Enter ‘Oreshnik’
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On Nov. 21, a new kind of Russian missile carrying six warheads struck Dnipro, Ukraine. Senior officials said it caused limited damage. But the first combat use of such a design — which Russian President Vladimir Putin called unstoppable — has drawn scrutiny from Western military experts.
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Working backwards from the impacts in Dnipro: the six warheads fell to earth after they were dropped at separate targets by a component of the missile called the Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) bus.
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Just before releasing the warheads, the MIRV bus orients itself with onboard guidance systems so it can direct each of them toward a specific objective.
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The MIRV bus coasts through space toward the target area. It is at this stage the missile is most vulnerable to midcourse interception.
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The MIRV bus separates from the upper stage, and after brief acceleration, will fly on a ballistic trajectory in space toward its objective.
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The missile’s first stage separates, dropping the dead weight of burned-out engines and empty fuel storage.
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The missile blasts off, propelled by its first-stage engines, accelerating quickly as it begins to roll and orient itself toward its programmed trajectory.
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The missile fired by Russia at Ukraine last week, hailed by Putin as a new kind of experimental hypersonic weapon, was actually an application of old technology used for many years in intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), six military experts told Reuters.
An examination by two of these experts of the debris recovered from the new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), known in Russian as the Oreshnik, or hazel tree, showed how it dropped multiple payloads across the target area, a characteristic of ICBMs.
After the missile strike, Putin said the Oreshnik was hypersonic and could not be intercepted. But Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California, noted that all ballistic missiles of that range are hypersonic, and that missile interceptors such as Israel's Arrow 3 and the U.S. SM-3 Block 2A were designed to destroy them.
After examining images of the wreckage, Lewis said the two largest pieces of debris were part of its warhead bus, which sits atop the booster and eventually drops the warheads from space onto their targets.
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Small gas thrusters allow the bus to maneuver above the atmosphere for precise targeting, Lewis said, noting that the "spider shaped" piece of debris appeared to include those. The other large section of wreckage contained guidance, fuel tanks and other electronics, he said. The bus allows for MIRVs, each of which carries a warhead and can hit a separate mark.
None of the technology in the Russian IRBM that hit Ukraine is novel but getting a close, hands-on look could yield interesting insight into the latest Russian missile designs, he said.
"This is a new capability, but this is not a new capability that represents a dramatic change in the way that conventional weapons are developed," he said. "It's a series of old technologies that have been put together in a new way."
Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment for this story.
The missile, which Putin said struck a Ukrainian military facility, was derived from the RS-26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which was tested five times but never entered service, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Lewis said the new design had most likely removed a stage of the booster from the RS-26, reducing its range. He noted that using the Oreshnik with conventional warheads was an expensive means "to deliver not that much destruction".
The United States considered a program using ICBMs without nuclear warheads called Conventional Prompt Strike, but abandoned it because "it was stupid", said William Alberque, a visiting fellow at the Henry L. Stimson Center. A major problem with putting conventional warheads on ICBMs is that it is easy for adversaries to mistakenly think they are under nuclear attack - confusion that could accidentally lead to a nuclear conflagration.
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A U.S. official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that Russia had notified Washington shortly before the Nov. 21 strike. A second official said the U.S. had briefed Kyiv and allies to prepare for the possible use of such a weapon.
Tim Wright of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that showed Russia was aware of that risk and wanted to mitigate it. Senior Ukrainian officials told Reuters this week that the missile used to attack Dnipro carried no explosives and caused limited damage.
In an address on state television after the missile was launched, Putin said it was a direct response to strikes on Russia by Ukrainian forces with U.S. and British missiles. He warned the war could be escalating toward a global conflict, and that Russia could strike at military installations of Western countries supporting Ukraine.
A former Kremlin advisor, Sergei Markov, told Reuters the use of the weapon was symbolic, sending a message from Putin to the West: “back off”.
Lewis noted that the sheer speed of reentry was enough to cause damage even if the warhead were non-explosive material such as metal. The warheads descended on Dnipro at a steep angle, he noted, which implied the missile had been launched on a "lofted" trajectory: fired to an unusually high apogee, or maximum altitude, to reduce range.
North Korea often uses this method in its missile tests to avoid geopolitically sensitive landing spots.
Kapustin Yar, where the missile was launched, is only about 800km from the impact point, so a lofted attack is plausible, said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Lewis noted that its reported flight time of 15 minutes would have taken it about 1,500 km on a normal trajectory.
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The accuracy seen in videos of the strike aligns with what would be needed for a nuclear weapon but not a conventional one, Alberque said.
"If Russia is working on a MIRV with a conventional CEP, we’ve never seen it," he said, referring to circular error probable (CEP), a measure of weapon accuracy. A nuclear missile typically has a CEP of 50 to 200 metres, meaning half of all rounds aimed at the target will land within that distance of the aimpoint.
In videos of the attack, each warhead appeared to drop smaller payloads that could be seen striking the ground. Wright said that if the missile used such submunitions, accuracy was less of a problem because: "it would distribute them over a wide area. It makes it useful for attacking large facilities".
Lewis cautioned that given the expense, using this type of ballistic missile to hit Ukraine might be more a psychological tactic than a military one. "If were inherently terrifying, (Putin) would just use it. But that's not quite enough," Lewis said. "He had to use it and then do a press conference and then do another press conference and say: 'Hey, this thing is really scary, you should be scared.'"
Важно понимать, что реальная задача «Reuter» не объяснить, а успокоить.
Цитата:
Цитата:
Putin says Russia could hit 'decision-making centres' in Kyiv with new missile
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"Of course, we will respond to the ongoing strikes on Russian territory with long-range Western-made missiles, as has already been said, including by possibly continuing to test the Oreshnik in combat conditions, as was done on November 21," Putin told leaders of a security alliance of ex-Soviet countries at a summit in Kazakhstan.
"At present, the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff are selecting targets to hit on Ukrainian territory. These could be military facilities, defence and industrial enterprises, or decision-making centres in Kyiv," he said.
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Цитата:
Russia hits Ukrainian energy facilities, Kyiv sees 'despicable escalation'
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Later in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said he was speaking to Western leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, to forge a response to "Russia's attempt to make the situation more unbearable and
drag out the war
"(выделено а.п.).
"Now is the time to strengthen our positions - the position of Ukraine and our partners," he said.
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Н.И.О. президента Украины, запретивший себе законом переговоры с действующим президентом России, обвиняет его в затягивания войны.
Как говорится «эту бы энергию, да в мирных целях».
Цитата:
Цитата:
Estonia: Dowódcy ostrzegają, że farmy wiatrowe osłabiają zdolności obronne kraju i NATO
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Rozwój farm wiatrowych na lądzie i morzu ogranicza zdolności obronne Estonii oraz NATO, a instalacje stanowią zagrożenie dla bezpieczeństwa – powiedział szef Agencji Wywiadu Wojskowego płk Ants Kiviselg. Podobnego zdania jest dowódca marynarki wojennej kmdr Ivo Vark.
"Farmy wiatrowe zakłócają wywiad radiowy, utrudniają odbiór sygnałów z terytorium wroga i skracają czas wczesnego ostrzegania, co ma kluczowe znaczenie w przypadku ataku" - przyznał Kiviselg w opublikowanym w czwartek wywiadzie dla radia ERR. Zaznaczył również, że wpływa to negatywnie na zdolności obronne NATO, zwłaszcza w zakresie wykrywania obcych obiektów.
Na początku tego miesiąca - przypomniał estoński nadawca publiczny - przedstawiciele administracji sił zbrojnych oraz resortu klimatu zapewnili, że podejmują działania mające złagodzić potencjalny wpływ turbin wiatrowych na funkcjonowanie wojska. W ramach tych działań planowane jest zakupienie nowych systemów radarowych, które będą szczególnie wykorzystywane na północno-zachodnim wybrzeżu Estonii oraz w rejonie największych wysp - Saremy i Hiumy. W krajowych planach przewiduje się także rozbudowę parków wiatrowych do 2033 r.
Kiviselg tłumaczy, że skrócony czas wczesnego ostrzegania oznacza, iż w przypadku drona, który przypadkowo mógłby przekroczyć granicę Estonii, wykrycie go staje się "trudniejsze". "W gorszym scenariuszu, jeśli zostaną wystrzelone np. rosyjskie rakiety Iskander lub pociski z samolotów, brak zdolności do wykrycia ich w początkowej fazie lub na wczesnym etapie manewrów może skutkować opóźnieniem reakcji. Mówimy tutaj o minutach lub nawet kilkudziesięciominutowym opóźnieniu" - przyznał wojskowy.
Według marynarki wojennej, zakłócenia w detekcji sygnałów, spowodowane odbiciami od ruchomych i nieruchomych łopat turbin, utrudniają lokalizowanie obiektów na morzu. Wpływa to nie tylko na misje jednostek bojowych, ale także na operacje ratunkowe.
"Wszystkie farmy wiatrowe na estońskich wodach, zarówno terytorialnych, jak i w specjalnej strefie ekonomicznej na Bałtyku, zakłócają działania marynarki w różnym stopniu" - powiedział kmdr Ivo Vark, zaznaczając, że turbiny, rozmieszczone na obszarach rozciągających się na kilkadziesiąt kilometrów, tworzą swoistą "barierę".
Farmy wiatrowe na morzu - dodał - "ograniczają także skuteczność naszych pocisków przeciwokrętowych, które obecnie są obsługiwane z lądu". Dowódca estońskiej marynarki wojennej przyznał jednocześnie, że "w pełni" podziela pogląd szwedzkich sił zbrojnych, których interwencja w plany energetyki wiatrowej, w związku z zagrożeniem ze strony Rosji, wpłynęła ostatnio na odrzucenie przez rząd w Sztokholmie kilkunastu projektów farm wiatrowych w pasie wybrzeża.
"Mając podobne środowisko operacyjne, doktrynę wojny na morzu i nawet wspólnego przeciwnika, zgadzam się, że morskie farmy wiatrowe stanowią zagrożenie dla bezpieczeństwa" - podsumował.
А поляки ещё мечтают.
Цитата:
Orlen Neptun na całego wchodzi do offshore'owej gry. Szykuje się do historycznego wydarzenia
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O przygotowywaniu przez Orlen Neptun projektu morskiej farmy wiatrowej do pierwszej polskiej aukcji offshore'owej, o potencjale wszystkich nowych lokalizacji offshore'owych Grupy Orlen, zakładanym sposobie realizacji nowych projektów i ewentualnej ekspansji zagranicznej rozmawiamy z Januszem Bilem, prezesem zarządu Orlen Neptun.
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Примечательно, что обе статьи из одного издания.
Т.е. одни уже поняли, что ветряки мешают локационному обзору во время ведения боевых действий и служат прикрытием для ракет и дронов потенциального противника, а другие еще ни о чём не догадываются и строят планы.
P.S.
А.п. напоминает Уважаемым коллегам, что начиная с 25.11.2024, по независящим от него техническим причинам, все публикации будут возможны только с 9.00 утра, до 23.59 вечера текущих суток.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Пресс-бюро Службы внешней разведки — о планах Запада оккупировать и поделить Украину:
✔️В условиях очевидного отсутствия перспектив нанесения России стратегического поражения на поле боя в НАТО все больше склоняются к необходимости замораживания украинского конфликта. Запад рассматривает реализацию такого сценария в качестве возможности восстановить боеспособность ВСУ и обстоятельно подготовить Киев к попытке реванша.
✔️Для решения указанных задач от Запада потребуется фактическая оккупация Украины. Естественно, это будет делаться под видом развертывания в стране «миротворческого контингента».
✔️Определены территории, которые предполагается распределить между оккупантами: Черноморское побережье — Румыния; западные области Украины — Польша; центр и восток страны — Германия; северные области, в том числе столичный регион, — Великобритания. Всего планируется ввести на Украину 100 тыс. так называемых миротворцев.
✔️По поступающей информации, немецкие военные уже обратились к опыту установления немецко-фашистскими захватчиками в годы Великой Отечественной войны оккупационного режима на Украине. При этом в бундесвере пришли к выводу, что осуществление полицейских функций будет невозможно без зондеркоманд из украинских националистов. Им придумают новое название, но по сути это будут те же бандеровские каратели.
✔️Натовцы уже разворачивают на Украине учебно-тренировочные центры, через которые предполагается протащить не менее миллиона мобилизованных украинцев.
Вчерашнюю
без «VPN» не открыть, поэтому публикую обзор из профильного СМИ.
Цитата:
Уклонисты - «загнанные в угол крысы». Текст резонансной статьи «The Telegraph», в которой сотрудник ТЦК откровенно рассказывает о своей работе.
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«Офицеров военкоматов изображают жестокими похитителями, готовыми на крайние меры ради выполнения месячного плана набора в армию.
Каждое утро Артём (имя изменено) выходит на работу в качестве одного из самых известных и вызывающих страх офицеров военкоматов (ТЦК) в своем родном городе на востоке Украины, пострадавшем от войны.
После короткого инструктажа его команда решает, куда направиться: одни отправляются в кафе, рестораны, даже ночные клубы – туда, где могут находиться молодые мужчины призывного возраста. Затем начинается тяжелая работа.
«Иногда это похоже на то, как будто имеешь дело с загнанной в угол крысой», – рассказал Артём, описывая, как он доставляет своих “целей” в микроавтобусы, чтобы затем отправить их в военкомат.
«Они продолжают сопротивляться даже в машине. Те, кто сопротивляется, всегда угрожают отомстить нашим парням или их семьям», – добавил он.
Артём, который попросил не раскрывать его настоящее имя, работает в Территориальном центре комплектования и социальной поддержки (ТЦК) – о чем он не рассказывает ни своей семье, ни друзьям.
Работа ТЦК привлекла внимание общественности из-за вирусных видео, на которых мужчины в камуфляже останавливают прохожих на улицах и насильно забирают их в армию.
Экстренная мобилизация превратилась в игру в «кошки-мышки»: информация о перемещениях сотрудников ТЦК публикуется в онлайн-чатах, чтобы предупредить уклонистов.
Молодые мужчины в этих чатах обсуждают, как сократить число выходов из дома и избегать метро или оживленных районов города, чтобы не попасться.
Такие сотрудники ТЦК, как Артём, изображаются жестокими и беспощадными похитителями, готовыми на всё ради выполнения месячного плана набора.
28-летний Артём, муж и отец, согласился дать интервью на условиях анонимности и с запретом на упоминание его города, опасаясь последствий.
Многие украинцы уже состоят в военной базе данных, но другие уклоняются от этой обязанности почти три года, опасаясь, что с фронта они могут вернуться либо искалеченными, либо в гробу, как многие их товарищи».
«Артём рассказал, что каждое утро сотрудники ТЦК собираются на ежедневный инструктаж, а затем отправляются в разные районы города.
Часть команды дежурит на военных блокпостах при въездах и выездах из города, другие патрулируют улицы и останавливают всех мужчин, которых встречают.
«Некоторые группы передвигаются на машинах в постоянном поиске, – пояснил он. – У нас есть зоны, где наши группы работают почти постоянно – в основном транспортные узлы, но иногда мы покидаем эти места, чтобы люди не привыкали их избегать».
Офицеры часто дежурят у входов на рынки, в парках, на пляжах, у кафе и предприятий, где работают мужчины, добавил Артём.
Он подтвердил, что у него есть план по количеству задержанных, и отметил: «Из-за нехватки людей мы почти не выбираем, кого останавливать – сейчас практически каждый подлежит проверке».
Раньше, по его словам, он не задерживал мужчин, которые выглядели физически слабыми, но теперь тактика изменилась. «Почти всегда адреналин берёт своё. Даже те, у кого с документами всё в порядке, показывают страх», – сказал он.
Те, у кого документы в порядке, обычно имеют серьезные травмы, препятствующие службе, являются студентами или волонтёрами, либо работают с международными журналистами. Однако иногда документы оказываются поддельными, за которые мужчины платят тысячи долларов. Команда Артёма отвечает за их проверку.
После того как мужчин забирают в микроавтобусы, их отправляют на медицинское обследование. Те, кто проходит его, направляются в учебные центры, где готовятся к отправке на передовую.
«Раньше мы позволяли людям пойти домой и собрать вещи, но в последнее время они не возвращаются добровольно. Они прячутся. Иногда нам приходится конфисковывать их телефоны», – сказал он.
Некоторые мужчины не имеют возможности сообщить родным или друзьям, где они находятся. The Telegraph получила непроверенные сообщения в Instagram, в которых люди ищут своих близких, опасаясь, что их забрали в ТЦК.
В Киеве Telegram-канал «Погода Киев» с более чем 104 тысячами подписчиков публикует данные о местонахождении сотрудников ТЦК, включая фото и видео мужчин в камуфляже, задерживающих прохожих.
Подписчики предупреждают, где в Киеве лучше не ходить. Красные восклицательные знаки указывают на зоны риска, а солнца – на безопасные места.
Один из подписчиков канала, 35-летний Василий, сказал: «Мужчины призывного возраста боятся спокойно ходить по улицам. В метро вы увидите молодёжь до 25 лет, людей в форме или пожилых, но не мужчин от 25 до 40, потому что все боятся».
Артём работает в ТЦК больше полутора лет. Он сказал, что выбрал эту работу, потому что ему нравится «быть частью системы».
«Сначала я испытывал жалость и сострадание к задерживаемым, но теперь это просто работа. У меня есть аргумент: либо они, либо я», – добавил он».
О «люксовом шмотье» и курсе национальной валюты.
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У короля Людовика XIV был, пожалуй, самый знаменитый в истории Франции министр финансов, Жан-Батист Кольбер. Без него король-Солнце точно бы не справился.
Кольбер превратил экономику Франции в ведущую экономику мира, ввел моду на все французское. Что он делал? Проводил политику активного торгового баланса, меркантилизма, направленную на рост французского экспорта. Кольбер установил строгий таможенный контроль, не позволяя ввозить товары, которые можно было производить во Франции. Были открыты фабрики по производству полотна, кружева, шелка, стекла, ковров, украшений и других предметов роскоши, которые ранее ввозились из-за рубежа, прежде всего из Италии. Вскоре Франция стала производить товары непревзойденного качества, лучшие из которых демонстрировались в Версале. А сам Версаль стал своеобразной выставкой достижений французского народного хозяйства. В результате в производстве люксовых товаров французы заняли лидирующие позиции в мире.
Вскоре в стране возникла проблема нехватки рабочих рук, и пришлось принимать меры, которые бы способствовали росту численности населения. Семьи, где было более десяти детей, освобождались от уплаты налогов; был повышен возрастной ценз, когда человек мог посвятить себя Богу (Кольбер считал, что слишком много молодых людей связывают себя религиозными обетами). Была запрещена эмиграция рабочих из страны, а для иностранцев, особенно протестантов, которые подвергались гонениям у себя на родине, создавались все условия для приезда во Францию.
Но Кольберу приходилось трудно. Великие вельможи отказывались инвестировать его компании для торговли с заморскими странами, рабочие отказывались расстаться с причитающимися им 60 выходными в год (вдобавок к воскресным дням) и устраивали забастовки. Сам Кольбер работал по 15 часов в сутки семь дней в неделю. Его собственноручные записи могли бы составить несколько сотен томов.
Труд Кольбера принес ощутимые плоды: с 1661 по 1671 гг. государственный годовой доход вырос вдвое. В 1683 г. он в четыре раза превосходил доход Англии и почти в десять раз доход Венецианской республики.
Другое дело, что Людовик XIV непрерывно воевал, а главным врагом Кольбера была война. Даже в мирное время под ружьем находилось 150 тыс. человек. Этих людей Кольбер мог использовать для благоденствия и процветания Франции. Он ненавидел войну, но не из гуманных соображений, а по экономическим причинам.
Ненависть Кольбера к войне по силе страсти была сравнима разве что с его ненавистью к военному министру маркизу де Лувуа. Однако именно этот министр открыл новую страницу в истории французской армии. На протяжении почти трех десятилетий она была самой крупной военной силой в Европе. Ее содержание обходилось дорого, но Людовик XIV, как в будущем Наполеон, всегда имел под рукой отмобилизованные войска, готовые немедленно приступить к боевым действиям.
Каковы были результаты войн? Людовик XIV решил главную задачу: почти на сто лет отбил у соседей желание попытать счастья во Франции.Однако это было достигнуто ценой крайнего истощения французского государства. Вторая внешнеполитическая задача — установление французской гегемонии в Европе — оказалась невыполнимой.
Поэтому наш президент, в отличие от Людовика XIV, игнорирует призывы доморощенных ястребов вести тотальную войну и ввести мобилизацию экономики.
При таком раскладе никаких кольберов не хватит.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Песков — о планах Запада ввести на Украину 100 тысяч миротворцев: Размещение миротворцев возможно только с согласия сторон того или иного конфликта. Это раз.
А во-вторых, у нас есть абсолютно четкие параметры, необходимые для урегулирования. И, конечно, для выхода на траекторию урегулирования нужно решить проблему первопричин этого конфликта. И здесь все гораздо глубже, чем направление миссии миротворцев. Ну то есть, это первопричина. А еще это, собственно, тезисы, которые изложил президент, выступая в июле перед руководящим составом МИД.
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Boris Johnson calls for British ‘peacekeeper’ troops in Ukraine after Russia ceasefire
Former prime minister Boris Johnson has said responsibility for keeping any deal intact should fall to a group of European peace-keeping forces
Boris Johnson, pictured here with president Volodymyr Zelensky, has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine (AFP via Getty Images)
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British troops should be sent to guard Ukraine’s border under any future ceasefire with Russia, Boris Johnson has said.
The former prime minister has said responsibility for keeping any deal intact should fall to a group of European peace-keeping forces.
Ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, which is expected to spark talks to end the conflict, Mr Johnson said British troops should be sent to Ukraine to maintain a ceasefire.
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Speaking to The Telegraph’s Ukraine: The Latest podcast, he said: “I don’t think we should be sending in combat troops to take on the Russians.
“But I think as part of the solution, as part of the end state, you’re going to want to have multinational European peace-keeping forces monitoring the border [and] helping the Ukrainians.
“I cannot see that such a European operation could possibly happen without the British.”
The former PM said Western countries should ensure Russia cannot simply re-arm and launch another attack on Ukraine down the line by making clear what security guarantees are on offer.
Foreign secretary David Lammy has said Ukraine is on an “irreversible pathway” to Nato membership once its war with Russia ends. Many countries in the military alliance are wary of Ukraine’s calls to be immediately invited to join.
Mr Johnson’s proposal would likely see Nato’s Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack against all members, triggered if Western troops acting as part of a UN peacekeeping force were attacked.
In the podcast, Mr Johnson said: “We need to be spelling out what kind of security guarantees we think are appropriate.
“The only thing that really works is a Nato Article 5 guarantee that has kept the peace in Europe for 80 years.
“It’s the reason the Baltic states are in Nato. It’s the reason that the Poles, Hungarians, Czechs, Finns and the Swedes are now in Nato.”
Ultimately the former PM said the only long-term solution is to give Ukraine Nato membership, after three years of “abominable cruelty and carnage”.
His intervention comes after Vladimir Putin praised the incoming US president as “intelligent” and said he will “find a solution” to the conflict.
And on Thursday the Russian president threatened to strike Kyiv with Moscow’s new ballistic missile Oreshnik, which he claimed is comparable to a nuclear weapon in terms of its destructive power.
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Johnson: UK would boost Nato troops if Ukraine invaded
01.2022.25
Britain is prepared to deploy troops to protect Nato allies in Europe if Russia invades Ukraine, Boris Johnson has said in a Commons …
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Цитата:
Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine’s forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia
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KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Desertion is starving the Ukrainian army of desperately needed manpower and crippling its battle plans at a crucial time in its war with Russia, which could put Kyiv at a clear disadvantage in future ceasefire talks.
Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, tired and bereft, have walked away from combat and front-line positions to slide into anonymity, according to soldiers, lawyers and Ukrainian officials. Entire units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.
Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory. Others clash with commanders and refuse to carry out orders, sometimes in the middle of firefights.
“This problem is critical,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Kyiv-based military analyst. “This is the third year of war, and this problem will only grow.”
Although Moscow has also been dealing with desertions, Ukrainians going AWOL have laid bare deeply rooted problems bedeviling their military and how Kyiv is managing the war, from the flawed mobilization drive to the overstretching and hollowing out of front-line units. It comes as the U.S. urges Ukraine to draft more troops, and allow for the conscription of those as young as 18.
The Associated Press spoke to two deserters, three lawyers, and a dozen Ukrainian officials and military commanders. Officials and commanders spoke on condition of anonymity to divulge classified information, while one deserter did so because he feared prosecution.
“It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people,” said an officer with the 72nd Brigade, who noted that desertion was one of the main reasons Ukraine lost the town of Vuhledar in October.
The troops who walk away
More than 100,000 soldiers have been charged under Ukraine’s desertion laws since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the country’s General Prosecutor’s Office.
Nearly half have gone AWOL in the last year alone, after Kyiv launched an aggressive and controversial mobilization drive that government officials and military commanders concede has largely failed.
It’s a staggeringly high number by any measure, as there were an estimated 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers engaged in combat before the mobilization drive began. And the actual number of deserters may be much higher. One lawmaker with knowledge of military matters estimated it could be as high as 200,000.
Many deserters don’t return after being granted medical leave. Bone-tired by the constancy of war, they are psychologically and emotionally scarred. They feel guilt about being unable to summon the will to fight, anger over how the war effort is being led, and frustration that it seems unwinnable.
“Being quiet about a huge problem only harms our country,” said Serhii Hnezdilov, one of few soldiers to speak publicly about his choice to desert. He was charged shortly after the AP interviewed him in September.
Another deserter said he initially left his infantry unit with permission because he needed surgery. By the time his leave was up, he couldn’t bring himself to return.
He still has nightmares about the comrades he saw get killed.
“The best way to explain it is imagining you are sitting under incoming fire and from their (Russian) side, it’s 50 shells coming toward you, while from our side, it’s just one. Then you see how your friends are getting torn to pieces, and you realize that any second, it can happen to you,” he said.
“Meanwhile guys (Ukrainian soldiers) 10 kilometers (6 miles) away order you on the radio: ‘Go on, brace yourselves. Everything will be fine,’” he said.
Hnezdilov also left to seek medical help. Before undergoing surgery, he announced he was deserting. He said after five years of military service, he saw no hope of ever being demobilized, despite earlier promises by the country’s leadership.
“If there’s no end term (to military service), it turns into a prison – it becomes psychologically hard to find reasons to defend this country,” Hnezdilov said.
A growing problem for Kyiv
Desertion has turned battle plans into sand that slips through military commanders’ fingertips.
The AP learned of cases in which defensive lines were severely compromised because entire units defied orders and abandoned their positions.
“Because of a lack of political will and poor management of troops, especially in the infantry, we certainly are not moving in a direction to properly defend the territories that we control now,” Hnezdilov said.
Ukraine’s military recorded a deficit of 4,000 troops on the front in September owing largely to deaths, injuries and desertions, according to a lawmaker. Most deserters were among recent recruits.
The head of one brigade’s legal service who is in charge of processing desertion cases and forwarding them to law enforcement said he’s had many of them.
“The main thing is that they leave combat positions during hostilities and their comrades die because of it. We had several situations when units fled, small or large. They exposed their flanks, and the enemy came to these flanks and killed their brothers in arms, because those who stood on the positions did not know that there was no one else around,” the official said.
That is how Vuhledar, a hilltop town that Ukraine defended for two years, was lost in a matter of weeks in October, said the 72nd Brigade officer, who was among the very last to withdraw.
The 72nd was already stretched thin in the weeks before Vuhledar fell. Only one line battalion and two rifle battalions held the town near the end, and military leaders even began pulling units from them to support the flanks, the officer said. There should have been 120 men in each of the battalion’s companies, but some companies’ ranks dropped to only 10 due to deaths, injuries and desertions, he said. About 20% of the soldiers missing from those companies had gone AWOL.
“The percentage has grown exponentially every month,” he added.
Reinforcements were sent once Russia wised up to Ukraine’s weakened position and attacked. But then the reinforcements also left, the officer said. Because of this, when one of the 72nd Brigade battalions withdrew, its members were gunned down because they didn’t know no one was covering them, he said.
Still, the officer harbors no ill will toward deserters.
“At this stage, I do not condemn any of the soldiers from my battalion and others. … Because everyone is just really tired,” he said.
Charging deserters
Prosecutors and the military would rather not press charges against AWOL soldiers and do so only if they fail to persuade them to return, according to three military officers and a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Investigative Bureau. Some deserters return, only to leave again.
Ukraine’s General Staff said soldiers are given psychological support, but it didn’t respond to emailed questions about the toll desertions are having on the battlefield.
Once soldiers are charged, defending them is tricky, said two lawyers who take such cases. They focus on their clients’ psychological state when they left.
“People cannot psychologically cope with the situation they are in, and they are not provided with psychological help,” said attorney Tetyana Ivanova.
Soldiers acquitted of desertion due to psychological reasons set a dangerous precedent because “then almost everyone is justified (to leave), because there are almost no healthy people left (in the infantry),” she said.
Soldiers considering deserting have sought her advice. Several were being sent to fight near Vuhledar.
“They would not have taken the territory, they would not have conquered anything, but no one would have returned,” she said.
Цитата:
Верховный Суд постановил, что повестку нельзя обжаловать в суде, потому что она является лишь средством оповещения о необходимости выполнить воинскую обязанность в соответствии с законом, пишет "Судебно-юридическая газета".
Решение принято составом коллегии судей Кассационного административного суда 23 октября 2024 года по делу №380 2838 24.
Истец с 2022 года пытался оспорить в судах повестку, заявляя, что на ней стояла подделанная подпись врио главы ТЦК, отсутствовали дата, цель вызова и распоряжение на оповещение и вручение повестки.
Мужчина утверждал, что повестка подписывается исключительно начальником ТЦК и должна быть вручена лично или уполномоченными лицами, а также, что в его случае должен быть составлен акт об отказе от получения повестки, чего не было сделано. За отказ от повестки на него возбудили уголовное дело.
Верховный Суд подчеркнул, что сами по себе действия ТЦК по изготовлению и вручению повестки не свидетельствуют о факте нарушения субъектом властных полномочий прав, свобод или интересов истца. А доводы о нарушении ТЦК процедуры вручения повестки и преждевременного/необоснованного обвинения в совершении уголовного правонарушения могут быть предметом проверки судом в рамках соответствующего уголовного производства.
The Heirs of a Despised Draft Dodger Want His Wright Brothers Plane Back
The Franklin Institute has said a wealthy scion, long vilified for refusing to serve during World War I, gave them a treasured Wright-built plane. His family is challenging that account.
Grover C. Bergdoll flying the plane he bought from the Wright brothers. It is now on exhibit at the Franklin Institute in Philadelphia.Credit...The Bergdoll Family Collection, via The Historical Society of Pennsylvania
The Franklin Institute, a Philadelphia museum dedicated to the study of science, has long said one of its most impressive holdings — a plane built in 1911 by the Wright brothers — was a gift from a man named Grover C. Bergdoll.
The Wright Model B, a two-seater that Bergdoll bought from the brothers, remains one of the best preserved icons of early aviation. The museum’s website details the plane’s rich history and how it was built with inventive flaps and cables.
But it says nothing about the man the museum says was the plane’s donor, a wealthy bon vivant who was utterly despised after dodging the draft for World War I. The scion of a Philadelphia brewing fortune, Bergdoll drove cars and flew planes before the war with an abandon that earned him the nickname “Playboy of the Eastern Seaboard.”
When Bergdoll escaped from his military escort in 1920, he became the subject of a nationwide hunt. Credit...U.S. government poster
For nearly a century, that plane has been exhibited at the Franklin Institute. But more recently, the circumstances of how it got there have become a point of contention.
The Franklin Institute acquired the plane in 1933, when Bergdoll was living as a fugitive in Germany, to which he had fled after his conviction for desertion. By this time, all of his possessions had been declared the property of the U.S. government. The museum has said in several settings that Bergdoll transferred title by letter while he hid from U.S. authorities overseas.
But recently the museum acknowledged, to the author of a book on Bergdoll and Bergdoll’s family, that it has no letter. Instead, a museum official said, Bergdoll had simply told a museum official verbally that he wanted to give the plane to the museum.
“From your own knowledge of Mr. Bergdoll and his background,” a museum curator, Susannah Carroll, wrote to the author, Timothy W. Lake, “you should understand why neither he nor The Institute would desire to have anything in writing documenting the oral gift. Bergdoll was still a fugitive and his assets had been and continued to be subject to government seizure.”
The Franklin Institute says that the plane was clearly a gift, as evidenced by the fact that it was openly on display and neither Bergdoll nor his family sought to claim it while he was alive.Credit...The Franklin Institute
In recent months, though, Bergdoll’s family has challenged the museum’s account. In an interview, one of Bergdoll’s daughters, Katharina, described the institute’s explanation as inconsistent and said it does not address the fact that the government had placed all her father’s assets under seizure more than a decade earlier.
“Getting a verbal agreement — how was it possible when my father was a fugitive at the time in Germany?” she said. “You could not have reached him. That was the first impossibility. The second: It was technically in the government’s possession at the time. He could not have legally transferred it.”
Family members have now asked the museum to consider returning the plane, or to agree to some other form of compensation. Katharina Bergdoll said she would also like the museum to “own up to the facts of how it was obtained.”
In a statement, the museum did not delve into the specifics of its acquisition but it reiterated that the plane on public display for decades had been a gift; it also questioned the family’s motivation.
“At no time between 1935 and Mr. Bergdoll’s death in 1966 did he, his mother, Emma, or his wife, Berta, ever claim any right to the airplane, dispute the validity of the gift, or request its return,” the statement said.
Lesley Gamble, Bergdoll’s granddaughter, left, and her aunt, Katharina Bergdoll, who have raised questions about how the museum acquired the plane.Credit...Hailey Sadler for The New York Times
The institute also forwarded a news article from 1934 that announced the plane had been received as a gift from Bergdoll. “At no time,” the museum said in its statement, “did the government make any attempt to collect the airplane as part of its seizure of Bergdoll’s assets, further legitimizing his gift.”
“We will continue,” the statement said, “to honor Mr. Bergdoll’s legacy by sharing the story of the Wright Brothers and his part in it with the world as he always wanted.”
The Bergdoll family said that, while it believes in the merits of its claim, it is not trying to rehabilitate the reputation of a man who became a figure of national loathing and in the end paid for his behavior. Though there were other so-called slackers, Bergdoll’s draft-dodging drew particular scorn because of his wealth, high profile and demonstrated disinterest in following the rules.
By 1917, when he failed to report for military service, Bergdoll had already taken flying lessons from Orville Wright, bought the plane for $5,000 and made a habit of buzzing buildings and other stunts. His reckless driving, multiple accidents and traffic violations as a teenager earned him the moniker “speed fiend” in the local press, and he served two months in jail after a head-on crash in 1913.
After he disappeared rather than serve in World War I, the government made an example of him, distributing his image on wanted posters across the country. When the man thought to have been drafted because Bergdoll didn’t show was shot to death in a French forest, The New York Times carried news of his death on Page 1: “Died Hero in Battle in Bergdoll’s Place.”
The posed nature of the picture of Bergdoll being arrested in 1920 gives some sense of the satisfaction law enforcement felt at the capture of the notorious draft dodger.Credit...The Bergdoll Family Collection, via Historical Society of Pennsylvania
Bergdoll was eventually caught in 1920 when a nationwide manhunt ended with him being found, hiding inside a window seat at his family’s gray stone mansion in Philadelphia. Sentenced to five years in prison, he served just a few weeks before managing a daring escape that transfixed the nation.
First, he convinced authorities to temporarily release him from prison so that he would help them find a so-called pot of gold that he claimed to have buried. Then he had his two U.S. Army escorts join him at a burlesque theater and visit with his mother at the family mansion. She served them breakfast and lunch. The sergeants played pool. Bergdoll escaped while they were distracted, fleeing with his chauffeur to Canada and then to his grandparents’ native Germany.
He settled initially in Eberbach, where a cousin ran a hotel, and then Weinsberg, after he met his wife, in southwest Germany, but often returned secretly to the United States. His escape provoked national outrage, and purported sightings of him — in Mexico, Switzerland and Germany — drew headlines.
In 1921, Bergdoll’s property was seized, under the federal “Trading With the Enemy Act,” on the personal direction of President Warren G. Harding. Bergdoll thwarted two efforts to kidnap him back from Germany including an incident in 1923 when he bit off the thumb of one man and shot another dead.
By 1933, more than two decades after it was built, the plane had become a dilapidated mess and was housed in a building on Bergdoll’s brother’s farm.
In December of that year, several men drove up and removed the plane, Lake said. A museum volunteer, William H. Sheahan, who was an official with the local flying club and had flown with Bergdoll; and C. Townsend Ludington, the assistant director of the museum, arranged for it be renovated.
The Franklin Institute displays the plane in an exhibit that not only records the early pioneers of aviation but also educates about the principles of flight. Credit...Hannah Yoon for The New York Times
By 1935, it was installed in the Franklin Institute’s new Beaux-Arts building on Benjamin Franklin Parkway. Franklin’s devotion to science is the museum’s guiding inspiration, and the plane became an exhibit at the museum where not just the objects of aviation but also the specific principles that underlie the physics of flight are displayed.
The explanation for how the plane ended up in the museum has been less precise.
A typewritten document in the museum’s files from the mid-1930s titled “Specifications” says the plane was “Presented: To the Franklin Institute by letter from Bergdoll to William H. Sheahan.”
In 1981, the museum’s director of exhibits co-wrote a book, “Aviation and Pennsylvania,” for the Franklin Institute Press that said, “After a short exchange of letters, Bergdoll, who was in exile in Germany, made a gift of the historic craft for display at The Institute.”
In 2019, Susannah Carroll, the Franklin curator, wrote in an email to Lake, the author of “The Bergdoll Boys,” that she had found a museum catalog card that said “a number of letters were exchanged between Bergdoll, William H. Sheahan, treasurer of the Aero Club of Pennsylvania, and Ludington. Bergdoll, who was in exile in Germany, made a gift of the historic craft, to the Institute, for public display.”
But in a later response, Carroll said she could not locate such letters and had come to doubt they ever existed. Still, she said, there remained “overwhelming circumstantial evidence” that the plane had been a gift.
She pointed out, for example, that in 1943 Berta Bergdoll seemed to acknowledge the transfer in a letter to Orville Wright in which she referred specifically to her husband’s Wright B as a plane “which was once his own.” The museum also cited newspaper accounts that reported Berta Bergdoll had visited the museum in 1938 with her oldest son, Alfred, who sat in the Model B.
In a letter to Orville Wright, Bergdoll’s wife, asked him to intercede to see if her husband might be released from prison to fly the plane at an event.Credit...The Franklin Institute
The museum cites the letter as evidence the Bergdolls recognized the plane was her husband’s gift because she refers to it as “which was once his own.”Credit...The Franklin Institute
But Lake and the Bergdoll family said Bergdoll and his relatives never made a fuss because they believed the museum’s account of a gift and that, by the time Grover Bergdoll returned to America in 1939, reclaiming an old plane was the least of his concerns.
Though museum procurement procedures at the time could be haphazard, Lake, a former Philadelphia television news anchor, said he found it odd that an institution as celebrated as the Franklin would have relied simply on a donor’s word. “How such a prestigious institution could accept the airplane from a third party without a written transfer document from the airplane owner is difficult to understand, even in the 1930s,” he said.
Bergdoll’s wife and children had already emigrated to the United States from Germany by the time he returned, voluntarily and out of money, claiming homesickness, and fleeing the Nazis. Stout, with a black mustache and a German accent, he was arrested on the S.S. Bremen in New York Harbor and served four years at Fort Leavenworth in Kansas.
He ultimately recovered 80 percent of the $535,000 in property seized by the government in 1921. After his release in 1944, he moved his family to Virginia, but according to his relatives began years of troubled decline. In 1946, he was charged with attacking his butler. He and Berta divorced in 1960. He died in 1966, at 72, from pneumonia, in a psychiatric hospital.
His daughter, Katharina, said she visited the museum, with her cousin Louis, around 2003 when the Model B was refurbished.
She said she gave no thought at the time to how the plane had gotten there. “I had no idea,” she said. But later she came to have doubts when Lake’s research piqued her interest.
Her niece, Lesley Gamble, a granddaughter of Grover Bergdoll, said that one reason the family had not inquired further about the plane was their relative’s dark past.
“As a granddaughter growing up, when they mentioned that the plane was at the Franklin, I didn’t ask how it got there because it’s a painful history,” she said. “It’s a hard thing to revisit how things were then when my grandfather was on the lam.”
Bergdoll’s final years were less chronicled but also dark. His family described him as an alcoholic with paranoid delusions who went as far as accusing his children of trying to poison him.
“He was largely living in the past in my childhood,” Katharina said. “I don’t think getting an airplane back was foremost in his thoughts.”
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
Суть «смены стратегии» США состоит в том, что Вашингтон должен выйти из этого конфликта по издержкам, а Европа по прибыли.
Соответственно, чтобы прекратить войну, России необходимо и достаточно показать Трампу, что ущерб от войны для США неприемлем и конфликт закончится тут же: Трамп не Байден, рефлексировать не станет.
Цитата:
Trump’s Ukraine envoy has a plan to end the war that Putin may revel in
CNN — In a single post, the president-elect told the world what the end of the Ukraine war might look like. And it is going to be a big diplomatic ask, to say the least.
“I am very pleased to nominate General Keith Kellogg to serve as Assistant to the President and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social channel. “Together, we will secure PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH, and Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!”
By appointing Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine, Donald Trump has also chosen a very specific, pre-announced plan for the thorniest foreign policy issue on his plate.
Kellogg, Trump’s 80-year-old former national security advisor, has laid out his peace plan in some detail, writing for the America First policy institute in April.
It begins calling the war “an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies… has entangled America in an endless war.”
In short, a ceasefire will freeze the frontlines and both sides will be forced to the negotiating table. But it is in the longer details where it all gets complex.
Changing the US’ involvement
Kellogg spends most time berating Biden’s actions - saying that his administration gave too little lethal aid too late. He says Trump’s decision to give the first lethal aid to Ukraine in 2018 conveyed the strength needed to confront Putin, and that Trump’s soft approach to the Kremlin head - not demonizing him like Biden has - will enable him to strike a deal.
Kellogg says more weapons should have been given before the Russian invasion, and immediately afterwards, to enable Ukraine to win.
But that’s when the plan – which CNN has reported that Trump’s soon-to-be national security adviser is considering - stops being to Ukraine’s liking.
Kellogg says the United States doesn’t need involvement in another conflict, and its own stocks of weaponry have suffered from aiding Ukraine, leaving the country potentially exposed in any conflict with China over Taiwan. He says Ukraine’s NATO membership - in truth a very distant prospect, tentatively offered to Kyiv in symbolic solidarity - should be put on hold indefinitely, “in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees.”
Foremost, the plan says it should become “a formal US policy to seek a ceasefire and negotiated settlement.”
It says future US aid - likely given as a loan - will be conditioned on Ukraine negotiating with Russia, and the US will arm Ukraine to the extent it can defend itself and stop any further Russian advances before and after any peace deal. This latter suggestion is perhaps dated by the fast Moscow advance underway in eastern Ukraine and the current high US level of aid already makes Kellogg uncomfortable.
Kellogg credits partially a 2023 article by Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan for some of the next ideas.
A freeze to the frontlines
The frontlines would be frozen by a ceasefire, and a demilitarized zone imposed. For agreeing to this, Russia would get limited sanctions relief, and full relief only when a peace deal is signed that is to Ukraine’s liking. A levy on Russian energy exports would pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Ukraine would not be asked to give up on reclaiming occupied territory, but it would agree to pursue it through diplomacy alone. It accepts “this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office.”
It is fetchingly simple and swift in its approach. But it lacks an accommodation of what Moscow will demand and has used the diplomatic process for in the past: To cynically pursue military advances. The freezing of the frontlines will precipitate a very violent few months ahead as Moscow seeks to take as much ground as it can. The Kremlin has in the past ignored ceasefires and pursued its territorial objectives - often blankly denying that it is.
A demilitarized zone would likely need to be policed, possibly putting NATO troops, or soldiers from other non-aligned nations, in between the two sides. That will be hard to maintain and staff, to say the least. It would be enormous, spanning hundreds of miles of border, and a massive financial investment.
Arming Ukraine to the extent it can stop present and future Russian advances will also be tough. The plan notes the United States manufactures 14,000 155 artillery rounds a month, which Ukraine can use up in just 48 hours. Paradoxically, Kellogg wants the US to arm Ukraine more, yet also accepts they really can’t.
A change in values
Two lines provide a wider insight into the author’s thinking. He says that national security, the America First way, was about practical necessities.
“Biden replaced the Trump approach with a liberal internationalist one that promoted Western values, human rights, and democracy,” he writes. That is a pretty grim base from which to build a compromise on European security.
He adds that some critics of continued aid to Ukraine - in which he seems to include himself - are “worried about whether America’s vital strategic interests are at stake in the Ukraine War, the potential of the involvement of US military forces and whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict.”
(выделенно а.п.)
These two sentences provide the ultimate backdrop for the deal proposed: That Ukraine’s war is about values we don’t need to perpetuate, and we should step back from Putin’s nuclear threat. It is the opposite of the current unity in which the West prioritizes the values of its own way of life and security, based on the lesson of the Thirties that appeased dictators don’t stop.
The plan presents Ukraine with a welcome chance for an end to the violence, at a time when it is losing on all fronts, and darkly short of basic manpower - a hurdle it may never overcome, and something in which Russia will likely always outpace it.
But it begins a process in which a wily and deceitful Putin will revel. Exploiting a ceasefire and Western weakness is his forte, the moment he has been waiting nearly three years for. The plan accepts Western fatigue, that its armament production cannot keep pace, and that its values are wasteful. It also makes little accommodation for what Russia will do to upset its vision.
It is a bleak compromise for a bleak war. But it may not end it and instead open a new chapter where Western unity and support begins to crumble, and Putin edges, both at the negotiating table and at the front, closer towards his goals.
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«Деньги в ЦСКА ей тоже номинально платили?» Что говорят об Исинбаевой в Госдуме
В российском спорте новый спор — предательница ли двукратная олимпийская чемпионка в прыжках с шестом Елена Исинбаева или нет, назвавшая звание майора армии РФ номинальным и удалившая все фотографии с Владимиром Путиным из соцсетей? Отдел спорта «Фонтанки» поговорил об этом со Светланой Журовой и Дмитрием Свищевым и услышал две разные точки зрения.
Что сделала Исинбаева
Елена Исинбаева — одна из самых успешных и узнаваемых спортсменов России. Если говорить только о легкой атлетике, где отечественных героев по понятным причинам нет уже очень давно, то тут она точно номер один. На ее счету два золота Олимпиады (2004, 2008), бронза Игр-2012, три звания чемпионки мира и десятки рекордов. Ее 5,06 метра, которые она прыгнула в 2009 году, до сих пор никто не переплюнул. После окончания карьеры Исинбаева активно включилась в общественно-политическую жизнь.
В 2012 году она была доверенным лицом Владимира Путина на выборах президента, в 2017-м вступила в движение Putin Team, а в январе 2020 года вошла в рабочую группу по поправкам в Конституцию.
Также она в 2013-м выражала поддержку российскому закону о гей-пропаганде, а в 2015-м подписала контракт о службе в Вооруженных силах России на пять лет, дослужившись до звания майора. Но после февраля 2022 года оказалось, что все это не считается.
Фактически Исинбаева уже много лет жила в Монако. Там у нее родились оба ребенка, там же она их крестила. Родной Волгоград еще в 2013-м она называла нищим и страшным. В июле 2022-го года испанское издание El Digital Sur сообщило, что российская чемпионка сменила Монако на солнечный остров Тенерифе. Из-за ее связи с армией и начала СВО у западной прессы было много вопросов к олимпийской чемпионке. Она ответила всего через несколько дней после публикации у себя в соцсетях. И тут уже вопросы возникли у российских патриотов.
«До 2018 года я выступала за ЦСКА и была удостоена высоких наград и званий за выдающиеся спортивные достижения. Те звания, о которых сегодня говорят, носят номинальный характер, так как я не состою и никогда не состояла на службе в Вооруженных силах РФ. Так же, как никогда не была депутатом Госдумы или членом какой-либо партии. Мое призвание — СПОРТ», — написала Елена.
Также она добавила, что она «человек мира» и «живет там, где работает». А работала она до лета 2024 года в МОК в комиссии спортсменов. В довесок из соцсетей Исинбаевой исчезли все фотографии с Владимиром Путиным.
После всего этого Исинбаеву исключили из штаба «Народного фронта», а названный в ее честь стадион в Махачкале переименовали в «Труд». Многие спортсмены раскритиковали ее. Экс-чемпион мира по боксу Николай Валуев призвал ее следить за языком, прыгун с шестом Матвей Волков назвал Исинбаеву лицемерной, но самым главным критиком Елены стала трехкратная олимпийская чемпионка, глава Федерации лыжных гонок России Елена Вяльбе. Она уже тогда не стеснялась слов в адрес именитой прыгуньи с шестом, а несколько дней назад и вовсе назвала ее предателем.
«Я считаю, что Исинбаева — предатель Родины. Как, сидя в Испании, ты представляешь Россию? Это все популизм некий. „Я номинальный майор российской армии“. Какого хрена ты тогда погоны получала, стояла рядом с министром ВС России, улыбалась?» — отметила Вяльбе в интервью каналу «Эмпатия Манучи».
Как к этому относиться, мы спросили у двух депутатов Госдумы: олимпийской чемпионки Светланы Журовой, входящей в комитет по международным делам, и Дмитрия Свищева, члена комитета Государственной Думы по физической культуре и спорту.
«Пусть это будет на совести Исинбаевой»
— Я сама никогда не перехожу на такие личности, — заявила Журова. — Елена Исинбаева — олимпийская чемпионка, легенда нашего цеха. Я стараюсь на людей ярлыки не вешать. Когда она была в России, я к ней относилась прекрасно. Как я поняла, потом она переехала в Монако, чтобы ребенок занимался теннисом. Изначально там никакой подоплеки не было. Это все потом уже началось. Поэтому тут все неоднозначно. А все, что касается ее заявлений о номинальном звании майора в армии и подтертых фотографий с президентом — тут не мне ее судить. Пусть это будет на ее совести.
— С жестким заявлением Вяльбе вы согласны?
— Я не хочу в этой истории вставать ни на чью сторону. Вяльбе всегда очень жестко
высказывается, она рубит правду-матку. Я не такая. Я скорее дипломат, чуть-чуть посмотрю, оценю обстоятельства. Ну такие прямолинейные люди, как Вяльбе, тоже нужны.
— У вас не было возможности поговорить с Исинбаевой напрямую?
— Я бы очень хотела понять все ее обстоятельства, почему она себя так повела. И я действительно хотела с ней поговорить. Я ей писала, но она мне так и не ответила. Пока я с ней не поговорю, с моей стороны было бы неприлично давать оценки. Мне надо понять, что произошло.
— Вас не удивляет ее молчание?
— Она как раз, может быть, и ушла со связи, чтобы не давать повода никому ничего больше обсуждать. Такой тоже есть психологический момент. Это ее позиция, наверное, поэтому она не отвечает никому и не оправдывается.
— Сможет ли она еще быть полезной российскому спорту?
— Не знаю пока. Вдруг она там засланный казачок и на самом деле она активно помогает под прикрытием, а мы ее тут сейчас предателем называем. Тоже не факт, что это не происходит. Может, она все это время пыталась сглаживать углы, пытается общаться. Я этого не знаю, но допускаю.
«Тебя никто не тащил в ЦСКА»
— Я не стал бы повторять за Вяльбе такие громкие заявления и называть Исинбаеву предателем, — признался Свищев. — Все-таки до прямых обвинений России, кажется, не дошло еще. Но надо понимать, что именно в России она пошла в секцию, здесь с ней работал тренер, государство финансировало ее подготовку, а ЦСКА и Министерство спорта создавали ей все условия, в том числе финансовые. При этом она демонстративно открестилась от ЦСКА. Слушайте, ну ты была официально трудоустроена в ЦСКА, как тут можно откреститься? Здесь, мне кажется, налицо нарушение российского законодательства. Она же, по-моему, до последнего момента была майором. Поэтому тут важно послушать мнение юристов. Любой гражданин должен нести ответственность за нарушение законодательства, будь ты олимпийским чемпионом или простым водителем. А то, как зарплату получать, звездочку на погоны получить, которая дает разные надбавки и привилегии от государства — это пожалуйста. А как страна оказалась в тяжелой ситуации, звездочка сразу стала номинальной. Какая номинальность? Тебя никто не тащил в ЦСКА, ты могла быть в любом в другом спортивном обществе. Но она пошла, потому что ее интересовали деньги и продвижение по службе. Это же очевидный факт, от которого она теперь пытается откреститься.
— Возможно, она тоже оказалась в сложной ситуации?
— Я понимаю, что Елена хочет жить в Европе, хочет работать в МОК, хочет дальше развиваться как спортивный функционер. Ей нужно было принимать какие-то решения. И она решила откреститься. Я не знаю, насколько ее позиция сейчас достаточна для МОК или других спортивных институтов, которые сейчас негативно к России относятся. Может, ей сделали исключение. И все равно я не понимаю, как это можно номинально состоять в ЦСКА, деньги же ей платили не номинально? К тому же ЦСКА — это структурное подразделение Министерства обороны. Тут никак не отвертеться. У меня даже есть совместные с ней фотографии, где она стоит в военной форме майора. Она ее на Хэллоуин надела, что ли?
Воздушное пространство Молдовы не было нарушено 28 ноября, беспилотниками или ракетами, однако они пролетели очень близко к территории страны, заявил премьер Дорин Речан.
P.S.
А.п. напоминает Уважаемым коллегам, что начиная с 25.11.2024, по независящим от него техническим причинам, все публикации будут возможны только с 9.00 утра, до 23.59 вечера текущих суток.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
The 'floating bunker' plan for Queen Elizabeth to escape a nuclear attack: As William worries about Armageddon, how the monarch, Prince Philip and the Home Secretary would have survived blasts together
They were the plans to protect the monarch when nuclear war seemed likelier than it had ever been.
In 1962 - when the Cuban Missile Crisis between the US and Russia had threatened global annihilation - what was initially codenamed Operation CANDID was drawn up by the government.
It and later iterations detailed how Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip would have either been sent to country houses away from London or, if there was time, evacuated to sea aboard Her Late Majesty's beloved Royal Yacht Britannia.
Crucially, the Home Secretary would have accompanied the royals - therefore allowing the Queen to have enough Privy Councillors present to appoint surviving politicians to ministerial posts in the aftermath of an attack.
Now, with renewed tensions between the West and Russia, the spectre of nuclear conflict has again been raised by some experts.
Amid Vladimir Putin's threats to launch nuclear weapons, the Daily Mail's Ephraim Hardcastle column reported this week that Prince William is concerned about the safety of his children, Prince George, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis.
William is said to be worried about 'the absence of provisions for saving his three heirs.'
Although all current plans related to where King Charles, Queen Camilla and other royals would go in the event of nuclear war are highly classified, they could not use the Royal Yacht because it was decommissioned by Tony Blair's Labour government in 1997.
But if the plans remain in any way similar to those first outlined in the 1960s, it would mean the King and Queen could be kept safe alongside Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.
Historian Sir Peter Hennessy revealed in his book Secret State that planning for the Queen's evacuation to a safe place began in her earliest years on the throne, in the 1950s.
Plans drawn up in the 1960s for how to protect the Royal Family in the event of a nuclear attack said Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip would have either been sent to country houses away from London or, if there was time, evacuated to sea aboard Her Late Majesty's beloved Royal Yacht Britannia
The Royal Yacht arriving at Torquay during a visit by the Queen and Prince Philip in 1988 It was decommissioned by Tony Blair's Labour government in 1997
'Once the royal yacht Britannia was commissioned in 1954, the plan was to get her aboard and out of danger during a period of international tension,' he wrote in the book, which was updated in 2010.
He added: 'The war planners realized that, as one insider put it, "It made no sense to have the Queen with the War Cabinet in case the whole lot were wiped out together."
'With an enduring sense of the personal royal prerogatives, it was appreciated that the Queen would need to appoint a new Prime Minister and senior ministers to replace the old set, if other politicians had survived, once it was safe for Britannia to sale back to her shattered kingdom.'
Professor Hennessy added in a note: 'I discovered many years later from a Buckingham Palace official that with the Home Secretary in attendance, the Queen would be able to find a quorum to enable her to convene a meeting of the Privy Council (the other two privy councillors with Her Majesty being the Duke of Edinburgh and her Private Secretary).
'A quorate Privy Council would enable the Queen, for example, to appoint surviving politicians to ministerial posts.
'The Home Secretary would board the Royal Yacht Britannia to join the royal party.'
Professor Hennessy examined the contents of a classified 'War Book' that was drawn up by the government in the 1960s.
The document was updated until the 1990s.
Now, with renewed tensions between the West and Russia, the spectre of nuclear conflict has again been raised by some experts. Amid Vladimir Putin 's threats to launch nuclear weapons, the Daily Mail's Ephraim Hardcastle column reported this week that Prince William is concerned about the safety of his children
The Cuban Missile Crisis threatened global nuclear annihilation. Above: Cuban dictator Fidel Castro during the crisis
Britain developed its nuclear weapons in the 1950s. Above: Britain's first atomic bomb test, October 3, 1952
Operation Python, a follow-up to Candid, would have seen the prime minister and other 'authorised retaliators' sent to several secret locations.
Professor Hennessy said in 2010: 'The Queen had to be kept separate because only The Queen can appoint a Prime Minister.
'She could not be with the Prime Minister and the War Cabinet because they would get wiped out the moment they operated from this bunker.
'The signals traffic would give the Sovs (Soviets) a very good idea of what was happening.'
The Royal Yacht plan would have seen the Queen 'lurk in the sea lochs of the North West coast of Scotland, moving from one to the other, because the mountains would stop the Sov [Soviet] radar getting to her,' he added.
The prime minister, military chiefs and 4,000 civil servants would have sheltered at what was officially known as the Central Government War Headquarters, also referred to as Burlington or Turnstile. Above: The former bunker pictured in 2006
Soldiers at work in the bunker at Corsham. The facility would have been protected from a nuclear blast and radiation
The Daily Mail's front page in October 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis
The prime minister, military chiefs and 4,000 civil servants would have sheltered at what was officially known as the Central Government War Headquarters, also referred to as Burlington or Turnstile.
The top-secret, giant bunker in Corsham, Wiltshire, stretches across 34 acres.
The complex was completed just before the Cuban Missile Crisis, when America discovered that Russia was housing nuclear missiles on nearby Cuba.
For 30 years, until the end of Margaret Thatcher's administration, it remained on standby. It was fully decommissioned in 2004.
The former bunker was visited by the Daily Mail's Robert Hardman in 2006.
Notre Dame rises from the ashes: Emmanuel Macron says France's 'nightmare is over' as cathedral's 'impossible' £600m restoration is unveiled five years after devastating 2019 fire
French President Emmanuel Macron inspected the newly renovated Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris today, and declared: 'She's Back!'.
Five years after a devastating fire threatened to destroy the ancient place of worship, it is set to reopen to the public next week.
Hailing a restoration costing at least £600million on Friday, Mr Macron walked around Notre Dame with his wife, Brigitte Macron, and said 'The nightmare is over.'
He paid tribute to those who had restored 'a great symbol of France' that is loved and venerated the world over.
Facing a 14th Century statue of the Virgin and Child in the Roman Catholic Cathedral's Saint-Aignan chapel, Mr Macron said it showed 'She's Back!'.
Mr Macron also offered 'all our thanks' to 1300 craftspeople who contribute to the restoration, and, in turn, they clapped him.
It was on April 15 2019, that millions around the world looked on in horror as flames tore through the building.
Ancient artefacts were destroyed, along with most of the wood and metal roof, along with the landmark spire.
General view of the Cathedrale Notre-Dame of Paris as French President Emmanuel Macron visits the construction site to thanks the donors and workers who worked to rebuild the monument after the fire that ravaged the cathedral on 15 April 2019 in Paris, France, 29 November 2024
President Macron visiting the cathedral. The Paris Cathedral will be officially inaugurated after nearly six years of renovation work on 07 December 2024
The Notre Dame suffered a fure on April 15 2019
The exact cause of the blaze was never established, but investigators believed it to be accidental, started by either a cigarette or a short circuit in the electrical system.
In the immediate aftermath, Mr Macron promised the church would be restored 'more beautiful than ever' within five years.
This pledge was kept thanks to millions in donations and hundreds of specialist artisans using age-old skills.
The finals cost of the restoration is expected to be around £600million, and much of it has been donated by French billionaires.
Bernard Arnault, who runs LVMH luxury goods conglomerate, donated almost £100million alone.
Companies such as Apple and Disney also offered donations to bring the Cathedral back to its former glory.
'Here we are,' Mr Macron posted on X, alongside a video clip of the Cathedral being built, to the music of Edith Piaf's Notre Dame de Paris (Our Lady of Paris).
Mr Macron will attend a Mass at the Cathedral next Saturday – December 7 – then the building officially reopens.
French President Emmanuel Macron (C) abd his wife Brigitte Macron (L) visit Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral in Paris, on November 29, 2024
A view of the altar designed by French artist and designer Guillaume Bardet of Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral in Paris
The Paris Cathedral will be officially inaugurated after nearly six years of renovation work on 07 December 2024
This photograph shows the inside of Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral in Paris
Mr Macron's administration hailed the reconstruction as a symbol of national unity
Some 1200 oaks from across France were needed to completely rebuild this framework of the nave and the choir, said Rémy Fromont, chief architect of historic monuments in France.
Before the fire, some 12 million people visited Notre Dame every year, and the number is expected to soar in 2025.
Entry to the Cathedral will remain free, and visitors will need to book a dedicated time slot through an online ticketing system.
With eight days to go before the Notre Dame's grand reopening on December 7, images of a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron showed the inside of the famous cathedral as worshippers might have experienced it back in medieval times, its wide, open spaces filled with bright light on a crisp and sunny winter's day.
Gaping holes left in the vaulted ceilings and charred piles of debris are now gone.
Mr Macron entered via the cathedral's giant and intricately carved front doors and stared up at the ceilings in wonder.
French President Emmanuel Macron delivers a speech amid attendees, including workers of reconstruction of Notre-Dame de Paris, in the nave of the cathedral in Paris
Workers who have participated in the restoration of the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral, which was ravaged by a fire in 2019, gesture after a speech by French President
French President Emmanuel Macron (2nd-R) and his wife Brigitte Macron (L), accompanied by President of the 'Rebatir Notre-Dame de Paris' public establishment Philippe Jost (3rd-R) visit Notre-Dame
The altar designed by French artist and designer Guillaume Bardet
Macron looks at the reliquary of the Crown of Thorns designed by French Artist Sylvain Dubuisson
Macron has thanked the donors and people who worked to rebuild the monument after it was severely damaged in a fire that broke out on 15 April 2019
Construction workers who took part in the restoration of the Notre Dame visited the cathedral on Friday
A view of the cathedral today
A view of part of a bas-relief outside Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral
This photograph shows cathedra chairs designed by French artist and designer Guillaume Barde
This photograph shows the tabernacle designed by French artist and designer Guillaume Bardet
The Paris Cathedral will be officially inaugurated after nearly six years of renovation work on 07 December 2024
A view shows stained glass windows at the Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral
President Macron and his wife Brigitte inside the cathedral with the Paris archbishop Laurent Ulrich
This photograph shows the facade of Notre-Dame de Paris
The occasion is Mr Macron's final visit to the construction site to see the restoration for himself before the famous monument's reopening for worship on December 8.
The visit kicks off a series of events ushering in the reopening of the 12th-century Gothic masterpiece.
Mr Macron's administration has hailed the reconstruction as a symbol of national unity.
'Even more beautiful than before, in the renewed radiance of the blonde stones and the colour of the chapels,' Macron said in a statement released to media on the eve of the visit.
The 'building site of the century' was a 'challenge that many considered insane', the president added.
The French president is hoping the opening of Notre Dame will be a major feather in his cap amid the current political deadlock following early parliamentary elections this summer.
World leaders are expected to join but the guest list has yet to be unveiled.
This photograph shows the Western Rose window of Notre-Dame de Paris
World leaders are expected to join the reopening next week but the guest list has yet to be unveiled
The restoration cost a total of nearly 700 million euros
Notre Dame's restoration was financed from the 846 million euros donations that poured in after the fire
Aerial photograph shows scaffoldings on Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral a few days before its reopening
French President Emmanuel Macron (L) and his wife Brigitte Macron (2nd-L), accompanied by President of the 'Rebatir Notre-Dame de Paris' public establishment Philippe Jost (C) and chief architect of Monuments History in charge of restoration Remi Fromont (2nd-R), speak with carpenter Jean-Louis Bidet during their visit to the spire of Notre-Dame
All 2,000 people who contributed to the work have been invited to next week's event, of whom at least 1,300 are expected to attend.
'This final site visit is an opportunity to thank them in particular - from wood craftsmen to those of metal and stone, from scaffolders to roofers, from bell makers to art restorers, from gilders to masons and sculptors, from carpenters to organ builders, from architects, archaeologists, engineers and planners to logistical and administrative functions,' Macron said ahead of the visit.
The restoration cost a total of nearly 700 million euros. It was financed from the 846 million euros in donations that poured in from 150 countries in an unprecedented surge of solidarity.
The 19th-century gothic spire has now been resurrected with an exact copy of the original, the stained windows have regained their colour, the walls shining after fire stains cleaned and a restored organ ready to thunder out again.
Unseen to visitors is a new mechanism to protect against any future fires, a discreet system of pipes ready to release millions of water droplets in case of a new disaster.
Notre Dame, which welcomed 12 million visitors in 2017, expects to receive an even higher figure of '14 to 15 million' after the reopening, according to the church authorities.
French ministers have also floated the idea of charging tourists an entrance fee to the site but the Paris diocese has said free admission was an important principle to maintain.
France is by its constitution a secular country with a strict division between church and state.
Smoke billows as fire engulfs the spire of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, France April 15, 2019
Debris seen inside the Notre Dame in 2019 following the fire
Sunday December 8 will see the first mass and consecration of the new altar.
Macron said in December 2023 he had invited Pope Francis to the reopening of the cathedral but the head of the Catholic church announced in September, to the surprise of some observers, that he would not be coming.
Instead, the pontiff is making a landmark visit during the subsequent weekend to the French island of Corsica.
The French Catholic church has in recent years been rocked by a succession of sexual abuse allegations against clerics, including most recently the monk known as Abbe Pierre who became a household name for providing aid to the destitute.
Over five years on, the investigation into what caused the fire is ongoing, with initial findings backing an accidental cause such as a short circuit, a welder's torch or a cigarette.
P.S.
А.п. напоминает Уважаемым коллегам, что начиная с 25.11.2024, по независящим от него техническим причинам, все публикации будут возможны только с 9.00 утра, до 23.59 вечера текущих суток.
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
World at most dangerous point in 40 years, MI6 chief warns
Vladimir Putin will not stop if he destroys Ukraine, Richard Moore says
Sir Richard Moore issued a warning to Ukraine’s allies as he spoke at an event in Paris on Friday (AP)
The world is at its most dangerous point for 40 years, the head of MI6 has warned, accusing Russia of waging a “staggeringly reckless campaign” of sabotage in Europe to undermine support for Ukraine.
Sir Richard Moore also said the West could face a “reckoning” as potential terrorists are radicalised over war in the Middle East.
“In 37 years in the intelligence profession I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state. And the impact on Europe, our shared European home, could hardly be more serious,” Sir Richard said, adding that if “Putin is allowed to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state he will not stop there”.
Sir Richard said MI6 “cherishes our heritage of covert action, which we keep alive today” – with British spies working to stop the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He warned that a victory for Mr Putin in Ukraine would jeapordise both European and transatlantic security, in what appeared a message to preseident-elect Donald Trump, with the incoming US president having repeatedly complained about the amount of money and military aid Washington is sending to help Kyiv.
“We have recently uncovered a staggeringly reckless campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe, even as Putin and his acolytes resort to nuclear sabre-rattling to sow fear about the consequences of aiding Ukraine,” he said. “The cost of supporting Ukraine is well known but the cost of not doing so would be infinitely higher. If Putin succeeds China would weigh the implications, North Korea would be emboldened and Iran would become still more dangerous,” he added.
“Our security - British, French, European and transatlantic - will be jeopardised,” Sir Richard said during an event with his French counterpart to mark 120 years since the Entente Cordiale, the Anglo-French diplomatic agreement, was first signed.
The spymaster said his agency and its French counterpart, run by Nicolas Lerner, were working together to prevent a dangerous escalation by “calibrating the risk and informing the decisions of our respective governments” in response to President Putin’s “mix of bluster and aggression”.
Vladimir Putin is waging a ‘staggeringly reckless’ sabotage campaign, Sir Richard Moore warned (Ramil Sitdikov/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo/AP)
Western officials have linked Moscow to several planned attacks in Europe in recent months, including an alleged plot to burn down Ukrainian-owned businesses in London, and to incendiary devices in packages on cargo planes. In July, one caught fire at a courier hub in Germany and another ignited in a warehouse in England.
Moscow has denied responsibility for all such incidents. Sir Richard’s remarks come after Ken McCallum, the head of the UK’s domestic intelligence service MI5, warned last month that Russian spies were on “a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets” – including “arson, sabotage and more dangerous actions conducted with increasing recklessness”.
Describing British intelligence officials as facing a “hell of a job”, Mr McCallum said both Russia and Iran had turned to employing private intelligence officers and criminals from both the UK and third countries.
Speaking on Friday, Mr Lerner, head of France's foreign spy agency DGSE, said that Britain’s experience in the wake of recent attacks like the Salisbury novichok poisoning in 2018 was invaluable to French intelligence officers seeking to defuse Russian actions.
Britain and France have been among Ukrainian allies most willing to allow Kyiv to use weapons they supply to hit certain targets inside Russia, after US president Joe Biden this month eased its long-held opposition to US-made ATACMS missiles being used to do so.
Since then, Russia has bombarded Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with hundreds of missiles and drones, fired and threatened the West with a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, and altered Russia’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for using such weapons.
A production hall is seen destroyed though the roof after a recent Russian missile attack at DTEK's power plant in Ukraine (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
While Mr Trump’s stance on Ukraine has raised concerns among some UK officials, Sir Richard – whose has been mentioned as a possible choice for the UK’s ambassador to Washington – said he was confident the transatlantic bond remained strong.
“For decades the US-UK intelligence alliance has made our societies safer,” he said. “I worked successfully with the first Trump administration to advance our shared security and look forward to doing so again.”
Sir Richard also directly addressed defence spending, with Mr Trump having called on Nato nations to spend more during his first term in the White House. “We know that we all need to do more,” he said. “That’s why the British government has committed to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence.”
However, the MI6 chief said Europe and North America already “have many times Russia’s GDP and defence budget”, adding: “We should never doubt that our alliance has strength in numbers, both economic and military, and our unity of purpose makes that count.”
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Если бы не война, то каждая из сцен это мелодрамы вызывала бы у нас закономерную улыбку.
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Zelensky hints he could agree a ceasefire deal to END war with Russia - even if Putin doesn't return land that is currently under occupation
Volodymyr Zelensky has hinted he would agree a ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war if Nato agrees to accept his country as a member.
In an interview with Sky News, the Ukrainian president suggested he was prepared to end the 'hot phase' of the war in exchange for membership of the bloc.
He said if the Ukrainian territory he controls was taken 'under the NATO umbrella', he could return the rest, which is currently under Russian occupation, in a 'diplomatic way'.
Zelensky has previously suggested that the war would not end until his country is returned to its internationally recognised borders.
'If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,' Zelensky said.
'We need to do it fast. And then on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.'
The Ukrainian leader was answering questions on what president-elect Donald Trump's desire to end the war would mean for his country.
It has been reported that one of the Republican's plans to achieve this would involve Kyiv ceding the land taken by Russia in exchange for Ukraine's Nato membership.
Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a joint statement with Prime Minister of Denmark following their meeting in Kyiv on November 19
President Zelensky and Trump meet at Trump Tower in New York on September 27
Mr Zelensky’s concessions follow a series of disappointments on the battlefield for Ukraine. Russia has taken six times as much Ukrainian territory in 2024 as it did last year.
And the pace of the Kremlin’s advances has forced Ukraine to send thousands of reservists to reinforce vulnerable areas in the east.
The Kremlin’s so-called ‘meat grinder’ tactics have resulted in Russia’s daily casualty figures breaking 2,000 for the first time, according to figures released on Friday.
Troops are ordered to charge at gunpoint towards Ukrainian defensive positions, leading to territorial gains but increasingly high losses through death, injury and fleeing from the frontline.
Zelensky's comments also come after an alliance chief assured last month that Ukraine will become a Nato member in the future - but was unable to say when the country might join.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reiterated on October 17 that the war-torn nation's place is among NATO's ranks.
'Ukraine will be a member of NATO in the future,' Rutte said. 'The question is exactly about the 'when'. I cannot answer that now.'
He said Vladimir Putin must understand that 'we are in this, if necessary, for the long haul. And obviously we want to be in a place where Zelensky and Ukraine, from a position of strength, is able to start talks with Russia.'
Zelensky has previously insisted that a Nato membership invitation is central to his 'victory plan' to end the devastating with Russia.
Earlier this year, he presented this proposal to the Ukrainian parliament which included a refusal to cede territory to Russia as a precursor to coming to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, German defence giant Rheinmetall and Lithuania on Friday signed deals to begin construction of a $190-million ammunition plant to make artillery shells in the EU and NATO member, which has been nervously eying Russia.
Dubbed by Vilnius the largest defence investment in Lithuania's history, the plant is seen as a new sign of Europe re-arming to counter security threats from Moscow.
Rheinmetall signed a land lease agreement and supply contract with the Lithuanian government for the procurement of 155mm ammunition.
'This agreement provides maximum benefit to Lithuania, both in terms of defence and ammunition procurement,' Lithuanian Economy Minister Ausrine Armonaite told reporters in Vilnius.
Zelensky holds a telephone conversation with the prime minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau
Rheinmetall, Germany's largest military equipment maker, said it would invest 180 million euros ($190 million) in the plant, which is due to begin operations in mid-2026.
Once completed, it 'would be able to produce tens of thousands of 155mm calibre artillery shells per year,' Rheinmetall said in a statement.
The factory will be located near Baisogala, a northern Lithuanian town close to a NATO air base.
Putin's legs twitch uncontrollably in bizarre footage in latest evidence the Russian leader is suffering from health problems
Strange footage shows Vladimir Putin's legs twitching uncontrollably at a public event yesterday amid rumours he has Parkinson's disease.
The 72-year-old Russian leader appeared unable to control his movements as he gave an hour-long speech at a podium in Astana, Kazakhstan.
In the clip, the twitching seems to start in his left foot before affecting both his legs and feet.
Putin then took a wider stance but continued to rock back onto his heels and move his legs.
The Russian leader has been plagued with rumours about his health in recent years - despite the Kremlin vehemently denying the claims.
Last week, Ukraine's internal affairs spokesman Anton Geraschenko claimed during an eight-minute video address, Putin showed signs of serious health problems.
He said that the footage, in which Putin threatened the West with long-range missiles, appeared to have been manipulated, with his hands barely moving.
Analysts suggested the changes could have been made to hide the effects of Parkinson's disease that causes the body to shake.
Strange footage shows Vladimir Putin's legs twitching uncontrollably at a public event yesterday amid rumours he has Parkinson's disease
The 72-year-old Russian leader appeared unable to control his movements as he gave an hour-long speech in Astana, Kazakhstan
Putin then took a wider stance but continued to rock back onto his heels and move his legs
Commenting on the latest video, Gerashenko said: 'I wasn't sure about Putin's hands.
'But these legs and feet are definitely his. And the heels, too. That's clear.'
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Особенно если сравнить с одним из коллажей в этом же номере этого же издания:
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Цитата:
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
«Они могут найти другого лоха».
Трамп требует от БРИКС не создавать валюту, которая может стать альтернативой доллару, и грозит огромными пошлинами для доступа на рынок США.
«Мы требуем от этих стран обязательства не создавать новую валюту БРИКС и не поддерживать никакую другую валюту, чтобы заменить могучий доллар США, иначе они столкнутся со 100%-ными пошлинами и должны будут попрощаться с продажами в замечательную экономику США. Они могут пойти и найти другого «лоха!» Нет никаких шансов, что БРИКС заменит доллар США в международной торговле, и любая страна, которая попытается это сделать, должна помахать Америке рукой»
, - заявил избранный президент Штатов.
Напомним, в БРИКС состоит Китай - крупнейшая страна-экспортер, занимающая огромную долю на американском рынке. Также в объединение входят Индия и Бразилия, также имеющие крупномасштабную торговлю со США.
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Что и кому на самом деле сказал избранный президент США
В своей сети Truth Social Дональд Трамп, как известно, написал в отношении стран БРИКС:
"Мы требуем от этих стран обязательства, что они не создадут новую валюту БРИКС, не поддержат ни одну другую валюту, чтобы заменить могучий доллар США, или они столкнутся со 100% тарифами, и тогда им придётся попрощаться с продажами в замечательную экономику США".
Итак:
1️⃣ Китай уже заменяет доллар юанем на части рынков и, независимо от того, откажется ли он от этого или нет, всё равно столкнётся со значительными тарифами (импортными пошлинами) на свои товары. На высокотехнологичную продукцию пошлины эти будут просто запретительными.
2️⃣ БРИКС не собирается вводить никакую единую валюту. Это попросту контрпродуктивно. Будет единая цифровая платформа и клиринг. Будет расширяться торговля в национальных валютах. И этот процесс (А) идёт уже давно и (Б) будет неизбежно расширяться. О клиринге ничего не сказано.
3️⃣ Россия уже фактически отключена от доллара США. Работа в долларе идёт через лазейки, которые сами власти США не слишком поспешно, но последовательно закрывают. Был ли намёк на то, что Росси можно будет угрожать перекрытием торговли с Соединенными Штатами? Вряд ли, поскольку такая торговля отсутствует. Можно ли угрожать, например, Индии и новым кандидатам в БРИКС закрытием американского рынка? Можно. Но продуктивно ли это? Можно ли пытаться использовать данный рычаг (своего рода анти-БРИКС) в переговорах с Россией? Можно. Понимает ли Трамп, что угрозы разрушить БРИКС в случае неуступчивости России — это эскалация, которая приведёт лишь к ускорению и СВО, и отделения значительной части мира от доллара? Понимает.
4️⃣ Есть ли у Трампа конфликт... точнее, серьёзные разногласия с Федеральной резервной системой относительно экономической стратегии? Есть. Делает ли ФРС шаги навстречу Трампу? Делает. Федеральный резерв не только снижает ставку (и собирается в 2025 году снижать ещё), но и повышает планку целевой инфляции. Более того, совершенно определённо намечен курс на отказ от части наличной валюты, распространённой по миру. Достаточно ли этого Трампу? Нет, недостаточно. Ему необходимо полное подчинение. Чего хотел бы Федеральный резерв в нынешних нестабильных условиях? Он хотел бы, чтобы никто не делал резких движений. ФРС необходимо подготовиться к будущему неминуемому кризису. Трамп же заявил, что готов не только к торговым, но и к валютным войнам. И это, в отличие от ситуации с Индией, Россией, Китаем и другими странами, до предела наевшихся валютным волюнтаризмом США, очень хороший рычаг в принуждении ФРС к подчинению.
5️⃣ Трамп, конечно, самодур и выдумщик. Но при этом до мозга костей реалист. Он, в отличие от предыдущей администрации, прекрасно понимает, что единой долларовой зоне приходит конец. Отсюда эти постоянные пробросы про биткойн (а также любимый Маском Dogecoin). Отсюда же "шутки" про списание всего госдолга США одним росчерком пера. Вопрос один: кто будет управлять изменением роли доллара и регионализацией мировых валютных взаимоотношений? Трамп утверждает: я.
What Putin’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile means for NATO security
The Russian leader’s use of the missile against Ukraine sends a powerful signal about his intention to weaken NATO and bend Europe’s security architecture to Russia’s will.
After Russia’s launch last week of its Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, state-owned propaganda outlet RT aired a video graphic depicting the missile’s flight times to major European capitals: 20 minutes to London and Paris, 15 minutes to Berlin and 12 minutes to Warsaw.
In his most aggressive nuclear signaling since invading Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly extolled the missile in public statements, claiming that NATO has no way to intercept it and warning that Moscow could use it against Kyiv’s “decision-making centers.” The missile is nuclear-capable, but for now, Putin says, it will be armed with multiple conventional warheads.
“We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” Putin warned in a Nov. 21 address, announcing the Oreshnik strike on an aerospace manufacturer in Dnipro, Ukraine.
Western leaders and analysts dismissed Putin’s rhetoric as more Russian saber-rattling, after yet another of Moscow’s red lines was crossed when President Joe Biden allowed Kyiv to use the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to strike targets inside Russia.
But Putin’s threat, clearly directed at Europe, comes at a critical moment, with the United States in political transition and Europe in trepidation of President-elect Donald Trump’s admiration for the Russian leader and the extent to which he could scale back Washington’s commitment to NATO. Meanwhile, Russia is steadily gaining ground in eastern Ukraine, intensifying pressure on Kyiv’s forces as Putin rules out any compromise to end the war.
Moscow’s use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile sends its own powerful signal about Putin’s determination to prevail in Ukraine, as he seeks to weaken NATO, split Europe from the United States, deter European support for Ukraine and bend Europe’s security architecture to Russia’s will.
The Oreshnik — meaning “hazelnut tree” — poses a direct and potentially devastating threat to Europe, even if conventionally armed, according to analysts.
It marks what some Western arms experts see as the opening shot in a new European arms race that could last for decades and consume billions of dollars in NATO countries and Russia, with Moscow already plowing about 40 percent of its budget into military and security forces.
In a move foreshadowed months ago but timed to express displeasure over Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and French-British Storm Shadow missiles against Russia, Putin last week also formally lowered Russia’s threshold for using nuclear weapons.
This deepens the ambiguity about when Russia could use nuclear weapons, as Putin seeks to foster uncertainty and amplify European security fears ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
Russia’s previous nuclear doctrine stated that it could use nuclear weapons against a conventional attack that threatened its very existence. That wording was replaced by a reference to attacks that posed a “critical threat” to Russian or Belarusian sovereignty or territorial integrity, as well as a provision that Moscow could launch a nuclear attack against a nonnuclear power — such as Ukraine — that is using the weapons of a nuclear power — such as the United States.
The Pentagon as well as Western arms-control experts believe that the Oreshnik is not new — they say it is likely based on the RS-26 Rubezh missile, which was tested several times more than a decade ago, publicly shelved in 2018 and recently pulled out and modified. Putin ordered mass production of the Oreshnik and said many similar systems were being developed.
At a Nov. 22 meeting between Putin and top military and security chiefs, Sergei Karakayev, commander of Russia’s strategic missile forces, said that the Oreshnik “can hit targets throughout Europe” and that a massed attack “would be comparable to the use of nuclear weapons.”
Decker Eveleth, an analyst at the CNA security think tank, based in Arlington, Va., said that Russia could destroy air bases and military targets across a wide area of Europe with just a few conventionally armed Oreshniks, and that the weapon’s nuclear capability carries a striking nuclear threat.
“Oreshnik probably has the capability to carry six nuclear warheads into Europe in about 15 to 20 minutes, and due to the speed and trajectory the missile would fly on, it would be extremely difficult to intercept,” he said.
At the meeting with security chiefs, Putin smiled as he praised the missile, boasting that no one else in the world has such a weapon and promising state awards to the developers. His message was clear: Russia has a significant advantage over Europe in missile strike capabilities, at a time when Trump’s future support for NATO is in doubt.
“The desired effect was certainly achieved: panic, disagreements, calls for negotiations and peace,” said hawkish state television anchor Vladimir Solovyov, gloating that Russia could strike “those NATO bases that are supplying the weapons which the Americans are launching from the territory of Ukraine targeting Russian territory — in Poland, Romania, Britain or wherever else.”
RT editor in chief Margarita Simonyan said on the same program that Russia needs to terrify Europe with the real impact of war. “Until they see the fist flying toward their snout, they will not stop,” she said.
Alexander Graef, senior researcher at the Hamburg-based Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, believes that Europe is at the threshold of “a new missile age.” In July, the United States and Germany announced plans to rotate intermediate-range U.S. missiles into Germany starting in 2026 — prompting a sharp response from Moscow — while several nations have joined a French-led project, the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA), to develop a long-range missile.
“We are in an arms race, and it’s going to develop over the next 20 years,” Graef said. “And so what I think is going to happen is that these different parties — Russia, states in Europe, the United States — are growing their arsenals because they don’t have the numbers yet to use these weapons effectively and to destroy the many targets that are possibly there.”
But some doubt NATO’s will to deter Russia, as Moscow seeks to exploit the divisions between states, courting Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who has taken a staunchly pro-Kremlin stance.
Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat and an expert on arms control and global security, said NATO leaders had repeatedly faltered in the face of Putin’s nuclear threats, which had succeeded in deterring timely Western military deliveries to Kyiv, allowing Putin to avoid defeat.
“I don’t think that the plans in Moscow are really to make a nuclear war. The weapon remains fear. It’s first of all psychological warfare, and I think it is quite successful. This propaganda works,” he said. “It’s essentially just a misunderstanding of how to deal with Vladimir Putin.”
Putin, Bondarev continued, would make no deal with Trump to end the Ukraine war unless it gave him a victory over Kyiv, shutting Ukraine out of NATO and leaving occupied Ukrainian territory in Russian hands. That would pave the way for the Russian leader to confront Europe in the future, potentially even invading one of the Baltic nations.
“He doesn’t want to divide Ukraine. He wants to divide the world. He wants his own sphere of influence where no one, including the United States, can get into without his permission. I don’t know why Americans do not see it, because if they make a deal with Putin, they will hand him this victory.”
The Oreshnik would have been barred under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) between the United States and the Soviet Union, which banned missiles with ranges of 310 to 3,400 miles. Trump withdrew the United States from the treaty in 2019 after long-running U.S. accusations of Russian violations.
“We had a treaty that prohibited this kind of missile, and that was for good reason. It was because they were deemed very destabilizing,” said François Diaz-Maurin, associate editor for nuclear affairs at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, referring to the missile’s speed, its multiple independently targeted warheads and the potential for a catastrophic misunderstanding created by its dual conventional and nuclear capabilities.
“Once launched, this missile gets to European capitals within 12 to 16 minutes. It’s very little time to be able to react, to detect it. And then added to that is a possibility that it could have a nuclear warhead inside of several of them. It gives very little time to know what’s coming at you.”
Even as Europe awakens to the need to protect itself and deter Russia, it cannot yet match Putin, who has geared the bulk of Russia’s economy to war and weapons production, he said.
“This new missile is actually a confirmation why Europe should actually take the lead on its own security,” Diaz-Maurin said.
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Urlaubsziel Ukraine: Kriegstouristen auf den Spuren der Zerstörung
Sogenannte Kriegstouristen reisen in die Ukraine, um die Zerstörungen des russischen Angriffskriegs mit eigenen Augen zu sehen. Touren in Kriegsgebiete wie Irpin oder Charkiw, die teils als „Schwarzer Tourismus“ bezeichnet werden, werfen ethische Fragen auf.
Die Ukrainer hatten die Brüche von Irpin gesprengt, um den Vormarsch der russischen Truppen zu stoppen. (Archivbild)
"Ein bisschen Angst habe ich schon", sagt Alberto Blasco Ventas angesichts der russischen Raketen, die fast täglich Kiew angreifen. "Ich bin zum ersten Mal in einem Kriegsgebiet." Dabei hat der 23-jährige Spanier eine anstrengende Reise auf sich genommen, um den Krieg hautnah zu erleben. Und Blasco Ventas ist bei weitem nicht der einzige Kriegstourist in der Ukraine - immer mehr Ausländer wollen die Zerstörung mit eigenen Augen sehen.
Der Spanier blickt auf die kaputte Brücke von Irpin, einer Vorstadt von Kiew. Die Ukrainer hatten die Brücke zu Beginn des Krieges 2022 gesprengt, um den Vormarsch der russischen Truppen auf die Hauptstadt zu stoppen. Heute ist Irpin eine der wichtigsten Sehenswürdigkeiten für Kriegstouristen.
"Schwarzer Tourismus" nennt sich diese Nische der Reisebranche, etwa ein Dutzend ukrainische Unternehmen bietet Touren wie jene nach Irpin an. Blasco Ventas hat bei War Tours gebucht. Die Agentur hat eigenen Angaben zufolge in diesem Jahr etwa 30 Kunden begleitet, hauptsächlich aus Europa und den USA.
Teile der Gewinne gehen an die Armee
Die Touren konzentrieren sich meist auf Kiew und seine Vororte, in denen die russischen Soldaten mutmasslich Massaker an Zivilisten verübten, und kosten zwischen 150 Euro und 250 Euro.
Ein Teil der Gewinne gehe an die Armee, sagt der Mitbegründer des Unternehmens, Dmytro Nykyforow. Bei den Touren gehe es jedoch "nicht um Geld, sondern um die Erinnerung an den Krieg". Die Besuche hätten vor allem einen pädagogischen Wert, versichert auch Switosar Moiseiw, Manager des Tourismusunternehmens Capital Tours Kiew. "Sie sind wie ein Impfstoff, um zu verhindern, dass so etwas jemals wieder passiert."
Blasco Ventas filmt jeden Schritt seiner Reise. Die Videos veröffentlicht er in seinem Youtube-Kanal, dem 115'000 Menschen folgen. Auch andere ungewöhnliche Urlaubsziele hat der Software-Ingenieur dort dokumentiert - die "schrecklichste psychiatrische Klinik" in den USA und die "gefährlichste Grenze" der Welt zwischen China, Russland und Nordkorea.
Seine Familie hatte Bedenken, dass der Sohn nun auch noch in die Ukraine reist. Blasco Ventas stieg dennoch ins Flugzeug nach Moldau. Weiter ging es mit dem Zug in 18 Stunden nach Kiew. Die Hauptstadt ist zwar immer wieder unter Beschuss, doch die Front ist mehrere hundert Kilometer entfernt.
Für tausende Euro bis fast ins Kampfgebiet
Manche Reiseagenturen bringen ihre Kunden für tausende Euro auch fast bis ins Kampfgebiet. Nick Tan aus den USA wagte die Reise: Im Juli flog er nach Charkiw. Die zweitgrösste Stadt der Ukraine liegt 20 Kilometer von der Front entfernt und wird ständig bombardiert.
"Ich wollte es einfach sehen, weil ich denke, dass unser Leben im Westen zu bequem und einfach ist", sagt der 34-Jährige, der für ein New Yorker Technologieunternehmen arbeitet. Eigentlich wollte er noch näher an die Gefechtslinie, doch das liess sein Reiseführer nicht zu.
Tan sucht den Nervenkitzel. Früher fand er ihn beim Fallschirmspringen, Boxen und auf Raves. "Aus Flugzeugen zu springen, die ganze Nacht zu feiern und Leuten ins Gesicht zu schlagen, das ist nichts mehr für mich. Was ist also das Nächstbeste? In ein Kriegsgebiet zu gehen", sagt er.
Auf Menschen im zerstörten Irpin, die immer noch in ständiger Gefahr leben, wirkt diese Einstellung befremdlich. "Eine Schahed-Drohne ist kürzlich 300 Meter von meinem Haus entfernt abgestürzt. Ich hätte nicht das Bedürfnis, so etwas zu erleben", sagt der 52-jährige Ruslan Sawtschuk. "Aber wenn die Menschen das wollen, ist es ihr Recht."
Ethische Fragen um den Kriegstourismus
Die meisten Einwohner seien mit dem schwarzen Tourismus einverstanden, sagt Mychailyna Skoryk-Schkariwska, Gemeinderätin in Irpin. Aber es gebe auch Vorwürfe. "'Warum kommt ihr hierher? Warum wollt ihr unsere Trauer sehen?'", fragten manche Leute die Touristen. Auch Mariana Oleskiw, Leiterin der Nationalen Agentur für Tourismusentwicklung, sieht die ethischen Fragen des Kriegstourismus. Deshalb bereitet die Agentur spezielle Schulungen für Reiseführer vor.
Schon vor dem Krieg waren jedes Jahr Zehntausende Katastrophentouristen in die Ukraine gereist, um Tschernobyl zu besuchen, wo sich 1986 der schlimmste Atomunfall der Welt ereignet hatte. Seit dem Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs im Februar 2022 ist der Tourismus in der Ukraine weitgehend zusammengebrochen. Jetzt kommen aus dem Ausland hauptsächlich Geschäftsreisende.
Doch die ukrainische Tourismusbranche bereitet sich schon auf die Zeit nach dem Krieg vor, zum Beispiel mit Verträgen mit den Reiseportalen Airbnb und TripAdvisor. Oleskiw ist zuversichtlich: "Der Krieg hat die Aufmerksamkeit auf die Ukraine gelenkt, jetzt kennt zumindest jeder unser Land."
Во Львовской области больше не осталось храмов УПЦ, заявил губернатор Максим Козицкий.
По его словам, регион стал первым в Украине, где больше нет ни одной зарегистрированной религиозной общины этой церкви.
Из имевшихся 54 общин 27 вошли в ПЦУ, а еще 27 «прекратили свою деятельность по собственному решению» (то есть, храмы просто закрылись).
Что сподвигло их на такое "решение", губернатор не уточнил.
Во Львове последний храм УПЦ снесли спецтехникой еще в апреле 2023 года после лишения права на землю. Накануне другой храм во Львове у церкви отобрали силой.
P.S.
А.п. напоминает Уважаемым коллегам, что начиная с 25.11.2024, по независящим от него техническим причинам, все публикации будут возможны только с 9.00 утра, до 23.59 вечера текущих суток.
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С интересом и понятными пожеланиями, Dimitriy.
В последнее время советско-финскую войну, которая началась 85 лет назад, часто сравнивают с войной в Украине.
Аналогий действительно много.
Также как и финской войне вторжению РФ в Украине предшествовал длительный, но безуспешный переговорно-дипломатический процесс, в ходе которого Москва пыталась получить нужный ей результат – реализацию политической части Минских соглашений и нейтральный статус Украины. Но по обоим вопросам получила отказ от Украины и Запада.
Как и в 1939 году, так и в 2022-м Москва, объявляя о вторжении, главным его обоснованием назвала провал попыток решить вопросы дипломатическим путем.
Как и в 1939-м, так и в 2022-м первоначально Москва ставила максималистские задачи (установление лояльного себе правительства в Финляндии и в Украине), однако кардинальным образом недооценила силу сопротивления. Причем в 2022 году недооценила еще сильнее, чем в 1939 году. Тогда против 250-тысячной финской армии Сталин бросил в бой 420 тысяч солдат. Этого было явно недостаточно, чтоб создать необходимое преимущество в живой силе для быстрого прорыва, однако все ж таки определенный перевес в живой силе имелся. В то время как в феврале 2022 года против Украины была отправлена армия численностью, по разным оценкам, в 150-180 тысяч солдат, что было меньше, чем на момент вторжения составляли сухопутные силы обороны Украины (ВСУ, Нацгвардия, погранвойска). А после того, как в Украине начали мобилизацию и призыв резервистов, а также благодаря большому притоку добровольцев, силы обороны увеличились сразу на сотни тысяч человек, создав многократное численное преимущество над силами вторжения. При таком соотношении было невозможно выполнить поставленные российским руководством задачи, даже будь на месте армии РФ образца 2022 года космодесант.
Как и в 1939-м, так и в 2022-м, в первые недели российские войска смогли несколько продвинуться, однако затем уперлись в стойкую оборону и начали нести большие потери.
Как и в 1939-м, так и в 2022-м, увидев провал первоначальных планов, Москва была готова к переговорам о прекращении войны на тех же примерно условиях, что и до ее начала. И также как в январе 1940-го финское руководство, украинское руководство весной 2022 года ответило отказом. В обоих случаях немалую роль в таком отказе сыграло обещание масштабной помощи со стороны западных держав.
Как и в 1940-м году, так и сейчас расчет на быстрый разгром России не оправдались. Наоборот, Москва в обоих случаях отбила контрнаступление, затем накопила силы и перехватила инициативу на фронте, продвигаясь на многих его участках и захватывая новые территории.
В 1940-м году Финляндия в таких условиях была вынуждена пойти на мир с Москвой на куда худших условиях, чем предлагались до войны (хотя и Сталин не выполнил свою задачу-максимум по взятию под контроль всей страны).
Сейчас также все обсуждают скорое завершение войны на куда худших для Украины условиях (завершение войны по линии фронта с фактической потерей 20% территории и отказ от вступления в НАТО), чем были до вторжения и в марте 2022 года. Впрочем, сейчас пока нет гарантий, что война скоро закончится в ближайшее время.
Однако есть и отличия.
Украина еще не в столь тяжелом состоянии, как была Финляндия в марте 1940 года.
Во-первых, общее соотношений сил между Украиной и Россией сейчас явно иное, чем было в 1939 году между Финляндией с населением 3,6 млн человек и СССР с тогдашним населением в более чем 180 миллионов (после присоединения Западной Украины и Западной Беларуси).
Во-вторых, возможности потенциальных союзников Финляндии – Франции и Британии, помочь ей в войне были крайне ограничены (они сами находились в состоянии большой войны с Германией и не имели с финнами общей границы). В то время как через западную границу Украина может получать любые объемы помощи. Другой вопрос, что помощи этой, по заявлениям Киева, недостаточно. Но каких-либо логистических препятствий для ее расширения (если на это будет способен и готов Запад) нет.
В-третьих, и в главных, украинской армии на данный момент еще не нанесено поражение такого уровня как прорыв линии Маннергейма в 1940-м году. ВСУ отступают, но пока не допускает глубоких прорывов фронта, которые бы угрожали полным и скорым разгромом всей армии.
Для Украины аналогом прорыва "линий Маннергейма" может стать наступление следующих событий.
"Порыв первой линии" – захват Днепра и Запорожья, что обрушит логистику ВСУ почти на половине фронта и создаст российский плацдарм на правом берегу Днепра.
"Прорыв второй линии" - захват Одессы и отрезание Украины от моря.
"Порыв третьей линии" - захват Киева или угроза захвата Киева.
Пока российской армии далеко до этих линий. Другой вопрос, что в случае, если они (или хотя бы даже первая из них) будут прорваны, то условия завершения войны для Украины будут многократно хуже, чем те, которые обсуждаются сейчас. И даже хуже, чем те, которые в июне предложил Путин.
На это и делают упор те силы в Украине и на Западе, которые призывают завершить войну в ближайшее время по линии фронта.
Впрочем, вне зависимости от того, завершится ли война в ближайшее время или нет, сейчас перед Украиной, Россией и всей Европой стоит выбор стратегического сценария дальнейшего хода событий. Перетечет ли нынешняя война (через паузу в виде прекращения огня по линии фронта или без нее) в войну более масштабную – между Россией и Западом с перспективой перерастания ее в ядерную. Либо будет выработана новая архитектура безопасности в Европе, которая не только завершит войну в Украине, но и сделает ее повторение невозможным.
При желании здесь также можно провести аналогии с событиями 80-85-летней давности.
Окончание советско-финской войны в марте 1940 года стало лишь паузой перед новой большой войной 1941 года. В то время как завершение советско-финской войны в 1944 году не превратилось ни в оккупацию Финляндии, ни в передышку перед новыми боями, а привело к созданию устойчивой системы безопасности и к стабильным отношениям между двумя бывшими противниками – СССР и Финляндией, в результате чего последняя сохранила независимость и свой путь развития.
Цитата:
Польша планирует возвести военные укрепления на границе с Украиной. Об этом сообщил премьер страны Дональд Туск, посещая аналогичные сооружения на польско-российской границе.
«Все, что мы здесь делаем, и мы будем делать это также на границе с Беларусью и Украиной, должно отпугнуть и отпугнить возможного агрессора, поэтому это действительно инвестиция в мир», - сказал Туск.
О каком «агрессоре», который может напасть на Польшу со стороны Украины, идет речь, премьер не уточнил.
«Восточный щит» - это 700 километров границы, которые укрепляет Польша в рамках «Балтийской линии обороны», в которой участвуют также Эстония, Латвия и Литва. Заявляется, что эти меры направлены против России и Беларуси.
Summa Defence to launch drone production facility in Finland with Ukrainian partners
Finnish defence and security technology group Summa Defence Ltd has announced plans to establish a drone production facility in Finland in collaboration with Ukrainian companies. The facility aims to boost production capacity for combat drones deployed in Ukraine while introducing industrial-scale drone manufacturing to Finland and Europe. Full-scale production is expected to begin in the first half of 2025.
Jussi Holopainen, CEO of Summa Defence Ltd, highlighted the growing demand for drone technology. “Drones will be delivered not only to Ukraine but also across the European Union and NATO countries. They will become a permanent part of society, securing critical functions in civilian, defence, and security sectors,” he said.
The initiative represents a strategic investment, with Summa Defence forming a subsidiary, Summa Drones Ltd, to oversee operations. Summa Drones will establish a joint venture in Finland with Ukrainian partners, holding a majority stake. Participating Ukrainian drone companies include Kort, Elf Systems, Skyassist, and MPS Development. The facility will manufacture aerial drones as well as ground and marine drones.
The drones being integrated into Summa Defence Group’s portfolio have already demonstrated their strategic value in Ukraine, particularly in protecting critical infrastructure and during emergency and rescue operations. Holopainen underscored the importance of the venture, saying, “Establishing production in Finland enhances security of supply both in Ukraine and internationally.”
Summa Defence envisions building a growth-oriented company uniting actors in the defence and security sectors. It plans to focus on dual-use technologies in situational awareness, mobility, and protection, with applications across civilian, security, and defence industries. The group seeks partners with the capacity and ambition for international growth, particularly in NATO member countries, while ensuring acquired companies retain their identities and benefit from group synergies.
Summa Defence is also in the final stages of acquisition negotiations with several companies in the security and defence technology sectors, further strengthening its position in the industry.
Цитата:
Finland urged to opt out of anti-personnel landmine ban in citizens’ initiative
An anti-personnel landmine (foreground) and anti-vehicle landmine photographed during a military exercise in Finland in August 1996. A citizens’ initiative drafted by a group of lawmakers and foreign policy experts is urging Finland to pull out of the Ottawa Convention, an international agreement prohibiting anti-personnel landmines, citing changes in the country’s security environment. (Matti Björkman – Lehtikuva)
A GROUP of lawmakers and prominent foreign policy experts has launched a citizens’ initiative urging Finland to opt out of the Ottawa Convention, an international agreement banning anti-personnel landmines.
The initiative was announced on X on Wednesday by Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert who is set to join the staff of MEP Mika Aaltola (NCP) in 2025.
Alongside Aaltola and Vanhanen, the authors of the initiative include ex-Minister of Defence Jussi Niinistö, ex-Commander of the Finnish Defence Forces Juhani Kaskeala and former diplomats Hannu Himanen, Jaakko Iloniemi and Pasi Patokallio. They argued that withdrawing from the agreement is warranted due to a substantial change in the security environment of Finland.
“A war instigated by Russia is raging in Europe, where Russia is ruthlessly using anti-personnel landmines against Ukraine. Today Finland is defending Nato’s longest land border with Russia. These are key changes also in regards to international treaty law,” the initiative reads.
The collection of signatures for the initiative will start on Independence Day, 6 December.
The initiative was announced as national debate about the re-introduction of anti-personnel landmines to the defence arsenal was heating up, in the wake of remarks by Janne Jaakkola, the commander of the Finnish Defence Forces and US President Joe Biden’s controversial decision to approve the supply of anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine in November.
“Joining to the convention and the substitute procurements reflected the global events of that time. Now the security environment is completely different,” Jaakkola said on MTV Uutisextra on Saturday.
The convention prohibiting the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of anti-personnel landmines was adopted because the weapons continue to kill and wound civilians and by-standers long after the conflict has ended. Since entering into force on 1 March 1999, the convention has led to a virtual halt in global production of anti-personnel mines and a drastic reduction in their deployment, according to the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs.
Finland signed the convention in 2012.
Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen (NCP) declined to comment on whether he was supportive of withdrawing from the convention in an interview with Helsingin Sanomat on Monday.
He added, though, that he asked the defence administration last summer to evaluate the need for anti-personnel landmines in light of lessons learnt from the war in Ukraine. The evaluation will be completed during the winter months and will be followed by a political debate not only within the ruling coalition, but also with the president and parliament.
The issue is therefore unlikely to feature in the defence policy report the government will present to parliament in December.
Häkkänen clarified to Helsingin Sanomat that the Finnish Defence Forces will evaluate the explosive device only from the perspective of national defence and security. Any questions about possible implications for foreign policy or international law, he added, should be weighed up by other arms of the administration.
“Finland has traditionally had the kind of geography – scattered lakes, narrow passages – that is very suitable and relevant for anti-personnel and anti-vehicle landmines. In Finland, mines have traditionally been a very effective defensive weapon. This is the basis for the evaluation,” he said.
Finland, he also insisted, has the expertise and technology to ensure anti-personnel mines do not cause any risk for civilians.
“First of all, Finland is the most responsible out of the world’s countries and, you could say, has the best expertise in laying mines,” he argued. “[The mines] are dangerous only for the party attacking the country.”
“
f we introduced [anti-personnel] landmines, it’d be absolutely certain that our mine-laying practice, which is the world’s most responsible, would rather be an example to others than a risk for civilians,” he reiterated.
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) stated to Iltalehti on Sunday similarly that the issue will be discussed by the ruling coalition, with the president and all parliamentary parties.
YLE on Monday revealed that the Centre, Christian Democrats, Finns Party and Movement Now are in favour of re-introducing anti-personnel landmines to the arsenal. Both the National Coalition, Social Democrats and Swedish People’s Party indicated that they are ready to consider and debate the issue, while the Left Alliance indicated that it would welcome the debate in the current geopolitical situation.
The Green League was the only party to strongly reject the idea of opting out of the Ottawa Convention.
“[Signing the convention] was an act that hurt national security and parliament has to undo it as soon as possible. Russia is our neighbour, and it’s behaving how it’s behaving,” Jani Mäkelä, the chairperson of the Finns Party Parliamentary Group, said to the public broadcasting company.
Aino-Kaisa Pekonen, the chairperson of the Left Alliance Parliamentary Group, reminded Helsingin Sanomat on Monday that withdrawing from the convention would be a significant change globally, adding that it would “certainly not be good” if Finland opted out as the only country in the EU.
“My thinking is that we can’t do this based on the shouting match that’s ongoing. This is a big and serious issue,” she said.
God save the Qween! Transport bosses apologise for misspelling hospital named after Queen Elizabeth on bus stop sign
Transport chiefs have had to apologise after misspelling a hospital named after Queen Elizabeth on a bus stop - with the word QWEEN!
The London Bus sign for the 380 and 486 buses in Charlton, south east London should say 'Queen Elizabeth Hospital' but it has instead spelt the title 'Qween' on both sides.
It sits next to a complex of modern flats, just a stone's throw from the historical landmark Charlton House and the red brick St Luke's Church - which dates back to the 11th Century.
Locals say the badly-spelt sign should be changed out of respect for the late Queen.
Local Judy Moore said: 'I think it's funny, and I can understand how it happened - but I'm not impressed.
The London Bus sign for the 380 and 486 buses in Charlton, south east London should say 'Queen Elizabeth Hospital' but it has instead spelt the title 'Qween' on both sides
Residents say the badly-spelt sign should be changed out of respect for the late Queen
'I think it should be changed, but I do think it's funny. though.'
In the past TFL has changed the names of stations for promotions including Bond Street to Burberry Street in London Fashion Week in 2023 and Old Street to Fold Street for Samsung.
But TfL chiefs have put their hands up to the mistake in Charlton.
A spokesperson for TFL, who looks after the bus network in the capital, said: 'We are looking to fix the typing error made on a bus stop in Charlton as soon as possible.
'We are sorry for any inconvenience caused to customers.'
Цитата:
Man wins £2 compensation from Mars bosses after finding completely-smooth chocolate bar
A man who was left shocked when he found a Mars bar without its signature ripple has been given £2 in compensation.
Earlier this month, Harry Seager, 34, bought the chocolate confectionery from a services in Thame while on his way to a classic car show in Birmingham.
However, when he opened the packet he noticed the lack of ripple believing it was a new 'cost-cutting measure'.
He posted a picture on the Dull Men's Club Facebook page and it received interest from thousands of members with some describing it as 'unsettling' and 'hideous'.
Mars Wrigley UK said the bar 'slipped' through its production line and confirmed the swirl was being kept.
The company has now given Mr Seager £2 in compensation for the trouble of finding the smooth Mars bar.
'The only reason I emailed [Mars] was because I was interested in what might have caused it to happen. That is all I wanted to know and they kept side-lining that question,' he told the BBC.
'I think £2 is great, it will be two free Mars bars. Maybe they could have sent me more but I'm not being ungrateful. I think it's amazing after everything that's happened that I got the £2 voucher.'
Harry Seager, 34, found a Mars bar with a lack of ripple believing it was a new 'cost-cutting measure'.
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Mars Wrigley UK have now given Mr Seager £2 in compensation after finding the smooth Mars bar
Mr Seager previously told Metro: ‘A lot of people in the know have said that the Mars bars are blown with air after being enrobed which creates the ripple on top.
‘There’s a possibility this one wasn’t blasted with that jet of air.’
A Mars Wrigley UK spokesperson said: 'Our chocolate scientists have been perfecting the Mars Bar and its iconic swirl on top for over 90 years.
With over 2.5 million Mars Bars produced daily at our Slough factory it seems this has slipped through without its signature flourish. marspressoffice@freud.com
'With over 2.5 million Mars Bars produced daily at our Slough factory it seems this has slipped through without its signature flourish!
'While we can't reveal all the secrets behind our product line, we can promise fans that these 'smooth' Mars Bars are a rare find and the classic swirl isn't going away!'
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С интересом и понятными ожиданиями, Dimitriy.
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Антитрендами наружной рекламы в текущем году стали прямолинейность и чрезмерная перегруженность сообщений. Наружная реклама продолжает показывать рост: число рекламных конструкций за последний год увеличилось более чем на 2 тысячи.
В компании Sellty спрогнозировали развитие рынка электронной коммерции в сегменте СМБ на ближайший год. По оценке основателя Sellty Марии Бар-Бирюковой, число собственных интернет-магазинов среднего, малого и микробизнеса продолжит расти и увеличится минимум на 40% до конца 2025 года. Компании будут и дальше развиваться на маркетплейсах, но станут чаще комбинировать несколько каналов продаж.
10 сентября – Всемирный день психического здоровья. Специально к этой дате компания HINT опросила коллег в сфере маркетинга, рекламы и пиара, чтобы понять, как представители этих профессий могут помочь себе и другим поддержать в норме психическое здоровье.
Как не ошибиться с выбором формата обучения и предстать перед будущим работодателем успешным специалистом. Директор по маркетингу ведущего IT-холдинга Fplus Ирина Васильева рассказала, на что теперь смотрят работодатели при приеме на работу, как нестандартно можно развиваться в профессии и стоит ли действующим маркетологам обучаться на онлайн-курсах.
Эксперты ЮKassa (сервис для приёма онлайн- и офлайн-платежей финтех-компании ЮMoney) и RetailCRM (решение для управления заказами и клиентскими данными) провели исследование* и выяснили, почему пользователи не завершают покупки в интернет-магазинах. По данным опроса, две трети респондентов хотя бы раз оставляли заказы незавершёнными, чаще всего это электроника и бытовая техника, одежда и товары для ремонта. Вернуться к брошенным корзинам многих мотивируют скидки, кэшбэк и промокоды.
Чего не хватает радио, чтобы увеличить свою долю на рекламном рынке? Аудиопиратство: угроза или возможности для отрасли? Каковы первые результаты общероссийской кампании по продвижению индустриального радиоплеера? Эти и другие вопросы были рассмотрены на конференции «Радио в глобальной медиаконкуренции», спикерами и участниками которой стали эксперты ГПМ Радио.
Деловая программа 28-й международной специализированной выставки технологий и услуг для производителей и заказчиков рекламы «Реклама-2021» открылась десятым юбилейным форумом «Матрица рекламы». Его организовали КВК «Империя» и «Экспоцентр».
28 марта в Центральном доме художника состоялась 25-ая выставка маркетинговых коммуникаций «Дизайн и реклама NEXT». Одним из самых ярких её событий стал День социальной рекламы, который организовала Ассоциация директоров по коммуникациям и корпоративным медиа России (АКМР) совместно с АНО «Лаборатория социальной рекламы» и оргкомитетом LIME.
На VII Международном форуме «Матрица рекламы», прошедшем в ЦВК «Экспоцентр» в рамках международной выставки «Реклама-2018», большой интерес у профессиональной аудитории вызвала VI Конференция «Интернет-реклама».
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