Inside Jake Sullivan’s private House call on Ukraine
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The Pentagon seeks a new way to arm the Ukrainians should a larger war with Russia break out. Certain allies — namely Germany — still need “coaxing” when it comes to a sanctions response. The U.S. might provide Ukraine $1 billion in a sovereign loan guarantee. And as of this morning, the U.S. had 22 total personnel at the evacuated embassy in Kyiv.
That’s what national security adviser
JAKE SULLIVAN
told House members in a private call today. The top aide to President
JOE BIDEN
spent the day updating lawmakers from the House and Senate about the Ukraine-Russia standoff and the West’s response to it.
His 9:15 am unclassified call with top House members, which featured Speaker of the House
NANCY PELOSI
and the Democratic chairs of national security committees, among others, was mostly a rehash of the administration’s public talking points — except for four of his comments, per multiple people familiar with the call.
The first was that Sullivan said Secretary of Defense
LLOYD AUSTIN
is looking to provide Ukrainians with military aid via ground delivery — not through air delivery — to assist the resistance after a Russian invasion. Asked for more details by lawmakers, Sullivan answered he’d be willing to discuss the matter in a classified setting instead of over an unsecure phone line.
The second came after House Foreign Relations Chair
GREGORY MEEKS
(D-N.Y.) asked if certain allies, specifically Germany and Poland, still needed some persuading when it came to sanctions. “They need constant coaxing — especially Germany,” Sullivan replied, though he insisted the administration expects a strong multilateral response. Washington and Berlin haven’t been aligned in their public messaging on how to punish Russia, especially regarding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, though officials in both capitals maintain they will act in unison.
The third is Sullivan said the administration is mulling offering Ukraine a $1 billion in sovereign loan guarantees to calm any economic concerns.
And fourth, Sullivan stated the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv currently has a total of 22 personnel, down from around 180 in December. Hours later, Secretary of State
ANTONY BLINKEN
announced that the embassy was closing and temorarily relocating to Lviv, where a small number of staffers will perform emergency consular work.
The National Security Council declined to comment, while a State Department spokesperson said “As part of our operational security protocols … we are not providing details about embassy staffing.”
Still, Sullivan’s behind-the-scenes remarks provide a clearer look into the administration’s planning and thinking two days before U.S. intelligence suggests Russia will begin its invasion. Put together, the administration is weighing a new set of new military and economic options while a multilateral response to Russia’s aggression may still not be 100 percent firmed up.
The question is, as always, will it be enough?
“If we're going to prevent a war, Putin has to get something out of this. He has to have some sort of diplomatic face-saving mechanism to back down, House Armed Services Chair
ADAM SMITH
(D-Wash.), who was on the call, told MSNBC hours afterward.
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Цитата:
Vladimir Putin suggests dialogue is still possible on Ukraine crisis
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Vladimir Putin has suggested it is still not too late for dialogue over Ukraine, as the world continues to be left guessing whether the Russian president is on the brink of invading his neighbour, or whether his military buildup is a negotiating ploy.
In a meeting in the Kremlin, the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told Putin he believed there was still room for dialogue on Russian requests for a new security deal with the west, which have been made as Russia amassed 140,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders in recent weeks.
“It seems to me that our possibilities are far from being exhausted. They certainly should not continue indefinitely. But at this stage I would suggest that they continue and be intensified,” Lavrov told Putin.
Putin, who has taken to holding meetings with extreme social distancing owing to a fear of contracting Covid, gave his assent from the other end of an extremely long table.
The footage released from the meeting appeared carefully choreographed to send a message about Kremlin thinking.
“We warn against endless conversations on issues that need to be resolved today. Still, as the foreign minister, I should say that there is always a chance,” said Lavrov.
At the same time, a senior Russian diplomat told the Guardian that Russia would be within its rights to “counterattack” against Ukraine if it felt Kyiv was threatening the population of eastern Ukraine.
“We will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked to do that,” said Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, in an interview in Brussels.
“If the Ukrainians launch an attack against Russia, you shouldn’t be surprised if we counterattack. Or, if they start blatantly killing Russian citizens anywhere – Donbas or wherever,” he said.
Donbas is the region of eastern Ukraine where Russia has armed and funded an insurgency since 2014, and where the Kremlin has handed out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports. In January, US officials briefed journalists on intelligence they claimed showed that Russia was preparing a “false flag” incident that could be used as a pretext for an intervention.
In this context, Chizhov’s words about a Russian response to a Ukrainian attack will sound ominous to western officials, especially as there is no sign Ukraine currently has any desire to attack its much larger and more powerful neighbour.
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Russia has massed an estimated 145,000 troops along various stretches of its border with Ukraine, in Belarus where joint military drills are taking place, and in Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014.
US officials said over the weekend that Russia had accelerated plans for an invasion and could launch a full-scale land and air assault as soon as Wednesday.
On Monday, the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, announced that the last few US diplomats in the Kyiv embassy would move west to Lviv, “due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces”.
On Saturday, a senior state department official told reporters that a handful of American diplomats would stay in the capital “to be able to continue working closely with the Ukrainian government and to be able to ensure we’ve got the best possible information for our senior leaders and the president about what’s happening broadly in society”.
The change of mind two days later suggests that US security assessments have darkened still further.
“We don’t take this sort of action without the most thorough deliberation,” the state department spokesperson, Ned Price, said. “We are basing our assessment on what we are seeing on the ground with our own eyes, which is a continued unprovoked Russian buildup on the border with Ukraine, and no accompanying evidence of the de-escalation. It is a distinct possibility, perhaps more real than ever before, that Russia may decide to proceed with military action.”
On Monday night, the state department advised US citizens to “depart immediately” from Belarus and the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, “citing the unusual and concerning Russian military activity” along their borders with Ukraine.
The Pentagon spokesperson, John Kirby, said that Putin “continues to advance his military readiness”. Russian forces around Ukraine, Kirby said, were doing “the things you’d expect one to do if one was planning on a major military action.”
Western diplomatic efforts to avert an invasion continued on Monday, with the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, in Kyiv.
“The sovereignty and territorial independence of Ukraine are non-negotiable,” said Scholz, speaking alongside Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, after a bilateral meeting.
On Tuesday, Scholz will meet Putin in Moscow, a week after France’s Emmanuel Macron also visited both capital cities in an attempt to seek paths for de-escalation. In five hours of one-on-one talks over dinner in the Kremlin, Putin is reported to have spent a long time lecturing Macron on historical Russian grievances.
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Putin has claimed that Ukraine joining Nato would inevitably lead to war between Russia and the alliance.
On Monday morning, Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain, Vadym Prystaiko, said Kyiv may consider giving up its ambition of Nato membership if it would help de-escalate the situation. The foreign ministry quickly said Prystaiko’s words had been taken out of context and other officials also played down the remarks.
While most western officials believe Ukraine has little chance of joining Nato any time soon, they are reluctant to publicly rule out the possibility.
“The Russian government is turning something into a big political issue that isn’t really currently on the agenda,” Scholz said in Kyiv.
After the US warnings of imminent military action, diplomats from numerous countries, including the US, Canada and Australia have evacuated from Kyiv and are running small emergency diplomatic missions from the western city of Lviv.
Many European countries, where there is some scepticism about the US warnings, have decided to keep a diplomatic presence in Kyiv. The British ambassador has also remained in Kyiv, along with a core team.
“It’s a big mistake that some embassies moved to western Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said on Monday. “It’s their decision, but ‘western Ukraine’ doesn’t exist. It’s united Ukraine. If something happens, God forbid, it will happen everywhere.”
In a video released on Monday evening, Zelenskiy said he was declaring Wednesday, the day American officials briefed could be the start of military action, as a day of national unity.
Most scheduled flights to Ukraine continued to operate on Monday after the government announced a $592m (£437m) fund to help keep Ukraine’s airspace open, as some insurers refused to cover aircraft after the US warnings. The Dutch airline KLM has stopped all flights to Ukraine, while Lufthansa has said it is considering a suspension.
The low-cost airline SkyUp, which had to divert a plane to Moldova on Sunday after the company that owned the plane banned it from entering Ukrainian airspace, said it had resumed ticket sales after coming to an agreement with the Ukrainian government.
“Negotiations with insurers have been difficult and our foreign partners continue to regularly assess their own risks and monitor the situation,” the airline said in a statement.
Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian officials have repeatedly called for calm, saying they see the threat on the border but do not believe Russia will launch a full-scale invasion and that the apocalyptic US messaging is only serving to create panic and chaos economic chaos.
“Keep calm. Don’t panic. This is not 2014, Ukraine has become stronger and better organised,” said the interior minister, Denys Monastyrsky, in a video address on Monday.
Russia plans multiple attacks on Ukraine border and capture of Kiev, say western intelligence officials
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Multiple offensives are being planned by Russia along Ukraine’s borders, with Kiev the main target if Vladimir Putin decides to attack, according to western officials.
More than 60 per cent of Russia’s ground combat power, half of its air force, and a significant proportion of its special forces will take part in a huge invasion, with a Kremlin-backed regime installed if the capital is occupied, they claim.
The alarming assessment comes amid last-ditch diplomatic efforts to prevent conflict, including a visit to Moscow on Tuesday by German chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia was finalising its response to US proposals for easing tensions, indicating some room for talks.
But Ukraine repeated its commitment to joining Nato – a key sticking-point – and president Volodymyr Zelensky declared that Wednesday, which US officials warned could be the date of a Russian invasion, would be a “day of unity” in his country.
“We will hoist national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the world our unity,” he said.
Foreign secretary Liz Truss, who chaired a Cobra meeting on Monday afternoon, repeated Britain’s warning that Russia could launch an invasion “almost immediately” and reiterated calls for Britons to leave Ukraine now.
Boris Johnson and US president Joe Biden agreed in a phone call on Monday night that there remains a “crucial window for diplomacy and for Russia to step back from its threats towards Ukraine”.
A Downing Street spokesperson added: “The leaders emphasised that any further incursion into Ukraine would result in a protracted crisis for Russia, with far-reaching damage for both Russia and the world.”
Analysis of forces movements show that 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) out of a total of 170 in Russia’s armed forces are in place, with another 14 on their way, according to intelligence officials.
The alarming scenario is the latest to be presented alongside western claims that military action is now imminent – but it does not stipulate that attacks could begin on Wednesday.
The build-up, structure and distribution of Russian forces could not be for anything other than an attack on Ukraine, the officials insist, and the scale and disposition of personnel and weapons indicates that action would be far bigger than small incursions that may have been planned in the recent past.
Tanks, artillery, warplanes and ballistic missiles have been placed at forward positions at the border. At the same time, Russian naval vessels have begun to move into the Black Sea off the coast of Crimea.
Kremlin plans include seizing Kiev and carrying out “regime change” in Ukraine, according to the analysis. The proximity of the capital to the border – just 105 miles – would allow the Russians to use their doctrine of speed and capabilities to achieve a shock factor.
Attempts to take the city would, the officials acknowledged, lead to fierce close-quarter fighting and loss of lives. But the brutal actions of Russian forces in Syria suggest Mr Putin would not be deterred by the prospect of large scale civilian casualties.
As well as an offensive against the capital there would be sustained focus, according to the narrative, on the Ukrainian forces in the east of the country facing the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk republics. The units based there are among the best-equipped and most experienced in the Ukrainian army, and would pose a threat to the Russian forces unless they are neutralised.
The grim intelligence assessments have led to criticism in Ukraine where the economy has taken a major hit from talk of an invasion.
However, the officials insisted that they had full confidence in their information and that disseminating it was a way of letting the Kremlin know that any plots, such as a “false flag” operation to instigate hostilities, cannot be kept hidden.
Цитата:
The race to Kiev: Plans presented by Kremlin military chiefs show how 130,000 Russian forces will bid to topple Ukraine government in 'multi-axis' invasion from Belarus and Crimea before swarming in from the east
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Russian troops will set off on a 'race to Kiev' to topple the Ukrainian government, according to plans presented by Kremlin military chiefs.
Tens of thousands of Putin's soldiers will push south into Ukraine to target the capital and install a pro-Russian regime, Western officials fear.
There will also be a 'multi-axis' invasion by Russian forces. Troops will enter the country from Belarus and Crimea before converging in eastern Ukraine.
Their mission will be to align themselves to prevent Ukrainian forces in the east of the country heading back to defend Kiev.
With speed of movement being critical to Russia's strategy, lighter vehicles and weapons systems have apparently been selected for the ground offensive.
More Russian troops, possibly an extra 20,000, are being added to the invasion force which is currently 130,000-strong.
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Russian troops will set off on a 'race to Kiev' to topple the Ukrainian government, according to plans presented by Kremlin military chiefs. Tens of thousands of Putin's soldiers will push south into Ukraine to target the capital and install a pro-Russian regime, Western officials fear. There will also be a 'multi-axis' invasion by Russian forces. Troops will enter the country from Belarus and Crimea before converging in eastern Ukraine
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A source said: 'The build-up of soldiers and equipment is unprecedented and very alarming. This is a force built for the purpose of an invasion. It is estimated a further 14 Russian brigades are heading for the Ukrainian border.
'The logistics are also in place, the medical back-up as well as air and naval assets. We have seen the build-up of Russian vessels in the Atlantic, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Holidays have also been cancelled for many Russian units.
'In total you are looking at 60 per cent of Russia's overall combat power being engaged in this operation.
'The land threat has also been made more potent by the disposition of their attacking forces. Russia has basically traded mass for speed knowing they must get to Kiev as quickly as possible.
'They must also rapidly get other units to eastern Ukraine to form a barrier stopping Ukrainian units pushing back west to save the capital city.'
According to sources, detailed invasion plans will be presented imminently to President Putin, who has still yet to make a final decision on the invasion.
Putin is expected to meet his defence minister Sergey Shoygu and the head of Russia's secret services Alexander Bortnikov before committing to war.
That's because the UK, the US and the EU will launch a blitzkrieg on Russia's banking system and financial services industry if Russia invades.
Kiev is lightly defended because most Ukrainian troops have been stationed in the east fighting Russian separatists since 2014.
The Ukrainian capital is only 150 miles via the E95 highway from Belarus's southern border – a journey Russian tanks could make in six hours.
A source added: 'Once they get to Kiev the Russians are reluctant to send their troops into situations where they could be fighting street by street. Such a close quarter battle would likely lead to heavy casualties, both military and civilian. The Russians don't want to get bogged down.
'They're hoping for a 'bloodless coup', to oust the democratically elected government and put their people in without much of a struggle.
'They are probably underestimating the willingness of the Ukrainians to fight for their country, they are not just going to roll over. So it could get very bloody.'
While the state-controlled media claims the crisis is Nato's fault, there is little or no appetite within Russia for conflict with their neighbour.
'Russians see Ukrainians as being like themselves, many Russians also have Ukrainian relatives. There is little opposition to a possible war because of the Kremlin's control of the media.
'This could change quickly if a lot of people are killed,' a source said. 'An actual invasion would also prove expensive for Russia financially and politically as it would suffer heavy economic sanctions and become a pariah state.'
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Националисты готовят агрессивные действия в Киеве в ближайшее время - нардеп Волошин
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"Ни один здравомыслящий человек не верит в спонтанное российское вторжение. У Москвы мало поводов дальше терпеть проводимый режимом Зеленского курс, но у неё хватает иных, невоенных инструментов. Между тем Газпром в последнее время только нарастил транзит через отечественную ГТС. А вот во что я верю и чему имею подтверждения из самых разных источников, так это во всплеск агрессии, который на фоне раздуваемой Западом военной истерии планируют радикальные националистические группы в столице и других городах. Они уже несколько месяцев готовятся, составляют списки, выделяют транспорт, определяют адреса для быстрых и ни каким законом не сковываемых действий", - написал Волошин.
Волошин считает, что под удар в первую очередь попадут люди, которые выступали против националистов.
"Естественно, люди, открыто и последовательно изобличавшие рост неонацистских группировок, критиковавшие националистический крен в разных сферах политики, выступавшие за компромисс с Россией - цель номер один. И здесь у них выбор широкий с представителями правящей команды включительно", - считает Волошин.
Такие действия, по мнению нардепа, могут спровоцировать вмешательство внешних сил.
"Концепцию "гуманитарных интервенций" придумали на Западе. Но применить ее может любая великая держава. И грех тогда будет внешним силам не использовать такой повод", - пишет Волошин.
Он также дает совет украинским властям в этой ситуации: "наряду с готовностью серьезно и динамично двигаться по пути реализации Минских соглашений для избежания катастрофы для всей нашей страны действующая власть обязана предотвратить малейшие проявления внутреннего террора и мародёрства. Кстати, во многом из-за этого, а не от страха перед российскими войсками (трудно себе представить, чтоб в любом случае Москва не гарантировала бы их безопасность) западные страны и эвакуируют посольства из Киева".
Нардеп также добавил, что помимо политических мотивов у националистов могут быть и чисто "коммерческий" расчет - погромы, грабежи и мародерство.
"Как сказал мне один знакомый, имеющий контакты в этой среде: "Те, кто не добежал до Межигорья в 2014, хотят взять реванш сейчас». Недавние кадры из охваченной погромами Алма-Аты должны дать представление, о чем идёт речь", - написал Волошин.
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Цитата:
Индия призвала своих граждан покинуть Украину
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Цитата:
Часть грузовых судов может отменить свои рейсы в украинские порты
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Как сообщил совладелец фирмы TIS, управляющей частью терминалов, Андрей Ставницер, в настоящее время возможен перенос или полная отмена части судозаходов в одесские порты. Как он отметил, предлагаемые Россией коридоры, которые должны быть безопасными, на самом деле слишком мелки для крупных судов.
Россия в рамках проводимых маневров сосредоточила в Черном море более 30 кораблей ВМФ, в том числе более десятка десантных кораблей. Она перекрыла часть моря, оставив для судоходства только обозначенные коридоры. Действия России также затрудняют доступ к украинским портам Азовского моря.
Тем временем от полетов над Украиной отказались две авиакомпании. Это связано с ухудшением ситуации с безопасностью и возможной агрессией со стороны России. Однако пассажиропоток в Украине осуществляется пока без существенных изменений.
О приостановке полетов над Украиной сообщили в последние дни нидерландская авиакомпания KLM и норвежская Norvegian. Согласно пресс-релизу, с 14 февраля международные страховщики приостанавливают действие страховок в небе над Украиной.
В воскресенье, 13 февраля, украинское правительство выделило почти 17 миллиардов гривен, почти 500 миллионов евро, для гарантирования безопасности полетов воздушных суден в воздушном пространстве Украины. 14 февраля, как сообщили в пресс-службы украинских аэропортов Киева, все рейсы осуществляются без изменений, только нидерландская авиакомпания KLM отменила рейсы, запланированные на 13 и 17 февраля.
Цитата:
Videos show Russian units and missiles advancing towards Ukraine border
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Цитата:
The Lesson Stalin Could Teach Putin About Invading a Neighbor
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Ukraine-Russia news – live: Europe on ‘brink of war’, says Truss, with invasion ‘imminent and highly likely’
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A Russian invasion of Ukraine is “highly likely” and could take place imminently, Liz Truss said, warning Europe may be “on the brink of war”.
The UK foreign secretary urged Vladimir Putin to “step back” and said a war would have “severe consequences” for Russia, Ukraine and the security of Europe.
Western officials said the Russian president was planning multiple attacks on Ukraine’s borders as well as a capture of Kiev.
At least 60 per cent of Russia’s ground troops, half of its air force, and a significant proportion of its special forces will take part in an invasion on a massive scale, with a Kremlin-backed regime installed if successful in occupying the capital city, they claimed.
The US State Department has announced that it is relocating its embassy from Kiev to Lviv, in western Ukraine.
Boris Johnson and Joe Biden warned Russia faces a “protracted crisis” if it invades Ukraine, after a call between the two leaders on Monday night.
Key Russia-Germany gas pipeline at risk, warns top EU diplomat
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More from the top EU diplomat's interview with us earlier.
Josep Borrell made a timely intervention as the German chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Moscow to meet Vladimir Putin. He says a key gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany - Nordstream 2 - could not get up and running if conflict were to erupt.
"If there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, Nordstream 2 would not become operational," he said.
Scholz has faced criticism for his response to the tensions. He isn't expected to scrap Nord Stream 2, despite US President Joe Biden saying the scheme would be halted if Russia invades.
On Monday, after meeting Ukraine's president in Kyiv, Scholz said there were differences between Germany and Ukraine on the issue. But he added that no-one should doubt the readiness of Germany to punish Russia if it attacked Ukraine.
Russia has finished building the controversial pipeline but German regulators are yet to approve its use.
Цитата:
PGNiG считает необоснованными требования Газпрома о повышении цены на газ
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«Польская нефтяная и газовая компания» (PGNiG) считает необоснованными требования Газпрома о повышении цены на газ, поставляемый в Польшу. В ответ на вызов в арбитражный суд польская компания подала заявление с просьбой об отклонении требований российского концерна. Кроме того, она потребовала снижения контрактной цены.
В середине января 2022 года Газпром подал иск на «Польскую нефтяную и газовую компанию» в Международный арбитражный суд Стокгольма. Российская компания потребовала изменить условия цены на газ, поставляемый по Ямальскому контракту.
Газпром ожидает повышения контрактной цены задним числом с 2017 года и с 2020 года, исходя из запросов на пересмотр контрактной цены с декабря 2017 года и с ноября 2020 года.
Генеральный директор «Польской нефтяной и газовой компании» Павел Маевский считает эти претензии неприемлемыми.
«Газпром шантажирует Европу поставками газа, что приводит к заоблачно высоким ценам на сырье. Таким образом он хочет вынудить Европейский союз запустить "Северный поток-2" при нарушении законов ЕС», - сказал Павел Маевский.
«Польская нефтяная и газовая компания» дважды, в 2011 и 2015 годах, пользовался правом арбитража, предусмотренным Ямальским контрактом. В результате разбирательства, начатого в 2015 году, в марте 2020 года Арбитражный суд изменил ценовую формулу контракта, приняв решение в пользу польской компании.
Цитата:
Заявка Газпрома на транзит через Украину после роста в понедельник вернулась к минимальному уровню
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Загрузка украинского газотранспортного коридора во вторник упала после некоторого роста в понедельник. При этом она в два раза ниже уровня бронирования по долгосрочному контракту (109 млн куб. м в сутки). Газопровод "Ямал-Европа" по-прежнему не используется.
Заявка "Газпрома" на транзит газа через Украину 15 февраля составляет 51 млн куб. м после 62,5 млн куб. м в понедельник и 51 млн куб. м на выходных, свидетельствуют данные "Оператора газотранспортной системы Украины".
Из экспортных газопроводов "Газпром" приоритетно загружает "Северный поток" (170 млн куб. м в сутки), затем идет загрузка украинского газотранспортного коридора. Газопроводу "Ямал-Европа" в этом отношении остается замыкающая или балансирующая роль. На 14 февраля "Газпром" по-прежнему не бронировал его мощности. Прямой поток по магистрали прекратился 21 декабря.
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Putin could turn off Europe's gas tap. This is the solution
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(CNN)As Russian troops remain camped across several of Ukraine's frontiers, Europe and the United States are scrambling to prevent an incursion, with a flurry of diplomatic efforts and by bolstering their own troops in nearby NATO countries.
Speculation over Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions have ramped up from mere threats to actual war, but officials and pundits in Europe are jittery about another threat as well: Moscow could reduce -- or even stop -- the flow of fossil gas that the continent so heavily relies on.
There has been much talk of what Russia is trying to achieve geopolitically by fostering this reliance -- to break up NATO, to split the European Union or alienate the US from its Western allies -- but these other concerns are also pressing.
Soaring prices in a power crunch are driving millions of Europeans into energy poverty and the continent's unfettered use of fossil gas is fueling the climate crisis. The solution should be self-evident -- end our reliance on expensive, dirty, and overwhelmingly imported gas. This will require standing up to the powerful gas industry, and right now, far too few politicians seem willing to take this vital step.
This is by no means the first time Europe's heavy reliance on Russian gas has been problematic. It was the same story during the last major flare-up with Ukraine in 2014, and Europe's response -- to simply find gas elsewhere -- didn't work then. It isn't working now either.
In 2013, Russian imports accounted for around 27% of the European Union's gas use. Instead of reducing reliance on Russia, nine years later, Europe remains more dependent on Russian gas than ever, with 38% of the EU's supply now being piped from the country.
EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has been holding urgent meetings with Azerbaijan and Qatar to boost the bloc's gas supplies. Likewise, US President Joe Biden, a self-proclaimed climate champion, has been trying to ride to Europe's rescue, and push his own ever-expanding plans for American liquefied natural gas exports.
On a practical level, it's unlikely the US and its friends would be able to replace Russian gas in Europe quickly and effectively. Recent research by the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel, concluded that in the event of a rupture in Russian gas, the EU would run short and have to start cutting gas use altogether.
So, if Europe can't do without Russia for gas, the question must be asked: Why not do without the gas?
Even if the US could bring a cavalry to Europe, more gas isn't a long-term solution. The flag on the pipeline or ship is irrelevant -- it's Europe's dependency on the fuel, regardless of where it's from, that makes it so vulnerable to the vagaries of the global gas market.
Europe's addiction to gas, and indeed the world's, will have a deep impact on the future of our planet. The idea peddled by many in the fossil fuel industry that gas can help tackle the climate crisis by replacing coal is false. The International Energy Agency has said that the world should stop adding more capacity for gas if it wants to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
In the EU, gas is now responsible for more carbon emissions than coal. According to the European Commission's own analysis, the continent must virtually eliminate fossil gas by 2050 to help keep global warming to 1.5C, although Global Witness believes it must be gone by 2035. Globally, between 2016 and 2019, fossil gas has been responsible for half of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions, according to data from the Global Carbon Project.
Methane, which can leak from almost every step in the gas supply chain, has more than 80 times the global warming power than carbon-dioxide in the short term. Methane has driven more than a quarter of all global warming to date. Not to mention the health risks attached to gas exposure both for communities near infrastructure and even in homes. A recent study by Stanford University showed, stoves used for cooking often leak methane even when turned off.
It's not just followers of geopolitical tensions or those in the climate movement that should be concerned with this gas addiction. A sharp rise in gas prices has forced households across Europe into the impossible choice between heating and eating. In the UK, 22 million have been told their energy bills will rise by about £700 ($950) a year, which will hit the poorest the hardest. Recent, but as yet unpublished, figures crunched by the Global Witness data team found that consumer gas prices in the Netherlands and Estonia over the past year have increased by a staggering 62% and 122%, respectively.
As European households suffer, it's a very different picture for major fossil fuel firms. Shell recently announced its most profitable fourth quarter in almost a decade, posting almost $20 billion in profit for 2021. ExxonMobil and Chevron recorded a combined $38.6 billion in profits last year. With other oil and gas majors set to post similarly strong years in the coming days -- including Russia's own Gazprom, which saw record-breaking Q3 profits -- it's a pointer as to just why politicians continue to back gas, despite all its associated woes.
Even with the tide turning against fossil fuels, many European lawmakers seem to continue to buy into the argument that the gas industry is vital for jobs and growth in their countries, even though the renovation and renewables sectors are already significant contributors to the economy with huge potential.
This is an industry that is directly benefiting from rising gas prices while ordinary citizens fall further into energy poverty and the climate crisis intensifies. It's therefore no surprise that gas companies are pushing to keep gas locked in, using the two-pronged approach of lobbying and greenwashing. While announcing his company's highest profits in eight years, the CEO of BP, Bernard Looney, called for even more investment into gas. And it's clearly having the desired effect.
In December, the European Commission published its proposals to reform Europe's gas market, in what could have been an opportunity to move towards the phaseout of gas. Worryingly, it chose to lock gas in for years to come, in line with calls from the gas industry.
The Commission's proposals rest on the impossible assumption that fossil gas infrastructure -- like pipelines -- can eventually be used with substitutes by nascent technologies like hydrogen. In Europe's existing networks, however, this would do little to reduce gas use, given most hydrogen is produced using fossil gas. There is little being done to challenge the power and influence of the fossil fuel companies at the heart of the gas market.
Another way is possible, but it requires a monumental shift. The huge political and financial support afforded to the fossil fuel industry needs to be redirected to give a much-needed boost for genuine solutions.
Modeling carried out by the Climate Action Network Europe and the European Environmental Bureau shows that the use of fossil gas could virtually be phased out by 2035. That would require accelerating deep renovations of Europe's buildings, ramping up the deployment of renewable electricity technologies and the electrification of heating and transportation -- all measures that are entirely realistic.
This includes accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, like wind and solar, so that we can replace gas with green electricity. Schemes to renovate large-scale buildings or to insulate homes and replace gas boilers with green heating solutions, like heat pumps and geothermal, would go a long way.
But, outrageously, the majority of the EU's 27 member states still give more subsidies to fossil fuels than renewables.
Europe's deep gas dependency is impacting its citizens, the future of the planet and limiting its ability to shield from geopolitical threats. Already, rich big polluters in the gas industry -- whether in Russia or elsewhere -- are the only ones who stand to benefit from the status quo. European leaders should be putting in place plans to get Europe off gas as quickly as possible. This shouldn't be a courageous act. It's just common sense.
Here’s how much money athletes at the Beijing Olympics earn for winning medals
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The 2022 Winter Olympics is well underway in Beijing, and more than 200 medals have already been awarded to athletes from around the world.
Finishing on the podium is a matter of national pride. For some winners, it also means taking home a cash bonus and opening doors to rare multimillion-dollar sponsorship opportunities.
The International Olympic Committee does not pay prize money to medalists, but many countries offer monetary rewards to their athletes for the number of medals they win at either the Summer Olympics or Winter Olympics.
CNBC compiled the chart below, sourcing information from various national Olympic committees, sports associations and personal finance site Money Under 30.
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The data showed the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee rewards its athletes $37,500 for every gold medal won, $22,500 for silver and $15,000 for bronze. Most of that prize money is not taxable unless athletes report gross income that exceeds $1 million.
American athletes also receive other forms of support such as health insurance, access to top-tier medical facilities and college tuition assistance.
The U.S. sent more than 200 athletes to compete in Beijing. Team USA has so far bagged 7 gold medals, 6 silver and 3 bronze.
At the 2021 summer games, American athletes took home 39 gold, 41 silver and 33 bronze — racking up the highest medal tally by any country in Tokyo.
How much do other countries pay?
Some countries and territories provide much higher monetary incentives for their athletes to finish on the podium. Experts say some of it is an attempt to develop national sporting cultures.
Singapore, for example, rewards its gold medalists nearly 20 times more than the U.S.
Players who clinch their first individual gold medal for the city-state stand to receive 1 million Singapore dollars ($737,000). The prize money is taxable and the winning recipients are required to return a portion of it to their national sports associations for future training and development.
Kazakhstan pays their athletes about $250,000 for a gold medal, Italy gives about $213,000, the Philippines around $200,000 while Malaysia also offers hefty rewards for its athletes. Hong Kong, which competes separately from China at the Olympics, last year offered 5 million Hong Kong dollars ($641,000) for gold winners.
When India’s javelin thrower Neeraj Chopra secured the country’s first gold in track-and-field in Tokyo last year, several politicians and corporate brands reportedly announced millions of rupees in monetary reward for the athlete.
Apart from medal bonuses, winners in these countries are also offered other compensations. For example when Filipino weightlifter Hidilyn Diaz won the country’s first Olympic gold last year, she was reportedly offered two homes and free flights for life.
To begin with, clinching a spot on the Olympics team is not an easy feat and athletes dedicate most of their time to training for the games — that makes holding down full-time employment difficult.
In some sports, equipment, coaching and access to training venues can also rack up an athlete’s expenses.
While sportspeople from bigger, more competitive countries receive stipends or training grants from their national sports associations, others hold down a variety of jobs or turn to crowdsourcing to finance their Olympic dreams.
Top performers also collect prize money by winning national and international tournaments.
How hard is it to get sponsored?
Only a handful of top athletes land multimillion dollar endorsements or sponsorship deals, either before competing at the Olympics or after achieving success in the Games.
Snowboarder Shaun White, for example, received his first board sponsorship when he was 7, NBC Sports reported. After he won his first Olympic gold medal in 2006, snowboard-manufacturing company Burton signed him on to a 10-year contract and White pocketed an estimated $10 million a year in sponsorships, according to NBC.
Last year, U.S. swimmer Katie Ledecky and gymnast Simone Biles received millions in endorsements ahead of the summer games, Forbes reported. Meanwhile, tennis star Naomi Osaka reportedly made $55 million from endorsements in 12 months, and was named the highest-paid female athlete ever, according to reports.
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Цитата:
15 февр. 2022 г.
Реклама Агрессии.
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С сожалением и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
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