in Russia will finally face long-range missiles. Ukraine has to hit them hard and fast
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Цитата:
Trump's Plans For Russia And The Middle East | Victor Davis Hanson
P.S.
А.п. напоминает Уважаемым коллегам, что в связи с тем, что провайдер села обитания а.п., принял решение улучшить качество своей работы(что само по себе обнадёживает), начиная с 14 ноября сего года, все публикации а.п. (в разделах «примечания и дополнения», «фанаты и жизнь», «варвар и еретик», и «дураки и дороги»), будут происходить нерегулярно, случайным, можно даже сказать, возможным образом.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Германия и Финляндия выпустили совместное заявление по поводу повреждения кабеля в Балтийском море. В сообщении, опубликованном на сайте МИД ФРГ, говорится, что это свидетельствует о «нестабильности нашего времени», инцидент тщательно расследуется.
«Защита нашей общей критической инфраструктуры жизненно важна для нашей безопасности и устойчивости наших обществ», — говорится в совместном заявлении.
Bloomberg передает, что помимо немецко-финского кабеля был также поврежден подводный кабель, соединяющий Литву и Швецию. Об этом сообщил литовский провайдер Telia Lietuva AB. Эти кабели находятся на расстоянии 10 м.
Цитата:
Цитата:
Между ФРГ и Финляндией поврежден подводный интернет-кабель
Финская компания Cinia заявила о разрыве на оптоволоконном кабеле C-Lion 1, проложенном в Балтийском море от острова Сантахамина близ Хельсинки до немецкого портового города Росток. Из-за разрыва телекоммуникационная связь была прервана.
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Кабель C-Lion 1 частично проходит вдоль газопровода "Северный поток" на расстоянии нескольких сотен метров. В Cinia заявили, что это единственный подводный кабель, ведущий из Финляндии в Центральную Европу.
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NATO drill sends divers, drones to sneak by underwater alarm sensors
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MILAN — NATO has tested a series of alliance-made underwater sensors, meant to protect critical infrastructure in the oceans, by sending divers and drones to sneak past them.
The experimentation event took place on Nov. 14 and was co-organized by Allied Special Operations Forces Command, or SOFCOM, and the NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation (CMRE) in La Spezia, Italy.
The test, held in the context of the first edition of Exercise Bold Machina 2024, consisted of running special forces teams fitted with different equipment, including diving propulsion devices, through detection systems to assess if they would be picked up and provide engineers with insight into signature variations.
Several companies provided a mix of sensors for the drill designed detect a variety of signals in the acoustic, magnetic, passive, and electric realms, officials said. Exercise organizers hooked up the readings to an augmented reality simulator in order to have analysts experience it directly.
The biggest challenge when it comes to forces signature management underwater, is the element of uncertainty.
“It’s not knowing if somebody knows, or if you’re being detected. … It is understanding that there is a system that has the capability to detect you, but that you know nothing about it and don’t know exactly what the capability is,” U.S. Navy Capt. Kurt Muhler, SOFCOM maritime development director, told Defense News in an interview.
Muhler noted that the war in Ukraine was a “driving force” behind Bold Machina, given the extent of the damage and destruction done to critical infrastructure by Russian bombardment on land and at sea.
“Russia is attacking Ukrainian infrastructure – why are they doing that? That’s almost a more viable target for them than the Ukrainian military is. … So that gives us some pause and reflection: how vulnerable are we?” he said. “If SOF can play a role in helping and proving this technology, that’s returning value for our nations and NATO.”
SOFCOM’s role is to deter in peacetime and defend in crisis against the alliance’s two main threats: Russia and terrorist organizations, according to NATO’s website.
The rapid proliferation of manned and unmanned underwater systems as well as the higher level of maritime activity have changed the operational landscape at sea, raising the intensity of competition over ocean spaces and introducing new types of threats.
According to Muhler, there is a lot of “political interest” in defending key underwater structures, as in many cases these are not owned or within the boundaries of any single nation, leading to a multinational approach when it comes to their protection.
“That political energy translates to resourcing the scientists, engineers and industry to come up with solutions. That’s the driving force for us to get in the water and have a seat at the table,” he said.
Sweden tells citizens to prepare for WAR: Five million households get pamphlets on how to get their home ready for nuclear armageddon... as Biden is accused of trying to start World War Three
Sweden is sending out five million pamphlets to residents urging them to prepare for the possibility of war, with instructions on how to stockpile food and even seek shelter during a nuclear attack, as fears grow of a conflict between Russia and NATO.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Stockholm has repeatedly urged Swedes to prepare both mentally and logistically for a possible conflict, citing the worsening security situation in its vicinity.
It comes as tensions between Moscow and the West have escalated to new heights after Joe Biden gave Kyiv the green light to blast targets deep inside Russia with US-supplied long-range missiles, which Donald Trump's son has criticised as making sure 'they get WWIII going before my father has a chance to create peace'.
The booklet 'If Crisis or War Comes', sent out by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), contains information about how to prepare for emergencies such as war, natural disasters, cyber attacks and terrorism.
'An insecure world requires preparedness. The military threat to Sweden has increased and we must prepare for the worst - an armed attack,' its new introduction states.
In one of the more worrying excerpts, which harks back to advice given by governments during the darkest days of the Cold War, it informs people of the risk of nuclear weapons.
'The global security situation increases the risks that nuclear weapons could be used. In the event of an attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, take cover in the same way as in an air attack,' the pamphlet instructs readers.
'Shelter provides the best protection. After a couple of days, the radiation has decreased significantly,' it advises, adding that people will be warned of attacks over the radio and should go to basements or subways if there is no better option.
Another message, which has been brought forward from the middle of the booklet in the updated version, reads: 'If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false.'
Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said that as the global context had changed, advice to Swedish households had to be reviewed to reflect the reality of the situation
The pamphlet urges people to locate the nearest shelter to their work, school or home, and prepare to stay inside it for days at an end
The booklet warns people to seek shelter in case of an air raid siren or other emergency
In the US, Biden's move to permit Ukraine's use of US-supplied long-range missiles has riled supporters of president-elect Donald Trump, who pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.
Trump's oldest son, Donald Trump Jr, posted on X after Biden's decision was announced, saying that 'the military industrial complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives'.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long pressed western backers to allow his country to strike military targets deeper inside Russia, but allies had resisted his pleas amid fears that doing so would cross a 'red line' set by Vladimir Putin.
Back in September, Russia's president said that he would consider western nations 'direct participants' in the war in Ukraine if they were to provide Kyiv with the ability to strike targets inside Russia.
He has also suggested he may provide Russian missiles to Western adversaries to strike western targets abroad as a course of retaliation.
Today, a pro-Putin mouthpiece has warned Brits of 'nuclear war by Christmas' following Biden's decision.
Sergey Markov, a former spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin said Western allies including Britain, France and the US had taken a 'big jump' towards nuclear conflict by giving Ukraine such an approval.
Markov, a regular Putin 'mouthpiece', said the shock move by US President Joe Biden could mean that Britons were unable to wish each other 'Happy Christmas' as they could be in shelters.
His sabre-rattling in an interview on the BBC Radio 4's The World At One was echoed, remarkably, by the son of the US President-Elect Donald Trump.
Donald Trump Jr suggested those behind the move to approve Ukraine's use of US-supplied ATACM missiles wanted to 'make sure they got World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives'.
However, President Biden's shock move was welcomed by Ukraine, by senior UK defence sources and by many European leaders.
Senior UK defence sources and many European leaders noted that the Kremlin and its mouthpieces in the state-controlled media and academia had threatened nuclear war every time the West had stepped up its support for Ukraine – such as when it provided tanks, fighter jets and other sophisticated weapon systems.
But Mr Markov was adamant this move was different because Western militaries would be directly involved in the conflict for the first time – as Ukraine would require their assistance to use the precision guided missile systems.
Sweden and its Nordic neighbours have become increasingly anxious about the situation in Ukraine and Moscow's belligerence over recent years.
Finland has also launched a new preparedness website while Norwegians recently received booklets instructing them on how to manage on their own for a week in the event of war and other threats.
Both Sweden and Finland dropped decades of military non-alignment to join the US-led military alliance NATO in the wake of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The booklet 'If Crisis or War Comes' contains information about how to prepare for emergencies, including war
People are told to stock up on fuel in case of emergencies
The pamphlet advises Swedes to stockpile food, water and medicine, and keep warm clothes and blankets to hand
A page from the pamphlet which advises people on the best places to seek shelter in case of an emergency
Prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Scandinavian countries conducted a comprehensive review of national security policy and just two months later applied to join the mammoth bloc.
After nearly two years of political jostling and against a backdrop of menacing threats from Putin and his cronies, Sweden finally became a member of NATO back in March.
The new pamphlet is an updated version of a pamphlet that Sweden has issued five times since World War II.
However, underlining the seriousness of the potential threat, the pamphlet is twice the size of previous years
The previous version of Sweden's pamphlet was sent out in 2018, and made headlines at the time as it was the first time it had been sent to Swedes since 1961 at the height of the Cold War.
'The security situation is serious and we all need to strengthen our resilience to face various crises and ultimately war,' MSB director Mikael Frisell said in a statement.
Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said last month that as the global context had changed, advice to Swedish households had to be reviewed to reflect the reality of the situation.
The 32-page document outlines with simple illustrations the threats facing the Nordic nation, including military conflict, natural disasters, and cyber and terror attacks.
It includes tips for preparedness, such as keeping non-perishable food in stock and storing water, as well as giving people pointers on how to take shelter in an emergency situation.
MSB said the updated 2024 version had a stronger focus on preparation for war.
It goes on: 'When someone wants to take the right to rule over us by force, it threatens our right to a free and independent life.
'There are also ways other than military force to influence and damage our country, for example cyberattacks, influence campaigns, terrorism and sabotage.
'That can happen at any time, and a lot is going on here and now. We cannot take our freedom for granted. And we must have will and courage to defend our open society, even if it means sacrifices.'
The brochure is available in print in both Swedish and English and digital versions are available in several other languages - including Arabic, Farsi, Ukrainian, Polish, Somali and Finnish.
Sweden's former army chief Micael Byden alarmed many of his compatriots in January when he urged them to consider their own preparedness.
'Swedes have to mentally prepare for war,' he said.
Also on Monday, the government in Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia, launched a website gathering information on preparedness for different crises.
Finland shares a 830-mile border with Russia, and after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, Helsinki announced plans to build a 125-mile fence along parts of it.
Three metres tall and topped with barbed wire, it is due to be completed by 2026.
The country last year closed its eight border crossings with Russia, following an influx of migrants which Helsinki claimed was a hybrid attack orchestrated by Moscow.
Sweden and Finland were previously considered neutral states, but are now ramping up their readiness for potential conflicts.
After the end of the Cold War, the country drastically slashed its defence spending as it focused its military efforts on international peacekeeping missions.
But it reversed course following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, and redoubled its efforts to increase preparations after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Stockholm has reintroduced limited conscription, massively increased defence spending and reopened a garrison on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland.
It subsequently strengthened bomb shelters, shored up drinking water supplies and transport infrastructure, appointed a minister of civil defence and established a Psychological Defence Agency aimed at combatting disinformation.
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Last month, Swedish defence minister Pal Jonson warned that Moscow could attack Sweden as it grapples for control of the Baltic Sea, with Russian naval fleets docked in St Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
'Russia poses a threat to Sweden, as it does to the rest of NATO. We cannot rule out a Russian attack on our country,' Jonson told Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita.
Though the Kremlin's forces are 'tied up in Ukraine,' he said, Vladimir Putin's government has shown it is 'willing to take serious military and political risks.'
NATO on Sunday scrambled its warplanes from Poland and Romania to the border with Ukraine after Russia targeted the country's critical infrastructure with a new onslaught of missile attacks.
The country's energy operator DTEK announced emergency power cuts at around 7am UK time on Sunday morning affecting the Kyiv, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions following overnight drone strikes.
It said shortly thereafter thermal power plants had been struck.
Air defences were deployed to intercept drones in Kyiv as residents were urged to take cover, while missiles bound for the west of the stricken country prompted NATO to send warplanes to assist.
'Due to the massive attack by the Russian Federation using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles on objects located, among others, in western Ukraine, Polish and allied [NATO] aircraft have begun operating in our airspace,' said a statement from the Polish operational command.
'On-duty fighter pairs were scrambled, and the ground-based air defence and radar reconnaissance systems reached the highest state of readiness.
'The steps taken are aimed at ensuring safety in areas bordering the threatened areas.'
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Sabotage suspected after Baltic Sea telecoms cable C-Lion1 suddenly stops working
Germany cites Russia's war against Ukraine and the threat of "hybrid warfare" - as Finnish authorities say it could take two weeks to fix the outage.
The outage under the Baltic Sea was reported by telecoms company Cinia. File pic: iStock
An undersea fibre optic cable between Germany and Finland has stopped working and might have been deliberately cut by an unknown party, according to authorities.
The 729 mile (1,173km) C-Lion1 cable under the Baltic Sea from Helsinki to Rostock went offline just after 2am GMT on Monday.
The outage was reported by Finnish state-controlled cyber security and telecoms company Cinia.
A physical inspection has not yet been done but the abrupt nature suggests it was completely severed by an outside force, said chief executive Ari-Jussi Knaapila.
Germany and Finland's foreign ministers said they were "deeply concerned" and it "immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage".
A joint statement said: "Our European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors.
"Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies."
Cinia said "corrective measures" were under way and a repair ship was being prepared.
The damage to the fibre optic cable could take around five to 15 days to fix, Mr Knaapila told reporters.
The pipe runs under the Baltic Sea between Helsinki and Rostock
He said the damage occurred near the southern tip of Sweden's Oland island and that Cinia was working with authorities to investigate.
The cable links central European telecoms networks to Finland, other Nordic countries and Asia.
A Chinese ship was blamed for damaging another cable, the Balticconnector gas pipeline, last year. Pic: Finnish Border Guard/Reuters
Another submerged gas line and several telecoms cables were seriously damaged last year in the Baltic Sea.
A Chinese container ship dragging its anchor was named as prime suspect by Finnish police. However, they have not said if they think the damage was intentional.
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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea cut, Germany and Finland fear sabotage
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HELSINKI/STOCKHOLM/VILNIUS, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Two undersea fibre-optic communications cables in the Baltic Sea, including one linking Finland and Germany, were severed, raising suspicions of sabotage by bad actors, countries and companies involved said on Monday.
The episode recalled other incidents in the same waterway that authorities have probed as potentially malicious including damage to a gas pipeline and undersea cables last year and the 2022 explosions of the Nord Sea gas pipelines.
The 1,200-kilometre (745-mile) cable connecting Helsinki to the German port of Rostock stopped working around 0200 GMT on Monday, Finnish state-controlled cyber security and telecoms company Cinia said.
A 218-km (135-mile) internet link between Lithuania and Sweden's Gotland Island went out of service at about 0800 GMT on Sunday, according to Lithuania's Telia Lietuva, part of Sweden's Telia Company (TELIA.ST), opens new tab group.
Finland and Germany said in a joint statement that they were
"deeply concerned about the severed undersea cable" and were investigating "an incident (that) immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage."
Europe's security is threatened by Russia's war against Ukraine and "hybrid warfare by malicious actors," the joint statement said, without naming the actors.
"Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies," Germany and Finland said.
A spokesperson for Telia Lietuva, Audrius Stasiulaitis, said the other cable was severed as well. It is owned and operated by Sweden's Arelion to carry Telia Lietuva's internet traffic, the Telia spokesperson said.
"It is absolutely central that it is clarified why we currently have two cables in the Baltic Sea that are not working," Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden's minister of civil defence, told Swedish public broadcaster SVT.
Located in northern Europe, the Baltic Sea is an active commercial shipping route and is ringed by nine countries including Russia.
The damage to the Finland-Germany cable occurred near the southern tip of Sweden's Oland Island and could require five to 15 days to repair, Cinia's chief executive, Ari-Jussi Knaapila, told a news conference.
Last year a subsea gas pipeline and several telecoms cables running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea were severely damaged in an incident raising alarm bells in the region.
Investigators of the 2023 cases in Finland and Estonia have named a Chinese container ship that they believe dragged its anchor and caused the damage. But they have not said whether the damage was accidental or intentional.
In 2022 the Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia to Germany in the Baltic Sea were destroyed by explosions in a case that remains under investigation by German authorities.
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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted, sparking warnings of possible ‘hybrid warfare’
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Two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea have been suddenly disrupted, according to local telecommunications companies, amid fresh warnings of possible Russian interference with global undersea infrastructure.
A communications cable between Lithuania and Sweden was cut on Sunday morning around 10:00 a.m. local time, a spokesperson from telecommunications company Telia Lithuania confirmed to CNN.
The company’s monitoring systems could tell there was a cut due to the traffic disruption, and that the cause was likely physical damage to the cable itself, Telia Lithuania spokesperson Audrius Stasiulaitis told CNN. “We can confirm that the internet traffic disruption was not caused by equipment failure but by physical damage to the fiber optic cable.”
Another cable linking Finland and Germany was also disrupted, according to Cinia, the state-controlled Finnish company that runs the link. The C-Lion cable – the only direct connection of its kind between Finland and Central Europe – spans nearly 1,200 kilometers (730 miles), alongside other key pieces of infrastructure, including gas pipelines and power cables.
The area that was disrupted along the Finnish-German cable is roughly 60 to 65 miles away from the Lithuanian-Swedish cable that was cut, a CNN analysis of the undersea routes shows.
It is unclear what exactly caused the fault in the C-Lion cable – Cinia said in a statement that it is still investigating the issue. A physical inspection has not yet been conducted, Reuters reported citing the company’s chief executive Ari-Jussi Knaapila, who told a press conference on Monday that the sudden outage implied that the cable was cut by an outside force.
The foreign ministers of Finland and Germany said in a joint statement on Monday evening that they were “deeply concerned” about the severed C-Lion cable, and raised the possibility of “hybrid warfare.”
“The fact that such an incident immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage speaks volumes about the volatility of our times. A thorough investigation is underway,” the statement said. “Our European security is not only under threat from Russia‘s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors.”
Fears of undersea sabotage
The incidents come just weeks after the United States warned that it had detected increased Russian military activity around key undersea cables. Two US officials told CNN in September that the US believed Russia was now more likely to carry out potential sabotage operations on these critical pieces of infrastructure.
The warning came after a joint investigation by the public broadcasters of Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland, which reported in April 2023 that Russia had a fleet of suspected spy ships operating in Nordic waters as part of a program of potential sabotage of underwater cables and wind farms in the region.
The extent of the disruption caused by Cinia’s C-Lion fault revealed Monday is unclear. The most important data flows are usually routed through several different cables, to avoid overreliance on a single link.
A repair vessel is ready to go to the site of the fault, Cinia said in a statement Monday evening. It said it did not know how long repairs would take, but added it typically takes between five and 15 days for submarine cables.
Lithuanian state media was first to report the cut between Lithuania and Sweden, and quoted Telia Lithuania’s chief technology officer Andrius Šemeškevičius saying that the cable handled roughly a third of Lithuania’s internet capacity. Capacity has been restored since the disruption.
The cable is operated by Arelion, a Swedish telecommunications company. Martin Sjögren, a spokesperson for the company, confirmed the damage to the BCS East-West link and said that the company is in contact with Sweden’s military and civil authorities about the incident. The cable had connected Gotland, Sweden and Šventoji, Lithuania, he said.
The issue was detected on Sunday during routine 24/7 monitoring of the company’s network, and the cable is expected to be repaired over the next few weeks, depending on weather conditions, he added.
Cinia did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for further details. CNN has reached out to the Swedish and Lithuanian foreign ministries for comment.
How Tulsi Gabbard Became a Favorite of Russia’s State Media
President-elect Donald J. Trump’s pick to be the director of national intelligence has raised alarms among national security officials.
Tulsi Gabbard’s remarks have made her a darling of the Kremlin’s vast state media apparatus — and, more recently, of President-elect Donald J. Trump.Credit...Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times
In 2017, when she was still a Democratic member of Congress, Tulsi Gabbard traveled to Syria and met the country’s authoritarian president, Bashar al-Assad. She also accused the United States of supporting terrorists there.
The day after Vladimir V. Putin began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Ms. Gabbard blamed the United States and NATO for provoking the war by ignoring Russia’s security concerns.
She has since suggested that the United States covertly worked with Ukraine on dangerous biological pathogens and was culpable for the bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Germany in September 2022. European prosecutors and U.S. officials say that sabotage was carried out by Ukrainian operatives.
Ms. Gabbard’s comments have earned her sharp rebukes from officials across the political spectrum in Washington, who have accused her of parroting the anti-American propaganda of the country’s adversaries. Her remarks have also made her a darling of the Kremlin’s vast state media apparatus — and, more recently, of President-elect Donald J. Trump, who this week picked her to oversee the nation’s 18 intelligence agencies and departments.
Her selection to be the director of national intelligence has raised alarms among national security officials, not only because of her lack of experience in intelligence but also because she has embraced a worldview that mirrors disinformation straight out of the Kremlin’s playbook.
No evidence has emerged that she has ever collaborated in any way with Russia’s intelligence agencies. Instead, according to analysts and former officials, Ms. Gabbard seems to simply share the Kremlin’s geopolitical views, especially when it comes to the exercise of American military power.
In Russia, the reaction to her potential appointment has been gleeful, even if Mr. Putin’s government remains wary of American policies, even under a second Trump administration.
“The C.I.A. and the F.B.I. are trembling,” Komsomolskaya Pravda, a Russian newspaper, wrote on Friday in a glowing profile of Ms. Gabbard, noting, positively, that Ukrainians consider her “an agent of the Russian state.” Rossiya-1, a state television channel, called her a Russian “comrade” in Mr. Trump’s emerging cabinet.
Russian media has emphasized Ms. Gabbard’s desire to improve relations with Moscow, according to FilterLabs, a firm that analyzes social media, state-run news organizations and other internet postings to track public sentiment in Russia.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Moscow this month. Russian media has emphasized Ms. Gabbard’s desire to improve relations with Moscow.Credit...Pool photo by Yuri Kochetkov
“Gabbard fits an overall pattern of Trump breaking with much of the post-Cold War consensus,” said Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs. “She is, for Russia, the one that perhaps most perfectly embodies the changes they were hoping for from the U.S.”
Mr. Trump’s critics called the choice a dangerous one that would undermine national security and that signaled a deference to Mr. Putin’s worldview.
“Nominating Gabbard for director of national intelligence is the way to Putin’s heart, and it tells the world that America under Trump will be the Kremlin’s ally rather than an adversary,” Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a professor of history at New York University and the author of “Strongmen,” a 2020 book about authoritarian leaders, wrote on Friday. “And so we would have a national security official who would potentially compromise our national security.”
Asked for comment on Ms. Gabbard’s pro-Russia stances and her amplification of Moscow’s messaging, Trump transition officials sent a copy of the president-elect’s comments when he announced his pick: “I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our intelligence community.”
If confirmed, she would have responsibility to oversee the very agency that monitored and called out Russian disinformation and influence efforts throughout the 2024 campaign.
She faces an uphill battle for confirmation in the Senate.
Among members from both parties, her tacit support of Russia’s war aims in Ukraine and her repetition of Kremlin disinformation have raised doubts about whether she should be given oversight of the intelligence agencies, including the responsibility of preparing the highly classified daily intelligence briefings for the returning president.
In choosing her, Mr. Trump signaled his deep distrust of those agencies. During his first administration, he publicly rebuked senior intelligence officers when their assessments differed from his own. Ms. Gabbard’s iconoclastic views over the years suggest that she shares that distrust, especially when it comes to Russia and the war in Ukraine.
Ms. Gabbard has blamed the United States and NATO for provoking the war in Ukraine by ignoring Russia’s security concerns.Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Time
In several public appearances and in social media posts, she has outlined a policy not different from the views of Vice President-elect JD Vance, who has also emerged as a critic of American support for Ukraine.
If confirmed, Ms. Gabbard would not be the only voice on intelligence matters. John Ratcliffe, Mr. Trump’s final director of national intelligence in his first administration, has been chosen to be C.I.A. director. Ms. Gabbard would, however, still be influential in determining what intelligence Mr. Trump and other top officials see in the daily intelligence briefing, and would be in a position to highlight intelligence that reinforces Mr. Trump’s views.
For Ms. Gabbard, the invitation to join Mr. Trump’s administration represents a stunning political evolution. Only four years ago, she sought the Democratic presidential nomination, albeit as an anti-establishment candidate, and endorsed President Biden when he won the nod.
Since then, however, she has broken with the Democratic Party and drifted toward a conspiratorial view of the world and American power in it.
“This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean US/NATO forces right on Russia’s border,” she wrote on Twitter, now known as X, when the war began in February 2022.
Ms. Gabbard sought the nomination in the Democratic presidential primary just four years ago, albeit as an anti-establishment candidate, and endorsed President Biden when he won the nod.Credit...Elizabeth Frantz for The New York Times
A month later, she posted a video on the platform saying the United States was operating 25 to 30 biological research labs in Ukraine. She accused the Biden administration of covering them up and said they could release dangerous pathogens, though she stopped short of claiming the labs were making biological weapons, as Russia has falsely claimed.
Ms. Gabbard’s remarks were quickly called out by Republican members of Congress, including Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois and Senator Mitt Romney of Utah.
Her willingness to criticize the Biden administration has made her, like other prominent critics of the government, a favorite source of anti-American content on Russia’s state television networks.
Vladimir Solovyov, a popular talk show host, called her “our girlfriend” in a segment in 2022. The program included an interview Ms. Gabbard did with Tucker Carlson in which she claimed that Mr. Biden’s goal was to end Mr. Putin’s control of the Russian government, according to Julia Davis, the creator of the Russian Media Monitor, which tracks Kremlin propaganda.
In fact, Ms. Gabbard honed her pro-Russia views on Mr. Carlson’s show on Fox News before his program was canceled. She became a regular guest and occasionally filled in as host when Mr. Carlson was away.
Clips from her appearances on Mr. Carlson’s show that repeated Kremlin talking points were quickly picked up by Russian state media.
In some cases, she echoed story lines that Russia’s propagandists created, which the Russians then recycled on their own media as evidence that the conspiracy theories they had manufactured were true. For the Kremlin, it was a virtuous cycle.
Ms. Gabbard honed her pro-Russia views on Fox News, including on Tucker Carlson’s show.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
The frequency of her citations on Russian state television prompted sharp criticism and attention inside the U.S. government. Hillary Clinton, the former first lady, secretary of state and Democratic presidential nominee in 2016, once called her a “Russian asset.”
Ms. Gabbard, 43, has an eclectic political background, often occupying a space where the left and right overlap — such as in their opposition to foreign military intervention and a more sympathetic view of Russia.
She began in state politics in Hawaii at 21 and emerged as a talented, charismatic young Democrat, though one who often espoused the culture-war views of today’s right, taking early positions against abortion and same-sex marriage, for instance.
At the time, she was closely aligned with her father, Mike Gabbard, a leader of Hawaii’s movement against same-sex marriage. At one point, she inveighed against “homosexual activists” who were, she said, forcing “their values down the throats of the children in our schools.” (The statement came during her mother’s run for the state school board in 2000.) By the time she ran for Congress in 2012, she had expressed support for abortion rights and for same-sex marriage, later stating in a video apology that her earlier views on gay issues had been shaped by her father.
In 2003, she joined the Hawaii Army National Guard and served in Iraq in 2004 and 2005 as a specialist with a medical unit of the 29th Infantry Brigade Combat Team. After attending officer training in Alabama, she served a second tour in the region as a military police officer in Kuwait. She left the guard in 2020 to join the Army Reserve, where she continues to serve with the rank of lieutenant colonel.
Ms. Gabbard joined the Hawaii National Guard in 2003 and served in Iraq in 2004 and 2005.Credit...Petty Officer 2nd Class Jeff Troutman/U.S. Navy, via Associated Press
In interviews, she has cited her military service as a factor in her political views about the exercise of American military might.
In 2013, she opposed President Barack Obama’s ultimately aborted plans for airstrikes against Syria. She later criticized the administration for failing to properly call out “Islamist extremists.” She also questioned evidence showing that Syrian forces used chemical weapons in an attack that killed dozens.
In 2016 she opposed the favorite for the Democrats’ presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton, becoming an ardent supporter of her chief Democratic rival that year, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Her willingness to challenge the Democratic establishment earned her an invitation to visit Mr. Trump at Trump Tower during the 2016 presidential transition period.
It also made her an appealing figure for conservative news bookers, particularly those for Mr. Carlson’s Fox News show. On one show, the two agreed that U.S. support for Syrian rebels seeking to topple Mr. Assad was aiding terrorists — an interview that came as Russia bombed U.S.-backed rebels in the name of combating terrorism.
Ms. Gabbard ultimately became a paid Fox News contributor, as Mr. Carlson was emerging as an ardently anti-interventionist, and increasingly pro-Putin, figure in the MAGA movement.
“I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our intelligence community,” Mr. Trump said in a statement nominating Ms. Gabbard for director of national intelligence.Credit...Jim Vondruska for The New York Times
As Russian forces gathered before their invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ms. Gabbard joined Mr. Carlson to speak out against Mr. Biden’s move to impose new sanctions against Russia, even as she said she opposed Russia’s military operation. “The reality is that these sanctions don’t work whether they were put in before or now or later,” she said. “What we do know is that they will increase suffering and hardship for the American people, and this is the whole problem with the Biden administration.”
Her appearances were regularly picked up by Russia’s state media, including the international network RT, which promoted her critiques and lauded her with headlines such as “Tulsi Gabbard dares to challenge Washington’s war machine” and “Biden wants regime change in Russia — ex-congresswoman.”
By this year, Ms. Gabbard’s politics converged with Mr. Trump’s. In October, she joined the Republican Party and hit the campaign trail on his behalf, extolling him as a peacemaker.
“A vote for Donald Trump is a vote for a man who wants to end wars, not start them,” she said at Mr. Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden shortly before Election Day, “and who has demonstrated already that he has the courage and strength to stand up and fight for peace.”
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Ukraine Fired U.S.-Made Missiles Into Russia for First Time, Officials Say
The attack came just two days after President Biden gave Ukraine permission to use long-range U.S.-made weapons to strike targets inside Russia.
President Biden on Sunday gave Ukraine authorization to use the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, to strike inside Russia.Credit...John Hamilton/White Sands Missile Range, via Associated Press
Ukraine’s military used long-range American-made missiles on Tuesday to strike into Russia for the first time, according to senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials, just two days after President Biden gave permission to do so in what amounted to a major shift of American policy.
The pre-dawn attack struck an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of southwestern Russia, Ukrainian officials said. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Kyiv used six long-range ballistic missiles known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS. The senior American and Ukrainian officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations, confirmed that ATACMS were used.
The strike represented a demonstration of force for Ukraine as it tries to show Western allies that providing more powerful and sophisticated weapons will pay off — by degrading Russia’s forces and bolstering Ukraine’s prospects in the war.
Officials in Kyiv had pleaded for months for permission to use ATACMS to strike military targets deeper inside Russia before the Biden administration relented and gave its assent on Sunday. The authorization came just months before the return to office of President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has said he will seek a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
His election has cast uncertainty over whether the U.S. will maintain the robust military support it has provided Ukraine under Mr. Biden, or whether Mr. Trump might take a different approach.
The addition of up to 10,000 North Korean troops to Moscow’s war effort this fall appeared to be what persuaded the Biden administration to shift its stance on ATACMS. The United States and its allies viewed their arrival as an escalation.
Andrii Kovalenko, a member of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said that Tuesday’s strike in Bryansk hit warehouses housing “artillery ammunition, including North Korean ammunition for their systems.”
Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed that five of the ATACMS missiles were shot down and another was damaged, saying that falling fragments caused a fire at a military facility but that there were no casualties.
The attack came on the same day President Vladimir V. Putin lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a long-planned move whose timing appeared aimed at showing the Kremlin could respond aggressively to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American long-range missiles.
President Vladimir V. Putin in Kazan, Russia, last month.Credit...Pool photo by Alexander Nemenov
The Kremlin has throughout the war used the threat of deploying its nuclear arsenal to try to deter the West from providing more robust military support to Ukraine. On Monday, the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said President Biden’s decision about the U.S.-provided long-range missiles “escalates tensions to a qualitatively new level.”
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Putin Lowers Russia’s Threshold for Using Nuclear Arms
A decree signed by the Russian leader, though long-planned, came days after President Biden authorized the use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia.
President Vladimir V. Putin in Sochi, Russia, this month. The decree signed by the Russian leader appeared designed to show that the Kremlin could respond aggressively if Ukraine strikes Russian territory with American long-range missiles. Credit...Pool photo by Maxim Shipenkov
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President Vladimir V. Putin on Tuesday lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a long-planned move whose timing appeared designed to show the Kremlin could respond aggressively to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American long-range missiles.
The decree signed by Mr. Putin implemented a revised version of Russia’s nuclear doctrine that Mr. Putin described in televised remarks in September. But the timing was clearly meant to send a message, coming just two days after the news that President Biden had authorized the use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia.
Asked whether Russia could respond with nuclear weapons to such strikes, Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, repeated the new doctrine’s language that Russia “reserves the right” to use such weapons to respond to a conventional-weapons attack that creates a “critical threat” to its “sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Ukraine’s military said it hit ammunition warehouses in the Bryansk region of Russia on Tuesday, and Russia’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement that Kyiv used six of the U.S. missiles in the attack. The claims could not be independently verified.
If confirmed, the strike would be first time that Ukraine had used the weapon, known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to strike inside Russia.
The new doctrine asserts that Russia could use nuclear arms in the event of an attack by a nation backed by a nuclear power. The doctrine’s publication on Tuesday appeared to be the latest suggestion from the Kremlin that Russia could use nuclear weapons to respond to attacks by Ukraine carried out with American support, and that the response could be directed against American facilities as well as Ukraine itself.
“Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any nonnuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack,” the document says.
Mr. Peskov, speaking at his daily conference call with reporters, pointed to this section of the revised doctrine, saying, “this is also a very important paragraph.”
Russia’s previous doctrine said its nuclear deterrence was directed mainly against countries and alliances that have nuclear weapons. And it had a higher threshold for the kind of conventional attack that could trigger nuclear use, specifying that such an attack must threaten “the very existence of the state.”
“Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies,” Mr. Peskov said.
Still, for all the strident rhetoric, the war in Ukraine largely appears to be going Mr. Putin’s way — and Western officials have previously said that they would be most worried about Moscow’s using nuclear weapons if the Russian military is on its back foot.
On the battlefield, Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, while Kyiv struggles with recruitment and morale. And in geopolitics, Mr. Putin has also been making gains: his phone call last week with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany broke two years of diplomatic isolation by the biggest Western countries, while the election of Donald J. Trump as incoming president of the United States has raised hopes in Russia of a Ukraine peace deal on the Kremlin’s terms.
From the first day of his invasion in February 2022, Mr. Putin has been trying to use the threat of Russia’s enormous nuclear arsenal to deter Western military aid to Ukraine. He has had only limited success, with the United States leading a coalition that has dispatched tens of billions of dollars’ worth of modern tanks, artillery systems and missiles.
But Mr. Putin has sought to draw a new red line at the possibility of Ukraine’s using Western missiles to attack deep inside Russian territory. To the frustration of Ukrainian officials, President Biden long refused, given what American officials said was the risk of a violent response by Mr. Putin and the limited impact that the use of those missiles could have on the battlefield.
But Mr. Biden changed course recently after Russia’s surprise decision to bring North Korean troops into the fight, American officials said.
In September, Mr. Putin warned that if the United States and its allies permitted Ukraine to fire missiles deeper into Russia, they would put his country “at war” with NATO.
In the lead-up to Mr. Biden’s decision, some American officials said they feared that Ukraine’s use of the missiles across the border could prompt Mr. Putin to retaliate with force against the United States and its coalition partners. Other American officials said they thought those fears were overblown.
In response to Mr. Biden’s recent decision, Russian officials have warned in some of their strongest statements yet about the risk of nuclear war.
On Tuesday, Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the defense committee in Russia’s lower house of Parliament, said that Mr. Biden “will slam the lid of his own coffin and drag many, many more people with him.”
Dmitri A. Medvedev, the outspoken former Russian president and vice chairman of Mr. Putin’s security council, said in a social media post that under the new nuclear doctrine, the use of missiles provided by NATO countries in attacks by Ukraine against Russia “can now be qualified as an attack on Russia” by NATO nations.
Mr. Medvedev, whose threats often go beyond the Kremlin’s official pronouncements, added: “In this case, the right arises to launch a retaliatory strike with weapons of mass destruction against Kyiv and the main NATO facilities, wherever they are.”
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
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